For the past four years, there have been at least two dominant teams — and often a third championship contender — playing this far into December. But you’d have to go back to 1998, when there were 16 teams in the playoffs and no D3football.com, to find the last season where both semifinals were close games. In each season since, at least one, and sometimes both, have been decided by 21 points or more.

It is in that vein, then, that seeing the teams ranked Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 5 in our pre-playoff poll meet, without a loss between them, excites us. Are we in line for the best Round 4 of the D3football.com era? Or just another coronation of the Purple Powers we’ve seen in Stagg Bowls 33, 34, 35 and 36? Wesley and Linfield hit the road to help decide, and to help you understand how we’ve decided on our picks, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman and I added something to our score projections and explanations this week: An estimate of how likely our pick is to pan out. It was thought that maybe with the home teams being traditional favorites, we’d at least pay the Wolverines and Wildcats some respect by acknowledging their chances to win, but turns out we were more than willing to stick our necks out.

— Keith McMillan

No. 3 WESLEY (13-0) at No. 1 Mount Union (13-0), Noon EST

Ryan: Wesley 31, Mount Union 30
Percentage chance Wesley will win: 35%
I’ve rewritten this blurb four times already, stopping each time I get to the point where I try to factor coaching into the equation. Hands down, Mount Union wins that aspect of the game. Then I circle back to last week, 13 games into the season, and wonder about a Mount team that certainly wasn’t playing poorly, but then again, also wasn’t playing quite as well as they had at this point the past five years. There, a window opens for Wesley. It’s not a wide window, mind you, but Wesley is a team of versatility and playmakers — all of which can surprise defenses that give them any slack. Best of all, under center is a quarterback who is both mobile and quick to get rid of the ball, key ingredients as the Mount defenders pound the Wolverines line. It’s a long shot, this game, but if any pre-Stagg Bowl team will have had a shot, it’s Wesley. Problems, though, will come if the defensive backs fail to be physical enough to stall Cecil Shorts and the other MUC wideouts or if the defensive line fails to clamp down.

 

Keith: Wesley 31, Mount Union 28
Percentage chance Wesley will win: 45%
I’ve been going over this pick in my head since the Saturday before last, and I’m no closer to sold. I can see either team winning, but time’s up, and my pick is in. The rationale is all over the board, since I’ve seen Wesley live three times and Mount Union on DVR three times. Simplified, something about this Mount Union team strikes me as beatable. Maybe it was the five turnovers against Albright. Maybe it’s the natural order of things, that the Purple Raiders seem to dominate in cycles, and just when we start to believe they’re unbeatable, someone unexpectedly takes them out. Maybe it’s that are fewer really special playmakers on the Purple Raiders than on the Wolverines. But the last two rounds of the Division III playoffs are always about how a team performs up front, and Mount Union is solid on both lines. Wesley’s defensive line looks special enough to cause problems the Purple Raiders’ linemen aren’t used to dealing with, and if that happens, we’ve got an interesting game. MUC QB Kurt Rocco is not immobile necessarily, but he hasn’t had to deal with relentless pressure very often. Wesley’s secondary can probably match up with Mount Union’s receivers better than most, but expect WRs Cecil Shorts and Vince Petruziello to have some success. Wesley’s offensive line will have problems with Joe Millings and the Mount Union pass rush, but that almost plays right into the hands of QB Shane McSweeny, who loves to run and craves contact, and offensive coordinator Chip Knapp, who is clever enough to use the Purple Raiders’ speed against them. I don’t really know how Wesley scores 31 on Mount Union’s defense, but something about 2009 has been so standard that a stunner is due. The Wolverines are confident enough, that if they keep their cool and limit turnovers and penalties, they can restore the belief that a South Region or East Coast team can go through Alliance on the way to Salem.

Pat: Mount Union 27, Wesley 20
Percentage chance Mount Union will win: 57%
First of all, 57% is about 38% less than any other week of the playoffs so far. When people talk about the formula for beating Mount Union, it usually involves getting pressure on the Purple Raider quarterback solely with the front four, and the Wolverines have 46 sacks and 125 tackles for loss. The other key is, like many games, taking care of the ball. Wesley has turned the ball over 27 times in 13 games so far, nine of them in three playoff games, which is not overwhelming. A … well, potentially wise Mount Union fan told me earlier this year that Larry Kehres basically has 12 games every year to figure things out, thinking that even without the offense or defense fully clicking the Purple Raiders can get through two playoff games. In this case, I suspect the five turnovers last week might give people reason to consider they are not clicking 100 percent. I can believe Wesley has the talent to compete in this game, perhaps win it. Where I struggle is believing Wesley won’t be at least a little intimidated and outcoached. Mount Union doesn’t get outcoached often. I don’t see it happening Saturday. If the coaching is even and the Wolverines don’t get intimidated, Wesley wins. And that’s where my 43% is coming from.

