For the past four years, there have been at least two dominant teams — and often a third championship contender — playing this far into December. But you’d have to go back to 1998, when there were 16 teams in the playoffs and no D3football.com, to find the last season where both semifinals were close games. In each season since, at least one, and sometimes both, have been decided by 21 points or more.

It is in that vein, then, that seeing the teams ranked Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 5 in our pre-playoff poll meet, without a loss between them, excites us. Are we in line for the best Round 4 of the D3football.com era? Or just another coronation of the Purple Powers we’ve seen in Stagg Bowls 33, 34, 35 and 36? Wesley and Linfield hit the road to help decide, and to help you understand how we’ve decided on our picks, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman and I added something to our score projections and explanations this week: An estimate of how likely our pick is to pan out. It was thought that maybe with the home teams being traditional favorites, we’d at least pay the Wolverines and Wildcats some respect by acknowledging their chances to win, but turns out we were more than willing to stick our necks out.

— Keith McMillan

No. 3 WESLEY (13-0) at No. 1 Mount Union (13-0), Noon EST

Ryan: Wesley 31, Mount Union 30
Percentage chance Wesley will win: 35%
I’ve rewritten this blurb four times already, stopping each time I get to the point where I try to factor coaching into the equation. Hands down, Mount Union wins that aspect of the game. Then I circle back to last week, 13 games into the season, and wonder about a Mount team that certainly wasn’t playing poorly, but then again, also wasn’t playing quite as well as they had at this point the past five years. There, a window opens for Wesley. It’s not a wide window, mind you, but Wesley is a team of versatility and playmakers — all of which can surprise defenses that give them any slack. Best of all, under center is a quarterback who is both mobile and quick to get rid of the ball, key ingredients as the Mount defenders pound the Wolverines line. It’s a long shot, this game, but if any pre-Stagg Bowl team will have had a shot, it’s Wesley. Problems, though, will come if the defensive backs fail to be physical enough to stall Cecil Shorts and the other MUC wideouts or if the defensive line fails to clamp down.

 

Keith: Wesley 31, Mount Union 28
Percentage chance Wesley will win: 45%
I’ve been going over this pick in my head since the Saturday before last, and I’m no closer to sold. I can see either team winning, but time’s up, and my pick is in. The rationale is all over the board, since I’ve seen Wesley live three times and Mount Union on DVR three times. Simplified, something about this Mount Union team strikes me as beatable. Maybe it was the five turnovers against Albright. Maybe it’s the natural order of things, that the Purple Raiders seem to dominate in cycles, and just when we start to believe they’re unbeatable, someone unexpectedly takes them out. Maybe it’s that are fewer really special playmakers on the Purple Raiders than on the Wolverines. But the last two rounds of the Division III playoffs are always about how a team performs up front, and Mount Union is solid on both lines. Wesley’s defensive line looks special enough to cause problems the Purple Raiders’ linemen aren’t used to dealing with, and if that happens, we’ve got an interesting game. MUC QB Kurt Rocco is not immobile necessarily, but he hasn’t had to deal with relentless pressure very often. Wesley’s secondary can probably match up with Mount Union’s receivers better than most, but expect WRs Cecil Shorts and Vince Petruziello to have some success. Wesley’s offensive line will have problems with Joe Millings and the Mount Union pass rush, but that almost plays right into the hands of QB Shane McSweeny, who loves to run and craves contact, and offensive coordinator Chip Knapp, who is clever enough to use the Purple Raiders’ speed against them. I don’t really know how Wesley scores 31 on Mount Union’s defense, but something about 2009 has been so standard that a stunner is due. The Wolverines are confident enough, that if they keep their cool and limit turnovers and penalties, they can restore the belief that a South Region or East Coast team can go through Alliance on the way to Salem.

Pat: Mount Union 27, Wesley 20
Percentage chance Mount Union will win: 57%
First of all, 57% is about 38% less than any other week of the playoffs so far. When people talk about the formula for beating Mount Union, it usually involves getting pressure on the Purple Raider quarterback solely with the front four, and the Wolverines have 46 sacks and 125 tackles for loss. The other key is, like many games, taking care of the ball. Wesley has turned the ball over 27 times in 13 games so far, nine of them in three playoff games, which is not overwhelming. A … well, potentially wise Mount Union fan told me earlier this year that Larry Kehres basically has 12 games every year to figure things out, thinking that even without the offense or defense fully clicking the Purple Raiders can get through two playoff games. In this case, I suspect the five turnovers last week might give people reason to consider they are not clicking 100 percent. I can believe Wesley has the talent to compete in this game, perhaps win it. Where I struggle is believing Wesley won’t be at least a little intimidated and outcoached. Mount Union doesn’t get outcoached often. I don’t see it happening Saturday. If the coaching is even and the Wolverines don’t get intimidated, Wesley wins. And that’s where my 43% is coming from.

No. 5 LINFIELD (12-0) at No. 2 UW-Whitewater (13-0), 1 p.m. EST

Ryan: UW-Whitewater 38, Linfield 17
Percentage chance Whitewater will win: 80%
Does Whitewater have any real weaknesses? The team is exactly where it should be, playing toward the game that it deserves to be in. Few teams boast as balanced of an offense as the Warhawks — and I don’t just mean on the basic passing vs. rushing level. It’s even balanced within the components. The ground game has two very capable backs, and quarterback Jeff Donovan has three potent receivers to keep the field spread out and the defense guessing. To its credit, Linfield is no slouch on either side of the ball either. The Wildcats’ turnover margin is well documented, and 436 yards of offense per game doesn’t just happen by magic. Linfield has momentum on its side, winning big game after big game. But UW-W is possibly the best of the best, and that will count come time to take the field.

Keith: UW-Whitewater 35, Linfield 21
Percentage chance Whitewater will win: 75%
As I mentioned in this week’s podcast, I think Linfield shows up at The Perk feeling like they’re in the same class as UW-Whitewater, that if they play their best game, they can win. And they’ll probably follow the Illinois Wesleyan and Wittenberg formula of going toe-to-toe with the Warhawks for a while. But of the two offensive styles, Linfield’s is the one that seems more susceptible to being disrupted by a good defense or having things spiral out of control on a bad day. Whitewater, with just 12 turnovers in 13 games, and having given up just six sacks, plays a mistake-free, powerful style that wears a team down in the second half. While the Warhawks give up just 2.4 yards per carry and have allowed four rushing TDs all season, even a one-dimensional Linfield is a bet to score some; The Wildcats start eight seniors on offense. On D, where they start three, is the bigger concern. They’ve only held three of 12 opponents below 20 points, while Whitewater’s only given up that many points once, in a game they led 51-7. The Wildcats and Warhawks might play an epic half to match their ’05 clash, but it would take a monumental Linfield effort, especially on defense, to outplay UW-Whitewater over the course of a full game.

Pat: UW-Whitewater 30, Linfield 23
Percentage chance Whitewater will win: 52%
I think Whitewater has better talent, is better coached (though not significantly) and has the home-field advantage and experience this deep in the playoffs. If Whitewater has a weakness, it’s that they haven’t been tested much this season and the Warhawks may not be able to react if challenged late in the game. Yes, last week Wittenberg took Whitewater pretty late in the game, but the Tigers weren’t much of an offensive threat after halftime without their starting quarterback. Assuming Aaron Boehme is playing in the fourth quarter, that won’t be the same. Linfield has made a living in the playoffs taking advantage of opponents’ turnovers, but Whitewater takes care of the ball, with just six interceptions and six lost fumbles all season. Even if they double that average, I’m not sure two turnovers gets the job done.