D3football.com Daily Dose | The daily dish on Division III football

Nov/12

16

Triple Take: We predict the scores

Taylor Copacia
Josh Mitchell was featured in Kickoff back in August and as we reach mid-November, he and North Central are still in the picture.
North Central photo by Steve Woltmann

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Roughly 200 teams have already turned in their gear for the season, but there is still lots of exciting football left to play. For many teams, the past 10 games have been a buildup to the playoffs and the chance to prove their worth on the national stage.

D3football.com’s coverage will be going strong over the next few weeks, and that began Thursday with our 32-team capsules, one of the cornerstones of our postseason reporting. They offer insight on how to tell if a team is playing well or poorly, along with how far into the bracket we think each team can make it. We also took a long-view look at who might surprise and disappoint by the time the first three rounds are in the books.

But you’re still hungry for more, right?

From now until the second weekend in December, Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps will not only pick the winners of games in Triple Take, but we’ll also project the scores. It’s a transparent test of our perceptions week in and week out. (And we each make our picks independently.)

These postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of expectations vs. outcome.
How does this work?

•   First, look at the scoring margin. If they are predicted to be a close game, we think the teams are evenly matched.
•   Second, look at the winners. If it’s a three-man sweep, we think there’s a clear favorite. If it’s a split decision, it’s definitely a toss-up.
•   Third, look at the total points. If most of us predict a lot of points, you can expect a shootout. Weather permitting, of course.

It’s not a competition between the three of us, so we have no stake in being right — we’d rather see you show off your smarts in the bracket challenge. Ryan, Keith and Pat aren’t keeping score, but usually the first weekend, each picks between 12 and 14 correct winners, often in the ballpark of the actual final. That means these Triple Take picks set the expectation, but we know at least a few teams will surprise us in the opening round. Will it be yours?

If you don’t feel your team is getting enough love, jump in and explain to us in the comments section below why they’re going to win. And if you’re feeling prescient, leave your final score guesses for any or all games below, and check back in afterward to see how you did. Be sure to follow the updates across the country on Twitter, using the hashtag #d3fb.

For more info on the 32-team race to Salem, including the brackets, info on each team and feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

LINFIELD BRACKET
Ryan’s take: Linfield 28, Pacific Lutheran 20
Keith’s take: Linfield 27, Pacific Lutheran 24
Pat’s take: Linfield 47, Pacific Lutheran 24

Ryan’s take: Cal Lutheran 30, North Central 28
Keith’s take: North Central 35, Cal Lutheran 34
Pat’s take: North Central 35, Cal Lutheran 32

Ryan’s take: Bethel 33, Concordia-Chicago 10
Keith’s take: Bethel 35, Concordia-Chicago 21
Pat’s take: Bethel 32, Concordia-Chicago 14

Ryan’s take: UW-Oshkosh 44, St. Scholastica 13
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 55, St. Scholastica 10
Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 56, St. Scholastica 6

ST. THOMAS BRACKET
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 43, St. Norbert 7
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 28, St. Norbert 7
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 45, St. Norbert 0

Ryan’s take: Coe 42, Elmhurst 13
Keith’s take: Coe 31, Elmhurst 21
Pat’s take: Elmhurst 38, Coe 35

Ryan’s take: Heidelberg 33, Wittenberg 24
Keith’s take: Heidelberg 21, Wittenberg 17
Pat’s take: Heidelberg 27, Wittenberg 20

Ryan’s take: Hobart 37, Washington and Lee 14
Keith’s take: Hobart 35, Washington and Lee 31
Pat’s take: Hobart 35, Washington and Lee 14

MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR BRACKET
Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 37, Louisiana College 21
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, Louisiana College 14
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Louisiana College 10

Ryan’s take: Adrian 21, Franklin 17
Keith’s take: Adrian 17, Franklin 14
Pat’s take: Adrian 21, Franklin 18

Ryan’s take: Cortland State 31, Framingham State 24
Keith’s take: Cortland State 29, Framingham State 15
Pat’s take: Cortland State 38, Framingham State 7

Ryan’s take: Wesley 41, Mount Ida 14
Keith’s take: Wesley 42, Mount Ida 20
Pat’s take: Wesley 62, Mount Ida 0

