Three of this weekend’s contenders are on familiar ground, while the third, St. Thomas, has been building to this point over the past three seasons. Adding a dimension of excitement to the St. Thomas/UW-Whitewater matchup is seeing Gagliardi Trophy finalists Fritz Waldvogel and Matt Blanchard lead the offensive charge for their respective teams.

You’ve been following through the first three rounds; you’ve heard the breakdowns of last week and more in the Around the Nation Podcast; and you’ve probably perused the Post Patterns message board for extra bits of insight.

Today’s Triple Take brings all the pieces together with score predictions and analysis of both of the national semifinal games. The winners of these games get to travel to Salem, Division III’s Tinseltown, for the 39th Amos Alonzo Stagg Bowl.

On Saturday, there’ll be a live blog running here on The Daily Dose, and all tweets with hashtag #d3fb are included. Take a look at our playoffs home page for our Road to Salem feature stories and more!

Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 34, St. Thomas 20
The Warhawks have been dismantling quality teams from Day 1 of the 2011 season. And when a team like the Tommies has one receiver who accounts for three times more receiving yards than other individual on the team, Whitewater will know who to zero in on. Talented defensive backs will be disruptive, and a vicious UW-W front line will get pressure on any quarterback it comes across. And there’s not a running game around that can get through the linebackers led by Greg Arnold and Ryan Cortez (just ask Salisbury). St. Thomas definitely has a couple of stunning skill players, but Whitewater hasn’t gotten to where they are over the past seven seasons without being able to neutralize those skills. The Tommies will need a bit of razzle-dazzle to win; simple strength won’t be enough. I’m not sure that they have it. The Warhawks are tested, and players on the both sides of the ball complement one another. Sure, Warhawk quarterback Matt Blanchard and rusher Levell Coppage are great skill players, but it’s the supporting cast that will make sure this game falls in favor of Whitewater.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 24, St. Thomas 17
So remember last week when I pointed out how UW-Whitewater always plays a close quarterfinal or semifinal, and wrote Salisbury would be that game? Wrong. But I implore you to believe me this week (or don’t): THIS is that game. In all seriousness, there isn’t a program that’s more ready for this challenge than St. Thomas. The Tommies are very much built in the Warhawks’ likeness: Smother the opposing run game (1.56 yards per carry; UW-W allows 2.73; the national average in D-III this season was 3.99), be physical on offense as well, and take care of the ball. I requested game video from both schools this week so I could make a detailed and informed pick. With both teams so dependent on establishing the run (Colin Tobin, 605 yards, 7TDs in playoffs and UW-W’s Levell Coppage, 514 and 10) the only way I felt I could get a feel for if either would be successful was to re-watch both games. Unfortunately only St. Thomas came through. So my insight isn’t what it could be, but there’s this: St. Thomas can win. They’re versatile enough on offense to score and they pursue well on defense, meaning long runs will be hard to come by for the Warhawks. But whenever the going gets tough for UW-Whitewater, they can buckle down and move the ball by handing it to Levell Coppage. And the Tommies, their gaudy rush defense numbers aside, don’t look to the naked eye to be rugged enough to consistently stand up to the Warhawks’ pounding. They’ll need some turnovers and big plays to sway the game, because the Warhawks aren’t flashy, they’re just better than everyone that lines up against them.
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 28, St. Thomas 25
I’ve been asked many times in the past couple of weeks if I thought St. Thomas could beat UW-Whitewater. I think they could, but I’d feel more secure in that if they had won their quarterfinal last year and gone on to play Mount Union. I think most teams playing one of the Powers for the first time feel just a little bit of intimidation, but even if not, the adjustment period is noticeable. (Yes, Mary Hardin-Baylor 2004, I see you back there.) St. Thomas has started a bit slow each of the past two weeks, heck, the past three weeks if you think the Tommies shouldn’t have had to punt three times in their first four possessions against St. Scholastica. A slow start against UW-Whitewater could mean a 21-0 deficit. The tough run defense will face the biggest challenge in Division III football. Not many have contained Levell Coppage.

