Triple Take: Let’s get this 2015 thing started

Posted on September 3, 2015 by Keith McMillan

It’s been a long time since we last saw a Division III game that counted. The Stagg Bowl was way back on Dec. 19, a mere 258 days ago. It’s been a longer wait for the 240-odd teams whose seasons ended before Salem, and still longer for McMurry, which returns to D-III after leaving following the 2011 season. Belhaven comes over from NAIA, and has never played a D-III game; Neither has Finlandia, which plays its program’s first game Saturday against Alma.

There are six Thursday night games, 12 on Friday and 92 on Saturday. Subtract the seven non-D-III opponents, and 195 of the record 247 teams that will play D-III football this season are in action on opening weekend.

Enjoy it. Whether you’re playing, watching or involved in game day some other way, it’s a three-hour break from everything else in the world. It’s a chance to see old friends and make new ones, to watch some players dig deep and pull out something from inside that they didn’t even know they had. It’s a chance to watch student-athletes who won’t forgo the first part of that deal.

I played tackle football for 13 consecutive seasons, between Pop Warner in Somerville, Mass., high school in Runnemede, N.J. and at Randolph-Macon in Ashland, Va. In that picture below, which was taken in one of my first seasons writing for D3football.com, I’m 23. Which reminds me that I’ve now not been playing football for more consecutive autumns than I played. All of which is to say, this weekend, if you’re a player, coach, parent or fan, take it all in and savor it. It goes by quickly. Teams only get eight to ten game days a season, unless they play really well and advance through the playoffs. But as those accustomed to playing 15 weeks would tell you, greatness happens one game at a time (a UW-Whitewater standard) and starts with respecting your opponent (something I’ve heard more than once at Mount Union).

Respect the game. Enjoy it. Savor it. Finally, it’s back.

— Keith McMillan

Triple Take is our weekly predictions column. Typically it appears on Friday morning, but with games kicking off on Thursday night, we’re presenting it a few hours early.

Game of the week

Keith’s take: No. 19 St. John Fisher at No. 23 Thomas More. You can’t really go wrong with a clash of ranked teams to kick things off. There’s lots to see here; The Saints (that’s Thomas More, not the school with ‘Saint’ in its name) opened with Wesley last year and stood up to the national power in a 35-21 loss. This game will be a challenge as well, and maybe one the Saints can pull off on the way to a PAC title. But TMC will have to do it without graduated All-American running back Domonique Hayden. SJFC is among the best in an expanded Empire 8, and the Cardinals will have a rough game nearly every week. They can’t afford to start 0-1.

Ryan’s take: No. 10 Wabash at Hampden-Sydney. As a Wabash grad, I’m coming out of the Triple Take gate playing the homer card. Wabash will probably be a better team than it was in 2014; Sydney is projected to be down a little. But that doesn’t take away from the quality of this matchup. As I talked about last year in my preseason Around the Nation column, the meeting between them is historic, as Wabash and H-SC are the only two D-III schools that abide by an all-male classroom atmosphere. And this is the first home-and-home series between them on the gridiron. I had talked with coaches and administrators at the schools as far back as 2008 about something like this taking place, and I’m excited that their enthusiasm translated into reality. Last year finished with a 34-21 Wabash win in Indiana. Kudos to both schools for putting a challenging nonconference game on their schedules. (Also, this is where I’ll be spending opening weekend.)

Pat’s take: Rowan at No. 12 Widener. There are a lot of good games this week, right out of the chute. I like this one, in part because it’s now Rowan’s only non-conference game, and I wouldn’t mind at all if these teams played every year. There’s reason to have at least a couple of questions about Widener this year, based on who graduated, but I’ll also be intrigued to see how Rowan’s retooled offense works out. Goodbye spread, hello power offense. Should be interesting. Rowan would like nothing more than to slip back across the Commodore Barry Bridge with a signature win.

Surprisingly close game

Keith’s take: MIT at WPI. The Engineers … oh wait, they’re both Engineers. MIT had a magical undefeated season last year, but they pulled out multiple close wins, and that will be difficult to replicate, especially with five of the first six games on the road. I think they do it once more in this Week 1 Friday nighter, even though Zach Grasis and WPI will grind it out and make MIT earn it.

Ryan’s take: Mount St. Joseph at Augustana. I’m not ready yet to buy into this Lions team as being one of the better ones of recent years — we’ll see in a few weeks if they’re competing for the HCAC’s title. They lost a lot of starters and will have to break in a new (potentially young) quarterback. Last year, Mount St. Joseph showed no mercy against Augustana, being up 37-17 going into the fourth quarter before surging to a 58-25 win. Augustana has a new coach and is tailoring its offensive approach, giving them room to put more points on the board this time around.

