Alright, this is it, our last word on who we think will be in the playoffs. This is our final projection. We’ll all find out during the selection show at 11:30 a.m. ET what the NCAA thinks. I’d like to toot our own horn, with the fact that we got every at-large team right last year, but this year the selection process changes slightly, with the disappearance of the Quality of Wins Index and the return of opponents’ winning percentage and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. So we’re optimistic, but cautious.
As a reminder, 32 teams form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 22 conferences and the automatic bids. Three bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.
So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.
Gordon Mann and I, as we have for the past several years, debated the at-large teams, the seedings and the pairings. Here’s our result.
St. John Fisher Bracket
1. St. John Fisher (C)
2. Curry (A)
3. RPI (A)
4. Hobart (C)
5. New Jersey (A)
6. Hartwick (A)
7. Ithaca (C)
8. Widener (A)
A surprise, perhaps, right off the bat as we have three Empire 8 teams in the field. Hartwick passed Widener in opponents’ winning percentage (OWP) and OOWP this week and dragged Ithaca up with them. Widener plays at St. John Fisher, Ithaca at Curry, Hartwick at RPI and New Jersey at Hobart.
Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wabash (A)
3. Case Western Reserve (B)
4. Franklin (A)
5. Mt. St. Joseph (C)
6. North Central (A)
7. Capital (C)
8. Olivet (A)
Despite Wabash’s loss, we kept them in the No. 2 slot, giving them the nod based on a significantly higher opponents’ winning percentage. The traditional pairings get broken up here a little, as Mt. St. Joseph and Franklin wouldn’t play again in the first round. Olivet travels to Mount Union, Capital to Wabash, North Central to Franklin and Mt. St. Joseph to Case.
Washington and Jefferson Bracket
1. Washington and Jefferson (A)
2. Wesley (B)
3. Muhlenberg (A)
4. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
5. Salisbury (B)
6. Trinity, Texas (A)
7. Hampden-Sydney (A)
8. N.C. Wesleyan (A)
Despite the seedings, of course, the Texas teams play each other in the first round, with Trinity at Mary Hardin-Baylor. North Carolina Wesleyan is within the 500-mile radius of Washington and Jefferson, with Hampden-Sydney heading to Wesley and Salisbury at Muhlenberg.
UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. Central (A)
3. Bethel (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. St. John’s (C)
6. Redlands (A)
7. Whitworth (C)
8. Concordia, Wis. (A)
Whitworth would be the first team in a non-automatic bid conference to earn a Pool C bid. And of course, the money saving NCAA would put No. 7 seed Whitworth at No. 6 seed Redlands, even though it’s the only flight of the bracket. Concordia (Wis.) gets the honor of the short trip to UW-Whitewater, with St. Norbert at Bethel and St. John’s at Central.
So our Pool B decision was easy: Wesley, Salisbury, Case Western Reserve.
Pool C was easier. Wait, make that harder. It went St. John Fisher, St. John’s, Mt. St. Joseph, Hobart, Capital, Whitworth and Ithaca. Millsaps, Wheaton and Wartburg were on the board when the buzzer sounded and Wheaton was the last team left out, the proverbial eighth Pool C team. Wheaton and Ithaca have nearly identical credentials but very different endings to their seasons.
You are probably more accurate than I in the projections, but I’m trying to understand the reasoning. Whitworth I understand, despite the VERY modest SOS – only one loss covers a lot of other flaws. But I’m not understanding either Cap or Ithaca over Wheaton. Cap had OWP of .549 and OOWP of .517, both below Wheaton, and (probably) a 1-1 record against regionally-ranked teams (vs. 1-0 for Wheaton, or 1-1 if IWU re-enters the rankings). Ithaca had OWP of .539 and OOWP of .548 (again both below Wheaton) and (probably) a 1-2 record against regionally-ranked teams (assuming Alfred falls out). What am I missing that either of these teams goes in before the Thunder? (Supposedly, end-of-season performance is NOT a criterion.)
It’s been our observation that losing to Mount Union doesn’t carry the stigma that any other loss might carry. Mount has lost one regular-season game in 13 seasons.
Ithaca got our nod because the secondary criteria leave that open as an option and we got kind of a non-committal response from those in the know. We have Cortland in our final East regional rankings, along with Montclair — Alfred does fall out.
I have checked several ecclesiastical dictionaries and, alas, Major Reuben Webster Millsaps, C.S.A. was not canonized.
Otherwise “Saint Millsaps” might have made the playoffs.
Since every one (in-region) loss team, except Plymouth State and Waynesburg, is projected to make the playoffs, there are plenty of programs who now know how close it can be to miss Pool C.
Great job Pat, thanks for all the work you do here. Looking forward to tomorrow and the next 5 weeks.
I couldn’t agree more with this rankings prediction, Bethel might even be able to get further then the first round this time. As a lifelong fan of the MIAC teams, specificly St.John’s and whoever is playing St.Thomas, I have many choices.
The games in Wisconsin and Iowa are always within a short drive. Perhaps a drive is in order this year, not to watch my Johnnies, but to check out Bethel. Its only 10 miles to the Bethel campus vs. 275 to Iowa.
Pat, great job with the brackets. I have become a huge DIII fan since my son starting playing as a freshmen four years ago. The insights reported on the Web Site have given me a tremendous insight to D III football. As a fan of Hobart waiting for an at large bid, they are playing as well as I have seen them over the last four years. Hobart’s only two losses were a result of a fluke fumble, leading to an overtime loss and a last minute three point loss. Both of these games happened early in the season. To Hobart’s credit they overcame these early season disappointments and went on a 7 game win streak finishing 8-2. They deserve their ranking and hopefully they will be rewarded at noon today.
