Some of Mount Union’s best players were in diapers last time there was no December football in Alliance. They’re getting pretty used to packin’ the Perk for regional final football in Wisconsin, too, while Saturday’s other hosts, Linfield and Wesley, are no strangers to deep playoff runs either. It’s the four road teams — Albright, Wittenberg, Johns Hopkins and St. Thomas — who are responsible for most the drama of the playoffs to date. Can the not-favored four pull an upset or two on Saturday? Now that we’re down to just four games, Pat, Ryan and I figured we’d tell you not just what we think Saturday’s outcomes will be, but why we think they’ll end up that way. You might find consensus in more than just the projected winners, as we detail how the favorites might well prove worthy of their status.
— Keith McMillan
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 45, Albright 20
It’s hard not to be impressed with how far Albright has come, but without the offensive line playing its best game of the season, the trail will stop here. Mount Union’s defensive ends — James Herbert and Joe Millings — have each been named the OAC’s top linemen the past two seasons, respectively. Lions quarterback Tanner Kelly, even with his shoulder injury, is having the best season of his career, but he’s also leading what could be construed as an offense that’s too one-dimensional. Kelly’s sacks and scrambles aside, the team has fewer than 1,300 yards on the ground, putting a lot of weight on the receivers. But if those same receivers, accounting for 3,519 yards this year, can put together some big plays, the game could remain close.
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Albright 20
The Lions have been one of the surprises of the first two rounds, and Kelly will likely be sharper and more dangerous than the quarterbacks the Purple Raiders have faced the past couple weeks. But while Albright should be able to score some, the big concern if they’ll be able to slow Mount Union down. You’d have to go back to mid-October to find the last time the Purple Raiders scored less than 55. Kurt Rocco’s passes have been on ropes in the playoffs, Cecil Shorts has been wide open and the offensive line moves as one on MUC’s stretch plays. It’s asking a lot of Brett Gaul, Dave Harig and the Lions’ DBs to try to contain Shorts, Vince Petruziello and A.J. Claycomb without some pressure from the defensive line.
Pat’s take: Mount Union 56, Albright 14
Not sure what else can be said here. Kelly can do just enough at quarterback to be a slight bit dangerous, but giving up 21 points per game translates to a bucketful of points against Mount Union. Who steps up to cover Shorts, and how does Albright account for him out of the backfield as well? This reads like a game that’s not much different than last week’s Mount Union game, except with fewer interceptions.
Ryan’s take: Wesley 38, Johns Hopkins 10
Against Division III opponents this season, Wesley has scored 293 points and given up only 83. And this was done with a defense that didn’t return a lot of starters, especially at linebacker. That crew will pose the biggest challenge to Johns Hopkins’ potent running game shouldered by Andrew Kase. But, as with surprise quarterfinalists Albright, JHU will need a big push from its offensive line, a group that has been among the brightest points of this team. Wesley is quick on offense and defense, and JHU will need enough pass completions to keep the Wolverine defense honest.
Keith’s take: Wesley 35, Johns Hopkins 10
The matchup to watch here will be Kase and the Blue Jays’ offensive line against Mike Ward and the Wesley defensive line. If Hopkins can establish the run, a balanced offense will give it a chance. If the Wolverines flex their muscle up front, and get another turnover-free day from quarterback Shane McSweeny, it will be a long day for the Blue Jays.
Pat’s take: Wesley 28, Johns Hopkins 13
There’s a part of me which wants to believe Johns Hopkins can make this a game, keep it close and make it exciting at the end. But I’m having a hard time reconciling that with reality. Wesley presents a balanced offensive attack unlike Hampden-Sydney’s or Thomas More’s and there’s a reason they’re at the top of this bracket. I’m picturing the elements keeping the score down to this level.
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 45, Wittenberg 10
While it’s possible to stay competitive with UW-Whitewater for 10 or 20 minutes, there are few teams that can handle what the Warhawks throw at them for the full four quarters. Whitewater has outscored opponents 151-8 coming out of the break, showing that the team can make adjustments that its opponents simply can’t match. Not to sell Wittenberg short, especially as a team that can clamp down on defense, but it will be tough to put up points against Whitewater. The Tigers will need good field position or a defensive touchdown (or two) to make a dent in the scoreboard.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 28, Wittenberg 7
Given the strength of Wittenberg’s defense, I can see the score remaining unexpectedly close for some time. But there are very few teams in Division III that can withstand the pounding of “Pound the Rock” for a full game. Levell Coppage will find some creases in a stout defense in the second half, while the barely-mentioned Warhawks defense, which allowed just 30 rushing yards to the champions of the powerful CCIW last week, will steal some of the spotlight.
