44 thoughts on “Triple-take: Picking second-round games”

1. Gosh Pat and Keith….no real ‘take chances’ games this week?

   Didn’t know about Schaeuble but going out on a limb just to make things interesting cause we all can’t agree…so here goes

   Wabash definitely over Case but lets say 35-14
   Wis-Whitewater over N-Central by 38-20…NC can’t get on field as WI-WW runs up and down field
   Wesley (I think they’re really, reall good) 42-Muhlenberg 21
   St. John Fisher bounces Curry big 35-14
   Mary-Hardin Baylor buries NC Wesleyan 45-14…sorry NCWGary
   Wow—I’m surprised by your Mount spreads, I thought TCNJ was suppose to be better….I’ll say closer Mount 32-TCNJ 21 (gosh I hope TCNJ can throw cause they’ll score if they can)
   OK here is where we differ:
   Upset-Upset-Upset…WI-Eau Claire 21 Bethel 20
   2nd Supposed Upset….St. John’s 24 Central 17

   Thats my guesses from Ole’ Touchdown

2. pat, are the picks incorrect as listed or your regret comment. both of you picked central to win against st. johns. just for fun i will pickem also.

   only game that matters to me, wesley over muhlenberg
   wabash over case
   uww over ncc
   st john fisher over curry
   umhb over uncw
   mount over tcnj
   bethel over uwec
   st johns over central

   good luck to all the teams tomorrow. to the fans of each team, remember to cheer for your team not against the other one. if you are traveling, be safe and enjoy the game. we had fun traveling with the team this year, but i am sure glad that i only have to drive about an hour this weekend to see the wolverines play. thanks to d3.com for all your hard work.

3. Touchdown — read our front page story on UWEC. 🙂

   wesleydad, no those are our picks. I misspoke in the regrets section.

4. Should be interesting when the NWC posters get a look at that front page story.

5. well, we’re down to the sweet sixteen (as they would say in D-1 Basketball). Its been fun so far, with only a couple of upsets. The same should be this week, as St. Johns will probably “upset” Central. Being an MHB fan, i’m honestly nervous about UNCW coming to Belton. We don’t have a very good pass defense, and losing Josh Kubiac from last year’s team really hurts us. But, having one of the best rushing defenses in the nation (last week, we held Trinity to -45 rushing yards) not to mention 2 of the best running backs in the country (Jarvis Thrasher and Quincy Daniels), we are a force to be reckoned with. With that, here are my picks

   Wesley over Muhlenberg (28-14)
   Wabash over Case Western (35-21)
   Whitewater over North Central (17-7)
   S.J. Fisher over Curry (28-10)
   UMHB over N.C. Wesleyan (45-27)
   Mount Union over TCNJ (45-7)
   Bethel over UWEC (30-13)
   St. Johns over Central (27-20)

6. Hey Pat—Check back to yesterday, I’m still lookin for you to reply…ala…losing late in the season hurts you in the polls…just as anyone in the #2 spot in the BCS poll would tell ya

   As I read through all the info on Front page (as suggested)–the Eau Claire win would most probably truly be an upset–but what the heck, the Wisconsin league is tough and tough teams with good “D’s” last longer in the play-offs–anything different makes it interesting, right?

   Go Wesley & UMHB–I want a great, great game next week

7. Oh yea—almost forgot…Go Mount Union and St. John Fisher, that should be another great, great game

   Whitewater is on cruise to the semi’s then rematch with Wesley or UMHB could be interesting,,however, yes Pat I remember…UMHB had a chance before and got ‘blown out”

   Crystal Ball in week 5 says: its sure lookin like Whitewater vs. Mount Union #3 in Salem…which means Mount Triple-Repeats…an absolute dynasty….

