Around the Nation Podcast 221: What do you want to know?

Posted on November 5, 2018 by Pat Coleman

The number of teams in the tournament now is up to 13 teams which have clinched automatic bid to the 2018 Division III playoffs. But even though some parts of the Division III playoff picture got clearer, others got cloudier — and that’s even assuming you could see the picture on Saturday. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say some of us were shut out of some of the big games.

We went mailbag this week and let your Twitter questions guide us through the first half of the podcast, talking about which regions seemed most likely to get at-large bids, whether Brockport would get a No. 1 seed or two teams from the West Region might get the nod. Would Baldwin Wallace get an at-large bid with a loss on Saturday? With a win?

Plus game balls, the week’s interesting stats and more in the latest D3football.com Around the Nation podcast. The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

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Full episode:

D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast [ 42:27 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

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Link: NCAA Division III playoff criteria, from our FAQ
Link: Playoff primer podcast (No. 216, with committee chair Jim Catanzaro)

Photo: Plymouth State athletics photo of Framingham State receiver Napoleon Miller

Theme music: DJmentos.

Around the Nation Podcast 220: Saturday’s scenarios

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Pat Coleman

This is where we get to crunch time. We could hand out as many as 15 of the 23 remaining automatic bids to the NCAA Division III playoffs on Saturday, and so you can follow along, we go through each of the remaining conferences, rather exhaustively, to tell you who can clinch on Saturday, what they need to do, and who might be waiting until Week 11.

All 122 games on Saturday will take place in an 11-hour period, meaning results are going to be coming in fast and furious. Before the games start, set aside some time to get Pat and Keith’s take on what will happen in Week 10. Plus, Adam Turer joins in to talk about his story about Wabash in Thursday’s ATN column and what he takes away from the experience. And our guest is Hanover coach Matt Theobald, who is hoping his team can pull off two big wins and garner itself a share of the HCAC title.

The D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast is a regular conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan and guests covering the wide range of Division III football.

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device.
Full episode:

D3football.com Around the Nation Podcast [ 1:15:54 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Link: NCAA Division III playoff criteria, from our FAQ
Link: Playoff primer podcast (No. 216, with committee chair Jim Catanzaro)

Photo: 15 schools could clinch on Saturday. (File photos)

Theme music: DJmentos.

Quick Hits: For the birds

Posted on October 19, 2018 by Pat Coleman

Eagles, Cardinals — perhaps not more fierce than Bears or … more Bears, I suppose. But those are the focus this week in Week 8 of the 2018 Division III football season.

Our regular crew is Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer and Frank Rossi. Our sixth spot each week goes to a guest prognosticator, and this week’s is Logan Hansen. You may remember him as the Wartburg alumnus who does a computer ranking of D-III teams, and he is on twitter at @LogHanRatings.

— Pat Coleman

Which game is the Week 8 game of the week?

Keith’s take: UW-La Crosse at No. 12 UW-Oshkosh. This should be closer than the rankings suggest, and could upset the playoff apple cart.	Ryan’s take: No. 17 Illinois Wesleyan at Washington U. The Bears’ win last week over Wheaton put them on everyone’s radars, and this is another tough test.	Pat’s take: No. 17 Illinois Wesleyan at Washington U. I priced out flights to St. Louis for this one. Not in the budget.
Adam’s take: UW-La Crosse at No. 12 UW-Oshkosh. Plenty to choose from this week, but this is essentially a WIAC and playoff elimination game.	Frank’s take: Hobart at No. 19 RPI. This could have Pool C implications if Hobart wins. RPI’s strength of schedule is excellent and will improve — a 1-loss RPI could win an at-large bid.	Logan’s take: No. 17 IWU at Wash U. I’m not sure which result would throw the bigger wrench into the tiebreakers, but Wash. U has shown they belong, and IWU has shown last season wasn’t a fluke.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 15 North Central. Carthage pushed UW-O, IWU and Millikin to the brink, so NCC best bring its A game.	Ryan’s take: No. 12 UW-Oshkosh. Though Oshkosh is coming off a real quality win, UW-La Crosse has shown more than a few flashes of greatness this fall.	Pat’s take: No. 17 Illinois Wesleyan. I look forward to learning if it really is as tough for teams to win in St. Louis as it is for Chicagoland teams in Bloomington.
Adam’s take: No. 19 RPI. Hobart and the Engineers have both played their share of nailbiters this season. The Statesmen win another close one.	Frank’s take: No. 17 Illinois Wesleyan. WashU at home, following a win vs. Wheaton … I’ll play the momentum as the Titans have looked mediocre in wins lately.	Logan’s take: No. 17 Illinois Wesleyan. The model has Wash. U favored by a field goal, 28-25.

