Triple Take: Some still to debut

Squaring off against teammates during camp is one thing, but one of the most interesting things to watch is a team’s improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, after it gets that first real game under its belt. Do these squads have an advantage over teams that are debuting this week? Many would argue so, and there’s certainly some evidence of it in past seasons.

But, of course, there’s more to it than that. Below, check out who Pat, Keith and I are keeping an eye on this week:

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 4 Hardin-Simmons at Linfield.
For the Cowboys, the wear and tear of a long road trip could be balanced by the one game they already have in the bank, compared with their debuting opponent. Last week, HSU proved its determination and what kind of team it has the potential to be once all elements on offense, defense and special teams come together. I never take a Northwest Conference team for granted, but with as much as HSU has going for it, I hope this is a more balanced pick than my choice for last Saturday’s Game of the Week.
Keith’s take: No. 7 UW-Stevens Point at Central. The bigger names will be in Oregon, and a nod to the Cowboys and Wildcats for keeping their high-profile series going. The Pointers’ visit to Pella, Iowa however might tell us more about where this season is headed. UW-SP got a early-season test against a quality Division III opponent, something that seems difficult for WIAC schools to do. If they show well, they could be a team that defeats Whitewater again. Same with Central, national observers want to see if this is a team that will regain its place among IIAC contenders (likely) and cause trouble in the West Region playoff picture.
Pat’s take: No. 18 Montclair State at Wilkes. This is especially for those who like defense. It’s the third year in a row the teams have played and nobody has scored more than 14 points in either of the two previous meetings. Wilkes set the tone with a 14-12 win against Muhlenberg in Week 1 and is trying to shake off back-to-back 4-6 seasons after going 11-1 in 2006.

Surprisingly close game
Ryan’s take: No. 8 Ithaca at Union.
The Bombers can’t let their 45-0 drubbing on St. Lawrence get to their heads. In almost every category, Union will be an improvement over Ithaca’s Week 1 matchup — and if Matt Scalice & Co. can’t put the brakes on Hobart rusher Chris Coney, points will start racking up fast.
Keith’s take: Cal Lutheran at Willamette. Just because they’re fuming from last week’s upset, don’t think the Bearcats win easy. The Kingsmen have to travel from Malibu up the coast to Oregon, but they’re bringing 18 starters on the trip, including quarterback Jericho Toilolo. A seven-win team last season, Cal Lutheran will throw a scare into Willamette.
Pat’s take: Buffalo State at St. John Fisher. If it were a game of fan morale, I would suspect Buffalo State wins in a blowout. But Fisher is the better team on paper and is playing at home. I just don’t think they are going to handle Buff State the way they should. Fisher still wins but … it’s surprisingly close.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Hobart.
Here’s another team that will get dogged by the fact that it is debuting against a tough opponent that already has a game — and a win — under its belt. The Statesmen’s defense will have to play one of its best games of the season against the 1-2-3 punch of Mitchell, O’Connor and Lord, which will feel more like a 7-8-9 punch by the time the day is over.
Keith’s take: No. 11 St. John’s. It’s never wise to go against the Johnnies, but if they needed 14 points in the final 8:38 to get past UW-River Falls in Week 1, we’ve got to assume UW-Eau Claire — four spots higher in the WIAC preseason poll and three more wins last season — will be more trouble. Not that football usually goes as you’d expect. The Blugolds took a 14-0 lead nine minutes into their opener against NAIA Bethel (Tenn.) last week and went on to win, so the Johnnies don’t even have the ‘played one more game’ advantage.
Pat’s take: None. I think Franklin will struggle, but losing to Butler wouldn’t really be an upset in my mind. Well, maybe Montclair State. Or Wheaton. Or St. John’s. But I don’t have that lock feeling about any of them the way I did last week.

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: Grove City.
The Wolverines went toe-to-toe with possibly the Centennial’s best team last week, even leading by a hair early in the fourth quarter. With Carnegie Mellon on tap for Saturday, Grove City has another chance to showcase its massive multi-pronged offense — only this time for a win.
Keith’s take: Curry. Mostly because I’ll be there. But also because the NEFC (whose schedule also features Endicott playing RPI, Coast Guard taking on rival Merchant Marine and Fitchburg State introducing Anna Maria to the world of established Division III programs) is gaining in stature and has a MAC contender (Widener) coming to Milton. Play tough opponents and we will come.
Pat’s take: Beloit. The Buccaneers won’t end up being contenders in the Midwest Conference, to be sure, not ahead of Monmouth and St. Norbert, but Beloit is keyed on this week’s game against Carroll. Beloit lost 10-0 on the road last year, a game which kept the program from its first winning season since 2002. But Beloit at 2-0 for the first time this century? Could happen.

Team playing its opener you’re most curious about
Ryan’s take: No. 16 Wabash.
Yeah, I’m playing the homer card, but for good reason: The Little Giants had some key holes to fill this year on the defensive line and will be going up a Denison team that ran for 275 yards in its opener. Not to mention that as Wabash itself tries to establish a ground game, it will face two solid linebackers in Bill Aukerman and Taylor Dlouhy — with the Little Giants possibly being forced into a more one-dimensional offense with the pass.
Keith’s take: No. 5 Wheaton. Eager to see how the Thunder perform against Bethel for a few reasons. First, a top-half CCIW team vs. top-half MIAC team is usually going to be a good game. Second, we hear change is afoot at Wheaton, although we’re sworn to secrecy until Saturday afternoon. Third, after Ohio Northern upset conference rival North Central — not to mention the apple cart — the Thunder is playing for CCIW pride. A win probably makes Wheaton the highest-ranked conference team until at least the Augustana game Oct. 10.
Pat’s take: No. 7 UW-Stevens Point. Did the Pointers save all their emotion for the UW-Whitewater game last year and forget to play the rest of the season? They needed overtime at home to beat Oshkosh, beat Eau Claire by one and then lost at home to Wartburg. They do have 17 starters back, including 10 on offense, but they could stand for that offense to be a little more effective, especially on the ground.

