For the past four years, there have been at least two dominant teams — and often a third championship contender — playing this far into December. But you’d have to go back to 1998, when there were 16 teams in the playoffs and no D3football.com, to find the last season where both semifinals were close games. In each season since, at least one, and sometimes both, have been decided by 21 points or more.
It is in that vein, then, that seeing the teams ranked Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 5 in our pre-playoff poll meet, without a loss between them, excites us. Are we in line for the best Round 4 of the D3football.com era? Or just another coronation of the Purple Powers we’ve seen in Stagg Bowls 33, 34, 35 and 36? Wesley and Linfield hit the road to help decide, and to help you understand how we’ve decided on our picks, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman and I added something to our score projections and explanations this week: An estimate of how likely our pick is to pan out. It was thought that maybe with the home teams being traditional favorites, we’d at least pay the Wolverines and Wildcats some respect by acknowledging their chances to win, but turns out we were more than willing to stick our necks out.
— Keith McMillan
No. 3 WESLEY (13-0) at No. 1 Mount Union (13-0), Noon EST
Ryan: Wesley 31, Mount Union 30
Percentage chance Wesley will win: 35%
I’ve rewritten this blurb four times already, stopping each time I get to the point where I try to factor coaching into the equation. Hands down, Mount Union wins that aspect of the game. Then I circle back to last week, 13 games into the season, and wonder about a Mount team that certainly wasn’t playing poorly, but then again, also wasn’t playing quite as well as they had at this point the past five years. There, a window opens for Wesley. It’s not a wide window, mind you, but Wesley is a team of versatility and playmakers — all of which can surprise defenses that give them any slack. Best of all, under center is a quarterback who is both mobile and quick to get rid of the ball, key ingredients as the Mount defenders pound the Wolverines line. It’s a long shot, this game, but if any pre-Stagg Bowl team will have had a shot, it’s Wesley. Problems, though, will come if the defensive backs fail to be physical enough to stall Cecil Shorts and the other MUC wideouts or if the defensive line fails to clamp down.
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Keith: Wesley 31, Mount Union 28
Percentage chance Wesley will win: 45%
I’ve been going over this pick in my head since the Saturday before last, and I’m no closer to sold. I can see either team winning, but time’s up, and my pick is in. The rationale is all over the board, since I’ve seen Wesley live three times and Mount Union on DVR three times. Simplified, something about this Mount Union team strikes me as beatable. Maybe it was the five turnovers against Albright. Maybe it’s the natural order of things, that the Purple Raiders seem to dominate in cycles, and just when we start to believe they’re unbeatable, someone unexpectedly takes them out. Maybe it’s that are fewer really special playmakers on the Purple Raiders than on the Wolverines. But the last two rounds of the Division III playoffs are always about how a team performs up front, and Mount Union is solid on both lines. Wesley’s defensive line looks special enough to cause problems the Purple Raiders’ linemen aren’t used to dealing with, and if that happens, we’ve got an interesting game. MUC QB Kurt Rocco is not immobile necessarily, but he hasn’t had to deal with relentless pressure very often. Wesley’s secondary can probably match up with Mount Union’s receivers better than most, but expect WRs Cecil Shorts and Vince Petruziello to have some success. Wesley’s offensive line will have problems with Joe Millings and the Mount Union pass rush, but that almost plays right into the hands of QB Shane McSweeny, who loves to run and craves contact, and offensive coordinator Chip Knapp, who is clever enough to use the Purple Raiders’ speed against them. I don’t really know how Wesley scores 31 on Mount Union’s defense, but something about 2009 has been so standard that a stunner is due. The Wolverines are confident enough, that if they keep their cool and limit turnovers and penalties, they can restore the belief that a South Region or East Coast team can go through Alliance on the way to Salem.