Ryan’s take: Wesley 28, Mount Union 24
I’ve been in this spot before, willing to channel my faith in Wesley into a national semifinal prediction. The Wolverines have emerged from the most loaded bracket of the bunch and have taken down some of the nation’s top polled teams in Linfield and Mary Hardin-Baylor. And they did it in distinctly different ways, playing to the pressure of the moment and coming up big when it was needed. Wesley signal-caller Shane McSweeny is as great a runner as he is a passer, and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares against one of the most statistically stingy run defenses in the country. And Mount’s pass defense benefits from the likes of Nick Driskill, probably the nation’s scariest guy to throw the ball near. Those defensive elements from Mount take away a lot of Wesley’s strength. However, Mount today isn’t the Mount of last year; or of the year before when Cecil Shorts turned a tight matchup against Wesley into a rout. The question that has to be asked is: Is Wesley capable of taking itself to the championship level? They’ve been so close so often since 2005. This is their moment. It won’t be easy, but nothing has been for them this postseason. I’m colorblind, so I probably won’t be able to tell the difference, but the Stagg Bowl will be purple and navy this year.
Keith’s take: Mount Union 20, Wesley 17
I requested and was promised video from both schools here too, but the DVDs never arrived. Because I’m located so close to Dover, I’ve seen Wesley twice this season, and because I didn’t have DirecTV and Sports Time Ohio, I’ve seen less Mount Union than usual. I wanted to be careful not to pick Wesley just because I know more about them. There are two variables here that could greatly sway the outcome: Which QB takes snaps for Mount Union, and which personality Wesley takes on. Neal Seaman, Matt Piloto and freshman Kevin Burke all played for the Purple Raiders last week, and it’s hard to speculate which one they’d be best off with against Wesley. Meanwhile, Wolverines QB Shane McSweeny — the nation’s fourth-most efficient passer and one of its most versatile quarterbacks — has taken care of the ball all season, never throwing more than one interception in a game. He’s thrown 13 TD passes and two interceptions in three playoff wins, against by far the best competition any of the semifinalists have played. That’s key, because the Purple Raiders are famously successful when winning the turnover battle — 162-1 since 1990, with the loss coming in the 1995 playoffs. So we’ve got two major themes: How Charles Dieseul, Nick Driskill and a smothering defense deals with the multiple threats of McSweeny, the big body of tight end Sean McAndrew and the speed of Wesley’s Steven Koudoussou and Matt Barile. And then how Wesley’s defense — equally adept at smothering teams — functions against Mount Union’s not-as-dynamic-as-usual offense. The Wolverines played great halves against Linfield and Mary Hardin-Baylor; they’ll need to play four great quarters to slow RB Jeremy Murray and the Purple Raiders’ offense. Are the poor tackling, penalty-prone Wolverines going to show up in Alliance, or are the sharp, multitalented, inspired-by-Ben Knapp Wolverines going to be there? I could honestly see a St. Thomas-Wesley Stagg Bowl, and it would be refreshing for D-III to shake things up a little. But I’ve learned my lesson being wrong over the years. In a game in Alliance, the safe pick is the Purple Raiders.
Pat’s take: Mount Union 16, Wesley 13
I still like Mount Union’s chances of winning with defense, even if they are indeed down to their third-string quarterback. The defense should play well enough, especially the front six, to keep Wesley’s offense in check. I agree this is Wesley’s best chance, but I am not sure that is enough here. Keeping Shane McSweeny contained is the key to stopping the Wesley offense, granted, but I think it’s also time to give the Purple Raiders special teams some shine as well. If Hobart and Kean can put Wesley in bad spots with special teams plays, couldn’t Mount Union also? Enough offense will come. Mount Union can’t score like Linfield or Mary Hardin-Baylor, but won’t need to either.

Mount Union · semifinals · St. Thomas · Stagg Bowl · UW-Whitewater · Wesley

Mount Union’s defense has not been a problem this season. Mount Union athletics photo

Is your heart still pounding after the comeback-laden Round 2? The field shrank to just eight teams, and we’re a mere 14 days from the final matchup in Salem.

Here in the regional finals, two Empire 8 teams are still alive, and both must travel to the upper Midwest for their Saturday matchups. Elsewhere, Wesley and Mary Hardin-Baylor are meeting in the postseason for the sixth time in seven years, with the Wolverines holding the 3-2 edge. The day’s fourth game, between Mount Union and Wabash, comes nine years after these teams last met, which was also the last time the Little Giants made it this deep in the playoffs.

Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps bring you more than just score predictions this week; we also give you a breakdown of each game and what we think the key factors will be.

If you’re feeling prescient, leave your final score guesses below. There’ll be a live blog running here on The Daily Dose during Saturday’s games, and all tweets with hashtag #d3fb are included.