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 34, Wittenberg 10
The Warhawks will be the second team in a row to force Wittenberg to give up a season-high in points. This game won’t seem this close. The quarterback Wittenberg missed when playing Wabash while Matt Hudson was injured would have given the Tigers part of the test they will face in Jeff Donovan. As for facing Levell Coppage, well, there may not be much of a test for that in Division III. And certainly not on Wittenberg’s schedule.
Ryan’s take: Linfield 34, St. Thomas 21
It’s hard to pick against a team that can hand Mary Hardin-Baylor such a definitive loss. It’s no secret that Linfield wins games with its offense, easily topping 400 yards in a typical outing. But what makes this team really dangerous is its season’s plus-25 turnover margin, including forcing seven just last week. On the other hand, St. Thomas hits back against opponents by having two rushers who average more than six yards a carry and combine for 19 touchdowns. That, though, will play into the Wildcats’ defensive strengths.
Keith’s take: Linfield 34, St. Thomas 33
This is the only quarterfinal where the favorite won’t be able to physically overpower the visitor. Since both offenses are able to rack up yards and points, opportunities to alter the game with turnovers — Linfield scored on defense three times last week — and on special teams — The Tommies’ Fritz Waldvogel has six punt and kick return scores this year — must be taken advantage of. If Linfield needs a late drive to pull it out, I could see QB Aaron Boehme (2,727 passing yards, 31 TD in 11 games) doing that in front of the Catdome crowd.
Pat’s take: Linfield 30, St. Thomas 21
Linfield won’t be able to force seven St. Thomas turnovers but they’ll get a couple. If they turn them into points, it will give them the edge they need to make sure this isn’t a one-score game in the end. If Tommies quarterback Greg Morse can again slow down the game like he did against Coe last week, this will be a good game. If he can’t get the job done, and Dakota Tracy can’t either, then it’s going to look like Linfield’s game last week.
for me this week:
MUC 52 Allbright 7
UWW 45 Witt 3
Wesley 38 JHU 17
Linfield 42 St Thomas 21
A potential MUC-Wesley semi is intriguing if both hold serve tomorrow (and I think both will). I think both regional games (North and South) will be over by halftime.
I am going down to the Whitewater game tonight and hope they are not overlooking Wittenberg. I have a gut feeling this one may end up being closer than originally thought after reading over Wittenberg’s statistics. Weather could be a wildcard if it is as cold in WI as it is in Saint Paul, MN right now. But a margin of victory by UWW of only 10 points would not surprise me.
I was surprised in the game spread prognostications noted above by the three reviewers. I hope they are right. But this game worries me a little, more so than who UWW would play the following week, Linfield or Saint Thomas.
Wittenberg may be this year’s Willamette – a physically, tough team.
Does anyone out there think that any of the “underdogs” have a shot this weekend? If so, who, and by what score?
MUC 55 Albright 10 (what a great year to build on Albright, but your run here, is done)
Wesley 31 John Hopkins 13 (ditto from above)
UW-Whitewater 41 Wittenberg 10 (Witt just doesn’t play the type of schedule which would get them ready for a Rd#3 game of this caliber)
Linfield 35 St. Thomas 24 (should be the closest game of the day, I think?)
* Good luck to all teams in the semis. You all worked your tails off to get here *
Pat, Ryan & Keith:
Which game or games are you three going to this weekend?
I’m not a big fan of the betting lines so I removed them, just FYI.
I’ll be working the newsdesk this weekend, following all four games from home. Ryan will be at the D-III Senior Classic in Salem and Keith will be at the Wesley-Johns Hopkins game.
I’m a believer that all underdogs always *have a shot* … and you never really know which team is the one until you see them do it. Because teams are not static and predictable necessarily, they are evolving organisms that lose pieces, make changes and do things differently under different circumstances.
