It’s all over but the number crunching, right?
Some years Pool B is a bear. Pool C is always a bear. And bracketing the teams is often easy to project but distasteful to do thanks to the NCAA’s grip on the pursestrings.
This year, at least, Pool B is easy. Three teams ran the table and finished 10-0, with Washington & Jefferson finishing 9-1. There were no other one-loss teams … or teams with two overall losses … in Pool B. Carnegie Mellon will give the UAA a playoff representative for the first time since 1999.
Pool C was not as easy. There are nine teams with one loss and only seven spots in Pool C. This year our team of bracketologists went one step further in our playoff projections, mocking up the final regional rankings that the committee will work from. We felt this was important with the shuffling in the East Region and especially the West, because Pool C candidates are evaluated in the order in which they are ranked in the region. The top team on the board in each of the four regions are evaluated against each other, and once a team is put in the field, the next team from its region replaces it on the list.
These are the primary criteria (not in priority order) which will be reviewed by the NCAA:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• In-region head-to-head competition
• In-region results against common regional opponents
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams.
Opponents are considered ranked only if they are ranked at the time of the ranking or playoff selection process.
• Quality of wins index–only contests versus regional competition (see Quality of Wins on the left-hand rail for most recent calculation)
• Conference postseason contest(s) is included.
One thing was brought home to me over the past year: Note that some areas say “results†against regional opponents, regionally ranked teams, etc. This does not say winning percentage. It’s possible that merely playing a regionally ranked team and losing is better than going 0-0. Something to keep in mind.
Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, through the end of the regular season.
Wilkes Bracket
1. Wilkes (A)
2. Springfield (A)
3. St. John Fisher (C)
4. Hobart (C)
5. Union (A)
6. Rowan (A)
7. Dickinson (A)
8. Curry (A)
Hobart and Union are conference rivals, who do not need to meet in the first round as long as the NCAA’s “geographic proximity” is maintained. Curry plays at Wilkes, Dickinson at Springfield, Union at St. John Fisher and Rowan at Hobart. Dickinson moves over because … alas … we do not project Cortland State to be in the bracket. More on those decisions later.
Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Capital (C)
3. Concordia (Wis.) (A)
4. Wheaton (C)
5. Mt. St. Joseph (A)
6. North Central (A)
7. Wittenberg (A)
8. Hope (A)
No shuffling required here. Remember, the NCAA has not flinched in the past at rematches of teams that met in non-conference games. Therefore, Wittenberg playing Capital again and Concordia and North Central meeting up is not a problem. Mt. St. Joseph cost itself a home game with its loss to Thomas More. Again note who’s absent, just the two Pool C teams in this bracket.
Wesley Bracket
1. Wesley (B)
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
3. Hardin-Simmons (C)
4. Carnegie Mellon (B)
5. Washington and Jefferson (B)
6. Christopher Newport (A)
7. Millsaps (A)
8. Washington and Lee (A)
Wow, Washington and Lee, falling behind a team that wasn’t even in the regional rankings last week. Ouch. Bad way to go into the playoffs. Now, of course, this is a vastly geographically challenged bracket. Millsaps can get to Mary Hardin-Baylor in 491.7 miles according to the NCAA’s approved mapping software (Mappoint, available to all online, with the shortest possible distance setting as always). This opens up a potential flight to bring someone to Hardin-Simmons, and Christopher Newport is seeded perfectly for the task. The two Pittsburgh-area teams play each other … and Washington and Lee goes to Wesley.
Wait, did we just construct a South bracket where the seedings hold true? Stop the presses!
Oh, right, no presses on the Web. So we march on.
UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. Central (A)
3. Whitworth (B)
4. UW-La Crosse (C)
5. Occidental (A)
6. Bethel (A)
7. St. John’s (C)
8. St. Norbert (A)
This is another bracket that requires a flight, with Occidental and Whitworth the logical teams to pair. St. Norbert treks to Whitewater, St. John’s to Central and Bethel to UW-La Crosse.