For more info on the postseason, including the brackets and our Road to Salem feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 40, Salisbury 21
The Warhawks give up barely 70 yards a game on the ground; Salisbury gains on average more than 360. It’s likely Saturday’s result will meet somewhere in between. The Gulls have put up wads of points all season on teams that aren’t familiar with its triple-option offense, which has the dynamic trio of superback Randal Smedley, slot Ross Flanigan and quarterback Dan Griffin at its disposal. Only once in the past nine weeks has Salisbury posted fewer than 41 points. But no matter how many points the Gulls conspire to put up on the defending national champions, it’s improbable that they have answers for Levell Coppage, Matt Blanchard or Tyler Huber on the UW-W offense. The skill there is considerable. The players complement one another, and the push off the front line will have Salisbury remembering back to their game against Wesley.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 28, Salisbury 24
In each of the six previous Warhawks playoff runs, there’s been a quarterfinal or semifinal game decided by three to 10 points. This is that game this year. Salisbury will strike early, as there’s no way to simulate an offense that lines its backs up within two yards of the line of scrimmage, and hits holes with remarkable quickness. Even if UW-Whitewater is stronger up front and blows plays up, some seams will develop. By halftime, though, the Warhawks should have a feel for what they’re dealing with, and that’s when Salisbury — the nation’s No. 1 team in passing efficiency, not just scoring offense — has to show some diversity in its attack. When they lull the Warhawks to sleep with the option and then fake it, QB Dan Griffin needs to hit the open streaking receiver. Ball security is also big; The Seagulls have two fumbles in 100 playoff rushes. Defensively, that second half is when Levell Coppage and his offensive line begins to wear down the opposing defense. Thirty carries and a second-half rally from down 24-14 wouldn’t surprise me. UW-Whitewater has earned the respect, and playing at Perkins Stadium, I have to pick them. But Warhawks fans shouldn’t view Salisbury as another Eastern team they can push around. It’s more like a team built in its ‘pound the rock’ mold, and one that won’t be overwhelmed by the continuous thump of run play after run play.
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 31, Salisbury 17
I think we have a speed kills situation here. It’s a big week for Salisbury, the most capable passing triple-option offense to make the postseason in the expanded playoff era, and I like them to stay competitive in the usual way. They can maintain possession, shorten the game, all the things necessary to keep the score close. The Sea Gulls’ defense needs to come up big against the Warhawks’ run game to make it competitive. They may be able to break a couple scores but UW-Whitewater will adjust.

Delaware Valley Bracket
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 31, St. John Fisher 14
I’m not sure that St. John Fisher can handle the kind of run game that St. Thomas brings to the table. The Cardinals have been adept at keeping passing attacks out of the end zone and winning those games, but the only two times this season that opponents have rushed for more than 200 yards, Fisher limped away with losses. The Tommies get a lot of paydirt out of the 5-foot-9 Colin Tobin at running back, but the Dakota Tracy-to-Fritz Waldvogel tandem means that the passing game is in play — always. Fisher has had a great run and, like the 8-2 Wheaton team of 2008, proved that two-loss Pool C teams absolutely deserve consideration for the postseason. The ride, however, ends here.
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 25, St. John Fisher 22
I like the Cardinals’ chances a lot if Ryan Kramer starts. The Tommies’ defensive m.o. is smother the run (No. 1 nationally this season at less than 47 yards per game, in a no-slouch conference), and Kramer — a converted running back who wears No. 21 — gives Fisher a diverse playbook. Options, screens and draws are all in play when Kramer is in. The Tommies have leaned on Colin Tobin in the playoffs, and Fritz Waldvogel being a threat to go the distance at any time is the perfect complement to bruising running. If Ahmed Hassanien is the St. John Fisher quarterback, that plays into St. Thomas’s sack-happy pass rush. UST outrushed its two playoff opponents, 354-14 and 391-4, so SJF needs its run game to be a factor to keep the game from getting out of hand. Otherwise, all the reasons you’d normally knock a team — playing in the cold, traveling several states away, not having faced high-caliber opponents — aren’t things that concern me about St. John Fisher.
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 24, St. John Fisher 10
St. John Fisher took down two teams that the AFCA poll thought more highly of than our poll did, in Johns Hopkins and Delaware Valley. That type of ranking differential is usually an indication of a weaker schedule — our voters are more likely to keep a team with a good loss ahead of an unbeaten team. I mention all this in order to set up the point that St. Thomas is no such team. They’ve been to the playoffs each of the past three years and they are much healthier than at this point in 2010. Like last year, the Tommies have a strong run game and are primarily dependent on one receiver, but if Fritz Waldvogel goes down, as he did early in last year’s quarterfinal, at least the Tommies are in slightly better position. Defensively, St. Thomas is firing on all cylinders but will be facing a better challenge than either of the previous two weeks in the playoffs. The reason St. John Fisher doesn’t score more than the 10 points Monmouth scored last week is because I don’t think St. Thomas will put the ball on the turf three times and throw an easy pick. I’ve been pushing St. John Fisher in the first two rounds but can’t for the third. Every good run stops eventually.