Here are my thoughts on how the ‘dogs could win:
Albright — My pick is largely based on watching the two MUC games on DVR; Rocco is throwing strikes to wide-open WRs, and the line is functioning as one. If I believed a team had superior talent on the DL or in the secondary, I’d say this MUC team is beatable. Next week, that might well be the case. Albright might be able to move the ball if it can block the MUC DEs, but I don’t think they’ll be able to stop the MUC offense for four quarters. Getting off to a good start always helps in Alliance, and I think Marzka is playing his cards right on not being intimidated. But saying that and having your team take it to heart once it goes down by a score or two might be two different things.
Anyway, have success early, get pressure on Rocco, double-cover Shorts and make the other guys beat you.
Thanks guys….sorry about the “betting lines” Pat!!
Hopkins — I think, as I said above, this all comes down to whether or not they’re able to run the ball. If they can be themselves, there’s enough belief it sounds like to make the task seem less insurmountable. Wesley has some weaknesses if you can force them into making mistakes, and there’s that same situation where they have a WR so talented you’ve got to devote extra resources to Krout and make someone else do the work.
Hopkins needs to be able to run effectively and get Wesley rattled.
Wittenberg — my guess is that this game will resemble a brewing upset at first. I bet the Tigers will have some success trying to control the ball and getting UW-W off the field some early. But over four quarters, to stop UW-W, it was take a herculean effort, as much by the Witt offense in terms of finding ways to score, than the D. I don’t have as much Xs and Os insight as above, but there are going to be some mismatches in UW-Ws favor that Witt will have to overcome.
St. Thomas — I don’t think anyone would be too stunned to see the Tommies go out to Oregon and win, even if no one picked it. Pat has seen them so I’d leave the Xs and Os insight to him, but I think this game might not really feature the physical mismatches as some of the others. It’ll probably come down to which defense plays better and which team finds a way to change the game with big plays, even if not on offense. Both teams seem proficient there.
Ok….no posting pointspreads, but I will tell you I have made 8 plays and won 8 times. Its like shooting fish in a barrel. I am always happy to see that the three analysts agree with me again this week on the Mt Union and Linfield games again. Gotta go….time to back up the armored truck again.
Thanks for your detailed feedback Keith!!
MUC 35 Albright 7 – could be higher but mount won’t risk injury by playing anyone longer than is necessary
Welsey 28 John Hopkins 20 – playing for the right to lose in alliance is a privilege
UWW 55 Wittenberg 23 – Dub laid 70 a couple weeks ago*, and i can’t help but wonder if it was directly related to MUC putting up 55. LL can see the path to Salem and wants the offense to know they can put up scary numbers
St. Thomas 17 Linfield 13 – doesn’t matter, someone is getting housed by Whitewater.
*Whitewater is good, no doubt. But everyone on their team (5th year seniors included) is fully aware of 1-3 in Salem. Winning by 40 each playoff round should help them forget. Don’t know if this helps though, the Capital game (specifically the 4th quarter comeback) might go down as one of the most defining moments in one of the greatest runs in sports. This Mount team and especially this mount offense knows that they aren’t the ’97 ’02 or ’08 teams, and I don’t think they care.
I like Pats picks the best, but I think UWW will be by more. They are the real deal. Watch out!
Pat your coment “fewer interceptions” is what i’d love to see and with that in mind I feel my picks could fly MCU 31 ALB 20 UWW 38 WITT 28 WES 35 JHU 24 LIN 48 StTh 23 and let the good times roll
RE:comments from Username:
“Welsey 28 John Hopkins 20 – playing for the right to lose in alliance is a privilege”
Mt Union is a great team but Wesley has the talent to beat them. Wesley’s skill players are very good, it will depend on whether the O line and D line can match up. Obviously this all depends on both teams advancing this week(no disrespect to JH and Albright). My comment is based on a hypothetical matchup between Wesley and Mt Union. I don’t think Wesley will be looking at it as a “privilege to lose”. Wesley has to prove it can win a semi final game, they have not faired too well both times they faced UWW. This is the best team Wesley has ever had and they are capable of winning the game. Hoping Wesley makes it past this weekend so we can find out.
I think these matchups this weekend are pretty clear cut except for the Linfield/St. thomas game. St. Thomas is big (O-line averging 300 lbs), tough, and a very poised team due to their coach. They could easily be 12-0 and a possible favorite for this game if not for the St. John’s loss. That game was an OT loss by a field goal, in front of 13000 fans in one of the best rivalry games in D3 football.
