Quick Hits Week 5: Quick hats

Posted on September 28, 2018 by Pat Coleman

Little Brass Bells will be ringing this week, in the eyes and ears of our panel. In a week of big games, that rivalry is the biggest for our panel.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is Gordon Mann, longtime contributor to D3football.com and editor at D3hoops.com who also broadcasts football games for Delaware Valley.

— Pat Coleman

What’s the game of the week?

Keith’s take: No. 21 Wheaton at No. 5 North Central. It’s a rivalry, there’s history, and if the Thunder win, a third team, Illinois Wesleyan, takes control of the CCIW.	Ryan’s take: No. 21 Wheaton at No. 5 North Central. The precedent is set. I can’t remember a year when this didn’t have major CCIW implications.	Pat’s take: No. 21 Wheaton at No. 5 North Central. It’s a bell, it’s made of brass, but it’s little so it kinda dings at a high pitch. Does an angel get its wings?
Adam’s take: No. 21 Wheaton at No. 5 North Central. This is the biggest test of the season for both teams and North Central’s best chance to prove itself as a worthy Stagg Bowl contender this year.	Frank’s take: No. 22 Delaware Valley at Stevenson. This game will help define the upper end of the MAC while providing the first test to the Aggies since Wesley.	Gordon’s take: No. 21 Wheaton at No. 5 North Central.This game shapes the CCIW race and part of the playoff bracket. The Thunder’s storm-aided victory last year ups the drama.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 18 Case Western Reserve. Spartans wore Westminster (Pa.) out last year, but casts have changed.	Ryan’s take: No. 22 Delaware Valley. The Aggies aren’t on my ballot and haven’t been consistent enough to give me much confidence.	Pat’s take: No. 22 Delaware Valley. Nobody will emerge unscathed in the MAC this season.
Adam’s take: No. 22 Delaware Valley. The MAC has already been a surprise this season, with Lycoming and Misericordia tied atop the conference standings with Del Val and Stevenson.	Frank’s take: No. 8 Hardin-Simmons. Two prolific offenses. One team looking ahead to No. 2. Give this one to ETBU in a shocking shootout.	Gordon’s take: No. 24 Franklin & Marshall. Lots of Pennsylvania possibilities here. Let’s go Muhlenberg dumping the Diplomats in a nail-biter.

Pick a road team to win impressively.

Keith’s take: Ohio Northern. The Polar Bears and Marietta Pioneers are each undefeated, but there is usually some distance between these programs.	Ryan’s take: Williams. This week is big against Trinity. And I like that the Ephs have shaken off the ugly parts of the early 2010s.	Pat’s take: Huntingdon. Also a good pick for the final question, the Hawks have frustrations to work out at Methodist.
Adam’s take: Rhodes. I agree with this week’s front page poll that Millsaps is one of the most surprising 4-0 teams. A Lynx win on the road over the Majors qualifies.	Frank’s take: Thomas More. The Saints will win very big — the ones traveling a distance to NY — as St. Lawrence QB Grochot was in concussion protocol.	Gordon’s take: No. 16 Trine. The other Thunder start MIAA play with a win at Hope, keeping the Flying Dutchmen as runners-up for a little while longer.

Choose a team to beat someone it lost to last season.