Mary Hardin-Baylor Bracket
Ryan’s take: Wesley 38, Mary Hardin-Baylor 34
These two teams have more history together than any of the other pairings on Saturday, and despite that (or perhaps because of it), this matchup is the most difficult to predict. I like Wesley quarterback Shane McSweeny, the coach’s dream combination of potent passing and skilled running. I like his array of receiving targets — and the headaches they’ll provide to the UMHB secondary. I like the Wolverines’ turnover ratio, the red-zone offense, Sean Hopkins’ punt return ability. What I don’t like are penalties and an injured All-America defensive lineman in Chris Mayes. UMHB will make teams pay for their weaknesses, but the fact remains that the Crusaders aren’t as good against the pass as they are against the run. UMHB has seen good passing attacks, but Wesley has the edge in this one.
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Wesley 35
Let’s get this standard analysis out of the way now. If the Wesley that scored 42 unanswered against No. 5 Linfield last week shows up from the opening kick this week, then UMHB has issues. But the Wolverines can’t afford to be the poor tackling, penalty-prone, rely-too-much-on-Shane-McSweeny team that it has been at times the past two weeks. The Wolverines will miss Chris Mayes, but less so than they would have against a pass-heavy team. Defensive tackle Paul Gilstrop and linebackers Jeff Morgan and Mike Asiedu have to excel in run defense. We can’t expect Wesley to hold UMHB under 100 rushing yards like Hobart (80) and Linfield (88); Salisbury (226 but only 75 passing yards) is a more apt comparison. Cru QB LiDarral Bailey hasn’t had to attempt more than 17 passes since mid-October. Darius Wilson hasn’t put up big numbers in the early rounds, but he’s lost one fumble in 224 carries this season. Ball security was an issue in the 19-9 loss in Dover last season, as was having to play from behind. UMHB is better when they build an early lead, but if they do it on Saturday, they’ll have to keep building, because the Wolverines have proven they can score in a hurry, and they’re never out of a game.
Pat’s take: Wesley 42, Mary Hardin-Baylor 37
Wesley brought back its entire linebacking corps this year, lost its entire secondary, and those are things which benefit the Wolverines against an option team such as Mary Hardin-Baylor. Chris Mayes being out with his ACL injury makes it a little more difficult for Wesley to hold the Cru down, however. UMHB’s struggles on offense early in the season could easily be explained away by the Cru’s flirtation with the pistol, getting them away from what they do best. And UMHB has held McMurry, a prolific offense, more or less in check twice. Shane McSweeny will be a different challenge, of course, than McMurry offered at quarterback, but not altogether different than East Texas Baptist’s Sed Harris provided. Harris went 17-for-29 for 117 yards while also rushing for 290 yards on 30 carries in an Oct. 22 loss to UMHB. Wesley is better defensively, however, even with Mayes out.

Mount Union Bracket
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 28, Wabash 20
After Wabash’s historic win last week against North Central, the Little Giants have made this discussion all the more interesting. But this chapter will be a challenging one to get through. The Purple Raiders have stumbled from time to time over the season, but true to form, they haven’t fallen. The Collins-Claycomb-Denton receiving squad is as formidable as any in Division III, helping to make UMU a consensus Top 2 team since the preseason. To stay in this one, Wabash’s answer will have to be a physical corps of defensive backs — an element the team has. It also has a run defense that not only hits hard but is quick to flocking to the ball. Offensively, the Little Giants have their own receiving threats with Jonathan Horn and Wes Chamblee, each of whom have great hands and hovered around 150 yards in the North Central game. We all know what Mount Union is capable of. The Purple Raiders co-own Division III. No question. Wabash has heart — we saw that last week. That heart, along with some big plays and a stingy defense, will make this game a good one.
Keith’s take: Mount Union 24, Wabash 12
I’ve got to respect the Little Giants after last week’s comeback against a North Central team that was probably better than most teams bounced in the second round. But like Wesley, they can’t fall behind again this week. Mount Union might not have a Cecil Shorts or a Nate Kmic this season, but they’ve got a Nick Driskill and a Charles Dieseul. When Centre scored 10 on the Purple Raiders last week, they became only the third team this season to reach that mark. Mount Union has had to scuffle for offense at times this year, and Wabash is good enough defensively to make it happen again, especially if defensive backs Austin Hodges and Kyle Najar play well. The Purple Raiders got wide receiver Jasper Collins back last week after four missed games, but lost top RB Jeremy Murray after five carries. Injuries are more of a factor in this semifinal than the others — we don’t know which Wabash QB will start either. This to me sets up to be a game that appears ugly to the untrained eye, but beautiful to the fans of hard tackling, solid blocking and powerful running. Won’t be fancy, as both teams try to take care of the ball, put the other in bad field position and let its dominant defense dominate.
Pat’s take: Mount Union 28, Wabash 13
I can see Wabash keeping Mount Union at least somewhat in check offensively. I struggle to see Wabash taking advantage, however, at least with its offensive unit on the field. Wes Chamblee is going to have to do a lot of work in the return game to keep Wabash in this game. Mount Union knows how to keep its foot on the gas offensively. Whether the offense has enough horsepower is another question, but at least the Purple Raiders won’t call off the dogs too soon and leave the door open for a comeback.