Some may disagree, but I feel that St. Thomas is the dark horse of this year’s playoffs and CAN be much much more powerful than people give them credit. They man-handled Monmouth and Coe, and caused both teams to vastly underperform compared with their normal games.
Mount Union 56 Albright 14
Wesley 42 Johns Hopkins 21
UWW 42 Wittenberg 13
St. Thomas 31 Linfield 28
I totally agree with mtown. Mount may be Wesley if the matchup happens but it will not be easy. Wesley is very talented and does have the talent to beat Mount. Watch out for Wesley. I think UWW, Mount, and Wesley are equal in class.
Johns Hopkins 24 Wesley 17
Make fun of me now but the weather will work in the Blue Jays’ favor…trust me.
It didn’t against Ursinus.
‘Cats tomorrow in a close one! Then, on to get ‘housed’ at UWW. LOL, I really hope whoever wins this Linfield game beats UWW only because it’s like it’s a foregone conclusion to the UWW posters that they’ll drop kick either opponent.
Witt 27, UWW 21
Eddie Vallery and the speed of the Tiger blitz might be their ticket to that score (and I have at least one defensive TD in the 27 points). You will know I’m right if the Tigers are up 21-7 at the end of the 1st half… wouldn’t surprise me if UWW almost comes back in the second half.
Mostly I’m picking the Tigers because I’ve watched their defense work like a well oiled machine for most of the past three weeks and think it is just now hitting stride as a unit. To succeed at beating the UWW defense the Witt offense will need a bit of luck while operating with the same level of intensity it did last week. Witt makes its own luck, though, with the same sort of winning confidence MUC and UWW have. If Lakeland can score an early TD on UWW, Witt’s offense can pull down 3 of them and take the lead in the game.
As noted above, the Warhawks are used to wearing a team down and overcoming the defense by being stronger and having more endurance, then going on a scoring spree. Witt’s is generally faster, has comparable (if somewhat lesser) strength, and will endure in the face of the UWW onslaught. The Warhawks won’t get the usual string of easy TD’s. But that won’t be the key reason why the Warhawk’s season ends here.
In its loses to Mt Union over the past few years I think UWW has exposed a coaching weakness that may show up early this season, in this game. They expect to win, they keep at it even in the face of solid opposition, they make great adjustments at halftime, but they lack imagination when they’ve been stifled at everything in their well prepared playbook. I think the Tiger D is now adjusting so quickly and confidently in real time on the field that the UWW coaches will have to be creative in real time to beat them… and I don’t think they can manage it. Mt Union’s staff thinks much faster on its feet, and that is a key advantage. The Tiger D field captains can do it too.
Lukesfan, i wanted to mention something to you. Against IWU the refs allowed UWW to do the following to their defensive line all game long. Grab the facemasks and pull down on them as they begain their rush. Hold on every single play and not get any penalties called, and when IWU’s coach complained, it got worse. IWU’s defensive line is extremely fast and UWW was allowed to use every trick in the book. I hope you have better luck than we did and i also hope the refs allow you to play your game. When it appeared that IWU could play with them, the refs started making calls against IWU that were rediculous. UWW has been anointed to go to the championship, and if you are in the way, the refs are going to remove you. Wittenberg can play and beat this team if the refs don’t get involved. I will be very interested to hear from you after the game to see if UWW was allowed to do the things mentioned above.
Mtown – my comment about the right to lose in alliance was to qualify why I had Welsey only winning by a touchdown (+2 point convo). My point was to imply John Hopkins giving them more of a game. Obviously they don’t look at it as the right to go lose in alliance and should they advance they will be to doing every thing they can to be playing in salem in 2 weeks. I wouldn’t go so far as to say they are in the same class at MUC and UWW, rings set teams apart. To that point, and I know I’ll get hounded for this, is UWW really in the same class? The Buffalo Bills were really good at losing super bowls, does that mean they are regarded on the same level as the early 90’s cowboys? A Stagg victory this year changes that, but until let the homers rip apart my comment (should they so choose)
you’re right though, a lot still to happen until that discussion is no longer hypothetical. And in any event there is no chance for 3-4 undefeated teams at the end of the year.