Pat: Mount Union 27, Wesley 20
Percentage chance Mount Union will win: 57%
First of all, 57% is about 38% less than any other week of the playoffs so far. When people talk about the formula for beating Mount Union, it usually involves getting pressure on the Purple Raider quarterback solely with the front four, and the Wolverines have 46 sacks and 125 tackles for loss. The other key is, like many games, taking care of the ball. Wesley has turned the ball over 27 times in 13 games so far, nine of them in three playoff games, which is not overwhelming. A … well, potentially wise Mount Union fan told me earlier this year that Larry Kehres basically has 12 games every year to figure things out, thinking that even without the offense or defense fully clicking the Purple Raiders can get through two playoff games. In this case, I suspect the five turnovers last week might give people reason to consider they are not clicking 100 percent. I can believe Wesley has the talent to compete in this game, perhaps win it. Where I struggle is believing Wesley won’t be at least a little intimidated and outcoached. Mount Union doesn’t get outcoached often. I don’t see it happening Saturday. If the coaching is even and the Wolverines don’t get intimidated, Wesley wins. And that’s where my 43% is coming from.
No. 5 LINFIELD (12-0) at No. 2 UW-Whitewater (13-0), 1 p.m. EST
Ryan: UW-Whitewater 38, Linfield 17
Percentage chance Whitewater will win: 80%
Does Whitewater have any real weaknesses? The team is exactly where it should be, playing toward the game that it deserves to be in. Few teams boast as balanced of an offense as the Warhawks — and I don’t just mean on the basic passing vs. rushing level. It’s even balanced within the components. The ground game has two very capable backs, and quarterback Jeff Donovan has three potent receivers to keep the field spread out and the defense guessing. To its credit, Linfield is no slouch on either side of the ball either. The Wildcats’ turnover margin is well documented, and 436 yards of offense per game doesn’t just happen by magic. Linfield has momentum on its side, winning big game after big game. But UW-W is possibly the best of the best, and that will count come time to take the field.
Keith: UW-Whitewater 35, Linfield 21
Percentage chance Whitewater will win: 75%
As I mentioned in this week’s podcast, I think Linfield shows up at The Perk feeling like they’re in the same class as UW-Whitewater, that if they play their best game, they can win. And they’ll probably follow the Illinois Wesleyan and Wittenberg formula of going toe-to-toe with the Warhawks for a while. But of the two offensive styles, Linfield’s is the one that seems more susceptible to being disrupted by a good defense or having things spiral out of control on a bad day. Whitewater, with just 12 turnovers in 13 games, and having given up just six sacks, plays a mistake-free, powerful style that wears a team down in the second half. While the Warhawks give up just 2.4 yards per carry and have allowed four rushing TDs all season, even a one-dimensional Linfield is a bet to score some; The Wildcats start eight seniors on offense. On D, where they start three, is the bigger concern. They’ve only held three of 12 opponents below 20 points, while Whitewater’s only given up that many points once, in a game they led 51-7. The Wildcats and Warhawks might play an epic half to match their ’05 clash, but it would take a monumental Linfield effort, especially on defense, to outplay UW-Whitewater over the course of a full game.
Pat: UW-Whitewater 30, Linfield 23
Percentage chance Whitewater will win: 52%
I think Whitewater has better talent, is better coached (though not significantly) and has the home-field advantage and experience this deep in the playoffs. If Whitewater has a weakness, it’s that they haven’t been tested much this season and the Warhawks may not be able to react if challenged late in the game. Yes, last week Wittenberg took Whitewater pretty late in the game, but the Tigers weren’t much of an offensive threat after halftime without their starting quarterback. Assuming Aaron Boehme is playing in the fourth quarter, that won’t be the same. Linfield has made a living in the playoffs taking advantage of opponents’ turnovers, but Whitewater takes care of the ball, with just six interceptions and six lost fumbles all season. Even if they double that average, I’m not sure two turnovers gets the job done.
Interesting analysis guys – UW-Whitewater vs Wesley in the Stagg Bowl – I wish it were saturday already!! I still think it’ll be Warhawks and Raiders when it’s all said and done.
I had a feeling I might be the only one picking Mount Union. Guess I’m the one bowing at the altar.