So our seven Pool C teams: Capital, St. John Fisher, Hobart, Wheaton, Hardin-Simmons, UW-La Crosse and St. John’s. The final three teams at the end were St. John’s, Cortland State and Franklin. (Trinity, as the top remaining South team, was also on the board but wasn’t a factor.) All three have very similar criteria.
We pondered some bracket scenarios in case the NCAA selected Franklin. That would put them in the North bracket in the No. 6 spot. North Central, most likely, would lift out of the North and head to the West where they would be a No. 8 seed, behind St. Norbert in most of the criteria. If they selected Cortland, then Dickinson stays in the South as the No. 6, Washington and Jefferson would likely move to the North, likely as the No. 6, and North Central goes to the West.
Pat –
What are you doing still posting on here?! Shouldn’t you be in makeup? 🙂
Looking forward to the show!
For the anchors sake, no Muhlenberg, Thiel or UW-Eau Claire this year.
Actually, yes, heading to makeup now. 🙂
If Cortland doesn’t make it in I will not be following D3 football anmore. I amy as well follow Division I, or maybe even Boxing or figure skating where we can expect somebody to be screwed.
I have to have faith in the system here.
And I hope none the people who make the postseason selections are on the staff of D3football, it is bad enough if they check out the site they would be negatively influenced….
9-1 with the only loss against a strong Rowan team on the road in OT with the 3rd string QB….
Shame Shame if they leave Cortland out
Give me a break — we’d love to have that kind of influence. We do not.
Don’t make us the enemy just because we project your team to be out. That’s going a little far.
Cstate,
Two one-loss teams are going to be left out, that’s just the nature of the beast this year. It may or may not be Cortland. The Pool C field this year happens to be more full than years past with one-loss teams. In years past, we may not even be having this discussion. In the 28-team field, more one-loss teams would be left out. And before the present system, the NCAA would select the four best teams from one particular region. And usually that guaranteed all kinds of gripes.
While the system isn’t perfect, it’s the best one that the NCAA has. Someone is going to be upset, that happens. It’s just like the NCAA basketball tournament, there’s always teams that probably should be in, but do not receive a bid.
If Cortland does not get selected for the playoffs, its no reason not to follow Division III football anymore. It’s like not getting picked in kickball after you’ve been playing it all school year, and because you’re not picked, you take your things and go home.
Johnny–
I understand the comparison but you are way off–this is a bit more important than if I get picked for kickball….and if I was one of the best 15 kickball players in the area and I wasnt picked for a 32 player team I wouldnt think that was right either….
Pat: I really have enjoyed following D3 football on the site this year!!! You do an awesomne job!! I know many folks here are pulling for Franklin to get in….high powered offense and a lot of defense coached by one of the classiest coaches in D3 in Mike Leonard makes an unbeatable combination. In or out, Franklin loses Danny Sears to graduation, but not a huge senior class…. Chad Rupp is a sophmore and TJ Hartsfield is a junior, so the future is really bright for the Grizzlies……keep a close eye on them!!!!
For what it’s worth, I never liked kickball.
Okay — that’s not worth very much. 🙂
Pat –
As soon as the commentator next to you starts to make a point, I want you to get a crazed look on your face, stare at the camera, and yell “NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!”
Do it. That will make me laugh. 🙂
CState- Cortland in may push UW-LaCrosse or SJU out. UW-LaCrosse is the number 10 team in the AFCA poll and number 8 in the D3football poll; SJU was number 3 in both polls and will fall, but I would doubt no lower than 13 or so (near Rowan). So in that case, Cortland would be the worst ranked of the three. Does it make sense to include Cortland at the expense of one of the other two then?
Works for me 🙂
Hey CORTLANDFOOTBALL … I am the commentator that sits next to Pat… he better not pull any Corso stuff on me!! Good luck!
HERE WE GO !
REDICULOUS…..I’M DONE.
One last note:
Pat sits on air in front of the nation and says Rowan could be a sleeper to go far and to make some noise….but he tries to justify leaving Cortland out when their only loss was to his man loving Rowan team in Rowan in OT…
This just makes my skin crawl…
later D3 people, I may as well go play kickball then watch some boxing….