I signed up to watch WITT & UWW now I have onother reason to watch I picked UWW but it would be fine if I was wrong
wackyjade, come on with the conspiracy theory. The main trick UWW used was skill and strength-that is why they completed dominated IWU in the second half.
Defending UWW fans, I don’t see them posting arrogant messages. In reading this message board, some of the posters seem to be trying really hard to “create” a story that’s not there.
I think UWW will be challenged today very possibly by the size of Witt’s receivers. The 2 corners for UWW are very short. Although Troney (#7) is a great tackler and tough kid, he may have a hard time against a 6-2 and 6-4 receiver. I hope this game comes down to the trenches, which would play to UWW’s strength.
Wouldn’t it be! I cringe at another UWW vs. MUC. Let’s hope for the underdogs! Also, lets hope no one gets hurt. To the teams remaining, you can beat anyone on any given saturday! Today is that day.
St. Thomas should feel right at home today. Forecast is for 39 degrees at kickoff, sunny, little or no wind. Actually, this might be more like a trip to the beach for them. Nice weather to air it out, which plays to Linfield’s strength.
wackyjade,
A certain amount of holding has been part of the game at least since the 70’s, when I played o-line and tried to get away with it. Its a judgment call, and some refs set a higher bar. I hope it isn’t the difference in the game, but referee judgment is part of the game in reality.
I would have to agree with D3Football, the UWW posters don’t seem arrogant (post on a few Oregon football boards if you want to see arrogance…). UWW has a great program, and a certain pride in it is understandable.
Its Witt’s day to show their better than most realize, though. Kickoff is coming up. Go Tigers!
Witt fails to score on a good first drive, as does UWW. Not good news for the Tigers. 0-0 end of first quarter.
I would love to see an All-Ohio Final….alas, I don’t think the Tigers will be up to it…..But I can hope can’t i?
As someone said, height does matter. Wittenberg’s second touchdown was essentially a reach contest and the Tiger soared higher than the ‘Hawk.
The UWW offense has had a couple big plays, which is keeping the Tiger’s winning script from playing out. A couple beautiful sacks showed what Witt can do on defense, but they haven’t managed to be consistent about it yet.
At 14-13 UWW over Wittenberg, the game is far from over. But obviously the Tigers don’t have the cushion they need at the half, so they will have to make better adjustments in the locker room than the Warhawks… which isn’t a sure thing.
And Hoffman’s possible concussion doesn’t bode well for the 2nd either.
The Warhawks made the defensive touchdown (practically) that I expected the Tigers to make, and the Tigers only made two on offense instead of the three they needed to. 31-13, final score.
Got to hand it to the UWW team, O & D. They didn’t need to get beyond their playbook, and made the big plays on both sides of the ball when they had to.
Tigers might have won. It was closer than predicted, but… good game.
Next up, Linfield from the home state. Go Wildcats!
This Linfield announcer, the one not named Dave, is very annoying. Sounds a lot like a 2nd rate high school commentator. Would he please stop finishing Dave’s every sentence? And please focus on the game, instead of sounding so depressed every time UST does something good? ha
LOL “Dave” is Dave Hansen. He’s been the play-by-play man for the ‘Kitties at least since I started there, which was – good grief – 26 years ago. The color guy is Tyler Matthews. He was the starter the two years before Brett Elliott. His teams lost to St. John’s both years, and both times in the regional finals, if I recall correctly. He seems to have a bit of an axe to grind in re: the MIAC. He was a little more even-handed last week.
One of the reasons Matthews tends to finish Dave’s sentences is that Dave struggles with getting the correct yard line spots, and I think Tyler gets a little impatient. 🙂 Tyler – cut the old guy some slack!
FYI – Tyler Matthews WAS NOT the color guy during Linfields game today. It was a guy named Patterson.
The problem in beating Whitewater is not staying close in the 1st half. Several teams have done that over the past few years. The problem is winning the second half when they have a cadre of fresh players and your defense is wearing out. All the weapons they have on the ground almost make you forget about Justin Beaver from a few years ago.
Yeah, Ty Matthews had a work committment that he couldn’t get out of and wasn’t available to do color.
My bad folks. Didn’t hear the start of the broadcast, and it sounded like Matthews on my cruddy laptop speaker. Other than that, I stand by almost everything else I said.