55 thoughts on “Triple-take: Stagg Bowl predictions”

1. Well that’s interesting, although if one of the clearly-defined sides is right, we might not have an interesting game.

   On one hand, five of us — four from D3football.com, and Ric — have it in the Mount Union 31-38, Whitewater 17-21 range. Tom and Matt picked Whitewater by the same score.

   We did not discuss beforehand, so interesting that we all see it the same way, for the most part.

   Whitewater was in both Stagg Bowls at the half, and quite frankly left some opportunities out on the field. In both seasons, Mount Union made the backbreaking play in the third … the long run by Kmic in ’05 and the punt block by Kostelnik, returned by Rees in ’06.

   The two games weren’t the same, but UWW scored first in each and it was not blown off the field. I don’t think anyone sees them getting blown away this time either, but it’s going to be really difficult to dictate the tempo over the course of a full game to a team that talented. If Whitewater wins, I think it will be because they earned it over the course of a physical game in which early on, they made it so Mount Union was worrying about how it was going to contend with Whitewater instead of the other way around.

   I don’t think the ’03-’04 Mount Union teams that lost had nearly the caliber of skill-position players that the current team has, which is why I personally don’t think those comparisons fly. It’s certainly a good storyline for those who want to believe, but Mount Union’s got a great QB, RB and WR and good complimentary players, plus an O-Line with seniors all up and down it. The defense has fewer stars and is mostly solid all-around, maybe Whitewater, which also has an experienced line, can establish Beaver over the course of the game. Maybe some creative play calls will generate some points.

   If UW-W wins, they will defintely have earned it, most likely in a grind, by playing great defense with sure tackling, and by bulling the Purple Raiders on offense.

   Of course, I’ve been completely wrong once or twice before … 🙂

2. Ric,
   I hole heartedly agree w/ you. I think that the weather will affect UWW more than Mt, and here’s why. UWW is going to have to do something that’s “out of the box” for them in order to win. Using their QB’s running skills more to put pressure on the dbs, getting the ball down field to stretch the defense. I don’t know but I think we all agree, even as great as Beaver is and the size of the line, they are not going to establish the run consistantly enough to win. So, when your in the situation that they are you need all the planets to align perfectly which includes satisfactory weather. The UWW posters are going to tell me that UWW has played in horrible weather throughout the playoffs and won. My response is “they weren’t playing MT Union.” UWW’s normal game plan was sufficient to beat Wabash and UMHB. Being the third game w/Mount (for the walnut and bronze), I think the UWW coach is going to throw caution to the wind and I would expect to see some “trickeration. ” There’s no question, Mount will have to be on their toes the whole game. In a championship game (as Mount has already proved), you are only one play, or special teams mishap away from victory or defeat.

3. you all bring up very valid points with your “take” on the game. The common thread I have seen in all the Mount Union games this year is the Raiders ability to break the spirit of the opponent by jumping out to an early lead, thereby ruining their game plan. In order to try to keep up, they abandon a balanced offensive scheme, try riskier play calling, and put themselves in such a hole that it is too deep to climb out.

   Bethel tried to stay with the run, which was admirable, but they just couldn’t sustain a drive and couldn’t keep Mount from scoring.

   The key will be as you said Keith………..keep Mount in check early which will develop confidence and keep the running game in play. That would keep Mount’s offense off the field and limit their opportunities. Every opponent Mount has faces of course tries this game plan but none have been successful.

   I also agree that the weather will play a big role in the game if it is nasty. If the ball is slippery, throwing will be not easy, handoffs will be interesting, and the footing (even on field turf) will be slick. At that point, it would be a matter of muscle and tenacity. Scoring will be more at a premium and special teams will play a greater role. Mount hasn’t punted alot and when they have, it hasn’t been the strength of their team.

   I wish the best to both teams.

   Mount 35 UWW 17

4. Remember the game against St. John’s? Everyone thought Mt. Union was a lock. And look what happened. Actually, why did Mt. Union lose? Well, my wife bought us both Mount Union long sleeve shirts to wear during the game. Mount lost! Well, next time we didn’t wear the shirts. And Mount won. Same last year, too.

   Do you think we’re wearing the shirts tomorrow? Nah!