No. 5 LINFIELD (12-0) at No. 2 UW-Whitewater (13-0), 1 p.m. EST

Ryan: UW-Whitewater 38, Linfield 17
Percentage chance Whitewater will win: 80%
Does Whitewater have any real weaknesses? The team is exactly where it should be, playing toward the game that it deserves to be in. Few teams boast as balanced of an offense as the Warhawks — and I don’t just mean on the basic passing vs. rushing level. It’s even balanced within the components. The ground game has two very capable backs, and quarterback Jeff Donovan has three potent receivers to keep the field spread out and the defense guessing. To its credit, Linfield is no slouch on either side of the ball either. The Wildcats’ turnover margin is well documented, and 436 yards of offense per game doesn’t just happen by magic. Linfield has momentum on its side, winning big game after big game. But UW-W is possibly the best of the best, and that will count come time to take the field.

Keith: UW-Whitewater 35, Linfield 21
Percentage chance Whitewater will win: 75%
As I mentioned in this week’s podcast, I think Linfield shows up at The Perk feeling like they’re in the same class as UW-Whitewater, that if they play their best game, they can win. And they’ll probably follow the Illinois Wesleyan and Wittenberg formula of going toe-to-toe with the Warhawks for a while. But of the two offensive styles, Linfield’s is the one that seems more susceptible to being disrupted by a good defense or having things spiral out of control on a bad day. Whitewater, with just 12 turnovers in 13 games, and having given up just six sacks, plays a mistake-free, powerful style that wears a team down in the second half. While the Warhawks give up just 2.4 yards per carry and have allowed four rushing TDs all season, even a one-dimensional Linfield is a bet to score some; The Wildcats start eight seniors on offense. On D, where they start three, is the bigger concern. They’ve only held three of 12 opponents below 20 points, while Whitewater’s only given up that many points once, in a game they led 51-7. The Wildcats and Warhawks might play an epic half to match their ’05 clash, but it would take a monumental Linfield effort, especially on defense, to outplay UW-Whitewater over the course of a full game.

Pat: UW-Whitewater 30, Linfield 23
Percentage chance Whitewater will win: 52%
I think Whitewater has better talent, is better coached (though not significantly) and has the home-field advantage and experience this deep in the playoffs. If Whitewater has a weakness, it’s that they haven’t been tested much this season and the Warhawks may not be able to react if challenged late in the game. Yes, last week Wittenberg took Whitewater pretty late in the game, but the Tigers weren’t much of an offensive threat after halftime without their starting quarterback. Assuming Aaron Boehme is playing in the fourth quarter, that won’t be the same. Linfield has made a living in the playoffs taking advantage of opponents’ turnovers, but Whitewater takes care of the ball, with just six interceptions and six lost fumbles all season. Even if they double that average, I’m not sure two turnovers gets the job done.

Some of Mount Union’s best players were in diapers last time there was no December football in Alliance. They’re getting pretty used to packin’ the Perk for regional final football in Wisconsin, too, while Saturday’s other hosts, Linfield and Wesley, are no strangers to deep playoff runs either. It’s the four road teams — Albright, Wittenberg, Johns Hopkins and St. Thomas — who are responsible for most the drama of the playoffs to date. Can the not-favored four pull an upset or two on Saturday? Now that we’re down to just four games, Pat, Ryan and I figured we’d tell you not just what we think Saturday’s outcomes will be, but why we think they’ll end up that way. You might find consensus in more than just the projected winners, as we detail how the favorites might well prove worthy of their status.

— Keith McMillan

Ryan’s take: Mount Union 45, Albright 20
It’s hard not to be impressed with how far Albright has come, but without the offensive line playing its best game of the season, the trail will stop here. Mount Union’s defensive ends — James Herbert and Joe Millings — have each been named the OAC’s top linemen the past two seasons, respectively. Lions quarterback Tanner Kelly, even with his shoulder injury, is having the best season of his career, but he’s also leading what could be construed as an offense that’s too one-dimensional. Kelly’s sacks and scrambles aside, the team has fewer than 1,300 yards on the ground, putting a lot of weight on the receivers. But if those same receivers, accounting for 3,519 yards this year, can put together some big plays, the game could remain close.
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Albright 20
The Lions have been one of the surprises of the first two rounds, and Kelly will likely be sharper and more dangerous than the quarterbacks the Purple Raiders have faced the past couple weeks. But while Albright should be able to score some, the big concern if they’ll be able to slow Mount Union down. You’d have to go back to mid-October to find the last time the Purple Raiders scored less than 55. Kurt Rocco’s passes have been on ropes in the playoffs, Cecil Shorts has been wide open and the offensive line moves as one on MUC’s stretch plays. It’s asking a lot of Brett Gaul, Dave Harig and the Lions’ DBs to try to contain Shorts, Vince Petruziello and A.J. Claycomb without some pressure from the defensive line.
Pat’s take: Mount Union 56, Albright 14
Not sure what else can be said here. Kelly can do just enough at quarterback to be a slight bit dangerous, but giving up 21 points per game translates to a bucketful of points against Mount Union. Who steps up to cover Shorts, and how does Albright account for him out of the backfield as well? This reads like a game that’s not much different than last week’s Mount Union game, except with fewer interceptions.