8. Going to be a great football weekend, for sure…
   Here’s my picks (which don’t seem to differ too much from you guys)…

   MUC 46, New Jersey 21…
   Saint John Fisher 34, Curry 13…

   Here’s my upset… The Johnnies 28, Central 24…
   Bethel 27, UW-Eau Claire 14

   Mary Hardin-Baylor 38, N.C. Wesleyan 17
   Wesley 21, Muhlenberg 13

   UW-Whitewater 46, North Central 24
   Wabash 21, Case 14

9. Hey Pat…things are slow today cause I’m done shoppin so lets start some controversy…

   Lets examine your end of year poll as opposed to the 32 team NCAA field and see whats happened…

   Picks 1-6 are most probably the best 6 teams in the country, they all have a chance to get to the quarters or semi’s

   #7 the W&J loss threw you all for a loop…gotta admit I didn’t see that one coming, a #1 seed in the south losing to #8 seed…wow ….going for 2 from PAT formation is almost as crazy as fake punting on your own 5 yard line with the game just underway—are you kiddin me!!!

   #8-9 ok

   #10–you all missed here according to the NCAA…

   #11–ok, Trinity got beat by #5 UMHB…too bad they got matched up so early

   #12-13 ok

   #14 Capital was strugglin to stay alive after lost to Mount Union and their QB, barely beat terrible 0-10 Muskingum–got beat by #2 WI-WW but still ranked too high, maybe WI-WW is not as good…nah Capital is well coached and played their butts off

   #15 Wartburg–didn’t get in…possible mistake by NCAA, we’ll never know

   #16 Franklin beaten by #20 North Central in what I hear was a great, great game….probably a toss up

   #17 hey–Eau Claire beats # 24 St Norbert, as it should

   #18 Whitworth—you’ve got them rated ahead of Redlands-who beat them head-to-head….you missed here

   #19 ok–Redlands but the SCIAC is like the HCAC…weak and almost always one and done…Redlands was probably too high

   #20 see #16…North Central got an upset yes, toss up yes…guess you gotta remember the HCAC has only won one play-off game out of 11…weak league

   #21 TCNJ—ok

   #22 Way over rated…Wheaton loses their last two games of the year..a collapse and yet you still have them in–they didn’t deserve to get in….too high

   #23 St. Olaf–don’t know much other than I think their only two losses were to Bethel and St. John’s..not bad company…OK

   #24 and #25 St. Norbert and Case Western Reserve….undefeated but you probably got these right as St. Norbert is one and done and Case goes out this weekend after playing a weak Widener team

   Now there are those AQ’s that weren’t ranked that got play-off wins (NC Wesleyan and Curry) couldn’t have predicted those…and then the Pool B’s (2 out of 3 survived but all 3 ranked) and finally the Pool C’s (4 of 7 survive–I think Capital and Ithaca played tough but lost, MSJ (weak HCAC again) is out quickly for the 3rd or 4th straight year

   So overall–not bad guys, a couple mistakes but I’m guessing you and the NCAA guys are darn close on the final 8…maybe even the final 4…Ole’ Touchdown says “be safe and have great games to all teams”

10. The WIAC will prevail against Bethel – Blugolds simply stronger. SJU vs Central depends which SJU team shows up. I think some of the players have their mind somewhere other than football, maybe life after graduation.

11. Interesting — you seem very very focused on end-of-season performance, which isn’t officially part of the playoff selection criteria. Why is that?

    And you give no weight to the home field? You have no concept of No. 13 potentially being favored at home against No. 10? Rankings work when games are played on a neutral field, but when one team is on its home field you must account for that. No chance that a team could improve from September to November (referring to Whitworth here, btw)? Interesting, too, that you say we have Whitworth/Redlands unequivocally wrong, but no mention that Redlands is ahead of Occidental.

    Wheaton at 22 is fair. Though, I should note, lower than North Central, which in your book is automatically wrong. 🙂

    “Now there are those AQ’s that weren’t ranked that got play-off wins (NC Wesleyan and Curry) couldn’t have predicted those” … au contraire: Curry got 15 votes and Hartwick 6, plus Curry had the home field. Poll nails that.