Keep up the good work.
Pat… I agree with Mr Ypsi…. Wheaton College should not be denied entry to the D3 playoffs this year… Their strength of schedule was also a great indicator… Too strong not to be there this year… I think the NCAA committee will agree…. Keep up the good work.
how is widener an 8 seed? ithaca – by NO MEANS is a better and they probably won’t even get the at-large bid everyone’s hating on widener because of the conference they play in – but they straight ran the table in their conference and the auto-bid locked up after last weeks game, if hartwick gets seeded over them that’s fine, i can live with it BUT ITHACA please that’s just ridiculous at least a 7 seed, at least.
As a wheaton fan I will go on record saying it would be a crime if Wheaton got in over Capital. I would love for the thunder to get a chance but anyone who thinks the OAC #2 doesn’t deserve a bid is delerious. Cap should be measured with the other 1 loss teams. It pains me to say that but I think that’s the fact.
Widener’s seeding is based on its numbers. Ithaca’s OWP and OOWP went up after playing Cortland.
i don’t know as much about playoff seedings, etc. as most on this board, and i’m not as familiar with the formula’s used to determine seeding, but i can’t understand why hsc would be ranked ahead of ncwc…is this projected match up perhaps a result of ncwc and wesley having played in the regular season?
the bishops lost to two teams who will continue to play next week (wesley and widener…combined 17-3) while hsc lost to two very mediocre teams (ehc and johns hopkins…comined 8-12) and the only common opponent between the teams was ehc, and ncwc beat the wasps – i understand that opinions of the usasac as a conference are pretty low (and those opinions may be deserved), but making direct comparison’s to ncwc and hsc are pretty easy, if you ask me – both were 8-2 with a common opponent, but the losses for each are pretty telling
i don’t think either team gets out of the first round, though, regardless of where they are “seeded” and who they match up with 🙂
Even though I’m not impressed with Capital’s O due to injuries, I agree with Usee on this one. Wheaton’s numbers looked better than Capital’s, but the OAC only gets 1 non-conference game to boost the strength of schedule. Once in conference, everything tends to .500
We also need to keep in mind that the final pairings are made by a selection COMMITTEE (i.e. humans) and not a selection COMPUTER. All the criteria and numbers are tools to select the teams, but are not set in stone factors. Playoff history isn’t an official criteria, but I have a hard time believing that the committee doesn’t look at an 8-2 OAC team better than an 8-2 CCIW team simply on the strength of the 2 conferences and the fact that MUC is a guaranteed loss to Capital. Almost as if MUC is listed at D-2.5 and it doesn’t count matter.
Also, the loss of the final 2 games has to be final nail in the Wheaton coffin.
cjdel10,
I don’t think Widener is better than Ithaca at all, they did “straight up” run the table in their conference, but I would say it’s a pretty down year for the MAC. Also they were absolutely destroyed by Wesley and a sub par Rowan team. They only won one conference game by more than a touchdown which does not display dominance and on the season they are averaging 18.3 points on offense but giving up 18.9 on defense. I just don’t see how with those kind of numbers you can say so defiantly that Widener is much better than Ithaca who has been absolutely blowing out teams since their week 4 loss to Fisher
I figured the Majors would be left off the board with two losses, but at least now Millsaps parents can let their kids know that they have nothing to be ashamed of. A 12-1 SCAC record in the past two seasons with a 15-6 overall record is a step in the right direction towards a consistent winning program. This season could have gone either way with a 27-26 loss to an 8-2 MS College team and a 28-24 loss to the 13th-ranked Trinity Tigers who finished at 9-1. I only wish the selection committee would really take a minute and look at this team, the senior leadership and how well they travel. This is a totally different playoff caliber team from a 21-0 opening round loss to Carnegie Mellon last season. They deserve a shot at a first round matchup somewhere, but not with two losses.
Bobby –
I do not know if I would count the 34 – 17 loss that Widener had to Wesley as being absolutely destroyed. Yes the Rowan los was devastating but the win againt WC Weslyan a playoff team in the south was a good one. I also think winning 7 in a row deserves a little more respect then they are recieving.
While I hope that you’re right, I can’t see 3 teams from Empire 8 making the playoffs.
Assuming your projects are correct, does St. Norbert have any chance against Bethel? This has to be a very good Bethel team to beat #3 St. Johns.
Keep up the great job. Being an ex-DIII player, I enjoy keeping up with the DIII scene.
Well Pat and Gordon, you’d grown accustomed to uncreative committees, and so your predictions followed suit.
And while you did fine on the teams, the matchups are quite creative.
Ithaca at Mount Union
Redlands at St. John’s
Widener at Case Western Reserve
Very nice.
I wasn’t able to get the U, but since you’re still on, I’ll start an immediate reactions thread. I imagine you said something about this on the air.
OK. The first thought I had as the brackets were shown was “Is the NCAA on crack?”.
After studying the brackets, I’m sure they are. This is just crazy.
MUC is hosting the “East Region”.
Whitewater is hosting the “North Region”.
W&J bracket looks OK.
Central gets the gift of the day in having WWW elsewhere.
Interesting. Very interesting.
We’ve been taking about wanting to see some new teams come to Alliance in the playoffs, but we were thinking North Central, Franklin or Case. We got our wish, but with eastern team.
Interesting indeed.
hscoach, the brackets make plenty of sense. My only question is why 3 teams from the Empire 8 instead of a Whitworth!
What would be the margin of victory of MUC vs Whitworth vis-a-vis MUC vs Ithaca?