   Go Purple Raiders!
   John H. MUC (NOT MTU as ESPN insists!) ’84

5. I completely agree that when UWW won in the terrible weather it was not against teams like MUC however, I do believe that the only way to win is to stick to your normal game plan. Many of the MUC have only heard of Danny Jones but when you see him and his mobility you will understand why he will be a huge factor in the game. The cold and wet weather plays right into his hands with the ability to keep the linebackers and secondary on their heels.

   This will be a close game if the weather ends up like everyone is saying. UWW is a physical team, physical beyond what MUC has seen this year and even the last two years in the Stagg. MUC has practiced for four quarters but I still have my doubts about their ability to will it out like UWW has shown they can.

   There has been debate over which UWW team was the best in that past three years. They have all had their advantages, in no way will I say we are better off without Kleppe, Jacobs, Stanley or Schmidt but this team has found a way to scrap it out when everyone thought they would roll over. The will to keep going though coaching changes and player changes has made this group different.

   I can’t wait to get on that bus tonight for another 14 hour trip to Virginia for another year and another great game.

   Everyone has been talking about the MUc offense but I think the weather gets bad and the defenses prevail. One big play will change this one too, I can only hope that it is made on the Warhawk side of the ball.

   UWW 21 MUC 17

6. K-Mack,

   I’m not comparing how good Mount Union is this season to ’03 and ’04. I simply used those playoff loss examples to show that, as favored as MUC is in just about every game they play, they are beatable (and SJU and MHB showed how).

   I wasn’t trying to use ’03 and ’04 as a storyline or spin because I wanted to pick UWW. I was trying to spell out (in so many words) a recipe for if the Warhawks are to beat Mighty Mount. And I think it’ll happen.

   Sorry that I didn’t pick the Purple Raiders in the 31-38 to 17-21 range. Plus, I couldn’t leave my fellow fan site publisher Tom alone. 🙂

   Hope to see some of you all tonight! Definitely tomorrow!

7. weather again? game time if the experts are right expect about 33-34 degrees and rain turning to ice. who does this favor? not sure what the weather was like for MUC playoff games but all 4 games for UWW pretty much dealt with weather like this. does this make them the favorite? coming from a UWW fan i hope. but i realize that MUC is a great team. either way hoping for a great game and a warhawk win ———– weather related score UWW 17 MUC 13( crosses fingers) 🙂

8. warhawktrumpet,
   Ask Bethel and SJF what happens when you “stick to what got you here” mentality. At Mount Union you have arguably the best coaches in DIII studying what got you here and your tendencies. Good luck! If your coaches fall into that trap, it will definately be a sad trip home.

9. I just have a hard time believing a team that relies on is ground attack as much as UWW does has a chance against mount. If they cant throw downfield it’s gonna get ugly quickly. I know their quarterback is also a big part of their ground attack. I’ve also seen many mobile quartebacks against the MU defense, and most of the running they do is for their life. They usually dont last 4 quarters against Mount.

   MUC 38 UWW 10

10. I know people are gonna say the MU defense has never had to stop a running back as good as Beaver. I would disagree with that. I’m certain facing Nate Kmic in practice everday also makes them that much better at stopping the run.

11. No. Name Att. Yds. Avg. TDs Long
    32 Justin Beaver 413 2206 5.3 14 74
    36 Nate Kmic 244 1579 6.5 35 70

12. R24aider-

    Bethel and SJF didn’t have the defenses to be able to stick to their game plan and win. I wont want UWW to stick to their plan if they are down 41-0 at half but I don’t think that will happen.

    9isfine-

    What makes you think that UWW can’t strech the field. They don’t have a reciever like Stanley but we have our own #1 and he is a fighter. Neil can find holes and strech the field, especially if Danny Jones is scrambling. The other mobile QB’s you have seen don’t have the line or the weapons that UWW has. We all know Kmic is good, I have been there the last two years. A healthy Justin Beaver will run him over. I’m not saying Kmic doesn’t make plays I just don’t think he has the strength that Beaver does.

13. warhawktrumpet,
    “A healthy Justin Beaver will run him over” Huh? Other than Beaver is a year older, that’s the only strength differance. Next year, all of J. Beavers records will be a distant memory. If LK lets him, Kmic could break Bowers record for a career.

