ATN Podcast: Shaking it up

One of the things for us about traveling a long distance for a game is that it’s like Forrest Gump’s box of chocolates. We get on an airplane for a highly touted matchup and sometimes it becomes a rout pretty early on.

And that’s not just in Alliance, Ohio.

But Keith McMillan’s trip to Boston got him a thriller, and a chance to see the NEFC in action for the first time, as Widener traveled to Curry. The game came down to the final play, and you can hear more about it, plus hear from the winning coach in this week’s podcast.

Pat Coleman’s much shorter trip resulted in a thrilling finish as well, as UW-Eau Claire gave up an intentional touchdown to get the ball back and nearly made St. John’s pay for it before falling 35-27. Hear St. John’s quarterback Joe Boyle’s reaction as he realized the Blugolds were letting his teammate head into the end zone without opposition.

Of course, those weren’t the only games which happened this weekend. Keith and Pat talk about scheduling with some chutzpah, a sleeper team that’s getting its offense together and how all the upsets this week affect Top 25 considerations and beyond.

Click the play button below to listen.

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Tiers of a crown

As Keith McMillan touched on his 2008 season review, I have a theory that tries to make sense of who beats whom during the Division III football season. Instead of thinking about the landscape in terms of regions or conferences, I break it into three tiers.

• Tier I are the elite teams who are likely to finish as national champion. This is a very small group.

• Tier II has great teams who will have great seasons. They will likely win their conference and usually go a couple rounds in the playoffs. But, unless everything breaks for them, they will not win a national championship.

Come playoff time, one or two Tier IIs will be upset by a Tier III. Most Tier IIs will knock each other off in the early playoff rounds or lose to a Tier I, often by 14+ points. If a Tier II team plays a tremendous game and Tier I team plays poorly, an upset is possible.

• Tier III teams are everyone else who makes the playoffs or just misses it. They are good teams and their accomplishments should not be diminished. But, unless they have a very favorable draw, they will be eliminated in the first two weeks of the playoffs. Tier III might beat Tier II if it plays a tremendous game, but the same Tier III is highly unlikely to do that twice in the same postseason. And they definitely don’t beat Tier I.

So why bring this up before teams even break training camp? Why worry think about the playoffs at all when there are hundreds of good stories to follow between now and the Stagg Bowl on December 19? Because the fun of this theory lies in predicting which teams go in which tiers and that changes every year, particularly for Tiers II and III. And that, like the Top 25 Poll released today, is a matter of debate.

Based on my preseason ballot, I’d break them down like this.

• Tier I: Mount Union, UW-Whitewater

Recent seasons make it easy to slot the Purple Raiders and Warhawks here and they stand alone.

• Tier II: Mary Hardin-Baylor, UW-Stevens Point, Hardin-Simmons

These teams could beat a Tier I if they play great and the Tier I stumbles. That’s what separates them from the teams in Tier III who aren’t beating Mount Union or UW-Whitewater. UW-Stevens Point is an easy choice since they return a lot from the team that beat UW-Whitewater last year. Mary Hardin-Baylor hasn’t gotten over the Warhawk hump, but they’ve been competitive. Since the games between teams at this level should be competitive, Hardin-Simmons gets the nod.

A couple more teams will rise to this level, like Wheaton, Wartburg and Willamette did last year. But the first two lose a lot on defense and the third a lot on offense. And if you ask me which teams could upset the two purple powerhouses — and that’s a requirement to be in this tier — right now it’s three’s company.

• Tier III: Everyone else in the Top 25 or receiving votes

This does not mean every other team will have the same level of success. And there will be some wonderful stories at this level that will help define the season ahead. But this is how I see the landscape now.

You know, given all the games that have been played. 🙂

Game day from the madness

I’m in Naperville, Ill.; Keith McMillan is in Westerville, Ohio; John McGraw is in Geneva, N.Y.; and Frank Rossi is in Belton, Texas. And there are photographers elsewhere and of course, your eyes are everywhere.

Twelve weeks into the Division III football season, and while us Triple Takers were fairly unanimous with our first-round predictions, there are still lingering questions.

We all think Wheaton will win, but here’s what Trine has on its side. Trine has a 10-game home winning streak going and hasn’t lost at Shive Field since a 21-7 loss to Hope on Oct. 28, 2006. That’s another era in Trine/Tri-State football, to be sure.

We all picked Hardin-Simmons to lose to Mary Hardin-Baylor. I know I looked at the last meeting and took into account that Mary Hardin-Baylor is really banged up. But we all picked the home team to lose, and that’s a red flag. This game is too close to call, and I think our scores reflected that. That’s also why we sent a broadcast crew, since we think this is going to be a great game.

Plus, there’s the weather. It should hold scores down across the North Central and Mount Union bracket. Is it enough to prompt an upset? There aren’t many games being played on grass today, but the ball will still be affected.

We’ll update. You’ll update. It’ll be a great time. Madness on!