This means, of course, that we are likely to have Linfield-Mount Union, the matchup nobody picked. 🙂
Brett Elliott mentions in our latest story that Linfield always wanted that showdown with Mount Union. And I, too, have long been wanting to see a juggernaut Northwest Conference team, whether it’s Linfield or Pacific Lutheran before it, take on the Purple Raiders. I’ll enjoy whichever matchup we get but that particular one would certainly be interesting.
http://www.d3football.com/notables/2009/12/11/1800/first-meeting-was-a-classic.html
I like your analysis guys. It’s interesting that all three of you focused on the turnovers Mount had last game as support for them being beatable. In no small way, I believe that influenced your pick for this week. I too am concerend about protecting the football (as would anyone, especially this time of year).
Ultimately though, I am a bit puzzled by Ryan and Keith’s pick of Wesley to win. I realize the choice is listed but your percentages are less than 50%. Was there a breakeven percentage that you determined as being suitable (like 25 – 30%)?
At this point in the season, I think two evenly matched teams are separated by the biggest intangible there is – confidence. Two recent lopsided losses by Wesley at he hands of UWW could be a motivator or it could put doubt in the minds of the players that they are a national semi final team and not a Stagg Bowl team.
Mount Union, on the other hand, has been a Stagg Bowl team (and champion) multiple times so their confidence in knowing they can succeed is a stronger motivator. Plus, playing at home is a lift as well.
I predict a Mount victory but it will be a close game if Mount is not able to get off to their traditional fast start. If they do, Wesley’s confidence will be broken but, if it is close at the end of the first half, it will be a dog fight.
Mount Union – 34 (always seem to miss an extra point), Wesley – 21
On the Linfield/UWW game, a similar case could be made on the cofidence level except that Linfield won the whole enchillada in 2004. Even though the current players didn’t win it, the program did and that, in and of itself, is a big confidence boost.
No question that UWW has more press and attention due to their recent run but Linfield didn’t get to this game by direct invitation. They worked their way through what many believe was the toughest bracket this year. For that alone, I give them a fighting chance to turn some heads and pull off the victory.
Linfield – 28; UWW – 20
I can say this with 100% certainty. Purple will again be displayed in the Stagg Bowl!
Good luck to all four teams.
MUC 28 WES 20
UWW 27 Linfield 21
Good analysis, but I don’t think that Mount Union’s defense will give up 31 points. I think the Wesley QB can be effective with his mobility, but I think Mount can keep them out of the end zone and force them to fg’s.
I think some keys to the game will be Wesley’s defensive front against Mount’s O-line. If Wesley can bring pressure, it will be interesting to see how Rocco handles it, especially if they get to him consisntently.
Turnovers can always change a game, and I bet Kehres stressed that all week after turning it over 5 times last week. Mount Unions defense has been very aggressive forcing turnovers and getting int’s. I think they will be able to get pressure on McSweeney and force some bad throws.
Mount has been out to very fast starts in the playoffs and I think it is crucial for Wesley to come out with a strong first half. I excpect that they will and I expect it to be a competitive game. I think the experienced O-line and other Mount seniors along with the coaching of Mount will help them, plus they are at home.
MUC 31
WES 16
All these games are tough and while I suspect Whitewater and Mount Union will repeat, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an upset in either or both games.
One factor that no one has discussed is the weather in Wisconsin. Its supposed to be in the low 20s which could slow down the passing attacks. Here Whitewater has the advantage because of their nasty rushing defense and lets face it, no one has been able to slow down either Coppage or Anderson all season.
UWW 31
Linfield 21
These are interesting picks. Mount Union and UWW have dominated D3Football for the past 4-5 years. I have not seen Mount or Wesley play this year, but from reading the scores and looking at the stats of each game, I would have to pick Mount Union. Wesley had a nice story about their D-Line and how big they will have to play on Sat. for them to have a winning chance.
I watched the Linfield UST game by videocast and the camera man would not zoom off either of the teams offensive lines so it was hard to tell how quick Linfield’s d-Line was getting off the ball along will how fast their backers were getting to the football. From want it looked like. Linfield was able at times to beat UST’s offensive line to the ball, and their backers were at times in the backfield.
I think
First time Blogger Sorry Guys.
I’ll finish.