Keith’s take: FDU-Florham. Albright hung 51 on the Devils in 2017, and this is their best chance to shake off an 0-4 start. FDU might get to 4-1 instead.	Ryan’s take: N.C. Wesleyan. The Bishops have had a long stretch off before this week against LaGrange.	Pat’s take: Central. Getting upset by Buena Vista had to sting last year. Won’t happen this time.
Adam’s take: FDU-Florham. As I stated earlier, the MAC is wide open this year. Albright’s tailspin continues as the Devils continue the program’s most impressive start in over a decade.	Frank’s take: SUNY-Maritime. Thomas Wright has thrown for 10 TDs and just 1 INT for the Privateers and needs that efficiency to win vs. Husson.	Gordon’s take: FDU-Florham. We’re contractually obligated to mention the Devils in Quick Hits now. They avenge last year’s 51-33 home loss to Albright.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Dubuque at Loras. It’s not the best cross-town rivalry game in Week 5, but the Duhawks are coming off two wins and hosting in a renovated Rock Bowl.	Ryan’s take: Linfield at Whitworth; F&M at Muhlenberg; or Case at Westminister. If my fellow panelists missed any of these, that’s my pick. All great matchups!.	Pat’s take: My burn sat rare font bud ships. Listen to today’s podcast if you need a translation.
Adam’s take: Randolph-Macon at Washington & Lee. Not just because my alma mater is playing a huge conference game and its home opener. These two teams have had a combined 38-day layoff since their last game.	Frank’s take: Occidental at Cal Lutheran. The Kingsmen are surprisingly 1-2 right now. They should beat an undermanned Oxy, but it could be close.	Gordon’s take: Trinity at Williams.K-Mack loves him some NESCAC, but I have more personal interest in this one than others on the panel. Go Bants!

Which of the 49 winless teams leaves the field happy for the first time this season?

Keith’s take: Maryville, vs. Brevard. The Scots have scored just 9 points this season, but they’ve faced playoff-caliber teams in Berry and Centre.	Ryan’s take: Crown. It’s a pick of the winless teams as they face off against Iowa Wesleyan.	Pat’s take: Benedictine. Conference play begins in the NACC and CUW is a good starting point.
Adam’s take: Lakeland. The Muskies finally figure out their offense in the post-Michael Whitley world. The grueling non-conference slate pays off against Concordia-Chicago.	Frank’s take: Gallaudet. The Bison last played on Sept. 8. Anna Maria is averaging 7 points per game. Advantage to a rested Bison squad.	Gordon’s take: Illinois College. The Blueboys feel better after a home win over Beloit on Saturday night.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.

Quick Hits Week 4: Unleashing the Cougars

Posted on September 21, 2018 by Pat Coleman

The crew is picking the Cougars to make some noise this week, as well as the Colonels, while everyone has their eyes on the clash in the OAC. Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is Greg Thomas, Wabash fan and regular D3football.com contributor.

— Pat Coleman

Photo: Centre athletics photo of Andre Evans and Luc Gendreau by Cheyenne Bunner

Which game is the Week 4 game of the week?

Keith’s take: No. 15 John Carroll at No. 1 Mount Union. More on the line in SAA, CCIW & CC, more talent here. Ninety and 110 points over two games, so best D wins.	Ryan’s take: No. 15 John Carroll at No. 1 Mount Union. I think JCU is a bit high in the poll, but I’m game to be proven wrong.	Pat’s take: No. 15 John Carroll at No. 1 Mount Union. As said on the podcast, only wish it were later in the season.
Adam’s take: No. 15 John Carroll at No. 1 Mount Union. The only game between ranked opponents; a heated rivalry between the two best teams in one of the nation’s best conferences.	Frank’s take: No. 15 John Carroll at No. 1 Mount Union. No way to buck the trend here, even if voters have JCU higher than I do (20). To me, Mount Union punches its playoff ticket with a win here.	Greg’s take: No. 15 John Carroll at No. 1 Mount Union.It isn’t too early to call this a de facto OAC championship game. The Streaks pose the last legitimate threat to Mount Union until late November.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 24 Franklin & Marshall. If the Diplomats survive Susquehanna, they’ve got Muhlenberg and Johns Hopkins next.	Ryan’s take: No. 22 Wheaton. Millikin has been my sleeper team since the preseason. Here’s their first big test.	Pat’s take: No. 20 RPI. There’s less of a chance for any losses this week, but Keith shamed me into having to pick someone.
Adam’s take: No. 17 Berry. The Vikings keep proving me wrong, but a road game at Centre is yet another stiff SAA test. Win this, and I won’t pick against them again.	Frank’s take: No. 17 Berry. Centre has been beating opponents handily, but Berry has not for the last two weeks. At Centre, this almost feels like a “gimme.”	Greg’s take: No. 17 Berry. Centre is red-hot and the Vikings are going on the road to play under the lights. This one has upset warning signs all over the place.