Pat’s take: Alma at Finlandia. I mean, Finlandia isn’t surprisingly close to anyone in a geographic sense. Alma is the closest in-state rival and the Scots will still need to take a seven-hour bus ride to get to Finlandia. (I’m closer and I live two states away.) I’m hoping for a good game in Finlandia’s first-ever football game. A win might be too much to ask for but Alma (six wins in four seasons) hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire of late.

Most likely Top 25 team to be upset

Keith’s take: No. 12 Widener, against Rowan. Considering Thomas More over St. John Fisher would be fudging, this is the only logical option. The Profs bring back their star on offense, might find a role for a former star from Lafayette, and will take a short trip over the bridge, possibly bringing along the support a home team would have. Rowan isn’t favored against a Widener team that was in last season’s final eight, but they have a shot.

Ryan’s take: No. 20 Bethel. There’s not much jumping out in the inaugural week of college football as a safe — or even likely — bet for this category. Bethel graduated its conference MVP-winning quarterback, so if there’s ever going to be rust on the wheels that a team like UW-Stout could exploit, it’s going to be in Week 1.

Pat’s take: None. And considering this is the first week, and the first-week poll always has the most questions, that’s saying something. I’ve mentioned Widener above and there’s another team out there who tends to struggle with its Week 1 opponent but honestly, they always win when I pick against them so it’s time to stop trying. Chalk in Week 1.

Which team that finished strong in 2014 is going to have the biggest Week 1 letdown?

Keith’s take: Curry. The Colonels won their final three after an 0-7 start, but it was slightly misleading, because two of the wins were against 1-9 Nichols and 3-6 Maine Maritime. To start 2015 off right, Curry must win under the lights on Friday night at Bridgewater State, which brings back seven on each side of the ball from a 5-5 team. The Colonels have about the same number of starters back, and the benefit of unfamiliarity; The schools, not far from one another in Massachusetts, south of Boston, did not play last season.

Ryan’s take: Rowan. The Profs ended the last regular season with three straight wins, a share of the NJAC conference title and a trip to the playoffs. But also like last year, they’ll kickoff another season going up against Widener. The thoroughly battle-tested Pride are shaping up to be just as formidable as they proved to be in 2014, and the Profs are going to have a tough go of it right from the start.

Pat’s take: Morrisville State (vs. St. Lawrence). This is the week we’ll get to find out how much of the Mustangs’ 2014 surge was the Lemar Johnson show. Meanwhile, St. Lawrence has legitimate reasons to think it can contend for the playoffs, and not in a 5-5, manage-to-snag-the-automatic-bid way. SLU slipped early last season but isn’t likely to let that happen again.

Which lopsided matchup would you most like to be more competitive?

Keith’s take: No.13 Johns Hopkins at Randolph-Macon. In Week 1 last year, my alma mater was a seven-win team with its star quarterback back, going up to face the perennially ranked Blue Jays. They lost, 42-3. The quarterback is now a member of the coaching staff. And Johns Hopkins is still ranked 13th. Do I need more than that?

Ryan’s take: Guilford at Greensboro. I’m certainly not begrudging Guilford for stepping up its game and showing on the field that it is ready and determined to make a playoff run this fall. But this crosstown rivalry represents something more than just a W or an L for the teams — it’s also charity event known as the Gate City Soup Bowl. People who come get their admission fee waived if they bring canned goods to donate. Success of the food drive means getting people to the stadium; getting them to the stadium means presenting them with an exciting game to watch. Guilford has owned most of the history of this series, capped with last year’s 52-0 victory. It would be fun to see these two teams grind out a close matchup in this 19th meeting, but I fear that may not come to pass.

Pat’s take: Bethany at No. 2 Mount Union. I mean, just for variety’s sake. Let’s see the new Mount Union offense put through its paces for more than a couple of quarters. Not expecting anything outlandish, but wouldn’t it be nice to see the Machine need to disengage the cruise control?

Pick a color: Green or yellow

Keith’s take: Yes. We’ll be watching to see if Illinois Wesleyan (green) is a CCIW challenger, in its opener against usually-the-class-of-the-HCAC Franklin (yellow). Since I’m supposed to choose, give me our preseason No. 59 IWU, with its eight returning starters on offense and nine on D, in a mild upset over No. 50. Kickoff projected the Titans to go 8-2 off a 4-6 2014.

Ryan’s take: Green, of Belhaven. Good riddance to the NAIA and welcome to Division III! And, of course, welcome back to D-III Coach Mumme. It’s likely the Blazers will begin their tenure here with a win.

Pat’s take: Green. With St. Norbert, under a new coach again, its third in three years, hosting Carthage, which has fallen so far that they’re a unanimous pick to finish behind North Park, the CCIW’s doormat of the decades.