These are interesting picks. Mount Union and UWW have dominated D3Football for the past 4-5 years. I have not seen Mount or Wesley play this year, but from reading the scores and looking at the stats of each game, I would have to pick Mount Union. Wesley had a nice story about their D-Line and how big they will have to play on Sat. for them to have a winning chance.
I watched the Linfield UST game by videocast and the camera man would not zoom off either of the teams offensive lines so it was hard to tell how quick Linfield’s d-Line was getting off the ball along will how fast their backers were getting to the football. From want it looked like though,… Linfield was able at times to beat UST’s offensive line to the ball, and their backers were at times in the backfield.
I think Linfield played a great game and I give them credit, they had some success. Good luck tomorrow.
Call me a homer, but being a proud UST football alum, I honestly believe UST’s rushing offense is second to none in the nation.
I would like to shout out to UST football and congratulate them on a wonderful year and thanks to their new head fball coach Caruso his staff and the players for restoring excitment to the UST program, and giving us three more games this year to cheer you on.
Picks
Linfield 28 UWW 24
Mount Union 34 Wesley 21
All four teams are more than deserving of a semifinal spot. I don’t think it is accurate to label any of the four remaining teams a “semi-final only team”.
With that being said, as a person who belonged to the 2005-2009 UWW teams , I don’t see a much different turnout than the one that has become standard for the past four years.
Wesley is a talented squad annually, but are normally absent of a few key cogs that make a team a level above others. Fumbles, intercepted screen passes for touchdowns; all things that I’ve witnessed Wolverine playoof squads. I don’t know if the weather affected their performance at Perkins stadium in 05 and 06, but both years were examples of less than average preparation. Weatherchannel.com predicts 36 and sunny, this could be a break for Wesley seeing as their performances in frigid temperatures in recent history are aweful. Looking at box scores and being on the field is different, no offense Pat and Keith– Wesley is good, MUC is better. As a former Warhawk, I’ll never sleep on Da Raidas. MUC 31-Wesley 24.
While many may disagree, I do try to sit back and look at UWW games objectively…or mostly objectively for that matter. I can say this about the 2009 Warhawks: their 52 man playoff roster may be the most talented to ever play at The Perk. Offensively, three discriptives ring a bell: systematic, physically exhausting, balanced. Defensively, as long as an experienced back 4 comes prepared to make plays, Linnfield could struggle. Regardless, the Wildcats are talented as well, and bring a mostly high scoring attack to America’s Dairy Land. As I alluded to above, I hate looking at box scores– but if Puget Sound puts up 37 against Linn, I have to believe Whitewater can top that. I’ll sleep on the Wildcats…but with one eye open. UWW 41-Linnfield 21.
Apologies for the mispellings, messages sent from blackberrys in lectures tend to be less gramatically correct.
If Q B,s are the true brains of a team….and they are mostly..then I have to look at the brawn
Lin..Aaron 6’5″ 205 lbs
WW..Jeff 6’5″ 187
MU..Kurt 6’6″ 220
WES..Shane 6’2 210
I’m going with the heavy every time
I’ve never done picke before so here goes:
I think the easy game
UWW 38 Linfield 21
The next game should be all about defense
MUC 21 Wesley 17
Good luck to all teams!
neil
McSweeney runs like a 240 lb fullback.
as much as people love to throw around predictions and what will and will not happen I do know one thing…MU and WW have been here before (quite often recently) and their coaches and players know how to mentally prepare for a game of this magnitude…I’m not saying Linfield or Wesley don’t as both teams have been here in the past 5 years but I think WW and MU’s coaches will have them mentally prepared for these games…plus both are at home…my true feelings on this game I’ve been reluctant to post as people make too big of a deal about predictions but I seriously think WW win’s this game going away…I think the cold weather will force them to be a running team and that is not their strength…WW’s run defense is their strength on D but have a tendency to give up the deep pass…in cold weather (game time temp is predicted at 22 with 10-15 MPH winds) the running games have to be the strength…I feel WW is just to well rounded of a team to not win this game at home…basically if WW doesn’t turnover the ball they should be fine in this game…I like the UST fans faith in their runnin game as the tops in the nation…I think if the WW game turns into a running game you will see just how great WW’s rushin attack really is…I truthfully believe that if Antwan Anderson played for any other team he would be one of the top backs in D3 and he’s a back up at WW…that says a lot in itself…if WW loses I know I’ll eat crow for this but I think WW win’s this game 42 – 14…IMO this is WW’s best team in the 5 years they have been considered one of the top 2 teams in D3…so best of luck to WW and Linfield…if Linfield does win this game they will be my favorite to win it all…
I really just think MUC is on a mission right now. 172-17 in 3 playoff games. That’s ridiculous.
