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ATN Podcast 174: Evaluating the surprise winners

We certainly spent some time talking about teams that have lost unexpectedly through the first two weeks: UW-Whitewater, St. Thomas, UW-Whitewater again, Thomas More to name a few. But in this week’s D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast, Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan turn their attention to the teams that won those surprise games, where they began the season, what we should have expected and how that expectation changes.

Pat and Keith run through all the top news, the hidden highlights, the risers and sliders, the quick hits and quick misses and more from the week in Division III football. Plus, Luke Ravenstahl is no longer mayor of Pittsburgh and Millikin last started 2-0 in 2012. If you listen to this week’s podcast, you’ll understand.

The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football. During the season, it hits your feed weekly on Monday morning. This week, we thank Fanraise for sponsoring our podcast.

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device. [display_podcast] Concordia-Moorhead athletics photo
You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast
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ATN Podcast: Talking Oshkosh, new conferences and more

Psst … it’s possible to have a D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast without Keith McMillan, as long as we have someone from Around the Nation to fill in. So this month, while Keith is unavailable on assignment, Pat Coleman will be joined by current ATN columnist Adam Turer to fill the big shoes.

This month there are plenty of teams shuffling conferences to talk about, plus Adam reveals who will be his preseason No. 1 team and talks about his sleeper teams for 2017. We also talk with UW-Oshkosh running back Dylan Hecker about the way the Titans’ season ended, their interesting offseason and more, plus we check in with Norwich coach Mark Murnyack about the Cadets’ new conference and renewing some old rivalries.

The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and (usually) Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football. It drops monthly in the offseason and during the season, weekly on Monday morning.

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device. [display_podcast] Norwich athletics photo; d3photography.com photo by Daryl Tessmann
You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast
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Quick Hits for Week 3

Sure, we’d all love to be in Hawaii, where Pacific is playing Occidental, but the D3football.com budget is really tight. We’re lucky to be able to send one person to Texas, but we really wouldn’t miss Linfield playing Mary Hardin-Baylor if at all possible. Our guest for this round of Quick Hits is Logan Hansen, a Wartburg grad who has a computer ratings system he uses to rank D-III teams and predict games. You can follow him at @LogHanRatings on Twitter. Photo by B. Scott Presley, d3photography.com

— Pat Coleman

Belton, Hawaii, or somewhere else?

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Keith’s take: Hawaii, if D3football.com is paying. Otherwise, somewhere else. Like W&J/Thomas More.
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Ryan’s take: Belton. I picked it as my game of the year in Kickoff.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Belton. I leave for Austin on Friday morning. See you at the Mary Hardin-Baylor/Linfield game!
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Somewhere else. There’s a Top 25 matchup that is also a conference rivalry 25 minutes from my house. See you in Crestview Hills.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Belton. I haven’t had an authentic breakfast burrito since the 2008 playoffs, and I’ve yet to get to see the new UMHB stadium.
Guest
Logan’s take: Des Moines. I have a friend’s wedding, otherwise Hawaii, because it’s Hawaii.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

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Keith’s take: No. 15 Cortland. No. 9 North Central if you want someone not facing a Top 25 opponent.
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Ryan’s take: No. 19 Huntingdon. Belhaven is proving to be tougher than I expected.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: No. 14 Delaware Valley. Of course, King’s is a lot less likely to sneak up on anyone now.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Wesley. I’m not yet sold on the Wolverines, but I’m buying CNU, especially at home.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: No. 9 North Central vs. Illinois Wesleyan. Being on the road against a conference rival for the first D3 game is a challenge.
Guest
Logan’s take: No. 7 Wheaton at 25%. Because it’s too easy to pick Top 25 vs. Top 25 games.

St. Lawrence and Northwestern have allowed no points through two games. Who allows more on Saturday?

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Keith’s take: Northwestern.
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Ryan’s take: Northwestern, though both will get scored on at least a little.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: St. Lawrence. Endicott is 0-2, sure, but they’re the better opponent than who Northwestern is facing.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Northwestern.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Northwestern. St. Lawrence faces 0-2 Endicott, while Northwestern faces 1-0 Minnesota-Morris. It’s science.
Guest
Logan’s take: St. Lawrence. My model has St. Lawrence giving up a touchdown more.

If you were a bird, what kind of bird would you be?

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Keith’s take: Isn’t that a Nelly Furtado song? I’d be a Seahawk. From Salve Regina.
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Ryan’s take: A Sea Gull. Salisbury is riding a high, and that’ll carry over into NJAC play.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: An Owl. Well, a Prof, actually. It’s just that the Rowan Profs use an owl as their mascot. Home to William Paterson.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: A Blue Jay. Johns Hopkins can make a statement at home against a Moravian team that has been very impressive since the beginning of 2015.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: A purple macaw. I mean, that bird hasn’t had its feathers in a ruffle during many regular season games in 11 years…
Guest
Logan’s take: Anything but a Kohawk. Literally means “like the hawk,” as if that clears it up.

Who bounces back best from a noteworthy loss?

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Keith’s take: St. Norbert.
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Ryan’s take: Ohio Northern. No fourth-quarter collapses this time around.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Hampden-Sydney. Although I must admit some trepidation because Ferrum is playing well.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Albright gets into the win column and keeps its MAC hopes alive.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Ohio Northern. It’s a survival game at Heidelberg, and the Utica loss taught the Polar Bears a lot about closing games out after starting strong.
Guest
Logan’s take: John Carroll. 19-point favorites vs. Baldwin Wallace after Week 1 loss to UW-Oshkosh.

Which future conference matchup will be most interesting this week?

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Keith’s take: Catholic-Coast Guard.
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Ryan’s take: Texas Lutheran at Louisiana College. Neither has beaten a D-III team yet this year and each needs a win — bad.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Catholic-Coast Guard. Listeners to the last podcast know why. You should listen to the podcast!
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Ithaca at Hobart. Future Liberty League rivals (for now).
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Ithaca at Hobart. It’s under the lights, has some recent playoff history attached, and matches up teams that haven’t played to potential in 2016 — that part changes Saturday.
Guest
Logan’s take: Ithaca at Hobart. Ithaca’s D should keep this close, but they need to score somehow.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks that were prescient, and those that were terribly off base.