They’ll be on your radar

Keith’s take: McMurry. Both teams in the St. Lawrence-Morrisville State game intrigue me, but since Pat touched on that one above, and Ryan mentioned Belhaven, let’s go with the War Hawks. I’m curious about what kind of team they’ll field after recruiting scholarship athletes in Texas for a few years, only to lose some of them when they moved back to a non-scholarship model.

Ryan’s take: Stevenson. The Mustangs made some noise en route to their best performance in the MAC ever. But can they sustain having improved their record so drastically? Moreover, can they really make the surge count and compete for a title spot (or at least a Pool C bid)? The opener against N.C. Wesleyan is winnable, but it’ll be more challenging this year to put up 40 points like in 2014.

Pat’s take: Delaware Valley. Also green, and yellow (OK, really it’s gold). And those things I said about what Widener lost over the offseason go triple for Del Val, which lost an NFL prospect wide receiver, one of its best-ever quarterbacks, and basically starts over in terms of returning starters. But Montclair doesn’t have the type of offense that will let them run away and hide from people, so I expect the Aggies to hang in this game and keep it close longer than one might otherwise expect from them this season. Should be an interesting year in Doylestown, Pa.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks that were prescient, and those that were terribly off base.

Triple take Week 11: It all comes down to this

Posted on November 14, 2014 by Keith McMillan

Delaware Valley picked off Seth Klein twice in last year’s Keystone Cup game. He has thrown only two interceptions in the nine games since. (Widener athletics photo)

With all due respect to the pinnacle that is the Stagg Bowl, Week 11 is the most fun Division III can have, considering its all-inclusive nature. From the top-10 OAC clash to the multiple teams in the conference championship mix in the NACC and ODAC to Anna Maria facing Becker with each team vying for its first and only win of the season, there’s something on the line almost everywhere. If teams aren’t playing for a playoff spot outright, they’re playing for a bell or a jug or some other proof that they’ve beaten their rival. Some teams are just playing to go into the offseason on a positive note.

Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps and I make sense of this week’s slate, with a clear slant towards games with playoff implications. We’ll be here until the Stagg Bowl, of course, but if this is your last time joining us for predictions, thanks for enjoying another 11-week rush of a regular season with us.

— Keith McMillan

Game of the week
Keith’s take: No. 6 John Carroll at No. 3 Mount Union. If we’ve spent the season making almost no predictions about these two teams because they’ve made their wins look comically easy — the Purple Raiders are outscoring opponents by an average of 64-6, and the Blue Streaks 55-7 — then it’s only fair to thrust the spotlight on them now. Not only have they earned the recognition, but there’s actual intrigue when they’re facing one another. The teams met under similar circumstances last year, and Mount Union took a 35-13 lead on the way to a 42-34 win. The Blue Streaks, with six home games already in the books, play at Mount Union for the second year in a row because of the OAC’s normal schedule reshuffling. It’s a matchup of the nation’s No. 1 and 2 scoring offenses and total defenses (UW-Whitewater is wedged between the two in the top 3 of scoring defense). And on top of all that, the most accomplished player on either team, Mount Union QB Kevin Burke, tweeted midweek that the social-media yapping can stop, because the game is won on the field Saturday. While it’d be interesting, for the sake of change, if Mount Union lost and went on the road in the playoffs at some point, we’ve been conditioned to expect regular-season win No. 93 in a row for UMU.
Ryan’s take: No. 16 Delaware Valley at No. 12 Widener. It helps my thinking that I profiled this game in this week’s Around the Nation column. The bottom line is that these two Keystone Cup rivals have never come into this game both being 9-0. The winner is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, but the loser is as close to an at-large lock as one could imagine. These two teams have dominated the MAC over the past decade, and both are averaging more than 40 points a game this season. This is Division III at its best.
Pat’s take: Also No. 6 John Carroll at No. 3 Mount Union. There aren’t enough words to describe how much we’ve been waiting for this game. But also, John Carroll really needs to play this game. It’s the first big test for the Blue Streaks since they lost at home in the first round of the playoffs last season and they have floated to No. 6 on the strength of other teams’ losses and their own pasting of overmatched opponents. The OAC has a bunch of really young programs (to put it mildly) who have proved to be no match for the two at the top and John Carroll has to perform well to be taken seriously in Week 12.