14. How is Justin Beaver going to run Nate Kmic over? I doubt they will be on the field at the same time.

15. I would take Kmic any day of the week. Kmic played the 1st half of….well…..pretty much every game. He would dust any record of Beaver’s had he played more. I dont want to argue who has the better running back. Although I think mount does. I will say defensively you will never see the likes of this MUC team again. It is truly unbelievable how the can dominate any offensive unit in the country in DIII

16. I am not one who thinks MTU is going to blow out UWW this year. I think that this will be the closest wins for MTU vs UWW in the Stagg Bowl.

    My prediction:

    MTU 24
    UWW 17

17. Could Kmic play every quarter? Have any proof? I know they wont be on the field at the same time! Beaver missed 5 or more games last year, he only played two games in the playoffs, I would say he is a bit healthier this year.

18. Don’t say any offensive unit until you shut down at least one more. I’m not sayng UWW is going to put up huge points but don’t count them out before the game starts

19. Beaver wouldn’t have won the Gagliardi if he wasn’t deserving but Kmic is every bit as good on the field. I can’t be positive but I would bet that Kmic NEVER played the fourth quarter of any game this year. With a better than 6 yard average per carry, he would have easily gained over 2,500 yards if given the same amount of carries as Beaver.

    This whole “Beaver would run over Kmic” makes for a few laughs but I’m sure you weren’t serious. We all think our hometown guys are the best but the facts just don’t bear it out. Furthermore, the UWW offense is centered around Beaver whereas Kmic is just one of many weapons that MUC has at it’s disposal.

    If MUC’s first team offense had played all four quarters of every game, I think the records set would never be broken in DIII.

    That being said, there are still four more quarters to play. Let’s hope that both first teams have to play all four of those quarters.

    Roll it out!!!!

20. Yes Kmic can play 4 quarters. He just doesnt need to. Dont you remember the 111 yards he put up on UWW in 2006 or the 185 in 2005? I would think you would remember that.

21. I don’t think anyone is counting out UWW before the game starts. On the contrary, I believe everyone expects a hard fought contest. Just need to be realistic in your assessments and evaluations.

    Need to separate fact from opinion.

22. Kmic vs. SJFU the past two years:

    2006:
    42 carries for 371 yards. He had 16 carries for 114 yards in the fourth quarter.

    2007:
    20 carries for 199 yards. He had one carry in the fourth quarter for 30 yds.

    This was in the Nat’l Semifinals.

    The Fourth Quarter in 2006 was ALL Kmic for MTU on O. They ran 16 straight times to Kmic on two drives.

    I am not taking anything away from Beaver, I think he is a tremendous back and most deserving of the award (I can never remember how to spell it) but I do agree that if Kmic had as many carries as Beaver, Kmic would rewrite all the record books. I also understand that the level of competition (top to bottom) is not the same in the OAC vs. the WIAC, but Kmic didn’t even play much until late in the season and he had 1200+ yards.

23. I don’t think Beaver would literally run him over I was just saying I think Beaver is a stronger runner than Kmic, not better, just stronger. Yes I remember what Kmic did to us in ’05 and ’06, I don’t want to but, I do.

24. Meant to say in 2005 he had 1200+ yards his Ff. year.

25. Just a few things before I depart for Salem!
    First thing, if you think Whitewater offense revolves just around Beaver you’re wrong. A couple of times this year he just hasn’t had any holes, therefore he wasn’t succesful and Whitewater still pulled through with their passing game. They are not one dimentional, no team that makes it to a championship game can be.
    I plan on heading over to Stone Station tommorow, and don’t be suprised by how young I am. I was attempting to build up a respectable reputation around here before you found out that I am still a junior in high school. I’m covering the game just like last year for our high school paper.
    One of my friends might have put it best a couple of days ago.
    “They might win or they might lose”
    -on Whitewater’s chance at pulling off the upset tommorow.
    With that in mind I would like to part with my prediction 23-20 WW. Good luck to both teams tommorow and hopefully everyone has safe travels.