Who will allow more points this week than they have all season? (NESCAC excluded)

Keith’s take: Augustana. IWU put up 31 on UW-La Crosse and 24 on Wheaton, so I think they can surpass 7 here.	Ryan’s take: Belhaven. The Blazers haven’t yet faced an opponent as skilled at finding the end zone as ETBU.	Pat’s take: Grinnell. With 20 points allowed in two games, the Pioneers travel to St. Norbert.
Adam’s take: Augustana. The Vikings have allowed just seven points, but face IWU, which has averaged 27.5 points per game against stiff competition.	Frank’s take: Texas Lutheran. 14 points in two games. And then UMHB comes to town, having scored 159 points to two games. Actually, this is the “gimme” pick.	Greg’s take: Texas Lutheran. The question here is really when UMHB eclipses TLU’s season points allowed total of 14. I say by the end of the first quarter.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Albright at Widener. Teams that haven’t been so low as .500 since 2010 come in each 0-3. Somebody wins.	Ryan’s take: Carthage at Washington U. Last week was tough, but I’d like to see how the Bears perform in Game 2 of their new conference.	Pat’s take: Dean vs. Becker. Dean isn’t eligible for the playoffs yet, but their 0-3 is better than Becker’s 0-3.
Adam’s take: Augsburg at St. Olaf. The Oles could improve to 4-0, equaling last year’s win total. The program won just six games total from 2013 through 2016.	Frank’s take: Lycoming at FDU-Florham. In fact, I’ll be in attendance. Hear more about this game from me in today’s ATN Podcast.	Greg’s take: Carthage at Washington U. After a respectable CCIW debut against North Central, I’m curious to see if the Bears can get a league win against a team that took UW-Oshkosh to the wire.

Neither Kean nor Minnesota-Morris has scored this season. Who will score more this week?

Keith’s take: Minnesota-Morris. It’s a coin flip. Both Cougars offenses might get right against an 0-3 opponent this week.	Ryan’s take: Kean. The Cougars’ first two opponents were much tougher than Southern Virginia will prove to be.	Pat’s take: Kean. I wrote this question to have no easy answer and then spent way too long trying to pick a set of Cougars.
Adam’s take: Kean. Southern Virginia is 0-3 and has allowed 27.3 ppg. The Cougars will finally get on the scoreboard and maybe even the win column.	Frank’s take: Kean. But this may be by a whisker, with both playing winless teams.	Greg’s take: Kean. This question is for the really serious D-III die-hards.

Which unlikely 3-0 team falls to 3-1 this week?

Keith’s take: Millsaps. Against 2-1 Sewanee. Even the “surprise” 3-0 teams (Marietta, Kalamazoo, St. Olaf) weren’t “unlikely,” so it was either this or Rowan.	Ryan’s take: Rowan. Against a ranked team like Frostburg, the Profs will fall.	Pat’s take: Marietta. The stadium might not be underwater but ONU will slow right by the Pioneers.
Adam’s take: Rowan. The Profs have to face No. 6 Frostburg State on the road. The Bobcats will be hungry to get back to dominating opponents.	Frank’s take: Ursinus. After Moravian was side-swiped by Johns Hopkins, the Greyhounds will race circles around Ursinus on Saturday.	Greg’s take: FDU-Florham. A surprise leader of the MAC, the Devils’ bid to go 4-0 for the first time since 1988 (yes I did Google that) gets denied by Lycoming.

Quick Hits Week 3: Please stay

Posted on September 14, 2018 by Pat Coleman

It’s been such a long week in Division III football, but game day is finally here. (Apologies to Guilford, Catholic and Randolph-Macon.) Our regular crew for picking games is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot goes to a guest each week, and this week’s is broadcaster and longtime friend of the site John McGraw, who is broadcasting Hamilton football this weekend.

— Pat Coleman

Photo: Defensive lineman Mike Williams for W&J, by Martin Santek Photography

Which game is the Week 3 game of the week?