Surprisingly close game
Keith’s take: No. 16 Washington and Jefferson at Waynesburg. Nobody’s talking about this game because the PAC has been clinched, and effectively over for weeks. Waynesburg is 7-2, however, with five games decided by seven points or fewer, including a one-touchdown loss to Thomas More last week. The Presidents are third nationally in total offense (553.4 yards/game) and sixth in scoring (47.7 points) and could use this as a tune-up for the postseason. But if they get caught looking ahead, it could be more of a struggle than they’d prefer.
Ryan’s take: Hendrix at Sewanee. The Tigers are coming off one of their best weeks of the season, while the Warriors have lost two in a row. The Warriors, at 5-4, should be favored, but I think Sewanee is carrying some positive momentum with them to make this a good one.
Pat’s take: Any of a dozen East Coast games. Keep an eye on the weather and the snow cover at any of a bunch of games in the Mid-Atlantic, where a storm front that dumped up to 16 inches of snow near St. John’s was making its way late this week. Schools in the Midwest know how to deal with this snow a little better and had an extra day to clear it, plus St. John’s is playing two hours south, at St. Olaf, where the snow cover was minimal. Some sets of seniors are going to get to go out with some pretty cool (if not pretty cold) memories and weather tends to keep the scoring down, so there could be some unpredictability.

Most likely Top 25 team to lose:
Keith’s take: No. 4 Wesley. The Wolverines have their best team since the 2011 squad that nearly won at Mount Union to advance to the Stagg Bowl, and they beat Charlotte 35-28 last year, in that program’s first season. This time around, the 49ers are a different beast. They’re 3-6, but with five losses by eight points or fewer. And they haven’t been playing the dregs of FCS either — last week’s loss was to Coastal Carolina, who’s No. 1 and No. 2 in the FCS polls, and the week before, ranked James Madison beat them, 48-40. Most D-III teams have a handful of players who could be on scholarship in FCS or D-II; Charlotte has at least 85 such players. As big a point of pride as it was for Wesley to have beaten a scholarship program last season, it had to be that humbling for the 49ers. Coming off six straight losses and hungry for a win, and not likely to take the little ol’ Division III team lightly this year, Charlotte is going to be quite the mountain for Wesley to scale. The good news: The Wolverines have had two weeks to prepare, and won’t be knocked out of the D-III playoff picture with a loss.
Ryan’s take: No. 22 St. Thomas. We all expected to see Gustavus Adolphus slide at the end of the season, but the slide hasn’t been that drastic on the scoreboard. Yes, the Gusties are in a three-game skid to St. John’s, Bethel and Concordia-Morehead, but not one margin has been by more than 10 points. Common-opponent comparisons lend weight to what can happen on Saturday.
Pat’s take: No. 15 UW-Platteville. The UW-Oshkosh Titans have been served notice by the West Region committee that they are not simply playing out the string this year, that they have a chance at a playoff bid. Oshkosh is making its longest trip of the conference season and while it’s a long drive from northeast to southwest Wisconsin, they also get to escape the snow zone and should have a nice, dry surface to play on. Now, those elements probably favor an offensive-minded team such as Platteville, but Oshkosh has to see it has a chance to play on. This may be an elimination game for both teams, but Oshkosh is trying to prove that it is worthy of playoff consideration after losing three consecutive games to scholarship schools to open the season.

Which team can play itself into the postseason in Week 11?
Keith’s take: Emory & Henry, against Guilford. The Wasps may need to give the Yellow Jackets a buzz to call in a favor, but with a win against the 7-2 Quakers and a Randolph-Macon upset of Hampden-Sydney in The Game, first-year coach Curt Newsome and his team are playoff-bound. If the Wasps and Tigers both win, Hampden-Sydney gets the automatic bid by virtue of its head-t0-head 49-27 victory in October, and the Wasps are 9-1 but on the fringe of the Pool C picture. With a .478 strength of schedule (anything below .500 is not good) that should rise a bit after playing Guilford, and no wins over regionally-ranked opponents, they’d have a shaky case for an at-large bid when put up against other possible 9-1 teams like Wabash, the Mount Union/John Carroll loser, the Delaware Valley/Widener loser and perhaps Texas Lutheran. Guilford, with one of its losses coming to Hampden-Sydney, is basically blocked from getting in.
Ryan’s take: Husson, against Mount Ida. Husson (6-0 in conference play) owns leadership of most of the conference’s offensive stats and is second defensively allowing just 17 points a game. The one crucial spot where Mount Ida, which has just one conference loss, could gain an edge is if the Mustangs are able to win the turnover battle. That has proven effective for much of the season. Barring that, however, it looks like the Eagles should be able to punch their ticket to the playoffs and avoid a messy three-way tie at the top of the ECFC.
Pat’s take: Centre, at Birmingham-Southern. I mean, I have to believe this is still possible, despite the utterly bizarre way in which the South Region’s regional advisory committee ranked them. Surely the national committee will correct that error if Centre goes 10-0. Perhaps Centre will feel like it needs to beat the Panthers with style points in order to convince the committee it’s a legitimate 10-0 team. It’s not like we’re talking about Westminster (Mo.) 1999, folks. 10-0 against a representative Division III schedule belongs in the playoffs already. Why the drama?

