Some of Mount Union’s best players were in diapers last time there was no December football in Alliance. They’re getting pretty used to packin’ the Perk for regional final football in Wisconsin, too, while Saturday’s other hosts, Linfield and Wesley, are no strangers to deep playoff runs either. It’s the four road teams — Albright, Wittenberg, Johns Hopkins and St. Thomas — who are responsible for most the drama of the playoffs to date. Can the not-favored four pull an upset or two on Saturday? Now that we’re down to just four games, Pat, Ryan and I figured we’d tell you not just what we think Saturday’s outcomes will be, but why we think they’ll end up that way. You might find consensus in more than just the projected winners, as we detail how the favorites might well prove worthy of their status.
— Keith McMillan
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 45, Albright 20
It’s hard not to be impressed with how far Albright has come, but without the offensive line playing its best game of the season, the trail will stop here. Mount Union’s defensive ends — James Herbert and Joe Millings — have each been named the OAC’s top linemen the past two seasons, respectively. Lions quarterback Tanner Kelly, even with his shoulder injury, is having the best season of his career, but he’s also leading what could be construed as an offense that’s too one-dimensional. Kelly’s sacks and scrambles aside, the team has fewer than 1,300 yards on the ground, putting a lot of weight on the receivers. But if those same receivers, accounting for 3,519 yards this year, can put together some big plays, the game could remain close.
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Albright 20
The Lions have been one of the surprises of the first two rounds, and Kelly will likely be sharper and more dangerous than the quarterbacks the Purple Raiders have faced the past couple weeks. But while Albright should be able to score some, the big concern if they’ll be able to slow Mount Union down. You’d have to go back to mid-October to find the last time the Purple Raiders scored less than 55. Kurt Rocco’s passes have been on ropes in the playoffs, Cecil Shorts has been wide open and the offensive line moves as one on MUC’s stretch plays. It’s asking a lot of Brett Gaul, Dave Harig and the Lions’ DBs to try to contain Shorts, Vince Petruziello and A.J. Claycomb without some pressure from the defensive line.
Pat’s take: Mount Union 56, Albright 14
Not sure what else can be said here. Kelly can do just enough at quarterback to be a slight bit dangerous, but giving up 21 points per game translates to a bucketful of points against Mount Union. Who steps up to cover Shorts, and how does Albright account for him out of the backfield as well? This reads like a game that’s not much different than last week’s Mount Union game, except with fewer interceptions.
Ryan’s take: Wesley 38, Johns Hopkins 10
Against Division III opponents this season, Wesley has scored 293 points and given up only 83. And this was done with a defense that didn’t return a lot of starters, especially at linebacker. That crew will pose the biggest challenge to Johns Hopkins’ potent running game shouldered by Andrew Kase. But, as with surprise quarterfinalists Albright, JHU will need a big push from its offensive line, a group that has been among the brightest points of this team. Wesley is quick on offense and defense, and JHU will need enough pass completions to keep the Wolverine defense honest.
Keith’s take: Wesley 35, Johns Hopkins 10
The matchup to watch here will be Kase and the Blue Jays’ offensive line against Mike Ward and the Wesley defensive line. If Hopkins can establish the run, a balanced offense will give it a chance. If the Wolverines flex their muscle up front, and get another turnover-free day from quarterback Shane McSweeny, it will be a long day for the Blue Jays.
Pat’s take: Wesley 28, Johns Hopkins 13
There’s a part of me which wants to believe Johns Hopkins can make this a game, keep it close and make it exciting at the end. But I’m having a hard time reconciling that with reality. Wesley presents a balanced offensive attack unlike Hampden-Sydney’s or Thomas More’s and there’s a reason they’re at the top of this bracket. I’m picturing the elements keeping the score down to this level.
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 45, Wittenberg 10
While it’s possible to stay competitive with UW-Whitewater for 10 or 20 minutes, there are few teams that can handle what the Warhawks throw at them for the full four quarters. Whitewater has outscored opponents 151-8 coming out of the break, showing that the team can make adjustments that its opponents simply can’t match. Not to sell Wittenberg short, especially as a team that can clamp down on defense, but it will be tough to put up points against Whitewater. The Tigers will need good field position or a defensive touchdown (or two) to make a dent in the scoreboard.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 28, Wittenberg 7
Given the strength of Wittenberg’s defense, I can see the score remaining unexpectedly close for some time. But there are very few teams in Division III that can withstand the pounding of “Pound the Rock” for a full game. Levell Coppage will find some creases in a stout defense in the second half, while the barely-mentioned Warhawks defense, which allowed just 30 rushing yards to the champions of the powerful CCIW last week, will steal some of the spotlight.
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 34, Wittenberg 10
The Warhawks will be the second team in a row to force Wittenberg to give up a season-high in points. This game won’t seem this close. The quarterback Wittenberg missed when playing Wabash while Matt Hudson was injured would have given the Tigers part of the test they will face in Jeff Donovan. As for facing Levell Coppage, well, there may not be much of a test for that in Division III. And certainly not on Wittenberg’s schedule.
Ryan’s take: Linfield 34, St. Thomas 21
It’s hard to pick against a team that can hand Mary Hardin-Baylor such a definitive loss. It’s no secret that Linfield wins games with its offense, easily topping 400 yards in a typical outing. But what makes this team really dangerous is its season’s plus-25 turnover margin, including forcing seven just last week. On the other hand, St. Thomas hits back against opponents by having two rushers who average more than six yards a carry and combine for 19 touchdowns. That, though, will play into the Wildcats’ defensive strengths.
Keith’s take: Linfield 34, St. Thomas 33
This is the only quarterfinal where the favorite won’t be able to physically overpower the visitor. Since both offenses are able to rack up yards and points, opportunities to alter the game with turnovers — Linfield scored on defense three times last week — and on special teams — The Tommies’ Fritz Waldvogel has six punt and kick return scores this year — must be taken advantage of. If Linfield needs a late drive to pull it out, I could see QB Aaron Boehme (2,727 passing yards, 31 TD in 11 games) doing that in front of the Catdome crowd.
Pat’s take: Linfield 30, St. Thomas 21
Linfield won’t be able to force seven St. Thomas turnovers but they’ll get a couple. If they turn them into points, it will give them the edge they need to make sure this isn’t a one-score game in the end. If Tommies quarterback Greg Morse can again slow down the game like he did against Coe last week, this will be a good game. If he can’t get the job done, and Dakota Tracy can’t either, then it’s going to look like Linfield’s game last week.