Triple Take: First-round scores

Rob Kues
In a battle of two run-oriented teams, Thomas More’s Rob Kues has nonetheless completed more passes than Washington and Lee has even attempted.

The NCAA brass has gotten out its erasers and given 32 teams a clean slate.

Our expectations are put to the ultimate tests as champions and runners-up of top conferences clash with those of their weaker counterparts. We see where the parities and disparities lie — within geographic reason, of course.

And no season is without its Cinderella stories: Johns Hopkins in 2009, Franklin in ’08, Bethel in ’07, etc. It’s the unexpected — the flashes of greatness that players show during playoff time — that captivates us. Every year, we keep our ears to the ground hoping to hear yet another underdog make some noise.

From now until the third weekend in December, Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps will not only pick the winners of games, but we’ll also project the scores. It’s a transparent test of our perceptions week in and week out.

These postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of outcome vs. expectations.

Wesley Bracket
Ryan: Wesley 30, Muhlenberg 7
Pat: Wesley 42, Muhlenberg 10
Keith: Wesley 37, Muhlenberg 10

Ryan: Hampden-Sydney 21, Montclair State 17
Pat: Hampden-Sydney 28, Montclair State 10
Keith: Hampden-Sydney 17, Montclair State 14

Ryan: Washington and Lee 31, Thomas More 24
Pat: Thomas More 45, Washington and Lee 42
Keith: Washington and Lee 26, Thomas More 23

Ryan: Mary Hardin-Baylor 45, Christopher Newport 21
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 56, Christopher Newport 14
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Christopher Newport 7

St. Thomas Bracket
Ryan: St. Thomas 48, Benedictine 10
Pat: St. Thomas 61, Benedictine 7
Keith: St. Thomas 49, Benedictine 0

Ryan: Linfield 35, Cal Lutheran 24
Pat: Linfield 35, Cal Lutheran 24
Keith: Linfield 34, Cal Lutheran 27

Ryan: Wartburg 20, Bethel 17
Pat: Bethel 13, Wartburg 10
Keith: Wartburg 14, Bethel 13

Ryan: Coe 38, Wheaton 34
Pat: Wheaton 34, Coe 30
Keith: Wheaton 27, Coe 24

Mount Union Bracket
Ryan: Mount Union 56, St. Lawrence 3
Pat: Mount Union 63, St. Lawrence 0
Keith: Mount Union 63, St. Lawrence 0

Ryan: Delaware Valley 20, Salisbury 14
Pat: Salisbury 45, Delaware Valley 42
Keith: Salisbury 22, Delaware Valley 21

Ryan: SUNY-Maritime 28, Alfred 21
Pat: Alfred 31, SUNY-Maritime 8
Keith: Alfred 28, SUNY-Maritime 21

Ryan: Cortland State 38, Endicott 7
Pat: Cortland State 20, Endicott 3
Keith: Cortland State 27, Endicott 9

North Central Bracket
Ryan: North Central 42, St. Norbert 13
Pat: North Central 45, St. Norbert 10
Keith: North Central 44, St. Norbert 17

Ryan: Ohio Northern 23, Wittenberg 14
Pat: Ohio Northern 41, Wittenberg 21
Keith: Ohio Northern 27, Wittenberg 17

Ryan: Trine 35, DePauw 20
Pat: DePauw 21, Trine 17
Keith: Trine 35, DePauw 21

Ryan: UW-Whitewater 48, Franklin 14
Pat: UW-Whitewater 50, Franklin 21
Keith: UW-Whitewater 45, Franklin 13

11 thoughts on “Triple Take: First-round scores

  1. So we have split decisions on the following games: W&L/Thomas More, Bethel/Wartburg, Coe/Wheaton, SUNY-Maritime/Alfred, Salisbury/Delaware Valley, DePauw/Trine.

    This alone is a good indicator of how competitive we think the games are going to be.

    The score predictions should be read for three things, at least in my mind.

    1) Who do we think will win?
    2) Will the score be close?
    3) Is it a high-scoring or low-scoring game?

    Or, of course, somewhere in between.

    So, hypothetically, let’s say I had picked Wartburg to win by the 13-10 score I picked them to lose by. That would make it a unanimous Wartburg pick, but all close, low-scoring games. You could look at that and say, wow, they don’t give us (Bethel) any chance to win. But frankly, that’s bull — all of us would think Bethel is in the game and has a chance to win. Just make sure to look at the margin of victory.

  2. This marks the second year in a row where we have consensus on just 10 of the 16 picks. Pat and I are each the odd man out on picks three times — Keith didn’t break ranks once. 🙂

    Prior to 2009: There was consensus on 13 games in ’08 and 12 games in ’07.

  3. Ah, Pat, looks like we were typing at the same time.

    What you said is a good explaination of how to interpret the picks.

  4. There are some close games in the first round (particularly the 4/5 games as it should be):

    While I haven’t predicted the scores, mine are as follows:

    Wesley Bracket

    Wesley, Montclair St, Thomas More, Mary Hardin-Baylor

    St. Thomas bracket:

    St. Thomas, Linfield, Bethel, Wheaton

    Mount Union Bracket:

    Mount Union, Delaware Valley, Alfred, Cortland St.

    North Central Bracket:

    North Central, Ohio Northern, DePauw, UW-Whitewater

    Good luck to all the teams this weekend!

  5. My thinking on the Thomas More/W&L game was that we’d be in for a Springfield/St. John Fisher style shootout, high scoring game. W&L just seems to be firing on all cylinders right now. That’s how I ended up at that score.

  6. Wow, I am surprised that all three of you picked Wittenberg to lose. Also, the Wesley game is going to be closer than the expert think…Only time will tell. Should be a good Saturday

  7. Mille: I looked at Muhlenberg losing to Del Val and Del Val losing to Wesley even though Wesley turned it over six times. I know both of those games were early in the season, but I don’t think that game is close.

  8. Surprised all three went against Montclair (a team you guys even wrote was a missed FG away from being a #1 seed), especially given their defense is so highly ranked.

    Speaking of that defense, they are still shutting out HSC half way thru the 3rd qtr…

  9. Upsets & Surprises (judging from these picks):

    Montclair State over Hampden Sydney – all 3 picks had HSU
    Thomas More over W & L – 2 picked W & L, none saw the blowout coming.
    Bethel over Wartburg – 2 picked Wart, but all had it very close.
    DV over Salisbury – 2 picked S, again all had it close.
    Alfred over SUNY-Maritime – 2 picked AU, but who saw the blowout coming??

    Thomas More and Alfred have to be the most surprising right? Those scores jumped off the page at me anyway.

    The picks only get tougher from here on out!

  10. Hazz,
    I think you’re looking at these right, that even the ones we picked the wrong team on, if we had it as a toss-up and in fact it was a toss-up, we weren’t so far off.

    I was way off on Thomas More and Alfred winning by 60. Thought scrappy might help Maritime more.

    Also, a little note. H-SC = Hampden-Sydney. HSU = Hardin-Simmons.

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