Keith’s take: Redlands at No. 11 Linfield. The Bulldogs’ second trip to the Pacific NW could prevent a third in the postseason.	Ryan’s take: No. 12 Wheaton at Illinois Wesleyan. Last year, IWU’s win shook up the conference race — and perceptions — big time.	Pat’s take: Carnegie Mellon at No. 15 W&J. Lots of quality games this week — I like that this is the first solid test for each of these teams.
Adam’s take: No. 18 Berry at Rhodes. The SAA has impressed in non-conference play and the Lynx could serve notice that this race is wide open.	Frank’s take: Redlands at No. 11 Linfield. Was Linfield’s loss to a middling NAIA team a fluke, or are the Wildcats taking a step backward? Playing 2-0 Redlands could help answer this.	John’s take: No. 12 Wheaton at Illinois Wesleyan.Two of the preseason favorites in the CCIW not named North Central go head-to-head under the lights.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 6 Frostburg seems upset that its home game vs. CNU is canceled. (And Rhodes could beat No. 18 Berry).	Ryan’s take: No. 6 Frostburg State. They, along with CNU, are “upset” that they won’t be playing on Saturday.	Pat’s take: No. 21 RPI. Going to take a flier here vs. Utica. If nothing else, really think Ithaca should be ranked from LL, not RPI.
Adam’s take: No. 18 Berry. Rhodes dual-threat quarterback PJ Settles has accounted for 524 yards through two games while the Lynx defense has held opponents to 448 yards.	Frank’s take: No. 25 Springfield. The teams have split their last ten matchups with five wins apiece. Union’s air attack looks legit, so it’s a real test for the Pride on both sides of the ball.	John’s take: No. 16 UW-Platteville. Started slow in week 1 against ETBU. Another slow start could doom them against TMC.

Pick a home team to win a NESCAC game.

Keith’s take: Wesleyan. Hosting Middlebury, the Cardinals are the only team Kickoff ’18 picked to finish top half of NESCAC that’s home.	Ryan’s take: Hamilton. Even if I’m wrong, with the starters returning for both Hamilton and Tufts, this should be a good one.	Pat’s take: Hamilton. Wesleyan is the “easy pick” but I am taking a flier on Dave Murray moving the needle in his fifth year in charge.
Adam’s take: Wesleyan. The Cardinals’ fourth quarter rally came up short at Middlebury last year. The home team gets revenge to open the 2018 season.	Frank’s take: Wesleyan. The home team won last year, 30-27. Flip the script for Wesleyan’s hosting duties this year.	John’s take: Hamilton. While Tufts has one of the stronger offenses in the NESCAC behind dual-threat QB Ryan McDonald, the Jumbos have holes to fill on defense.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: Maine Maritime at Mass. Maritime. The 46th Admiral’s Cup features teams that lost openers by four scores (or, by 28 and 30).	Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg at Susquehanna. The River Hawks are the newest entries on my ballot, and this is another stiff test.	Pat’s take: McMurry at Howard Payne. Teams have lost by a combined score of 116-9 so far and interested to see them face more even matches.
Adam’s take: Southwestern at East Texas Baptist. Y’all like offense? These offenses have collectively averaged 41 points per game. Expect a speedy back-and-forth shootout.	Frank’s take: Merchant Marine at SUNY-Maritime. The Privateers have won by an average of 29 points, but this is a rivalry game. And USMMA coach Mike Toop won the Internet leading up to it.	John’s take: Ithaca at Alfred. Ithaca held Brockport to 13 and came within one score of the Golden Eagles last weekend after rolling past St. Vincent in its opener. How good are the Bombers?

Predict a final score in the Willamette-Occidental game.

Keith’s take: 45-21, Willamette.	Ryan’s take: 42-7, Willamette.	Pat’s take: 41-12, Willamette.
Adam’s take: 34-13, Willamette.	Frank’s take: 31-24, Occidental. You heard it here first.	John’s take: 24-10, Willamette.

The sixth question is intentionally left blank in memory of Evan Hansen.

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