Whose unbeaten run comes to an end this week?

Keith’s take: Marietta. The Grey Pioneers allow 31.8 points per game, which is way too loose to beat John Carroll.	Ryan’s take: Marietta. I expect this one to be a popular pick, as the Pioneers are facing John Carroll this week.	Pat’s take: Kalamazoo. Kzoo’s 6-0 isn’t far from Alma’s 1-5, just a different schedule. Similar results vs. Adrian and Albion.
Adam’s take: Marietta. The Pioneers travel to No. 10 John Carroll, and leave with their first loss of 2018. Also, RPI.	Frank’s take: Western Connecticut. The Bridgewater State Bears have been stalking the frontrunners of the MASCAC — a win would give them a chance for the playoffs.	Logan’s take: Central. There’s a reason they haven’t cracked the Top 25 yet, because they haven’t beaten a proven team (except maybe DePauw). Wartburg by a TD according to the model.

Which game are you following that nobody else on this panel is following?

Keith’s take: FDU-Florham at Misericordia. The former could hit five wins for the first time since 2000; the latter had won five ever before this year & now five straight.	Ryan’s take: Hanover at Manchester. I’ve enjoyed watching the Panthers’ resurgence this season. It’s reminiscent to how I remember them from the late ’90s.	Pat’s take: Luther at Nebraska Wesleyan. It’s part of my 25-game tour of D3 from west to east from the podcast.
Adam’s take: Central at Wartburg. The Dutch could also fall from the ranks of the unbeaten, and the ARC race could turn into a logjam at the top.	Frank’s take: No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor at Belhaven. UMHB wins, but will the Cru finally resolve their QB contest? Two (let alone, three)-QB systems aren’t optimal, and could be a problem in playoffs.	Logan’s take: Emory & Henry at Shenandoah. If I’m picking a random game to watch, it would be this — the model has the spread at -3 Shenandoah, with an O/U of 93.5. Gonna get pointsy.

Which team is probably safe to focus more on next week?

Keith’s take: Muhlenberg. By the fourth quarter vs. McDaniel, the Mules will allow themselves to ponder Week 9 vs. Johns Hopkins.	Ryan’s take: No. 16 Trine. Opponent Finlandia has a long way before it’ll be competitive at Trine’s level.	Pat’s take: St. Thomas. Carleton has improved this season but won’t be a match for the Tommies.
Adam’s take: Endicott. No coach would approve of this question, but Paul McGonagle’s team faces winless Becker a week before taking on its top CCC competition, Western New England.	Frank’s take: Trinity (Conn.). In a topsy-turvy NESCAC race, Bowdoin is winless. Next up would be Middlebury, the team that shocked Williams last weekend.	Logan’s take: Muhlenberg and Johns Hopkins. Both teams are greater than 97% favorites this week, and most computer models (not mine) think they’re both Top 10 teams.

Who has the edge this week: Cardinals or Eagles?

Keith’s take: Eagles. It’s five against seven, and the Eagles have Brockport and UW-La Crosse on their side.	Ryan’s take: Eagles. In terms of both quantity and quality (see my upset pick above).	Pat’s take: Eagles. But only because of the Golden Eagles of Brockport. Without them, the Cardinals would take it.
Adam’s take: Eagles. Thanks to the Golden variety, ranked No. 3 and hosting Buffalo State.	Frank’s take: Neither. Cardinals: North Central, St. John Fisher; Eagles: Brockport, Husson.	Logan’s take: Eagles. Brockport and Husson basically guaranteed to win. 2.1 expected wins for Cardinals, 2.8 for Eagles.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Fridays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.