Mary Hardin-Baylor · Mount Union · Salisbury · St. John Fisher · St. Thomas · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Wesley

Delaware Valley is one of this week’s toss-up games, where our picks don’t agree. Delaware Valley athletics photo

The field of 32 has become a more elite group of 16. Last week, several games were decided by 10 points or less. How many of those met your expectations?

The first week fell mostly according to form, and no three-game sweeps were wrong. And few games were outside of the general range of scores that we predicted: Projected blowouts were often just that, and narrow projections often came down to the wire.

So we’ll walk you through our predictions again for Round 2. We’re soon wrapping up the November games and moving closer to the Division III championship Stagg Bowl on Dec. 16.

Remember, these postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of expectations vs. outcome.

If you’re feeling prescient, leave your final score guesses for any or all games below, and be sure to come back afterward to see how you did. There’ll be a live blog running here on The Daily Dose during Saturday’s games, and all tweets with hashtag #d3fb are included.

For more info on the 32-team race to Salem, including the brackets, info on each team and feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Franklin 7
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 35, Franklin 14
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 45, Franklin 10

Ryan’s take: Salisbury 38, Kean 24
Keith’s take: Salisbury 35, Kean 21
Pat’s take: Salisbury 35, Kean 17

Delaware Valley Bracket
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 49, Monmouth 27
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 27, Monmouth 21
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 45, Monmouth 24

Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 38, St. John Fisher 21
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley 20, St. John Fisher 10
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher 24, Delaware Valley 21

Mary Hardin-Baylor Bracket
Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, McMurry 24
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 38, McMurry 23
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, McMurry 24

Ryan’s take: Wesley 28, Linfield 27
Keith’s take: Linfield 24, Wesley 20
Pat’s take: Linfield 35, Wesley 34

Mount Union Bracket
Ryan’s take: Wabash 24,  North Central 21
Keith’s take: North Central 28, Wabash 20
Pat’s take: North Central 31, Wabash 20

Ryan’s take: Mount Union 41, Centre 14
Keith’s take: Mount Union 42, Centre 17
Pat’s take: Mount Union 50, Centre 13

Centre · Delaware Valley · Franklin · Kean · Linfield · Monmouth · Mount Union · North Central · Salisbury · St. John Fisher · St. Thomas · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Wesley

Will Kean win in its first-ever playoff game? Our crew says … Kean athletics photo

You’ve probably been reading all week about the uniqueness of this year’s playoff setup, with a spread-out bracket, a team with two Division III losses getting an at-large bid and some likeable and loatheable pairings. You’ve heard large amounts of analysis and predictions — some of which will come true and others that won’t.

But you’re still hungry for more, right?

From now until the third weekend in December, Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps will not only pick the winners of games, but we’ll also project the scores. It’s a transparent test of our perceptions week in and week out. (And we each make our picks independently.)

These postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of expectations vs. outcome.

How does this work?

• First, look at the scoring margin. If they are predicted to be a close game, we think the teams are evenly matched.
• Second, look at the winners. If it’s a three-man sweep, we think there’s a clear favorite. If it’s a split decision, it’s definitely a toss-up.
• Third, look at the total points. If most of us predict a lot of points, you can expect a shootout. Weather permitting, of course.