MUC 42 Wesley 20 (Although I’m having a difficult time coming to terms with Wesley scoring more points than the last 3 MUC opponents have in a combined 180 minutes of football).
UWW will take care of the football and will use their punishing running game to return to the Stagg. Linfield will stay in it for awhile though.
UWW 38 Linfield 24
Good analysis all around. I particularly enjoyed RaiderDude and Raidernation.
To answer somebody’s questions, the percentages were a way of differentiating between our “favorites” and our “picks.” If Ryan and I turn out to be right, it will still be an upset. Mount Union is almost always favored, and especially on their home turf.
I could very well see them winning close or big; A pick is just that. There are a lot of ways a game can go … nobody knows which way it will. But frankly I like a bit of intrigue. It’s no fun when we all know hands down who is winning.
Child, please. First off, I played. I understand exactly what I’m looking at. Second, Pat and I saw all those teams in person, usually more than once. We might not be right all the time, but we’re certainly doing more than looking at box scores.
You might not have meant to offend, but I know I take my role here very seriously, and I don’t appreciate anybody questioning my credibility. You want to take issue with specific points, that’s fine.
All I’m saying above is if Pat and I are wrong, it’s not because we haven’t put the work in.
I don’t necessarily agree that you have to have played to know what you’re talking about, though it certainly helps if you have. There are things I can relate to having been part of a team, having gone through ups and downs over the course of a practice/game/season, etc., that I pull out all the time that a non-player can’t. But nobody works harder at this than Pat, and even though he might not fancy himself a football genius, he knows D3. I’m sure that was just a harmless throwaway comment to you — maybe you meant specifically in those UWW games — but since you’re questioning people’s credibility in a public forum, whether you meant to or not, I thought I’d let anyone reading know where I stand on that.
Moving on:
Sure. But Wesley isn’t Washington & Jefferson, Montclair State or Albright. I’ve seen all these teams, and I’ll lay my hat on that. Mount Union has roared into the semis or Salem before and been beaten. It might not happen, but it certainly could.
Hey, I’ve also thought Wesley has been a match for UW-Whitewater before; I just went back and looked, I picked UW-W in both semis, but by 31-28 and 28-21. And this is before UW-W was automatic as they are now.
I look back at my miscalculations from those years and figure that UWW’s line play was at another level from Wesley. And it might be again this year, but I’ve seen enough of Mount Union to feel confident they can cause problems, even if the Wolverines don’t ultimately win.
BL is this. If you lined up Wesley and Mount Union’s players and picked teams, you’d take more Wesley players earlier. Mount Union has beaten teams on raw talent before, but if they win tomorrow, it’ll be because they took better care of the ball, picked up coaches’ schemes better and played better as a TEAM.
I’m gonna use this on the air tomorrow, but I’ll preview it here for the diehards. You know how normally you watch a game by following where the ball is snapped, then run or thrown?
Watch tomorrow’s game by looking at the O- and D-lines, and let them guide you to the play. I sometimes forget/struggle to do that, but it’s so helpful when you have a game like tomorrow’s that’ll be decided by line play.
All I’m saying above is if Pat and I are wrong, it’s not because we haven’t put the work in.
I don’t necessarily agree that you have to have played to know what you’re talking about, though it certainly helps if you have. There are things I can relate to having been part of a team, having gone through ups and downs over the course of a practice/game/season, etc., that I pull out all the time that a non-player can’t. But nobody works harder at this than Pat, and even though he might not fancy himself a football genius, he knows D3. I’m sure that was just a harmless throwaway comment to you — maybe you meant specifically in those UWW games — but since you’re questioning people’s credibility in a public forum, whether you meant to or not, I thought I’d let anyone reading know where I stand on that.