Ryan’s take: Wesley 38, Johns Hopkins 10
Against Division III opponents this season, Wesley has scored 293 points and given up only 83. And this was done with a defense that didn’t return a lot of starters, especially at linebacker. That crew will pose the biggest challenge to Johns Hopkins’ potent running game shouldered by Andrew Kase. But, as with surprise quarterfinalists Albright, JHU will need a big push from its offensive line, a group that has been among the brightest points of this team. Wesley is quick on offense and defense, and JHU will need enough pass completions to keep the Wolverine defense honest.
Keith’s take: Wesley 35, Johns Hopkins 10
The matchup to watch here will be Kase and the Blue Jays’ offensive line against Mike Ward and the Wesley defensive line. If Hopkins can establish the run, a balanced offense will give it a chance. If the Wolverines flex their muscle up front, and get another turnover-free day from quarterback Shane McSweeny, it will be a long day for the Blue Jays.
Pat’s take: Wesley 28, Johns Hopkins 13
There’s a part of me which wants to believe Johns Hopkins can make this a game, keep it close and make it exciting at the end. But I’m having a hard time reconciling that with reality. Wesley presents a balanced offensive attack unlike Hampden-Sydney’s or Thomas More’s and there’s a reason they’re at the top of this bracket. I’m picturing the elements keeping the score down to this level.

Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 45, Wittenberg 10
While it’s possible to stay competitive with UW-Whitewater for 10 or 20 minutes, there are few teams that can handle what the Warhawks throw at them for the full four quarters. Whitewater has outscored opponents 151-8 coming out of the break, showing that the team can make adjustments that its opponents simply can’t match. Not to sell Wittenberg short, especially as a team that can clamp down on defense, but it will be tough to put up points against Whitewater. The Tigers will need good field position or a defensive touchdown (or two) to make a dent in the scoreboard.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 28, Wittenberg 7
Given the strength of Wittenberg’s defense, I can see the score remaining unexpectedly close for some time. But there are very few teams in Division III that can withstand the pounding of “Pound the Rock” for a full game. Levell Coppage will find some creases in a stout defense in the second half, while the barely-mentioned Warhawks defense, which allowed just 30 rushing yards to the champions of the powerful CCIW last week, will steal some of the spotlight.
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 34, Wittenberg 10
The Warhawks will be the second team in a row to force Wittenberg to give up a season-high in points. This game won’t seem this close. The quarterback Wittenberg missed when playing Wabash while Matt Hudson was injured would have given the Tigers part of the test they will face in Jeff Donovan. As for facing Levell Coppage, well, there may not be much of a test for that in Division III. And certainly not on Wittenberg’s schedule.

Ryan’s take: Linfield 34, St. Thomas 21
It’s hard to pick against a team that can hand Mary Hardin-Baylor such a definitive loss. It’s no secret that Linfield wins games with its offense, easily topping 400 yards in a typical outing. But what makes this team really dangerous is its season’s plus-25 turnover margin, including forcing seven just last week. On the other hand, St. Thomas hits back against opponents by having two rushers who average more than six yards a carry and combine for 19 touchdowns. That, though, will play into the Wildcats’ defensive strengths.
Keith’s take: Linfield 34, St. Thomas 33
This is the only quarterfinal where the favorite won’t be able to physically overpower the visitor. Since both offenses are able to rack up yards and points, opportunities to alter the game with turnovers — Linfield scored on defense three times last week — and on special teams — The Tommies’ Fritz Waldvogel has six punt and kick return scores this year — must be taken advantage of. If Linfield needs a late drive to pull it out, I could see QB Aaron Boehme (2,727 passing yards, 31 TD in 11 games) doing that in front of the Catdome crowd.
Pat’s take: Linfield 30, St. Thomas 21
Linfield won’t be able to force seven St. Thomas turnovers but they’ll get a couple. If they turn them into points, it will give them the edge they need to make sure this isn’t a one-score game in the end. If Tommies quarterback Greg Morse can again slow down the game like he did against Coe last week, this will be a good game. If he can’t get the job done, and Dakota Tracy can’t either, then it’s going to look like Linfield’s game last week.