LOL…an OT loss to a top team on the road with a 3rd string QB..unreal…
One last note:
Pat sits on air in front of the nation and says Rowan could be a sleeper to go far and to make some noise….but he tries to justify leaving Cortland out when their only loss was to his man loving Rowan team in Rowan in OT…
This just makes my skin crawl…
later D3 people, I may as well go play kickball then watch some boxing….
LOL…an OT loss to a top team on the road with a 3rd string QB..unreal…
OOps., sorry about the double post
Thank you for your patience. We had to disable the Dose for a few minutes while our server loads sky-rocketed. They should remain online the rest of the day.
“On top of that, it seems when they do play each other in the playoffs, the East team has to travel across the country rather than the other way around. Think RPI being shipped to St John’s.
I have a novel idea. Let’s see a MIAC team travel to Glassboro to play Rowan in the playoffs? Or send them to Union? I wonder how strong the west would look after traveling that far and playing on the other team’s turf and dealing with a hostile crowd.”
—
How much is a home crowd worth: 28 points?
It was 38-10 SJU over RPI.
52 points?
It was 52-zip Linfield over Rowan, the beast of the East.
Who knew Courtland was such fabulous whine country. (I’ll take an Oregon bottle anyday.)
Easy CState. It has nothing to do with Pat. I thought he gave us some props on national TV when he and Dari mentioned us as one of the surprise teams to be left out. ESPNews also showed numerous video highlights of Cortland, which I thought was great.
This is highly disappointing, but the system is what the system is.
Dari – nicely done. Hope you have better news for us next year.
Congratulations to the teams which made it in. Hopefully Eastern Region steps up this playoff.
When does the ECAC Selection show start? 🙂
“I wonder who the highest ranked team in a D3Football poll to never make the playoffs was?”
My guess was Ohio Northern last year. Gordon did the math and gave you the answer.
“CSTATE89to93 Says:
later D3 people, I may as well go play kickball then watch some boxing…”
Good riddance.
It’s one thing to be mad about your team being left out. It’s another thing to take out on the guy delivering the message. You ever heard the phrase “don’t shoot the messenger.”
Clearly, since D3football.com’s poll has Cortland well into the top 20, we think they’re one of the 32 best teams in the country. But the playoffs are set up for fair access, not necessarily to be fair.
I think any 9-1 team with a legitimate schedule whose only loss is in overtime to the automatic qualifier should be in. That is a textbook Pool C case in my view. But Cortland is out, and you can’t blame the committee, and you most certainly can’t blame D3football.com.
Cortland had its shot on the field. That, by definition, is “fair access.” Having been at the Rowan game, I know Cortland had its shots at winning, despite the QB troubles.
The committee sets its at-large criteria out well in advance, and sticks to it. You have to admire them for that. The reasons for one team getting in over another are generally there in writing.
When that criteria benefitted Cortland’s 8-2 team last year, I don’t remember you or any other alumni crying about how unfair it was.
It’s not a perfect system, but it is explained in advance, in writing, and it’s much, much better than the alternative.
If you can’t be rational about your team not getting in (try emulating CortlandFootball), I’m sure everyone here would just as soon have you be a figure skating or kickball fan.
Forgive me if this has been mentioned, but Pat’s projection not only nailed all 32 teams, but got 22 of the seeds correctly, 23 if you count W&L being an 8 seed in the East, not the South as Pat guessed.
The other seeds were all off by no more than one spot, except Rowan, which Pat had as a 6 and the committee a 4.
And frankly, I think Pat’s South Region, regardless of whether Dickinson or W&L is the 8 seed, makes more sense than the committee’s.
I was completely hands off the playoff predictions and saw them the same way/time fans saw them, so my congrats are true, not just a way to have one site guy pat the other site guy on the back.
Thanks, man. But credit has to go to Gordon Mann as well. He’s worked with me on bracketology for a few years now, both football and basketball. I don’t do it alone.
I like these points:
CortlandFootball “Why is Rowan always ranked so low in these projections? Am I missing something? They lost 1 D3 game, in the NJAC, in OT to a long time rival with a 7-3 record. Look at Fisher’s loss – a blowout. Look at Hobart’s loss – a blowout. Springfield lost 24-7 to IC, which lost to Cortland, which lost to Rowan.”
