Quick Hits: Predicting the quarterfinals

We’re down to four games, so it’s time to bring a little commentary back — here’s our take on the national quarterfinal games, with, perhaps, something resembling explanation.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their crack at it this week and every week from here to Salem. Photos by; Frostburg State athletics; Delaware Valley athletics; Brockport athletics by Matt Yeoman.

Live video, live stats of quarterfinal games

— Pat Coleman

Wartburg at UW-Oshkosh

Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 42, Wartburg 14. Two of the nation’s five most-efficient passers, in Brett Kasper and Matt Sacia, are facing off, but the jump in level of competition for Wartburg will be evident along the lines.
Ryan’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Wartburg 17. The Knights have shaken off the postseason jitters, but the Titans will be beyond their reach. UW-O has already faced (and beaten) Wartburg-caliber teams this season.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 42, Wartburg 20. Oshkosh just has too much speed and too many offensive weapons for the Knights to account for.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 38, Wartburg 17. The Titans have too many playmakers on offense. Brett Kasper is playing his best at the most opportune time. Oshkosh will also be the best defense the Knights have faced this season.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 21, Wartburg 17. Would the real Wartburg please stand up?  Their two playoff games have been dynamically different, but Oshkosh’s defense will keep the score low.
Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 38, Wartburg 14. This is a large step up in class for Wartburg to take this week after wins over Franklin and Trine. I expect the Titan offense to be overwhelming and Oshkosh to advance comfortably.

Hansen odds to advance: UW-Oshkosh, 91%.
Consensus: Oshkosh, comfortably.

Frostburg State at Mount Union

Keith’s take: Mount Union 35, Frostburg State 21. Watch from the lines out; both teams have controlled their playoff games at the LOS; UMU QB D’Angelo Fulford hasn’t been hurried, much less sacked, in either playoff game.
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 31, Frostburg State 24. The question is: How much will this week’s weirdness be a factor? Mount’s offense won’t be on the field all the time, so Frostburg will have a chance to get some points.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Mount Union 31, Frostburg State 17. Great run for Bobcats, who might give Mount a run before running out of options on offense. They won’t have as much success keeping the Mount offense on the sideline.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Mount Union 28, Frostburg State 20. Frostburg’s style of play gives it a better chance than most against the Purple Raiders. The Bobcats are not lacking confidence and will pull out all the stops to keep this season going. I just don’t see Mount Union losing in Alliance.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Mount Union 35, Frostburg State 27. Frostburg beat W&J despite 3 INTs by Cox.  He has to play error-free ball, and the Bobcats must take what they’re given offensively. Yet, UMU has the depth to win this late.
Greg’s take: Mount Union 31, Frostburg St. 24. Turnovers are a bugaboo for the Bobcats and this is the place that you can’t get away with giving it away. The Bobcats are going to push Mount Union, but ultimately I think they are one turnover too many away from advancing.

Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 95%.
Consensus: Mount Union in the 30s, Frostburg State in the 20s.

St. Thomas at Mary Hardin-Baylor

Keith’s take: UMHB 18, St. Thomas 14. Both defenses smother their opponents’ run games, while trying to establish the run. With freshman QB Carl Robinson III starting, expect the Cru to get conservative and keep it low-scoring.
Ryan’s take: UMHB 24, St. Thomas 14. It’s hard to ignore a team that shut out a Top 10 opponent just last week. Lights-out defense for the Cru will carry them yet another playoff level deeper.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: UMHB 17, St. Thomas 13. A special teams score on one side, a gadget play on the other, perhaps, could make it higher scoring in the end, but not by much.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: St. Thomas 27, UMHB 24. This matchup could belong in Salem two weeks later. As long as the Tommies limit their turnovers, their defense will torment the Cru’s inexperienced QB(s) enough to survive and advance.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: UMHB 34, St. Thomas 21. This will be a low-scoring game early, with UMHB pulling away late. The Cru have lacked offensive oomph this year — but have been a defensive power overall.
Greg’s take: St. Thomas 17, UMHB 14. This is about the time in the tournament where freshman quarterbacks make me nervous. These great defenses may play to a stalemate, with some Glenn Caruso special teams sorcery being the deciding factor.

Hansen odds to advance: St. Thomas, 52%.
Consensus: A split decision for a low-scoring game favoring Mary Hardin-Baylor.

Brockport at Delaware Valley

Keith’s take: Brockport 31, Delaware Valley 21. The Golden Eagles’ versatility makes the difference in the only road win of the quarters. Brockport allows 1.18 yards per rush; Del Val gains 5.82, and that’s where we’ll see one side fissure.
Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 31, Brockport 30. Though Brockport has has the tougher road to get to this point, I think Del Val’s defense will hold the Golden Eagles just shy of victory in the long run.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Brockport 28, Delaware Valley 13. A game in which the Golden Eagles are in control early and methodically close out Del Val.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Delaware Valley 42, Brockport 41. The Aggies’ aggressive defense and special teams will come up with just enough big plays. A blocked kick could end up being the difference, as quarterbacks Dashawn Darden and Joe Germinerio go toe-to-toe in a game good enough to make us forget Round Two.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Brockport 20, Delaware Valley 14. Many focus on their offenses, but these defenses have been impeccable of late. This will be a slugfest that Brockport wins very late based on a big defensive play.
Greg’s take: Brockport 35, Delaware Valley 14. Joe Germinerio may be the most outstanding player of the tournament so far. He’ll be great again and the Golden Eagles will have a surprisingly comfortable ride to the semifinals.

Hansen odds to advance: Delaware Valley, 55%.
Consensus: Brockport, by varying degrees.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.

8 thoughts on “Quick Hits: Predicting the quarterfinals

  1. UWO 27 Wartburg 10
    UMU 42 Frostburg 10——Mounts getting no. 13 this year.
    UHMB 21 st thomas 17
    delaware 31 brockport 30

  2. St Thomas over Mary Hardin Baylor
    Brockport over Del Valley
    UWO over Wartburg
    Frostburgh over Mt Union

    All 4 games are interesting games the one that most intrigues me is MHB UST –

  3. Tommies in last minute pull it off

    Brockport for one more week

    UWO in a 2 score game

    Mount Big on to #13

  4. UWO 42 Wartburg 21

    Frostburg 28 UMU 24 …a shocker

    Brockport 31 Delaware Valley 21

    UMHB 24 St.Thomas 21

  5. I think I’ll wait to make my prediction on the Mt. Union game until I check the police blotter, you don’t know how many of the Purple Raiders will be in jail Saturday.

  6. Mount Union 41 Frostburg State 14
    Mary Hardin Baylor 24 St Thomas 21
    Oshkosh 34 Wartburg 17
    Brockport 31 Delaware Valley 20

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