Quick Hits Week 5: Welcome to October

Posted on September 30, 2016 by Pat Coleman

Month No. 2, Week No. 5, and one big game right at the top of the Top 25 list to talk about this week. Our guest picker is Ray Biggs, who we think of more specifically as the managing editor of D3hockey.com, but whom also contributes to Kickoff on D3football.com and broadcasts Utica games on ESPN Utica Rome. (You’d have heard his voice twice this season already on Play of the Week highlights.) Westminster (Pa.) athletics photo by Jason Kapusta

— Pat Coleman

My Game of the Week for Week 5 is …

Keith’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater at No. 8 Platteville. Nowhere else has greater implications, especially if the Pioneers, who have only given up one garbage-time TD, win.	Ryan’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater at No. 8 Platteville. There’s just no question about the magnitude of this one.	Pat’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater at No. 8 Platteville. Gonna be a few like this this season. Here’s the first of the showdowns.
Adam’s take: No. 16 Thomas More at Westminster (Pa.). The loser of Whitewater at Platteville still has a very good chance at the playoffs. If the host Titans upset the Saints, the PAC race goes into disarray.	Frank’s take: No. 22 CNU at Rowan. This game could have major Pool C implications and help determine what path Wesley might have to make the playoffs.	Ray’s take: Cortland at Hartwick. Cortland’s offense should get back on track against a porous defense in a must-win. Hartwick can score like crazy.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 24 Central. Dubuque winning wouldn’t really be an upset, but Pat’s questions took up all the other possibilities.	Ryan’s take: No. 24 Central. The risk is always there when your opponent is 4-0.	Pat’s take: No. 24 Central. Barely an upset, but by the rankings, yes.
Adam’s take: No. 24 Central. Dubuque believes it should be in the Top 25 and will state its case with a road win.	Frank’s take: No. 16 Thomas More. Westminster (Pa.) has given up 16 points in three games, and hosts an inconsistent Thomas More team.	Ray’s take: No. 21 Hobart. Hobart has fought a bit against the run. They take on D3’s top rushing team, Merchant Marine.

Who gets a first dose of reality?

Keith’s take: Westminster (Pa.). This was one of the possibilities, but No. 16 Thomas More scored the first 45 points in their matchup last season.	Ryan’s take: St. Vincent. Though winning, they have’t been winning by enough to show they’re at Case’s level.	Pat’s take: Centre. Off to a great start at 4-0, the Colonels are heading to Hendrix, where the competition moves up a notch.
Adam’s take: St. Vincent. The 4-0 Bearcats have already equaled its 2014 and 2015 win totals. Case Western Reserve will remind St. Vincent what defeat feels like.	Frank’s take: Central. Central isn’t on my ballot yet; I’m waiting for this game vs. Dubuque to help me figure the Dutch out.	Ray’s take: Thomas More. (Call it a second dose.) Westminster (Pa.) should worry the Saints. The Titans play great defense, and keep drives alive on third down.

Which once-competitive rivalry goes off the rails?

Keith’s take: St. John’s at Bethel. Other possibilities include Trinity at Williams, Widener at Lycoming and Hampden-Sydney at Bridgewater.	Ryan’s take: F&M at Dickinson. It’s likely F&M will win the Conestoga Wagon Trophy in a landslide.	Pat’s take: Hampden-Sydney at Bridgewater. Once upon a time, this game was the centerpiece for the ODAC season. Now they’re a combined 1-5.
Adam’s take: F&M-Dickinson. F&M is eager for revenge after Dickinson won the Conestoga Wagon Trophy the past two seasons.	Frank’s take: Whitewater at Platteville. Something tells me the Warhawks are out to prove something this season, and Saturday’s game could be lopsided.	Ray’s take: RPI and Rochester. They’ve had some great battles recently, but this may be the year RPI runs away with one.

Which fading rivalry gets new life?

Keith’s take: Wartburg at Coe. The Kohawks are 4-0, and the Knights have only beaten D-III noobs.	Ryan’s take: CNU at Rowan. Few probably remember these two teams playing six years straight when CNU was in its infancy and Rowan was the Beast of the East.	Pat’s take: Rhodes at Sewanee. Rhodes has won this rivalry game nine times in the past 10 meetings, but this could be a year Sewanee gets one.
Adam’s take: Ohio Wesleyan and Denison. They are fierce rivals — in lacrosse, where both are usually ranked. The rivalry is not at the same level in football but OWU would love to hand the Big Red their first loss.	Frank’s take: Widener at Lycoming. This game doesn’t have the excitement that it used to, but both desperately need a win. Expect a shootout.	Ray’s take: McDaniel-Gettysburg. With McDaniel posting a win, and Gettysburg off to a tough start, this could be the best edition since a one-score game in 2011.

Who makes this week’s NJAC statement?

Keith’s take: Rowan. It promises to be a sloppy game in Glassboro, but that might suit the Profs fine vs. CNU.	Ryan’s take: Frostburg State. A loss here sends them and their record toward the wrong side of the NJAC tracks.	Pat’s take: Kean. I see the Cougars extending their win streak to four on Saturday vs. Frostburg.
Adam’s take: CNU. A convincing win at Rowan will prove that CNU belongs in the, uh, captain’s seat in the NJAC.	Frank’s take: Wesley. The statement will be the way they win at Southern Virginia, as they remind us they aren’t dead yet in the NJAC chase.	Ray’s take: CNU. Again. They’ve posted wins over two traditionally strong programs, but both have been slow out of the gate. Rowan presents another test.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks that were prescient, and those that were terribly off base.