It’s not a competition between the three of us, so we have no stake in being right — we’d rather see you show off your smarts in the bracket challenge. Ryan, Keith and Pat aren’t keeping score, but usually the first weekend, each picks between 10 and 14 correct winners, often in the ballpark of the actual final. That means these Triple Take picks set the expectation, but we know at least a few teams will surprise us in the opening round. Will it be yours?

If you don’t feel your team is getting enough love, rather than complain, explain to us in the comments section below why they’re going to win. And if you’re feeling prescient, leave your final score guesses for any or all games below, and be sure to come back afterward to see how you did. There’ll be a live blog running here on The Daily Dose during Saturday’s games, and all tweets with hashtag #d3fb are included.

For more info on the 32-team race to Salem, including the brackets, info on each team and feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 52, Albion 10
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 49, Albion 7
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 54, Albion 6

Ryan’s take: Thomas More 33, Franklin 30
Keith’s take: Franklin 35, Thomas More 21
Pat’s take: Thomas More 34, Franklin 28

Ryan’s take: Kean 31, Christopher Newport 20
Keith’s take: Kean 22, Christopher Newport 12
Pat’s take: Kean 27, Christopher Newport 13

Ryan’s take: Salisbury 49, Western New England 7
Keith’s take: Salisbury 56, Western New England 14
Pat’s take: Salisbury 62, Western New England 7

Delaware Valley Bracket
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 38, St. Scholastica 10
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 49, St. Scholastica 0
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 70, St. Scholastica 8

Ryan’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 27, Monmouth 20
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 35, Monmouth 33
Pat’s take: Monmouth 27, Illinois Wesleyan 24

Ryan’s take: St. John Fisher 28, Johns Hopkins 23
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, St. John Fisher 21
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher 28, Johns Hopkins 24

Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 38, Norwich 7
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley 28, Norwich 9
Pat’s take: Delaware Valley 49, Norwich 6

Mary Hardin-Baylor Bracket
Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Redlands 17
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Redlands 24
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 56, Redlands 21

Ryan’s take: McMurry 45, Trinity 13
Keith’s take: McMurry 24, Trinity 17
Pat’s take: McMurry 35, Trinity 21

Ryan’s take: Cal Lutheran 38, Linfield 35
Keith’s take: Linfield 28, Cal Lutheran 24
Pat’s take: Linfield 42, Cal Lutheran 37

Ryan’s take: Wesley 42, Hobart 10
Keith’s take: Wesley 35, Hobart 17
Pat’s take: Wesley 40, Hobart 13

Mount Union Bracket
Ryan’s take: Wabash 45, Illinois College 17
Keith’s take: Wabash 30, Illinois College 16
Pat’s take: Wabash 38, Illinois College 3

Ryan’s take: North Central 33, Dubuque 13
Keith’s take: North Central 38, Dubuque 35
Pat’s take: North Central 54, Dubuque 28

Ryan’s take: Hampden-Sydney 42, Centre 38
Keith’s take: Centre 37, Hampden-Sydney 35
Pat’s take: Centre 27, Hampden-Sydney 21

Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Benedictine 3
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Benedictine 0
Pat’s take: Mount Union 56, Benedictine 6

Albion · Benedictine · Cal Lutheran · Centre · Christopher Newport · Delaware Valley · Dubuque · Franklin · Hampden-Sydney · Hobart · Illinois College · Illinois Wesleyan · Johns Hopkins · Kean · Linfield · Mary Hardin-Baylor · McMurry · Monmouth · Mount Union · North Central · Norwich · Redlands · Salisbury · St. John Fisher · St. Scholastica · St. Thomas · Thomas More · Trinity (Texas) · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Wesley · Western New England

Joe Wojceichowski and the Widener defense will try to shut down Delaware Valley. Widener athletics photo

The intensity of rivalries is virtually unmatched. The players become more focused, the crowd more vibrant. Alumni flood to stadiums, and memories are dredged up. A win against a rival opponent can rescue an otherwise sour season. And it makes Saturday night celebrations so much sweeter.

Across the country, rivalries will be taking place Saturday as the regular season comes to a close and the playoff prowess in a few remaining conferences shakes out.

Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps walk you through the action, with Selection Sunday right on the horizon.