Which team can play itself out of the postseason in Week 11?
Keith’s take: Texas Lutheran, against Southwestern. The Bulldogs should Marquis Ba-ROLL over the 1-7 Pirates. (Ugh, I can’t believe I typed that). Given Wednesday’s regional rankings, TLU looks like a good bet to get that playoff spot it missed last season, no doubt partially because it scheduled UMHB this year. The reward would be another trip to UMHB, and a chance to avenge a 72-16 Oct. 25 loss, but the Week 11 win has to come first. With Centre and Framingham State each breathing down the Bulldogs’ necks in Pool B, behind Stagg Bowl contender Wesley, there’s no margin for error. Regarding the Bulldogs, Colonels and Rams, the national committee is in a precarious position either way. TLU played UMHB, Framingham State played Rowan and Centre (208th-best strength of schedule, .441, this week) played no one that’s regionally ranked. So it might be reasonable to believe that if the Colonels had, they’d have the same blemish on their unbeaten record. If you look at who the three actually beat, only TLU has a win over a regionally ranked team, and none play a team of consequence in Week 11.
Ryan’s take: Wabash, against DePauw. I have to find a way to get a mention of the Monon Bell game in here, right? Bottom line is that DePauw has no chance of making the playoffs, but Wabash does. That kind of dynamic has made this game interesting in years past because rivals love nothing more than winning the trophy game – and spoiling the other’s playoff chances can be the perfect cherry on top. Even though the Little Giants lost last weekend, I like their playoff chances as a 9-1 team because of the Week 1 win over Hampden-Sydney. That’s a far more quality win than 2013’s win over Hanover; that year, Wabash finished 9-1 but was left out, in part, because of a weak strength of schedule. Wabash has more than just the bell at stake this weekend and needs to make this one count if the team hopes to play past Saturday.
Pat’s take: Ithaca, against Cortland State, hear me out. Here’s why — Ithaca can’t be excluded from the postseason if it loses on Saturday, it already has an automatic bid. But the Bombers can play themselves out of having a winnable playoff game if they lose to Cortland State. That would leave Ithaca 7-3, and they are driving distance to Wesley and Mount Union. Beating Cortland State gives Ithaca a chance at a winnable first-round playoff game as well as the Cortaca Jug.
Keith’s other take: Pacific, against Linfield. Sorry, couldn’t publish this without acknowledging the chance the Boxers have to do the improbable. Despite getting through September with only two losses and a cancellation, Pacific is 6-0 in NWC play, and has to go through the mighty national power to become a playoff automatic qualifier. The teams’ results against Willamette, which upset the Wildcats, then lost last week to the Boxers, makes this a believable possibility. I find it hard to believe the Wildcats would lose a clincher at the Catdome; For more on this game from a Linfield perspective, I recommend this post over at CatdomeAlumni.com, even though it takes a swipe at “national pundits” right in the middle of it.

Which team can play poorly in Week 11, but survive to play next week?
Keith’s take: Rowan, on Friday night at TCNJ. The NJAC’s tiebreaker is different than it was the last time it had three teams in the mix for a bid on the final week, and the Profs need only win to cash in some old chips. Even a 3-2 victory against one of D-III’s worst offenses (TCNJ is tied for 234th at 11 points per game, and 236th in total offense at 221 yards per game) would get it done. Because it held first-half leads in a 31-0 win over Morrisville State and a 20-16 loss to Montclair State, the two teams it is tied with atop the conference, Rowan is playoff-bound with any kind of win Friday. With a loss, Montclair would need only beat 2-7 Kean to get in. Morrisville State, 8-2 and off this week, needs two 2-7 teams to pull upsets to receive the automatic bid.
Ryan’s take: No. 4 Wesley. We haven’t said hardly a word about Wesley in weeks because the second half of their schedule was loaded with non-Division III opponents. Wesley is the caliber of team that we should be talking about each week, but until next year when the Wolverines join the NJAC, there’s just not much to say. Frankly, the games they are playing these last couple of weeks matter less to the D-III world than the other 100-plus games out there each week. Wesley wraps up the regular season playing Charlotte, a team that played Wesley well last year. Hopefully, that means Wesley will get a little better battle-tested this week than it has against, say, College of Faith or Menlo in the past month.
Pat’s take: Mount Union. I don’t expect the Purple Raiders to play poorly, but they are the one team I am sure can lose on Saturday and not suffer a significant impact to their playoff chances or their first-round opponent next week. The way the committee ranked teams this week, I don’t have a lot of optimism for other teams in the same situation.