Around the Nation Podcast: D-III pride

Posted on September 26, 2016 by Pat Coleman

There were a couple of big games and although we’ll spend a good amount of time talking about the St. Thomas-St. John’s game, that’s not all that went on this past Saturday. UW-Whitewater preserved Division III pride for a second consecutive year as the No. 2 Warhawks handled NAIA No. 2 Morningside, but the win didn’t come without questions. We hear from Whitewater coach Kevin Bullis, plus dive deep into the Mount Union quarterback rotation and more in this week’s podcast.

The Around the Nation Podcast is a weekly conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan covering the wide range of Division III football. It drops on Monday morning weekly throughout the season.

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Photo by Daryl Tessmann, d3photography.com
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Quick Hits for Week 3

Posted on September 16, 2016 by Pat Coleman

Sure, we’d all love to be in Hawaii, where Pacific is playing Occidental, but the D3football.com budget is really tight. We’re lucky to be able to send one person to Texas, but we really wouldn’t miss Linfield playing Mary Hardin-Baylor if at all possible. Our guest for this round of Quick Hits is Logan Hansen, a Wartburg grad who has a computer ratings system he uses to rank D-III teams and predict games. You can follow him at @LogHanRatings on Twitter. Photo by B. Scott Presley, d3photography.com

— Pat Coleman

Belton, Hawaii, or somewhere else?

Keith’s take: Hawaii, if D3football.com is paying. Otherwise, somewhere else. Like W&J/Thomas More.	Ryan’s take: Belton. I picked it as my game of the year in Kickoff.	Pat’s take: Belton. I leave for Austin on Friday morning. See you at the Mary Hardin-Baylor/Linfield game!
Adam’s take: Somewhere else. There’s a Top 25 matchup that is also a conference rivalry 25 minutes from my house. See you in Crestview Hills.	Frank’s take: Belton. I haven’t had an authentic breakfast burrito since the 2008 playoffs, and I’ve yet to get to see the new UMHB stadium.	Logan’s take: Des Moines. I have a friend’s wedding, otherwise Hawaii, because it’s Hawaii.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 15 Cortland. No. 9 North Central if you want someone not facing a Top 25 opponent.	Ryan’s take: No. 19 Huntingdon. Belhaven is proving to be tougher than I expected.	Pat’s take: No. 14 Delaware Valley. Of course, King’s is a lot less likely to sneak up on anyone now.
Adam’s take: Wesley. I’m not yet sold on the Wolverines, but I’m buying CNU, especially at home.	Frank’s take: No. 9 North Central vs. Illinois Wesleyan. Being on the road against a conference rival for the first D3 game is a challenge.	Logan’s take: No. 7 Wheaton at 25%. Because it’s too easy to pick Top 25 vs. Top 25 games.

St. Lawrence and Northwestern have allowed no points through two games. Who allows more on Saturday?

Keith’s take: Northwestern.	Ryan’s take: Northwestern, though both will get scored on at least a little.	Pat’s take: St. Lawrence. Endicott is 0-2, sure, but they’re the better opponent than who Northwestern is facing.
Adam’s take: Northwestern.	Frank’s take: Northwestern. St. Lawrence faces 0-2 Endicott, while Northwestern faces 1-0 Minnesota-Morris. It’s science.	Logan’s take: St. Lawrence. My model has St. Lawrence giving up a touchdown more.

If you were a bird, what kind of bird would you be?

Keith’s take: Isn’t that a Nelly Furtado song? I’d be a Seahawk. From Salve Regina.	Ryan’s take: A Sea Gull. Salisbury is riding a high, and that’ll carry over into NJAC play.	Pat’s take: An Owl. Well, a Prof, actually. It’s just that the Rowan Profs use an owl as their mascot. Home to William Paterson.
Adam’s take: A Blue Jay. Johns Hopkins can make a statement at home against a Moravian team that has been very impressive since the beginning of 2015.	Frank’s take: A purple macaw. I mean, that bird hasn’t had its feathers in a ruffle during many regular season games in 11 years…	Logan’s take: Anything but a Kohawk. Literally means “like the hawk,” as if that clears it up.

Who bounces back best from a noteworthy loss?

Keith’s take: St. Norbert.	Ryan’s take: Ohio Northern. No fourth-quarter collapses this time around.	Pat’s take: Hampden-Sydney. Although I must admit some trepidation because Ferrum is playing well.
Adam’s take: Albright gets into the win column and keeps its MAC hopes alive.	Frank’s take: Ohio Northern. It’s a survival game at Heidelberg, and the Utica loss taught the Polar Bears a lot about closing games out after starting strong.	Logan’s take: John Carroll. 19-point favorites vs. Baldwin Wallace after Week 1 loss to UW-Oshkosh.

Which future conference matchup will be most interesting this week?

Keith’s take: Catholic-Coast Guard.	Ryan’s take: Texas Lutheran at Louisiana College. Neither has beaten a D-III team yet this year and each needs a win — bad.	Pat’s take: Catholic-Coast Guard. Listeners to the last podcast know why. You should listen to the podcast!
Adam’s take: Ithaca at Hobart. Future Liberty League rivals (for now).	Frank’s take: Ithaca at Hobart. It’s under the lights, has some recent playoff history attached, and matches up teams that haven’t played to potential in 2016 — that part changes Saturday.	Logan’s take: Ithaca at Hobart. Ithaca’s D should keep this close, but they need to score somehow.