MOUNT UNION BRACKET
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 56, Christopher Newport 7
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Christopher Newport 0
Pat’s take: Mount Union 61, Christopher Newport 0

Ryan’s take: Washington and Jefferson 28, Johns Hopkins 27
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 28, Washington and Jefferson 17
Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 24, Washington and Jefferson 21

Ryan’s take: Salisbury 27, Rowan 20
Keith’s take: Salisbury 21, Rowan 12
Pat’s take: Rowan 31, Salisbury 20

Ryan’s take: Widener 49, Bridgewater State 24
Keith’s take: Widener 60, Bridgewater State 20
Pat’s take: Widener 63, Bridgewater State 6

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26 comments

  • Author comment by pg04 · November 16, 2012 at 11:07 am

    I can’t argue with too much here. One thing I disagree with is Keith’s prediction on the Hobart/W&L Score. I feel he’s either A) Giving too much credit to W&L or more likely B) He’s far too down on Hobart.

    And this is saying something coming from me, actually, because I actually have Hobart losing in the second round. Either way, can’t way to see how it plays out.

  • Author comment by Pat Coleman · November 16, 2012 at 11:37 am

    Yeah. I can’t speak for Keith but I did consider the thought that W&L has a pretty prolific offense. I just think that Hobart’s defense is pretty strong and W&L is of similar strength to the runners-up in the Liberty League, so I envisioned a similar result.

  • Author comment by Neil · November 16, 2012 at 11:40 am

    Great picks

    OOPs I missed the Adrian/Franklin slot anyway to get Franklin on my selections

  • Author comment by Pat Coleman · November 16, 2012 at 12:05 pm

    Well, we all think it’s less than a touchdown on Adrian’s side of the ledger, so Franklin winning is clearly a distinct possibility.

  • Author comment by Ron Boerger · November 16, 2012 at 1:12 pm

    Anyone want to revise their Rowan-Salisbury prediction with the Rowan QB being out, or was that factored in?

  • Author comment by grantbethelmn · November 16, 2012 at 1:29 pm

    I looked over all three of your selections and i agree with keith the most on almost all of the picks.. I still feel like Framingham State is going to give Cortland State everything and more.. I have St. Thomas winning the championship over Mount Union!! We will just have to wait and see

  • Author comment by ryantipps · November 16, 2012 at 1:37 pm

    @Ron: I wasn’t aware of the quarterback issue before I made my pick (learned of it this morning). I’m not changing my pick, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if that means Salisbury wraps the game up with a two-score lead instead of just a one-score.

  • Author comment by Pat Coleman · November 16, 2012 at 1:47 pm

    I wasn’t aware either but it would be disingenuous to change my score now.

    Anyone want to predict the games? Here’s the lists of matchups so you don’t have to type it all out. Just copy and paste. (Thanks to Tipps for the easy list.)

    LINFIELD BRACKET
    Pacific Lutheran at Linfield
    North Central at Cal Lutheran
    Bethel at Concordia-Chicago
    St. Scholastica at UW-Oshkosh

    ST. THOMAS BRACKET
    St. Norbert at St. Thomas
    Elmhurst at Coe
    Wittenberg at Heidelberg
    Washington and Lee at Hobart

    MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR BRACKET
    Louisiana College at Mary Hardin-Baylor
    Franklin at Adrian
    Framingham State at Cortland State
    Mount Ida at Wesley

    MOUNT UNION BRACKET
    Christopher Newport at Mount Union
    Washington and Jefferson at Johns Hopkins
    Rowan at Salisbury
    Bridgewater State at Widener

  • Author comment by pg04 · November 16, 2012 at 2:26 pm

    I will be bold enough to do this:

    LINFIELD BRACKET
    Pacific Lutheran 21 at Linfield 38
    North Central 31 at Cal Lutheran 34
    Bethel 27 at Concordia-Chicago 24
    St. Scholastica 0 at UW-Oshkosh 56

    ST. THOMAS BRACKET
    St. Norbert 7 at St. Thomas 42
    Elmhurst 21 at Coe 24
    Wittenberg 21 at Heidelberg 34
    Washington and Lee 17 at Hobart 38

    MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR BRACKET
    Louisiana College 28 at Mary Hardin-Baylor 45
    Franklin 10 at Adrian 13
    Framingham State 24 at Cortland State 56
    Mount Ida 14 at Wesley 52

    MOUNT UNION BRACKET
    Christopher Newport 0 at Mount Union 63
    Washington and Jefferson 27 at Johns Hopkins 26
    Rowan 21 at Salisbury 42
    Bridgewater State 14 at Widener 63

  • Author comment by Pat Coleman · November 16, 2012 at 2:38 pm

    pg04 — thanks! I think you’re the first in a few years to dive in.

