Alright, this is it, our last word on who we think will be in the playoffs. This is our final projection. We’ll all find out during the selection show at 11:30 a.m. ET what the NCAA thinks. I’d like to toot our own horn, with the fact that we got every at-large team right last year, but this year the selection process changes slightly, with the disappearance of the Quality of Wins Index and the return of opponents’ winning percentage and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. So we’re optimistic, but cautious.
As a reminder, 32 teams form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 22 conferences and the automatic bids. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.
So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.
Gordon Mann and I, as we have for the past several years, debated the at-large teams, the seedings and the pairings. Here’s our result.
St. John Fisher Bracket
1. St. John Fisher (C)
2. Curry (A)
3. RPI (A)
4. Hobart (C)
5. New Jersey (A)
6. Hartwick (A)
7. Ithaca (C)
8. Widener (A)
A surprise, perhaps, right off the bat as we have three Empire 8 teams in the field. Hartwick passed Widener in opponents’ winning percentage (OWP) and OOWP this week and dragged Ithaca up with them. Widener plays at St. John Fisher, Ithaca at Curry, Hartwick at RPI and New Jersey at Hobart.
Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Franklin (A)
5. Mt. St. Joseph (C)
6. North Central (A)
7. Capital (C)
8. Olivet (A)
Despite Wabash’s loss, we kept them in the No. 2 slot, giving them the nod based on a significantly higher opponents’ winning percentage. The traditional pairings get broken up here a little, as Mt. St. Joseph and Franklin wouldn’t play again in the first round. Olivet travels to Mount Union, Capital to Wabash, North Central to Franklin and Mt. St. Joseph to Case.
Washington and Jefferson Bracket
1. Washington and Jefferson (A)
2. Wesley (B)
3. Muhlenberg (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
5. Salisbury (B)
6. Trinity, Texas (A)
7. Hampden-Sydney (A)
8. N.C. Wesleyan (A)
Despite the seedings, of course, the Texas teams play each other in the first round, with Trinity at Mary Hardin-Baylor. North Carolina Wesleyan is within the 500-mile radius of Washington and Jefferson, with Hampden-Sydney heading to Wesley and Salisbury at Muhlenberg.
UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. Central (A)
3. Bethel (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. St. John’s (C)
6. Redlands (A)
7. Whitworth (C)
8. Concordia, Wis. (A)
Whitworth would be the first team in a non-automatic bid conference to earn a Pool C bid. And of course, the money saving NCAA would put No. 7 seed Whitworth at No. 6 seed Redlands, even though it’s the only flight of the bracket. Concordia (Wis.) gets the honor of the short trip to UW-Whitewater, with St. Norbert at Bethel and St. John’s at Central.
So our Pool B decision was easy: Wesley, Salisbury, Case Western Reserve.
Pool C was easier. Wait, make that harder. It went St. John Fisher, St. John’s, Mt. St. Joseph, Hobart, Capital, Whitworth and Ithaca. Millsaps, Wheaton and Wartburg were on the board when the buzzer sounded and Wheaton was the last team left out, the proverbial eighth Pool C team. Wheaton and Ithaca have nearly identical credentials but very different endings to their seasons.