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: Huntingdon at No. 7 Wesley. It’s been a couple of years now since the Wolverines were in a position in which losing the regular season finale would likely mean no playoff performance. But there are question marks for Saturday. Wesley’s loss to Kean earlier in the year made perfection necessary for the final eight games of the season. And Huntingdon won’t be a pushover. The Hawks have already dealt losses to teams that currently stand at 8-1 and 7-2. Could a team like Wesley, which has been to the national semifinals each of the past two seasons, get left out in the cold entirely? Their performance Saturday will be telling.
Keith’s take: Wherever you’re headed. The other guys nail the games with the farthest-rippling playoff implications. So I’ll go ahead and cop out, under the premise that there’s no need to single out a game when we have five conference championships decided (NEFC, NJAC, MAC, LL and NWC), rivalry games from Indiana to Massachusetts to Virginia — and Iowa and Pennsylvania — that make or break seasons. And beyond that, it’s Week 11 — the last game of the season for all but 32 playoff teams and 14 ECAC bowl-bound squads. Hundreds of seniors will hang it up after this. Parents will see their son play one last time, and tailgate grills will make a final appearance before heading into the garage for offseason storage. So I’ll play the Jon Gruden “everything’s awesome” role. Because, you know, it is.
Pat’s take: Widener at No. 11 Delaware Valley. Literally, you can’t do a playoff projection without the result of this game, and there are a lot of factors. Let’s see, Delaware Valley has this tremendously backloaded schedule, with Lycoming and Widener at the end. The Aggies haven’t looked very much like the young team that they are this season. Widener surprised Delaware Valley last year and sent them on a course for Mount Union in the second round, so the rivalry got amped up a little higher and Delaware Valley has even more motivation. But what could be more motivating than the only chance Widener has to get a playoff bid?

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: No. 12 Johns Hopkins at McDaniel. Part of the motivation here is seeing JHU almost drop their matchup against Franklin and Marshall last week, a team that should have been handled easily by the high-powered Blue Jays. However, what makes McDaniel a thinker in this situation is its track record this year: of the Green Terror’s seven losses, five were by eight points or less. McDaniel hasn’t really been able to bring all the pieces together to get wins, but the team has been able to hang around long enough to make it interesting. This Saturday’s game will be interesting, too.
Keith’s take: Trine at Albion. Maybe surprising only in the sense that the Britons are playoff-bound no matter the outcome, and Trine — the dominant MIAA program of the past few seasons picked up two conferences losses by mid-October. But I’m not sure I expect Albion to win, observing from afar. After an impressive five-game stretch, the Britons outgained DePauw 380-126 last week but managed just three points. Trine is the MIAA’s top rush offense (179 yards/game) and Albion is the top rush defense (96 yards). Should be a fun one.
Pat’s take: UW-La Crosse at No. 1 UW-Whitewater. UW-La Crosse gave UW-Whitewater a decent game in the season opener. It’s not likely to be the same close game it was in September, but it will be interesting to see how the teams have grown since Week 1 … not to mention how Whitewater might do if it needed to use Levell Coppage in the fourth quarter.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 18 Franklin. Over the past four weeks, the Grizzlies have progressively played their way through the bottom four teams in the HCAC, starting with 4-5 Rose-Hulman and ending with 0-9 Earlham. So how will they react to all of sudden having to play a more competitive team again? Franklin is unquestionably the better team in this matchup, but Hanover’s advantage is being able to push Franklin enough to throw the Grizzlies off their game. This is a rivalry game, too, played for the Victory Bell. Hanover will be well aware of the fact that this is the last game of their season, win or lose. The Panthers will surely want to win.
Keith’s take: No. 9 Wabash. Just kidding Little Giants fans. Admit it, you got mad there for a second. No. 22 Bethel is my real pick. And with the 10th best rushing offense in the country at 279 yards a game, and with the No. 14 total defense, the Royals probably are just an unfortunate version of the team that played in a national semifinal last season. That said, it’s not easy to force yourself to play just for pride, and that appears to be all the Royals have left when they face 6-3 Augsburg in the Metrodome. Bethel and Augsburg had similar results against St. Thomas and St. Olaf, but only the Royals have to realize there’s no long playoff run ahead this year, just a long football-free December like most of are used to, and turning that into positive motivation.
Pat’s take: No. 13 Redlands. Last year, Redlands barely beat Chapman, finishing 8-1. The previous two years, Redlands lost in Week 11 to finish 7-2 each season and miss out on any shot at the playoffs. Not going to say any more.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg. A win in the Mules’ crosstown rivalry game against Moravian would position them well for an ECAC postseason game. Muhlenberg stumbled a couple of times during the season but showed they could compete with the likes of Delaware Valley and Johns Hopkins. The team’s seniors certainly remember the special run the Mules had during their freshman year, and they’ll certainly be eager to channel that energy again.
Keith’s take: UW-Platteville. If the Pioneers can beat UW-Stevens Point for a second time, they’ll finish 7-3 and go down as the best team not to beat anybody great, but to only lose to really good teams. The three losses are to Wheaton, UW-Whitewater and UW-Oshkosh, which are 22-5 combined. A seventh win would also eclipse the best record of the D3football.com era, a 6-4 mark in 2004.
Pat’s take: UW-River Falls. The Falcons started the season 0-8, but had two close losses at home, then won at UW-La Crosse last week to snap the losing streak. River Falls returns home this week to face UW-Eau Claire.