They’ll be off the playoff radar, but on yours
Keith’s take: Wilmington and Tarrell Starckey. It’s kind of tough for me to care about any Week 11 game with no playoff implications unless it’s a rivalry game. But there are 217 teams in action this weekend in 110 games, and most of them are neither. Way on the other end of the spectrum are players like Starckey, a junior who averages 10.5 tackles per game for his career, and plays on a team that’s 0-9 this year but has a chance to finish with a win against 2-7 Muskingum. There are players like this who might never get a moment on the front page of D3football.com (and some who have, like Thomas More’s Domonique Hayden and Heidelberg’s Cartel Brooks, who are are also among the career leaders and are probably playing their last game) but who exhibit as much heart and represent “For the Love of the Game” as much as a Gagliardi Trophy winner.
Ryan’s take: The bye week of Thomas More and Mount St. Joseph. As an alumnus of a school with a great rivalry, I hate seeing any rivalry game get passed over, especially one that is so geographically sensible and is established enough to have a trophy. I miss you, Bridge Bowl.
Pat’s take: Union and RPI. Union leads the Dutchman Shoes rivalry 47-17 and the series with RPI, 80-27-4 or 81-26-4. That depends on whose records you believe for the 1886 game. However, RPI has won nine of the past 20 and has evenly split the past 10 meetings. This is a rivalry that has gotten much more competitive in the past two decades and is worthy of Week 11 status.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks that were prescient and off base.

Triple Take: Kicking off 2014 with ten predictions for Week 1

Posted on September 5, 2014 by Keith McMillan

There are some pretty high expectations on Satiir Stevenson and Guilford this season. (Photo by John Bell, www.touchalifephotography.com)

After a 36-week layoff, Division III football is back this weekend. To help pass the time leading up to the opening kick, we’ve provided you Kickoff, the comprehensive season preview, and a slate of fresh columns.

But opening week isn’t complete until Pat Coleman, the executive editor, Ryan Tipps, the senior editor-turned-Around the Nation columnist, and I (Keith McMillan, staff has-been) stick our necks out with predictions for Week 1’s games. We’ll tackle the Top 25 and the games on the fringes; If you have no idea what to pay attention to as the first week gets underway, we’ve got you covered.

Tipps has moved into the penthouse, which means I get to stop by his old digs, cooking up the Triple Take categories and having first dibs on answering. Since I’m drunk with power and ready to celebrate the 244-team race to Salem, let’s make it a 10-pack to kick things off. Have fun with the picks, and if you’re bold enough, leave yours in the comments section below.

Game of the week
Keith: No. 22 Thomas More at No. 5 Wesley. It’s possible I’m shilling for this game because I’m on the call alongside Sean Greene as a special guest fill-in, but I’d probably pick it anyway. It’s a chance to see one of the nation’s most-decorated offensive players in Saints RB Domonique Hayden (2,234 total yards last season) against one of the most decorated programs … whose quarterback happened to pass for 633 yards in a playoff loss last time we saw him. Wesley’s been known to test itself with a crazy schedule and lose an early season game, even in Dover, so why wouldn’t all eyes be on this one?
Pat: Widener at No. 15 Rowan. I mean, that other game above is really the game of the week but this game is on Friday night so you can see both of them! Once upon a time we would have killed to see these two teams play each other and even though Jim Jones and Michael Coleman are no longer on the Pioneer…. err, Pride’s side, this should still be a great way to help kick off the season.
Ryan: No. 21 Hampden-Sydney at No. 16 Wabash. I can’t do a whole Around the Nation column hyping the uniqueness of this game and the impressiveness of this matchup and not pick it as my game of the week. Check out my inaugural ATN for the many reasons I’m excited about this game.

Surprisingly close game
Keith: Union at No. 23 Ithaca. This was tough for me. I see a lot of matchups that should be not close, and some that will be, but won’t be surprising. I was intrigued by second-year Southwestern (vs. Hardin-Simmons), Buena Vista (hosting No. 8 UW-Platteville) and Millsaps (hosting No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor), but not bold enough to pick them. Twenty-one returning starters emboldened me to take the Dutchmen, who are a 3-7 team going on the road to open up against a second-round playoff participant. Union returns every offensive starter but the tight end, while the Bombers only have three defensive starters back.
Pat: McDaniel at Catholic. It doesn’t read like it should be close on paper, because Catholic won 48-16 at McDaniel last fall, but the Cardinals have been very up and down of late. While that beats the heck out of just being down, Catholic has a lot of holes to fill this season and McDaniel could very well be bouncing back.
Ryan: Washington and Jefferson at Wooster. Their records may not have ended all that far apart in 2013, but the 58-21 pounding W&J handed out last season painted a frightening picture for the Scots. But Wooster has now matured and improved across the board, so don’t expect the Presidents to be rolling into the half up 42-14 again.