  • Author comment by saintsfan · November 16, 2012 at 2:57 pm

    pg/Pat –

    I just don’t see W&L consistently moving the ball on Hobart’s defense. Is W&L better offensively than they were in 2010 when they were telling everyone they had a QB MADE for this system? This hurts me to say, but Hobart is better defensively than that Thomas More team’s defense was. TMC jumped on W&L early due to the Generals not being able to stop the run.

    NOTE: I had already picks Salisbury before the injury news from Rowan came out.

    Anyways, my picks are below:

    LINFIELD BRACKET
    Pacific Lutheran 31 at Linfield 38
    North Central 34 at Cal Lutheran 21
    Bethel 10 at Concordia-Chicago 28
    St. Scholastica 0 at UW-Oshkosh 48

    ST. THOMAS BRACKET
    St. Norbert 6 at St. Thomas 44
    Elmhurst 17 at Coe 21
    Wittenberg 24 at Heidelberg 28
    Washington and Lee 17 at Hobart 38

    MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR BRACKET
    Louisiana College 3 at Mary Hardin-Baylor 35
    Franklin 27 at Adrian 20
    Framingham State 17 at Cortland State 20
    Mount Ida 0 at Wesley 56

    MOUNT UNION BRACKET
    Christopher Newport 0 at Mount Union 68
    Washington and Jefferson 27 at Johns Hopkins 31
    Rowan 14 at Salisbury 24
    Bridgewater State 17 at Widener 34

  • Author comment by pg04 · November 16, 2012 at 2:58 pm

    I love making picks — And I’m usually really bad at predictions, so I think anyone can probably improve on what I put :).

  • Author comment by pg04 · November 16, 2012 at 3:26 pm

    I’m already getting bashed on the boards about not picking Wesley to win by enough, what is the difference when it comes to a 30 or 40 point victory, really?

  • Author comment by art76 · November 16, 2012 at 4:28 pm

    Here’s what I’m thinking:

    LINFIELD BRACKET
    Pacific Lutheran 20 at Linfield 31
    North Central 28 at Cal Lutheran 24
    Bethel 33 at Concordia-Chicago 6
    St. Scholastica 10 at UW-Oshkosh 35

    ST. THOMAS BRACKET
    St. Norbert 0 at St. Thomas 42
    Elmhurst 24 at Coe 21
    Wittenberg 21 at Heidelberg 27
    Washington and Lee 17 at Hobart 24

    MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR BRACKET
    Louisiana College 21 at Mary Hardin-Baylor 38
    Franklin 24 at Adrian 21
    Framingham State 14 at Cortland State 24
    Mount Ida 7 at Wesley 42

    MOUNT UNION BRACKET
    Christopher Newport 0 at Mount Union 45
    Washington and Jefferson 17 at Johns Hopkins 28
    Rowan 27 at Salisbury 35
    Bridgewater State 14 at Widener 24

    Apparently, I’m in the minority of folks that thinks Franklin can knock off Adrian in a close contest. It’s going to be another fun weekend of D3 football!

  • Author comment by Pat Coleman · November 16, 2012 at 5:09 pm

    Apparently, I’m in the minority of folks that thinks Franklin can knock off Adrian in a close contest.

    Art — I disagree. You’re not the only one who thinks Franklin can knock them off. It’s just that none of the three of us think they will knock them off.

  • Author comment by saintsfan · November 16, 2012 at 5:27 pm

    Pat — I’m with you on Franklin. I think it’ll be a touchdown, though. Unless thats not a close game?

  • Author comment by saintsfan · November 16, 2012 at 5:29 pm

    ok, nevermind. Apparently I got my reading comprehension skills from Mount St. Joe.