CNU85 “…..if CNU has to play a Texas team…they come to our house!! ”
Course, you never have to worry about a Texas team leaving Texas early. 🙁
GordonMann: “Incidentally I spoke with Del Val Head Coach Jim Clements after yesterday’s game. He said it best – if you don’t win the conference, you don’t control your own destiny and there’s a good chance you’re not getting in.”
Right on, coach.
Thanks for the props Keith. I wish I knew you were on the field at the Rowan game. I would have liked to have met you.
CState89to93 is frustrated. So am I. I think he will probably regret what he wrote, and realize he overreacted. Don’t be too hard on him. I also agree we were lucky to have the system benefit Cortland in 2005. Though I would gladly trade the 2005 bid for the 2006 bid considering how much better this team is than last year’s team was.
I also have to give Pat, Gordon, and the staff a ton of credit. You guys absolutely nailed it. Even if Pat didn’t follow my directions on air, I still enjoyed the too.
Here are some more questions for you guys:
1) Why does the NCAA look at regional victories so closely, if they are choosing between teams on a national level? In other words, if it comes down to between Hobart and St John’s for the final Pool C bid, what does Hobart’s eastern record have to do with St John’s western record? It is not in any way a worthwhile comparision. It seems to me it would actually be better to look at records OUTSIDE of region in this case.
2) Why does the NCAA rely on QoW for D3? In D1, the (much maligned) BCS takes advantage of the existence of well-developed, well-researched computer ranking systems. Many of these ranking systems also rank D3 teams. Why wouldn’t the NCAA use them? I have a lot more faith in what Massey thinks of a team, than in what QoW thinks of a team.
3) Is there any movement afoot to simply combine Pool’s B and C? Within 2 years it looks like almost everyone except for the independents, and a few conferences, will be Pool A/C eligible.
Pat –
The other thing I forgot to mention is I wanted to thank you for using my picture from Cortaca on the D3Football front page. I appreciate the exposure (no pun intended).
Of all the pictures I have taken the last few years, that is one of my favorites. I have it on my computer desktop. Considering how lousy the conditions were that day I was pleasantly surprised at how well the pictures came out.
CortlandFootball, the NCAA is exploring using opponents’ opponents’ record instead of QOWI in in D3 sports in the next few seasons. I believe that they are getting the bugs out now.
Cortland,
Ah, you didn’t miss much, not meeting me. I’m sure I’ll see Cortland again, although I picked another fine year to not go to Cortaca. I’m sure when I finally go it’ll be 45-7.
The emphasis on regional games, as I understand it, was to encourage Division III schools, most of whom are on very limited budgets, to schedule manageable trips first, rather than trying to have superpowers play each other. You can do that if you want to, but they’re saying that game can’t help or hurt you, at least in primary criteria.
However, I think the D3 powers that be admitted the regional emphasis is flawed when it changed the regional game designation this year, basically making everything but Colby vs. Cal Lutheran a regional game. Because there are so few D3s west of the Rockies and in the Southern part of the country, those schools had very limited scheduling options, and were going into the playoffs with six and seven regional games when other teams had 10. Going 6-1 was always going to have them losing to a 9-1, by percentage, so I’m guessing they felt it was unfair.
I think we make too big a deal of QoWI. If I were on the committee, I would only use it to point out major schedule discrepancies. The 10.222 of Cortland vs. 10.000 of St. John’s, for example, doesn’t tell us a whole lot, and I think the committee was justified in going either way on those two teams. You never want some random result, like whether Carleton beat Hamline, to determine whether St. John’s is more worthy than Cortland.
When the PAC and NWC get their AQs next year and the year after, respectively, there may hardly be a Pool B at all. The UMAC is breaking up into the SLIAC and getting an AQ in 2010 or 11 too.
Ralph breaks this all down somewhere on Post Patterns, I think deep in the Pool B thread. It paints a pretty clear picture, or at least an educated guess, of where the Pool system is headed.
I do believe the goal is to have everyone be able to say they had a legitimate shot at a playoff bid when the season started.