Most likely top 25 team to lose
Keith: No. 25 Franklin. Mike Leonard is one of my favorite D-III coaches. His team is going on the road to open up against Illinois Wesleyan, a nine-win program from one of the nation’s best conferences. We ranked the Titans No. 52 in Kickoff, largely because they have only nine starting position players back, but the Grizzlies, who are breaking in new quarterback Grant Welp, only have 11. This is a solid first-week challenge for both teams.
Pat: No. 17 Wartburg. These guys and Augsburg actually have a much bigger rivalry in wrestling, where the two have won like all the national titles in the past 20 years, and Wartburg the past three. But these teams have played some pretty tight games even when the rankings suggest they shouldn’t. Nice to see this game back on the schedule for the first time since 2009 — Augsburg won the Battle of the Burgs in 2008 in a year in which the Auggies went 5-5 and the Warties (yeah, let’s go with that) went to the national quarterfinals.
Ryan: No. 14 Johns Hopkins. I feel like there have been a couple of times in the past three or so years in which Hopkins has lost several starters or maybe a key skill player, and I think this is the season we’ll see the team backslide a bit. Hopkins, in turn, has shown how deep it is each and every time. I admittedly don’t have them in the lofty position of No. 14 on my ballot at this point, not with only three starters back on offense. Randolph-Macon doesn’t have a particularly good track record against Hopkins the past two seasons, but this year is ripe for that to change.

They’ll be on your radar
Keith: George Fox and Pacific. The Bruins, who last played a game in 1968, restart football on Saturday, with a Linfield man (Chris Casey) at the helm. The NWC rival Boxers, meanwhile, were a re-startup in 2010 and enter Year 5 after winning zero, one, three and seven games. Was their Year 4 spike just a group of experienced seniors that had started for several years, or will Pacific be a year-in, year-out threat? I have no idea what to make of either non-D-III team they’re playing, Arizona Christian or College of Idaho, but I’ll have an eye on the D-III squads.
Pat: Stevenson. This is a Year 4 team and it’s time for that breakout that new programs often have in their fourth year. With a struggling program in North Carolina Wesleyan on the schedule to open the season, the first challenge is the length of the trip.
Ryan: Millsaps. I have no expectations that the Majors will actually pull off the upset here, but if you read Kickoff, you might have noticed that I have Millsaps chosen as one of my Pool B predictions. With a solid group of starters back from a team that was one game from likely making the playoffs last year, there’s a lot to look forward to with what this team can accomplish. We’ll see right away how they stack up against one of D-III’s elite.

Who can quiet your doubts with a solid performance Saturday?
Keith: No. 13 Wittenberg. The Tigers won 10 games and had the nation’s fifth-most-prolific offense last season. I didn’t put them in my preseason top 25, largely because only nine starters were back on the offense and defense combined. None of them is star QB Reed Florence. So while you can’t always read much into a D-III playing an FCS team, Wittenberg lost, 49-24, at Butler last year, and didn’t lose again until playing Mount Union in the playoffs. If they look good at home this Saturday, maybe they’ll be fine.
Pat: No. 14 Johns Hopkins. I have some doubts, definitely. Reference Kickoff to find out why. But JHU has handled Randolph-Macon fairly easily the past two years, so if the game is a battle, it could bode well for the rest of the teams in the Centennial Conference. And since I’m the one who wrote that line in Kickoff, it’s not stealing. (credit: Pat Coleman)
Ryan: Huntingdon. With about half of the Hawks’ starting lineup lost to graduation, they were a tough bunch to slot into place during the preseason. Huntingdon isn’t a team that’s been built around one person, so a wide crop of receivers and rushers saw action last year even if they didn’t start. And the team’s two-quarterback system is no more now that one of those guys has graduated. Louisiana College will be a very tough game, but even a close game without a win will help put this Huntingdon team’s abilities in perspective.

Who looks back in November on a loss this Saturday with great regret?
Keith: The Rowan/Widener loser. I love that these two mid-Atlantic powers, each with 17 starters back, and barely separated by more than the Commodore Barry Bridge, open up with each other. But in conferences as competitive and jumbled as the NJAC and MAC, one might find itself wishing it hadn’t, when at-large bids for the 32-team playoff field are distributed.
Pat: St. Scholastica. With a win vs. Ripon on Saturday, just maybe beyond maybes St. Scholastica avoids Whitewater in the first round. But if the Saints manage to go 9-1, winning the UMAC, it’ll be a trip to a top seed. Again.
Ryan: Mount St. Joseph. The Lions have been playing second fiddle to Franklin often in recent years, and the possibility of getting over the hump this season should be cause for celebration. But a loss to Augustana this Saturday would start a likely two-week slide that goes through Millsaps the following weekend. So even if Mount St. Joseph earns an HCAC title, the result will be a team facing a very tough playoff draw.