Rivalry game you’re most interested in (alma maters excluded).
Ryan’s take: Amherst at Williams. No matter what, this is the end of the road for both of these teams, which opt not to compete in the playoffs. So at stake is pride: the Ephs’ pride in keeping Amherst from an undefeated 2011 season; the Lord Jeffs’ pride in avenging last year’s loss. If you don’t know the history between these two schools, look it up. It’s unlikely that any two institutions have claim to a more natural rivalry than these two. And it’s rare for them to produce anything but a captivating game.
Keith’s take: Coe at Cornell. Okay, you can get Curt Menefee to pose in a “beat Cornell” shirt. Probably could get Fred Jackson too. But as long as I’ve been writing rivalry stories, I’ve never been able to say anything about this game but that they’ve played it for a long time (121 and counting). Am I just not talking to the right people? The two teams have followed each other from the MWC to the IIAC and are going their separate ways as Cornell heads back to the MWC, but I’m interested in whether fans in Iowa really care about this rivalry.
Pat’s take: No. 14 Kean at No. 15 Montclair State. Okay, so it won’t appear on too many lists of great rivalries but I’m going to go ahead and pick it here because there should be plenty of bad blood … or blood, anyway … to go with what’s on the line in this game, for the NJAC title. Kean coach Dan Garrett and both of his coordinators played at Montclair, which is just 18 miles from Kean, in northern New Jersey.

Who will have the least momentum going into the playoffs?
Ryan’s take: Albion. The Britons have to be scratching their heads after last weekend’s loss to DePauw and should have spent this week learning how to once again become in tune with their offensive mojo. Even though Trine doesn’t have the luster of the last couple of seasons, the team still knows how to force turnovers and run the ball down its opponent’s throat. Albion knows how to handle the run — usually — and the ability to stop that will help them with their confidence going into the playoffs. However, it won’t be a surprise if Albion is an eighth seed in the region, which wouldn’t be doing them any favors. The mental hurdle will be as tough as the physical one.
Keith’s take: St. Thomas. They’re 10-0, sure. But they don’t have a game this Saturday. So I guess it depends how you define momentum.
Pat’s take: Thomas More. Regardless of whether Thomas More wins this week or not, the Saints are already back on their heels after the loss to Waynesburg. Thomas More went solely from being a heavy favorite to being a favorite against Mount St. Joseph in their local rivalry game, but either way, the damage has been done.

Which team can alter its fortunes the most?
Ryan’s take: Lewis and Clark. The question isn’t which team “will,” but rather which team “can.” And the Pioneers certainly can. A win at Linfield puts L&C — a team just three seasons removed from a long string of 0- and 1-win seasons — in the playoffs. On the flip side, a loss for the Pioneers means they’ll be sitting at home next week.
Keith’s take: Hampden-Sydney. Besides Widener and the other teams that can play their way into the playoffs with wins, H-SC could change course the most on Saturday. A win over 7-2 Randolph-Macon continues the Tigers’ dominance in the series and gives them an advantage in recruiting. A loss could mean the difference between a home playoff game against somebody like Christopher Newport, Centre or Thomas More, or a road game at Salisbury, Wesley or Johns Hopkins.
Pat’s take: Trinity (Texas). Not sure it’s in a positive way, however. Austin has to be motivated to not finish the season 0-10. The Kangaroos have been fairly decent at home while the Tigers have struggled a little bit on the road.

Albion · Amherst · Augsburg · Bethel · Chapman · Coe · Cornell · Delaware Valley · Franklin · Hampden-Sydney · Hanover · Huntingdon · Johns Hopkins · Kean · Lewis and Clark · Linfield · McDaniel · Montclair State · Moravian · Mount St. Joseph · Muhlenberg · Redlands · St. Thomas · Thomas More · Trine · Trinity (Texas) · UW-Eau Claire · UW-Platteville · UW-River Falls · UW-Whitewater · Wabash · Wesley · Widener · Williams