 Will Linfield take down the top seed next? |
Pat and Keith go game by game through the bracket, with their reactions on each of the 16 first-round games. Upsets? Yeah, maybe not so many, but we still learned a bit and hey, there are going to be blowouts in the first round of any tournament.
Plus, a look forward to next week’s games and Keith’s reactions to the brackets in general.
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Thanks for the great podcast guys. I heard keith say that the game he was at may have been the best game of the day. That maybe true but I think the Wheaton Coe game certainly would have come close to it. As I posted on your facebook page there was multiple lead changes and momentum shifts. I think Coe is a very good team and has nothing to be ashamed of in this game. The difference may have been that Wheaton has had a lot of experience with heart stopping come from behind wins this year. The game with Bethel should be a great game. Wheaton will have a tough challenge defending against a very balanced Bethel attack.
I think Whitewater is being tested in these first 2 match-ups with good passing teams. Quite frankly, I think it’s what the Warhawks need. A good test will have them much more prepared in the next week.
A friendly affair between Bethel and Wheaton??? I see where your coming from but, both these teams have played a close game for the last 2 years and this could be one of the most intense games this weekend. I am looking forward to seeing a great game maybe one of the best match ups of the weekend.
Royalfan: How about “intense, but not hateful?” 🙂
Yes!! another Bethel fan out there; welcome royalfan, I checked out all the defensive and offensive stats for wheaton-Bethel and Wartburg. It seems like Wheaton almost matches Wartbug but is better in more categories. Bethel has a better Defense all around and better rushing attack. Wheaton has a better passing game and makes more field goals, Bethel scores more touchdowns. Bethel has the #1 First down D and the #1 third down D, and allows very few penalties. Should be an awesome game
Hi Royal fans,
Looking forward to you guys coming. I’m loving these playoffs. You’ll forgive my exuberance since it is my first experience with it. Bethel is a quality program and your coach is a good guy as well as a great coach. It will certainly be intense but I would not expect anything less from a second round playoff game.
I agree with the comment above about UWW getting tested with its secondary. I will be at the game Saturday if I can drive down from the Twin Cities on Thursday morning to Madison for T-Giving … if the weather holds up.
I am curious as to the status of the starting QB for UWW going into next Saturday. When did the thumb injury occur.?
I saw the first quarter of UST – Bend. (IL.) last Saturday. My money is still on Linfield given their history/experience in the tournament. UST looked to me rather slow coming off their blocks with their running attack. Their back is over 6 feet and not hard to find. He did not appear to me to have a ton of speed. If Linfield can penetrate in the trenches it will negate this part of UST’s offensive scheme.
Linfield is very physical and a lot like the WIAC schools as they showed last year in the semi’s. They can really hold their own.
I predict a score of 31-21, Linfield over UST next Saturday.
uwsystemfan – it’s interesting to me that you point out UST’s running game as a possible weakness, just days after they had TWO backs get around 150 yards each. The #1 back may be over six feet tall, but I suspect that his height makes it easier to appreciate his 8, 10, and 20 yard runs from the sidelines. He may be big, but so far opposing teams are mostly seeing his back as he goes for 100+ yards a game. Granted, this is a guy with 4000 yards and I simply think it’s uneducated to say that this guy is a weakness. Granted, I’m not sure UST will pull it out, as their slow-start mentality is troubling, but this would be the weakness, not the running game. I’d take a skillfull, physical, large back any day. If the avoid getting in a hole, they DO have the skill to beat Linfield. I hope that last year’s experience will play to their favor by putting a chip on their shoulders rather than making them nervous.
Blanchard hurt his thumb at the tail end of the UWL game. they will monitor him during this week of practice and make a game-time decision I’m guessing. With the way Brekke played, either QB SHOULD be able to win this game on Saturday.
I like the idea of the league champions get an automatic berth into the playoffs, but it seems to be less clear over who else deserves to go. Two primary questions relative to this are : should a) two loss teams and/or b) second place teams in a league go to the playoffs?
First — the two loss teams should not advance unless they win their league. Period.
This year, of the ten two loss teams — 9 champions and one second place team (Salisbury from a 4 team league) — only two made it to the second round (for those who are playing along at home… this is only 20%). Of the two that did advance, one beat another two loss team (Delaware Vlly over Salisbury) and one crushed a weak league (Alfred 60-0 over SUNY Maritime).
Second – So if you come in second, do you really deserve to go?
Of those that were second place teams — 4 of 7 advanced (57%). Six of these teams had one loss records and one (Salisbury) had two losses (…and the latter didn’t advance). None of the 3 or 4 loss teams advanced (all were champions of their conference).
Reasonable conclusion….second place teams with only one loss (likely to a playoff team) should be considered, as they tend to do well more than half the time (… horribly small sample size of just this year…sorry). However, two loss teams, regardless of their place in the conference standings tend to suck. At the very least, second place two loss teams should be kept out.
So if this is the case, why did we leave Redlands (8-1) and Pacific Lutheran (9-1) and Rowan (9-1) (each only loss was to a playoff team) out of the playoffs when we took Salisbury (7-2)?
Looking at point differentials might have been a clue : the point differentials for the non-champions : Ohio Northern (243), Salisbury (223), Bethel (211), Coe (198), Wheaton (194), Montclair St (181), Hamden-Sydney (131). Note that Redlands (131), Rowan (115), and Pacific Lutheran (87).
Is point differentials a good method? Some would argue higher point differentials mean your offense is good. Others might argue your competition is weak. In theory, this is where strength of schedule comes in. But even this argument leaves some doubt, as on the west coast, the primary competition due to travel distances is between two leagues (SCIAC and NWC). While east of the Mississippi, teams have many more options.
So, my points :
Two loss teams should never make the playoffs. Obvious flaws.
Just as an extra….it looked to me like the committee did a good job…..except Redlands got screwed.
FWIW — I went to Case, not Redlands.
Keith or Pat, I’m having a hard time finding your break down that you posted last week about each of the 32 teams. As the teams move on, I think it’s interesting to go back and look what each opponent is up against.
Quote of the podcast.
Pat: “I have never been a bride…” Classic line, and for your sake Pat, I hope that streak continues!
@warhawkpride, took me a while to find too, and I work here. Found them linked out of ATN. Switch brackets by the links at the top after you’re done with the Wesley one.
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2010/bracket-wsly