The MAC and MIAC are undefeated; which of these two conferences comes closest to maintaining that torch in Week 2?
Ryan’s take: The MAC.
There isn’t a game on this week’s schedule that isn’t winnable, but the tough slate (including Curry, Montclair State, Alfred, Rowan) should be worth a lot of recognition and prove that the conference is again ready to be mentioned among the nation’s big boys. A 6-2 outing is more likely, but an 8-0 result isn’t out of the question.
Keith’s take: The MIAC. I realize this goes against the St. John’s pick above, but I also realize how Ryan carefully worded the question. “Comes closest” … I honestly see the MAC struggling with a slate of Montclair State, Rowan, Curry, Alfred, Kean, Springfield, Western Connecticut and Ursinus more than the MIAC against its nine opponents.
Pat’s take: The MAC. The MIAC has at least four very losable games and probably only three locks. If Gustavus Adolphus, St. John’s, Bethel and Augsburg all win, I’d be surprised.

Which potential shootout will tally the most points from its two teams combined?
Ryan’s take: Gettysburg at Hampden-Sydney.
In Week 1, these two teams combined for 97 points and 1,199 yards. And the teams they earned those stats again hardly qualify as pushovers. The Tigers should emerge from this OK Corral the victors, but it won’t be easy.
Keith’s take: Carthage at Hope. If you’re looking for fireworks, one could do worse than a game that ended 70-46 last season. The Red Men have quarterback Evan Jones back under center, while the Flying Dutchmen have a new QB, but eight other offensive starters back and a game under their belts.
Pat’s take: St. Scholastica at Maranatha Baptist. What? Ryan took the obvious answer already. But a young program against a undermanned but spirited program could be quite entertaining.

10 thoughts on “Triple Take: Some still to debut

  1. Man, Franklin just can’t get any respect! Last week it was “Franklin could have a short stay in the top 25” and we heard all about how tough Baldwin-Wallace was. As it turned out, you were right about BW, but Franklin made the 330-mile trip and came away with the victory. This week, Franklin is once again listed in the “Top 25 team most likely to be upset” column. I understand that we lost an excellent quarterback in Chad Rupp, but keep an eye on Kyle Ray. I watched him play in high school, and he is the real deal. If Franklin follows form and improves drastically from week 1 to week 2, I’d take Franklin on their home turf against Butler. Also, how does Butler beat a tough BW team on the road and stay at number 19 while teams like Wabash and Montclair State move up (and even past Franklin) without even playing a game? I’ll watch for your comment – I appreciate your articles and all the hard work that goes into D3Football.com.

  2. I made one change – I said Butler beat BW and meant to say Franklin. I have corrected it below. Thanks!

    Man, Franklin just can’t get any respect! Last week it was “Franklin could have a short stay in the top 25″ and we heard all about how tough Baldwin-Wallace was. As it turned out, you were right about BW, but Franklin made the 330-mile trip and came away with the victory. This week, Franklin is once again listed in the “Top 25 team most likely to be upset” column. I understand that we lost an excellent quarterback in Chad Rupp, but keep an eye on Kyle Ray. I watched him play in high school, and he is the real deal. If Franklin follows form and improves drastically from week 1 to week 2, I’d take Franklin on their home turf against Butler. Also, how does Franklin beat a tough BW team on the road and stay at number 19 while teams like Wabash and Montclair State move up (and even past Franklin) without even playing a game? I’ll watch for your comment – I appreciate your articles and all the hard work that goes into D3Football.com

  3. KB — I’m not sure you read the item closely enough. They are mentioned, but nobody is calling for them to be upset. Honestly, I think Butler would be favored against a No. 19 team from what it sounds like Butler is trying to do with its program, build it up to add scholarships.

  4. St. John Fisher is going to be an “angry” team after having their heads handed to them by Mt. Union last week. It could be a long day for the Bengals tomorrow, IMO.

  5. Hobart most likely won’t be upset because of their defense. Sure they’ll give up some big yards, but Mitchell is prone to throw picks (and Hobart’s strength going into this game is their secondary). I also think Hobart’s offense – especially the running game – will be much improved from last season.

    That said I’ll take Hobart in a close one, 31-28.

    gohobart.blogspot.com

  6. BTW – in the IC/Union preview you mention Chris Coney as the “Hobart rusher”. Although the Statesmen would probably love to have another talent like Coney on their squad, this FLA native chose Union over us. His loss 😉

  7. I agree Hobart has it’s hands full and they could be upset. I disagree with the SJF assessment. I believe SJF will win in a blowout! And labart, yes we would like to have Coney. I’m not sure where running game for our team is going to come from this year. We have a tough schedule.

  8. Grove City’s Wolverines did rack up a lot of points last week, but the defense wasn’t the well oiled machine it can be. After working hard all week this game is a second chance to showcase their team quality. And the offense is just getting started… watch them run.

  9. Rivalry game – Secretaries’ Cup game – Merchant Marine Academy just edges past the Coast Guard Academy, 33-27 in two overtimes.

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