It’s that time of year again, our first playoff projections.

This is where we take the 21 automatic bids, eight of which are not yet set, then figure out at-large bids, some of which will lose between now and Selection Sunday, then seed them and pair them up logically … or fiscally … or geographically … or randomly, depending on the bracket.

In doing this every year, we have to toe a fine line. We can call some conference races, leave some open, pretend we know what’s going to happen, or ignore what has yet to be played. This is an inexact science, but it’s an attempt to look at the entire field using the NCAA’s stated selection/seeding criteria. But you can’t simply try to project one bracket in isolation. How do you know if there are eight West teams getting into the field, and not seven or nine or 10?

First, the basics:

Thirty-two teams will form four eight-team brackets. And we know the champions of 21 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Four bids (Pool B) are set aside for independents or members of non-automatic bid conferences. The remaining seven bids go to what’s called Pool C, which is everyone left over.

So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That’s what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. For more info check out our Playoff FAQ.

These are the primary criteria (not in priority order) which will be reviewed by the NCAA:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• In-region head-to-head competition
• In-region results against common regional opponents
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams.
Opponents are considered ranked only if they are ranked at the time of the ranking or playoff selection process.
• Quality of wins index–only contests versus regional competition (see Quality of Wins on the left-hand rail for most recent calculation)
• Conference postseason contest(s) is included.

One thing was brought home to me over the past year: Note that some areas say “results” against regional opponents, regionally ranked teams, etc. This does not say winning percentage. It’s possible that merely playing a regionally ranked team and losing is better than going 0-0. Something to keep in mind.

Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, updated Nov. 7. This is just a projection as if the season had ended today. Teams in bold have clinched automatic bids.

Wilkes Bracket
1. Wilkes (a)
2. Springfield (a)
3. Union (a)
4. St. John Fisher (c)
5. Hobart (c)
6. Dickinson (a)
7. Rowan (a)
8. NEFC Champ (a)
The natural seedings avoid any conference rematches and the like, so there are no pairings shuffled here. No. 8 plays 1, 7-2, 6-3 and 5-4. … Dickinson moves from the South because only seven East teams were selected. … I don’t believe Curry can pass Rowan with a win in the NEFC title game. Regardless of who wins, the No. 8 seed is likely. … If St. John Fisher loses to Alfred, Alfred (projected .800 regional winning pct., approx. 10.700 QOW) has a shot at getting in. … By beating Cortland State, Ithaca (projected .778, 9.889) would likely to ensure neither team makes the playoffs. … By beating Ithaca, Cortland State (projected .889, 10.000) would likely get in and bump Dickinson back to the South.

Wesley Bracket
1. Wesley (b)
2. Trinity (Texas) (a)
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor (a)
4. Hardin-Simmons (c)
5. Carnegie Mellon (b)
6. Wash. & Jeff. (b)
7. Christopher Newport (a)
8. Wash. & Lee (a)
Yes, we know, Trinity has certainly not wrapped up the SCAC. If Millsaps wins, it would be the No. 8 seed. … Unless you’re new to Division III, you know that travel restrictions will change the matchups in this bracket. The NCAA won’t fly three teams to Texas. This would have the following pairings: Washington and Lee at Wesley, Hardin-Simmons at Trinity (Texas), Christopher Newport at Mary Hardin-Baylor, Washington and Jefferson at Carnegie Mellon. … Note the NCAA doesn’t really try to avoid rematches of in-season non-conference games, but it does try to avoid a rematch of a conference game in the first round.

Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (a)
2. Mt. St. Joseph (a)
3. Concordia (Wis.) (a)
4. Capital (c)
5. Wheaton (c)
6. North Central (a)
7. Wittenberg (a)
8. Hope (a)
Standard matchups here. … The NCAA wouldn’t be concerned about matching NCC and CUW up again. … There’s a concern CUW’s facility isn’t sufficient to host (ask Carthage how that goes) and that game could be at NCC again, like it was in September’s double-overtime thriller.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (a)
2. St. John’s (a)
3. Central (a)
4. Whitworth (b)
5. UW-La Crosse (c)
6. Occidental (a)
7. St. Norbert (a)
8. Wartburg (c)
Air travel again, put Occidental at Whitworth and St. Norbert at UW-La Crosse (a 2004 rematch). (This was incorrect; a poster corrects me below) … St. John’s would be considered upset-proof — if it loses its conference title, it would still get in.

The four Pool B teams — Wesley, Whitworth, Carnegie Mellon and Washington and Jefferson — are pretty easy picks right now and only W&J is vulnerable. If the Presidents lose, it opens up the possibility that Linfield might make the field. Nobody else really has a shot in Pool B.

The final Pool C decision came down to Cortland State, Franklin and Wartburg. Wartburg had the better credentials for now, but if Cortland State wins it would probably get the nod. Franklin has fairly decent numbers as well and could be selected but the committee has traditionally looked down on runners-up in the bottom conferences (ask any one-loss team from the Midwest Conference since 1999).

We’ll do this again at the end of the night on Saturday, heading into Selection Sunday.