12. Pat—where to start–where to start!!!

    Unless I am missing something..didn’t Occidental lose two SCIAC games including the last game to Whittier that handed the AQ to Redlands only one loss (yes it was to Occy but not two)…hmm thought so

    Wheaton should be lower than North Central because North Central won the AQ by losing only one game in conference (yes it was to NC but they didn’t lose 2)…is this a deja vu as to explanation above?…Illinois Wesleyan (I see they got a few votes) beat NC in the last game of the regular season…I’m saying Wheaton lost the last two games of the year, they had the AQ in their grasp and gave it up…any other poll in the country and you lose to two teams on consecutive weekends with 7-3 records means you disappear

    Oh yea Pat–go on the NCAA website and pull up the D-III football championship criteria…I believe you will see end of season record as information to use

    Got me on the Curry votes, can’t fight you there. Don’t know that much about far eastern D-III football but it was my understanding the NESCAC (whatever) was not good football…we’ll see this weekend

    And finally the homefield advantage thing—now I can’t find that anywhere, is it part of the BCS poll?…you bet I agree homefield helps, but if you’re going to be one of the top teams you have to win on the road, losing home or away usually kicks you in the rear end…thats the way its always been and always will be

13. Here are my picks for round 2.

    Wesley over Muhlenberg (28-21) – Competitive
    Wabash over Case Western (35-21)
    Whitewater over North Central (35-7)
    S.J. Fisher over Curry (21-10)
    UMHB over N.C.Wesleyan(42-32)-NCW is a top 10 team-just playing a top 5 here
    Mount Union over TCNJ (55-7) Making up for a disappointing game last week
    UWEC over Bethel (28-24) The WAIC is just that good
    Central over St. John (27-20)

    *If NCWC wins, they will advance the Semi-Finals against UW-WW.

14. Mules over Wesley 30-24 (that’s my boys)
    Mary Hardin over NCW 38-30
    St John Fisher over Curry 27-14
    Mt Union over TCNJ 49-10
    Whitewater overNorth Central 24-17
    Wabash over Case Western Reserve 38-20
    UWEC over Bethel 28-14
    St John over Central 24-21

    GOOD LUCK, GOD BLESS AND MAY THE BEST TEAMS WIN. THANKS D3.

15. Touchdown….re: your last post.

    First off, it’s tough to take a critique seriously when the criticism comes from someone who admits he doesn’t “know that much about far eastern D-III football.” The glaring error: Curry comes from the NEFC Boyd, not the NESCAC (which doesn’t play in the postseason). That kind of stuff undercuts the validity of your argument.

    Also, you say: “And finally the homefield advantage thing—now I can’t find that anywhere, is it part of the BCS poll?” Straight-up glaring fact: This isn’t the BCS. Let’s not suggest that the way they clutter up their world should in any way affect the way we handle ours.

    The D3football poll is based, as Pat said, on how two teams would match up on a neutral field. Because the playoffs do not take place on a neutral field, then the results of the playoff games can not be unanimously used to measure that one team would be higher in the poll than the other.

    Finally, regarding Wheaton disappearing from the polls. Looking across the country, how many 8-2 teams are floating out around there? Very few. Of course, any team that has gone 8-2 (even with those losses coming in the final weeks) is going to be heavily in the Top 25 radar. There were, what, only two 8-2 teams that weren’t in the Top 25? Seems like I’m comfortable with Wheaton still being ranked, especially considering the tough conference they come from. Having them disappear from sight would have been wrong.

    Your soapbox may be starting to wobble.

16. I love how everyone is picking Wesley just like they picked Salisbury last week. The Mules were up 21-6 early in the 2nd quarter, and actually had an unsuccessful fake FG from the 2 that would have put them up 24-6 if they would have taken the points. Isn’t this the same Salisbury team that gave Wesley everything they could handle?

17. Mule66:

    No, not really.

18. OK, for a second, i want to switch the focus a little bit. Being thanksgiving and all, i’d like to publicly give thanks for what d-3 fans love and adore: A PLAYOFF SYSTEM!!! After LSU lost today to Arkansas, the BCS has been thrown into turmoil…but it needs to be throw to the dogs. How amazing is D-3 that has a TRUE national champion when all is said and done?

    Pat and Keith, thanks for all you guy do! looking forward to tomorrow’s games.

19. Mule66: Mulenburg is having a great season and it wouldn’t be that big a surprise for Wesley to fall. Yet Wesley is a capable and proven team that is playing at home. I think the game will be close but Wesley sneaks by. And YES – Wesley is not as good as everyone thinks.