  • Author comment by art76 · November 17, 2012 at 12:32 am

    Touché Pat! There are a good number of close games being played tomorrow and not enough screens to have them all up at the same time – ugh!

  • Author comment by hazz · November 17, 2012 at 10:10 am

    LINFIELD BRACKET
    Pacific Lutheran 24 at Linfield 31
    North Central 38 at Cal Lutheran 35
    Bethel 42 at Concordia-Chicago 17
    St. Scholastica 7 at UW-Oshkosh 56

    ST. THOMAS BRACKET
    St. Norbert 0 at St. Thomas 49
    Elmhurst 28 at Coe 31
    Wittenberg 27 at Heidelberg 31
    Washington and Lee 17 at Hobart 35

    MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR BRACKET
    Louisiana College 27 at Mary Hardin-Baylor 42
    Franklin 14 at Adrian 20
    Framingham State 21 at Cortland State 35
    Mount Ida 13 at Wesley 45

    MOUNT UNION BRACKET
    Christopher Newport 7 at Mount Union 56
    Washington and Jefferson 24 at Johns Hopkins 27
    Rowan 14 at Salisbury 38
    Bridgewater State 10 at Widener 49

  • Author comment by centex · November 17, 2012 at 10:40 am

    • LINFIELD BRACKET
    Pacific Lutheran 21 at Linfield 42
    North Central 24 at Cal Lutheran 21
    Bethel 10 at Concordia-Chicago 18
    St. Scholastica 6 at UW-Oshkosh 38
    ST. THOMAS BRACKET
    St. Norbert 0 at St. Thomas 49
    Elmhurst 19 at Coe 20
    Wittenberg 14 at Heidelberg 31
    Washington and Lee 27 at Hobart 35
    MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR BRACKET
    Louisiana College 9 at Mary Hardin-Baylor 35
    Franklin 17 at Adrian 20
    Framingham State 17 at Cortland State 20
    Mount Ida 0 at Wesley 46
    MOUNT UNION BRACKET
    Christopher Newport 0 at Mount Union 70
    Washington and Jefferson 24 at Johns Hopkins 34
    Rowan 10 at Salisbury 24
    Bridgewater State 10 at Widener 34

  • Author comment by gomaledawgs · November 17, 2012 at 11:05 am

    This is a great site. Thanks for all you do. You guys have it close but all wrong for the Franklin College – Adrian College game. Franklin will win this game and win by at least 17.

  • Author comment by Pat Coleman · November 17, 2012 at 11:22 am

    This shows the great mystery that is Franklin. All we know is they are much worse than Mount Union and better than everyone else in the HCAC. There’s a long way in between those two ends.

  • Author comment by gomaledawgs · November 17, 2012 at 12:46 pm

    Well Franklin and Adrian do have one common opponent in Defiance. Franklin beat Defiance by 21 and Adrian beat them by 10.

  • Author comment by ryantipps · November 17, 2012 at 1:12 pm

    But Defiance played each team at very different points in the season. Adrian has gotten lots better as the season progressed, even going so far as to have a different starting quarterback. It’s tough to play the score comparison in this case.

  • Author comment by gomaledawgs · November 17, 2012 at 2:53 pm

    Franklin coasts to easy win 42-10. Next week will not be as easy. I hope the Grizzlies can give them a game down in Texas.

  • Author comment by kygrizz1 · November 18, 2012 at 9:01 am

    Guys: Clearly the NCAA had it totally wrong by slotting Franklin as a road team in the first round. Part of being a fan means you’ll always complain that your team never gets enough “love” from the media covering the sport. I realize the HCAC is generally not a highly respected football conference….I get that and its probably deserved…..having said that though Franklin is really solid and it shows. In the past the explosive offense has always been their trademark, but in the past few years the defense has really come together as a consistent unit. You have to appreciate what Mike Leonard does with his non conference schedule….last two years UW Whitewater and home openers with Mt. Union this year and next….his attitude is to be the best you have to play the best…..GRIZ fans love that and more than anything appreciate him for the man of character he is. No doubt we’re heavy underdogs at Mary Hardin Baylor….we should be, but we will show up and we will represent GRIZ Nation with a strong effort!! You guys really do an incredible job with this site….but maybe Franklin is not such a mystery anymore?

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