Projecting the playoffs

It’s that time of year again, our first playoff projections.

This is where we take the 22 automatic bids, 10 of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.

In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight West teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?

First, the basics:

Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 22 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

Teams that have clinched playoff spots are in bold.

New Jersey Bracket
1. New Jersey (Pool A)
2. Curry (A)
3. St. John Fisher (C)
4. RPI (A)
5. Salisbury (B)
6. Hobart (C)
7. Hartwick (A)
8. Widener (A)
We tried projecting this bracket without figuring out who would win the Liberty League, but it wasn’t doable. So we projected Hobart and RPI to win their games, which gives RPI the automatic bid. Hartwick and St. John Fisher win in Week 11 and Hartwick gets the automatic bid. Salisbury gets moved into this bracket because there aren’t enough East teams that qualify.

Washington and Jefferson Bracket
1. Washington and Jefferson (A)
2. Wesley (B)
3. Muhlenberg (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
5. Trinity, Texas (A)
6. Capital (C)
7. Randolph-Macon/Hampden-Sydney (A)
8. N.C. Wesleyan (A)
North Carolina Wesleyan can get to Washington and Jefferson within the prescribed 500 miles, and Capital can get to Muhlenberg as well. Interesting how when you lift Salisbury out of the bracket, you get the two Texas teams at 4-5.

Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Wheaton, Ill. (A)
5. Franklin (A)
6. Mt. St. Joseph (C)
7. MIAA champ (A)
8. Concordia, Wis. (A)
The travel works out in this bracket, even from Mequon, Wis., to Alliance, Ohio. We qualified nine teams for the playoffs from the North Region, which filled this bracket after we moved Capital to the South.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. St. John’s (A)
3. Central (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. Redlands (C)
6. Bethel (C)
7. Whitworth (C)
8. Cal Lutheran (A)
Alright, NCAA penny-pinching could rear its ugly head here. But even the NCAA couldn’t possibly make Redlands and Cal Lutheran play again, one week later, right? Right?? Let’s hope so, anyway. So we’re sending Whitworth to Redlands and Cal Lutheran to UW-Whitewater in the Danny Jones Reunion Bowl. Bethel can’t play St. John’s again, unfortunately for St. Norbert, because Norbert gets the call. Bethel would be at Central.

We end up with three teams with two regional losses in Pool C in this projection: Capital, Hobart and Bethel. Occidental, with one regional loss and the weakest opponents’ winning percentage among one-loss teams (currently .391), gets passed in the regional rankings when Redlands beats Cal Lutheran and gets left home. Waynesburg’s .424 is the second-lowest.

We’ll do this again at the end of the night on Saturday, heading into Selection Sunday.

Third regional rankings

The NCAA released its third 2007 regional rankings today.

Teams are listed with their regional record first, followed by their overall record. For more information about the playoff format and how participants are determined, check out our FAQ.

There will be one final set of regional rankings, prepared for Selection Sunday. However, we do not get to see them.

East Region
No. Name In-Region Overall

1. New Jersey 8-1 8-1
2. Curry 10-0 10-0
3. St. John Fisher 8-1 8-1
4. RPI 7-1 7-1
5. Hobart 7-2 7-2
6. Cortland State 6-2 7-2
7. Widener 6-2 7-2
8. Hartwick 7-2 7-2
9. Ithaca 7-2 7-2
10. Alfred 7-2 7-2

North Region
No. Name In-Region Overall

1. Mount Union 9-0 9-0
2. Wabash 9-0 9-0
3. Case Western Reserve 7-0 9-0
4. Wheaton (Ill.) 8-1 8-1
5. Franklin 8-1 8-1
6. Mount St. Joseph 8-1 8-1
7. Capital 7-2 7-2
8. Wittenberg 7-2 7-2
9. North Central 7-2 7-2
10. Carthage 7-2 7-2

South Region
No. Name In-Region Overall

1. Washington and Jefferson 6-0 9-0
2. Wesley 6-1 8-1
3. Muhlenberg 9-0 9-0
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor 8-1 8-1
5. Salisbury 4-1 8-1
6. Trinity (Texas) 7-1 8-1
7. Randolph-Macon 8-1 8-1
8. Millsaps 7-2 7-2
9. Hampden-Sydney 6-2 7-2
10. Waynesburg 6-1 7-2

West Region
No. Name In-Region Overall

1. UW-Whitewater 8-0 8-1
2. St. John’s 8-0 9-0
3. Central 8-0 9-0
4. St. Norbert 9-0 10-0
5. Bethel 8-1 8-1
6. Wartburg 8-1 8-1
7. Occidental 7-1 7-1
8. Redlands 6-1 7-1
9. Whitworth 7-1 7-2
10. UW-Eau Claire 4-2 7-2