20. RunFerrum

    Yup and Wesley wasn’t that good two years ago when the beat Ferrum 59-14.
    Wesley may not be scoring 50 pts a game BUT they are better than any team Muhlenberg has played

21. dedragon, well said. simple and true.

    runferrum, you have been downplaying wesley most of the year. as far as your comment that wesley is not as good as everyone thinks, i believe they have been under the radar since the lose to montclaire. isnt this the same team that beat uncw despite not playing a very good game the first game of the year. i know you will say uncw has improved since then, so has wesley. if uncw can win this week and wesley takes care of business as they should, then we will get to see how good your uncw team is now. i dont think the result would be any different if they play a second time.

22. It’s NCWC — UNCW is UNC-Wilmington.

23. thanks, pat, will make the corection in future posts, although i dont think unc wilmington has a football team so i dont think anyone is mixing the 2 up on d3.

24. Didn’t want you to get a smackdown from someone else. 🙂

25. Pat –

    I was at Ferrum when the panthers totally fell apart the last two weeks. I actually thought Wesley had the better team that year (just didn’t think Ferrum would fall completely apart as they did). Though as you imply Wesley is not as good now as they were then. I would not be surprised if Muhlenburg wins but my money is still with Wesley.

    Wesleydad –

    Wesley has been on a good run over the past few years. I actually disagree with Wesley running under the radar. Wesley’s preseason rank was 6th (hard to miss) after they did blow it against MontClaire, they only fell to 17th and spent just 2 weeks outside the top 10. As of now they are right back at the 6 spot.
    So as to the suggestion of being under the radar, I would say no.

    If you want to suggest a team that has been under the radar (until this past week) look at NCWC. Yes they lost by 3 in their opener, on the road. As Pat has stated the rankings are set as if teams were playing at a neutral site – so maybe NCWC would have pulled the game out if had been elsewhere (who knows?).
    NCWC has improved drastically over the season. Maybe Wesley has also.
    Either way I would love for a rematch, yet I think MHB is too much for anyone in the South, Wesley or NCWC (hopefully I am wrong).

26. Run Ferrum — I didn’t say anything on the subject. That was someone else.

27. I’m not one for making picks at all; but I just read the story on UW-EC and felt compelled to let everyone know that a BluGold is a mythical bird from the local Indian tribe (like a Phoenix). Not sure, of the top of my head what tribe it is but I have heard this from multiple, respected sources during my past four years.

28. Wow RyanTipps a bit testy are we…well you’re right I have never (as most of the human race outside of New England) heard of the NEFC Boyd or whatever the otherside of that conference is—(I hear they have two divisions within one conference-OK),,,all I know is traditionally they are beaten so quickly no one hears about them so maybe I’ll learn more about this ‘so-well known conference’ if they should advance again this week….but I doubt it,

    And are you guys kiddin me…any poll in American would drop a team (like Wheaton) off the map for losing on two consecutive weekends to teams that are not ranked…theres no way you can defend that stance. 8-2 is one thing (and I heard there was something like 18 of them at the end of the year), but 8-2 with both consecutive losses coming at the end of the year to “non-ranked” teams (I think both finished 7-3) is a whole other world…your creditability falls quickly if you think your poll is more scientific than say the BCS…not mixing them up, just using it as a comparison and something everyone knows….. and so what scientific basis does your “i Think” fall under

29. There’s no BCS in Division III to compare to, so not sure how that affects our “creditability.”

    Also, if you don’t know the difference between the NEFC and the NESCAC then I hope you’re not in a position to make decisions about the bracket. 🙂

    Yes, gasp, losing to 7-3 teams. Any team that loses to a 7-3 team must be awful! I thought in your world since NCC and Wheaton had the same number of losses and Wheaton won the head to head game that Wheaton must be ranked higher. Oh, wait, you had a different explanation for that one.

30. Hey all,
    Lots of foolish arguing going on as usually.

    Holed up in the Dover Residence Inn (holy crap this place is nice!) after a Thanksgiving trip to Jersey, thought I would provide a little perspective on my picks without any direct attacks on anyone above.

    Picking the scores is a pretty inexact science, and even when you feel you know what kind of game it’s going to be, it doesn’t always turn out the way you thought.

    Re: St. John’s-Central, yeah, Pat and I both picked Central, but neither of us would be surprised if St. John’s won. I think you can tell that by the scores we put up there.