Which young rivalry game is closer, the Soup Bowl or the Pynchon SAW Game?
Keith: Soup Bowl. Kickoff predicts big things for Guilford, but Greensboro’s got QB Ryan Throndset back for a fourth year starting, and 16 other returners, so we should see a thriller.
Pat: Soup Bowl. When you hold a contest to pick a rivalry name, you get what you get. I have to pick the Soup Bowl just on marketing principle here.
Ryan: Soup Bowl. I’m not sure that the Soup Bowl still counts as a young rivalry, but as it is, I like it as a competitive matchup. Guilford is surely going to be good this season, and while the Quakers are favored to take the win, Greensboro has a dynamic veteran quarterback in Throndset who will help keep the Pride on Guilford’s tail.

Editor’s note: Pynchon SAW is the new name for the Springfield-Western New England game.

Aside from No. 1 UW-Whitewater against Waldorf, which team has the most impressive win?
Keith: No. 10 John Carroll. No. 3 Mount Union has been waiting to bounce back from its Stagg Bowl embarrassment for months, and plays Bethany. But the Blue Streaks, bounced in the first round of last year’s playoffs, have been waiting even longer, and face St. Vincent in new coach Ron Dolciato’s first game. This will be the Bearcats’ 22nd straight loss, and QB Mark Myers and Co. are pretty enough to make it ugly.
Pat: UW-La Crosse. I mean, define impressive. Am I impressed by beating Waldorf 66-3 or Bethany 49-7? Not really. For UW-L, even beating Dubuque at all would be a nice start to the season and we seem to expect the Eagles to be a little higher in the WIAC standings in 2014.
Ryan: No. 15 Rowan. Opponent Widener will finish the season at or near the top of the MAC. “Impressive” isn’t about a thrashing; “impressive” is about standing up to real adversity and walking away with control, confidence and victory. This game will raise the Profs’ profile a notch.

Pick a team ranked 150-244 in Kickoff that wins:
Keith: No. 159 St. Scholastica. Winning is nothing new to the Saints, and this wouldn’t be going very far out on a limb if they weren’t playing No. 99 Ripon. I’ll take the upset — long trip to Duluth, and new coach Kurt Ramler leading what could be a high-powered attack against the Red Hawks’ “slot bone.”
Pat: No. 195 Ferrum. I could have lost a lot of money the last few years picking USA South teams to beat ODAC teams (since it didn’t happen very often). But that would involve betting. Which is wrong. Don’t do it. But even though Ferrum is pretty universally expected to be down this year, I like them at home over the school with first-year head coach and the offseason silliness.
Ryan: No. 203 Misericordia. As I highlighted in Kickoff, I think the Cougars are a team set to ride last year’s season-ending victory into a few more for the win column this fall. Utica is far from a sure thing for Misericordia, but a win also isn’t unattainable in this matchup, especially if the Cougars’ defense can show their worth.

Which manly men win the Stag Bowl and keep alive their Stagg Bowl hopes?
Keith: Hampden-Sydney. Oh Jeez. Who wrote this question? I don’t see what’s so great about going to college without women, but I guess it leaves more time for football practice, which could explain how the Tigers held my beloved Randolph-Macon out of the postseason by a yard last year. Admittedly, Nash Nance’s gang nearly pulled off the surprise of the playoffs out at Linfield and look poised to pick up where they left off. With only one offensive line starter back, Nance may be running for his life on Saturday, but that doesn’t seem to bother him. Pat is picking the Little Giants and Ryan is abstaining, so I’ll hold my nose and select the southern gentlemen. For football reasons, of course.
Pat: Wabash. They’re playing at home. Wish I could be there but the man listed below will already be there so it didn’t make sense for me to try to get there as well. I expect to watch it online and then see my upset pick game Saturday night. I just expect this to be a good game. Keith’s right about Nance being on the run a bit on Saturday. I’m just glad this game is finally here because the fan bravado on the message board is getting to be a bit much.
Ryan: Pass. So often we ask questions on this site with a qualifier that says “alma maters excluded.” As a Wabash grad, I really should follow that rule with the first part of this question, despite the split decision from the two fellows picking before me (I do think I said all I needed to say in ATN this week). But realistically, both of these teams are ranked and have the possibility of conference AQs to look forward to, so a loss for either won’t knock them out of playoff contention. They both will have kept their Stagg Bowl hopes alive going into Week 2.