26. I’ve been reading this thread over the past day and have to say I’m a little surprised with some for the comparisons. Mind you I do not mean this as an attack on anyone.

    The first thing I want to say is that comparing stats between OAC and WIAC doesn’t make sense because its two different sets of teams. If both backs had an average of 5.0 ypc it still wouldn’t be equal. Those kind of statistics (along with national rankings) are only really relevant among teams of within the same conference.

    Second, keep in mind that in 2005, Texas was supposed to be schooled by USC and last eyer, Ohio State was supposed to give Florida a pounding. At this point, records, rankings, and statistcs can all be thrown out the window.

    Third, I don’t believe the wet weather will favor eith team. Mount is from Ohio and UWW is from Wisconsin. Both have crappy winter weather and both should know how to play in it. It’s hard to give either team an advantage in slop.

    I believe this SHOULD be a pretty close game and I’m looking forward to it. My prediction is it will be something along the lines of 24-17, but no real prediction on who will be on top. Let’s just hope for a good game and that everyone is able to walk off the field on their own at the end.

27. warhawktrumpet,

    You talk about the other opponents Mount has played this year not having as mobile of a quarterback or as good a offensive line. The one common opponent they do have is Capital. Yes, you beat them in the playoffs, but they gave you a decent game until mid 3rd quarter. That Capital was not the same team that Mount played in the middle of the season. Capital was healthy and had all their key players and Mount shut them out. When Capital played UWW several key players including their quarterback were out and they still put points on the board and held your team in check until the 3rd quarter.

    Like I said in a earlier post, I think UWW is definitely a knotch above any of the competition Mount has played this year. I also said I think UWW will find it hard to score being as one dimensional as they are. I do expect to see some mis-direction and trick plays from UWW to try and take advantage of Mounts aggressive D. For UWW to win this game it will have to be extremely low scorng like 10-7 or they come up with several big game changing plays.

    In the end I see Mounts offense being more diverse than what UWW has seen this year and I think Mount wins by 2 or 3 scores.

28. Speaking of records- How can you allow 5 playoff games count towards records? Where’s the fairness in that?

29. The problem with Capital though is that they’re in the same conference as Mount. It’s too bad both teams didn’t play a common opponent from either conference. That would have been a whole lot more telling.

30. I really don’t think you can categorize UWW as a one dimensional team. They do have a good passing game it just isn’t “big play” like previous years. To be fair that is the first time we have played Capital and I think the game would be further apart if we played again (even if they are healthy).

31. I hate how we have the same stupid arguments every year, including Beaver and Kmic. Everyone has a different point of view and everyone wants to cheer for their own guy. I could rebutt the arguments the the Raiders fans had for Kmic and then the Raiders fans would rebutt the arguments I make for Beaver. Who cares. Just enjoy the fact that there are two great running backs on the field with a ton of potential in the future. Who knows, wouldn’t it be nice to see both of them playing against each other on a Sunday instead of a Saturday?

    yellowjack98…I was actually thinking the same thing just a bit ago. I mean, it helps Beaver and Kmic both, obviously. If you think about it, the individual rushing record really isn’t individual if your TEAM makes the playoffs and goes deep into the playoffs.

    By the way Gordon, when Hardin-Baylor stacked the box with literally 9 guys (eve when UW-W went 3 and 4 wide), any D3 back would have gotten shut down.

32. Turn overs! Who ever makes the least will likely win this close struggle. Wet weather will cause this to be closer than most think. Turn overs will be the key esp. in this game.

33. ditto

34. Hey, if you want some ideas for signs for the game, here are ones I used in 2005 when I was at the Stagg Bowl. Since I’ll be in Ohio this year, thought I’d give you these for a chance to get on ESPN.

    On one side of the posterboard, I put ‘UW-Who?’. When I turned it over, it said ‘I hate cheese.’

    Good luck to both teams … but GO PURPLE RAIDERS!