    Muhlenberg, I think they have the potential to win tomorrow. Wesley’s got some flaws, but they are no overrated pushover. Very few teams can match that speed. I don’t think the Mules can cover them man-to-man, but I think they might be able to get after them up front and cause some problems.

    Even though the Mules had a chance to blow the game open vs. Salisbury, don’t anyone think they dominated the whole game. Salsibury really did not play well, some of it was due to the Mules being really disruptive on defense, some was just sloppiness. But they scored on two big plays and shut the Mules down from mid-2nd to late 4th and brought it to a 21-21 tie. I would imagine Wesley hits 1 or 2 big plays just as Salisbury did, but the Mules really can grind on both lines, so it’ll be a stiff test for the Mules up front.

    It’s fair to use Salisbury as a common opponent saying Muhlenberg’s got a chance tomorrow, but considering both teams beat Salisbury, it doesn’t really make the Mules a big favorite either.

    I think it’s one of Saturday’s most interesting matchups, but Wesley is the safe pick.

    Same thing with Bethel vs. UW-EC. It’s nice that they did well in the WIAC, but sweeping the MIAC is nothing to scoff at. The Blugolds’ style is dangerous (as is Central’s, admittedly) and we could see them putting one together, but I wouldn’t make that pick.

    Basically there were only two, maybe three, toss-ups. The other games have clear favorites, even though there are “dogs” we could see winning.

    Shoot, it’s the playoffs, it’s half the fun. We’re glad we have it this way as opposed to that other way.

31. As usually? Oops.

    A couple more comments. NCWC — we all got it now? — is an interesting matchup tomorrow. They could put up some points (although they are NOT a top 10 team, RunFerrum) but I remember their defense as being lean and fast, and that might not be the right combination against the UMHB rushing attack.

    The Bishops will probably play pretty loose and without a lot of pressure. Jack Ginn’s quotes make it sound like he’s got his team believing its an eight-seed that isn’t supposed to win, but they are a very good team and one that deserves its spot in the final 16 (I think I ranked them 21 the last week, something like that, just guessing and would have to look it up to be sure).

    UMHB, as talented as they are, does seem to have some weird letdowns. Maybe NCWC could go down there as an upstart the way Wesley did a few years ago and knock UMHB off, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Could happen though.

    Really don’t know what to make of Wabash-Case except enjoy this week because UWW might not be so much fun. North Central’s tough and fast, they might match up with the Warhawks in some spots. Probably if they play their best game they can pull the upset, but highly unlikely.

    Mount Union to 28 … not so sure of myself there. TCNJ exceptional defense and a promise to throw some confusing looks at the Purple Raiders. Maybe they limit their scoring, but getting points against the MUC D … thats where the problem will probably come in.

    SJF/Curry … The Colonels would certainly send shockwaves through teh country with a W, we have mostly been expecting the SJF-MUC rematch.

    No matter what happens, this’ll definitely be fun to watch. I love this week and I love the playoffs.

    Tune in tomorrow or check in with us online after you get home. We’ll be here.

32. I am not sure by what runferrum means by this

    “Mount Union over TCNJ (55-7) Making up for a disappointing game last week”

    the only thing i can think is that you are still hurting from what Ithaca did in to your team (Ferrum) in 1988, and that Ithaca gave MUC its toughest game to date. Look for muc and tcnj to be a lot closer more in line with Pat and Kieth’s predictions

33. Touchdown — man you have way too much free time. One team manages to score (somewhat) on MUC and all of a sudden their secondary is porous? Stop the run and you win the game. Did you not note the 13 rushing yards allowed last week.

34. Throwing confusing Defensive looks at the Purple Raiders will explode in TCNJ face and if their staff is smart they will run a basic defense and hope to keep the Mount Union Offense off the field then try to figure out how to stop Mounts defense from scoring. I’m looking for a 59- 6 score and some cold fingers and toes.
    It looks to be around 30 and sunny at game time.
    I’ll be there again but I hope to leave early.

35. The weather in Belton, Texas is cold and wet. Yuck. Temperature will be 42 degrees at game time with showers throughout the day. This will benefit UMHB’s ground attack and help them on defense as it should make it difficult for NCW to throw the ball and force them to run…something UMHB can stop with no problem. I am anticipating a blowout by the Cru. Sorry Bishops.