Moving on:
Sure. But Wesley isn’t Washington & Jefferson, Montclair State or Albright. I’ve seen all these teams, and I’ll lay my hat on that. Mount Union has roared into the semis or Salem before and been beaten. It might not happen, but it certainly could.
Hey, I’ve also thought Wesley has been a match for UW-Whitewater before; I just went back and looked, I picked UW-W in both semis, but by 31-28 and 28-21. And this is before UW-W was automatic as they are now.
I look back at my miscalculations from those years and figure that UWW’s line play was at another level from Wesley. And it might be again this year, but I’ve seen enough of Mount Union to feel confident they can cause problems, even if the Wolverines don’t ultimately win.
BL is this. If you lined up Wesley and Mount Union’s players and picked teams, you’d take more Wesley players earlier. Mount Union has beaten teams on raw talent before, but if they win tomorrow, it’ll be because they took better care of the ball, picked up coaches’ schemes better and played better as a TEAM.
I’m gonna use this on the air tomorrow, but I’ll preview it here for the diehards. You know how normally you watch a game by following where the ball is snapped, then run or thrown?
Watch tomorrow’s game by looking at the O- and D-lines, and let them guide you to the play. I sometimes forget/struggle to do that, but it’s so helpful when you have a game like tomorrow’s that’ll be decided by line play.
A few other thoughts in case anyone is bored Saturday morning:
– We mention the Wesley DL a lot, but forgot to mention the OLBs, Jeff Morgan and Mike Asiedu. Two weeks ago, Morgan was everywhere. He’s a player.
– Mount Union’s D absolutely swarms to the ball. It’s awesome to watch, they read and react and get there so quickly. If I’m Wesley, I try to use that against them a little.
– Wesley’s got a couple of good safties, but I can only name one CB (Reggie Millner) off top after seeing them three times. That probably doesn’t bode well. I don’t think they’re gonna be able to 1-on-1 Shorts, but I bet Petruziello gets a matchup MUC can better exploit.
– Didn’t mention Ellis Krout, but he’s got to have a huge game for Wesley tomorrow. He’s got to go hard the entire time and keep his head on straight. When he’s causing problems, it makes Gene Knight, CJ Bacote, Sean McAndrew, et. al. even better.
– Wesley OL vs. MUC DL … might be a big problem. Lotta quickness on that DL, and I really don’t have a great feel for Wesley’s OL. Off and on. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wesley’s smaller RBs lost some PT to Hassan Alston or whoever is best at staying in to help block.
– Drew McClain makes at least one crazy play tomorrow. As a former DB, I like seeing other really good DBs. And for as much as we hear about LB Judd Lutz, I can’t think of a play that really stands out that he made in the first three playoff games. Doesn;t mean there wasn’t one, after you’ve seen as many games as i have, stuff starts to blur. But I bet he plays big tomorrow too. (I know, out on limb there, right?)
– I really like Terrance Morring’s running style.
– MUC nowhere near 5 turnovers tomorrow, I’m sure. If Wesley can create 2 and turn them into points, that’d be a huge help.
Okay. It was a long drive from Va. to Ohio, figured I might as well share some of these things that pop into my head.
“All I’m saying above is if Pat and I are wrong, it’s not because we haven’t put the work in.”
At least we can’t both be wrong on MTU-WSLY. 🙂
PA_Wesleyfan I’ve never seen Shane play,looks like I will today
good luck today and let the good times roll
Keith
Aaron Benson and Marcus Wilson 🙂 Those are Wesley’s safties!! They have 11 INT’s between them, Benson with 7
I seemed to have missed some solid discussion while playing Santa at a company Christmas party (note to single guys: Santa jacket = ultimate accessory). rather than get long winded and respond to specifics I will say this: I haven’t seen any team play and have only heard radio broadcasts of 2 of them. Because of that I have to go with the chalk.
MUC 34 Wesley 31
UWW 27 Linfield 13
see ya in Salem!