36. Pat–glad to see there were other people who didn’t get to bed to early last night……as you well know, there are lots of schools and possibly conferences people that don’t live in the northeast may not know about, just as there is in other parts of the country for those who are claiming residence in the first states….but that doesn’t make them uneducated…just relying on strong information from those that reportedly do–like you guys!

    its OK to disagree and it appears you and I will disagree forever on the Wheaton issue, I just know North Central won the AQ, yup they were 8-2 just like Wheaton and they also lost to Wheaton head-to-head…so you’re right on one point—but NC only lost 1 conference game, not two, and definitely not two in a row at the end of the year…so movin on

    Even though I’ve been hard on the MUC “D” the past week or so because of their leaky pass D,,,has anyone been noticing who I continue to say will be in Salem—same song–third verse–probable same national champion–MUC

    And Pat–wouldn’t it be interesting if D-III football.com had a BCS ‘like’ formula they used to make decisions….might make things…… well……. interesting

    I hope all your bloggers do a great job of keeping us updated on all the scores today–some of us are in locations where getting computer time or scores is ‘not easy’…a special ‘stay connected’ to that person who must hang out of their dorm room and watches the Case game …what a great seat

    d3football has never gotten this much publicity since you developed your website–agree or disagree with what is written–thanks guys for your efforts

37. To add on to what vhwon said, Tiger Field here in Belton has fairly new turf, and has an amazing drainage system. This should benefit the Cru’s running attack, but that doesn’t dry up the ball for throwing. Sorry NCWC.

    And by the way, mount union’s toughest game to date? you don’t have to go back that far….how about 2004, when they lost to the Cru at Home, only their second home loss in about 15 years (Ohio Northern in 2005)

    good luck to everyone today!

38. Okay, here are your picks done as fast as I can type them.

    Mount Union 42
    TCNJ 7

    St. John Fisher 34
    Curry 14

    Wesley 20
    Muhlenberg 17

    Mary Hardin-Baylor 35
    North Carolina Wesleyan 14

    St. John 17
    Central 14 (there’s your dissent!)

    Bethel 21
    UW-Eau Claire 17

    UW-Whitewater 35
    North Central 28

    Wabash 20
    Case Western 14

39. Middletownbomber and Dras, NICE call on the MUC score. I don’t get why so many posters don’t get it- I think it is purely wishful thinking getting in the way of logic. People so badly want to believe that MUC isn’t as good as “perceived”, but they are every bit as good, if not better.

40. Looks like you guys underestimated the blowout factor. Maybe this week was separating the wheat from the chaff, so to speak.

41. I think you want to be respectful, though I sincerely thought NCWC would at least score at UMHB. I basically took the UMHB/CNU game score and tweaked it on either side since NCWC beat CNU.

42. Yeah, that usually takes place going from 32 to 8 … The elite separate themselves from the good.

    I might have been a little too cautious this week with some of the scores, not getting carried away given the potential for surprises in the playoffs, but I think I hit all the winners, so I’m not too disappointed.

    Touchdown, i think it was you that looked at the ;ast D3.com poll vs. who was alive. Here’s who’s left now (and this goes to the elite separating themselves point)

    No. 5 St. John Fisher at No. 1 Mount Union
    No. 4 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 6 Wesley
    No. 9 Bethel at No. 3 Central
    No. 12 Wabash at No. 2 UW-Whitewater

    Looks a lot better, doesn’t it?

    Given the brackets, no major surprises in the quarterfinals. 1 seed vs. 2 seed in the East and West, plus 1 vs. 3 in the North. And in the South, it might be 4 seed vs. 2 seed, but most people thought UMHB and Wesley were the two best teams.

    We shall see how it turns out.

43. And even though Wabash stands out as being the lowest ranked team to advance, in fact, Wabash was the highest ranked team of the four in its group — nobody higher could have advanced. In every foursome, the highest ranked team in the D3football.com poll advanced, even though the higher seeded teams did not always do so.

44. Well, if it is MU, Central, UWW and UMHB in the final four….then you guys have the poll done right.