35. If Mount will keep the penalties down and bring the intensity on defense early, I like our chances quite bit…In the last two Staggs, I have felt like the Mount D wasnt ready at the opening whistle…they eased in and made plays yes…but this year’s game demands that they throw the hammer down early and never let up…for all those seniors on D, there is no tomorrow…why not lay it all on the line, play after play, until its over…just like they’ve done all year…if they do that, Mount fans will have a lot to cheer about…I look for Pat M. and Matt K to seriously bring it…

    The Mount O will do what they have done all year which is utilize their weapons and go with the one ( or more) that is available to them…this is where I love Larry Kehres because he will find a way to make his players effective…I feel like Greg Micheli has really come into his own…I would not be surprised if he has a huge day…look for Wray and the TE to be big keys to the offense early…and when in doubt, pound the rock with Kmic…his quickness may be somewhat hampered depending on field conditions, but the Raiders need to “dance with the one that brung ’em” 🙂

    This Raider team has been a joy to watch and follow all year….Jones and Beaver are good players, great even…I just dont feel they are enough to overcome a better overall team…Im looking forward to a slug fest…

    MUC 35 UWW 17

36. and warhawk trumpet…I can take quite a bit ot trash talk but Id find a better Raider weakness to talk smack on….Kmic isnt it….if weather is a factor, making passing difficult, Larry K will line up the O line, and run Kmic (maybe others too….you never know) play after play….the Raiders have been determined to run the football and tomorrow will be no exception…

37. The Stagg Bowl and Mt. Union just got a bit of a shout-out on ESPN this afternoon. Bob Ryan used his “Face Time” on Around the Horn to explain why MUC was the most dominant sports team in America. He even went on to make a bit of a prediction, saying that the “unfortunate loser” would be UWW once again.

    I wish I could be making the trip to Salem again this year, but sadly other commitments will keep me in Wisconsin. Can’t even watch it on TV, for cryin’ out loud! Oh well, here’s hoping for a great game.

    I see UWW as an extremely strong team that could easily win the National Championship any given year. That is, if they were playing anybody besides MUC. I see MUC as a stronger team that will prevail on Saturday. I’m hoping for an upset, but I’m not expecting it.

38. May the best team win….and then when it’s over, maybe with some luck next year someone will knock MUC off. As I have stated before, there’s D-3 and then there’s MUC. Alot of talented teams teams in D-3, but there is a cavernous void in between MUC and the next best D-3 team. I wish I knew their secret. I saw their running back go 80 something yards for a TD and the 2 closest players behind him were 300+ pound offensive linemen. This is an unbeatable team.

39. Both teams have done an outstanding job this year. I’m looking forward to this game and wish all the players best of luck. Especially to U dub dub, go warhawks!!! Remember the brave fans that braved the cold weather and body painted to show their dedication to your excellence!

40. MUC (aka OSU practice squad) 37, UW-W 17

41. Hope to see many of you in Salem. I’m planning to meetup with Stone Station in the parking lot before the snow hits. Looking forward to seeing the new Field turf at salem stadium. Haven’t really rehearsed, but I might sing & play and have CDs & cassettes for sale real cheap. Also looking forward to good food, fellowship, and most of all, good football. MP’s pick: MUC 34 UWW 21.

42. As we all know, Prince is a MUC fan. To paraphrase a song from his big hit movie: “Purple Raider, Purple Raider”.

43. I haven’t seen MUC play this year, but I would agree with your assessment Statesmen….not too far from the truth lg.

    I know the MUC has a ton of pride in its D, but it’s the O that I think gives them an advantage in this matchup. WW can’t win a track meet.

    I don’t agree with the logic about the weather favoring MUC. I actually think this will favor WW. The reason I say that is if the weather causes the teams to struggle to throw the ball, that’s more of a disadvantage to MUC than WW. I know the old addage about the D not knowing where they are going, but I presume that’s less of an issue on the turf (i’ve only played on grass). I think it’s more about the QB’s being able to get the ball where they need to, and tougher to pick up blitzes.

    I know Kimic is the focus, but I think containing Garcon in the key. Kimic’s going to get his yards and score. That O line is too good for him not to. It doesn’t seem the MUC faithful feels Garcon is their best player, but he’s the guy that has impressed me the most in the last 2 championship games. This is not to take anything away from the other great players they have. I think Garcon is a difference maker. If the weather helps slow him down, and WW can contain his big plays, advantage WW.

    I think the only way this hurts WW is from a turnover perspective. Their D has lived off of pics. However, MUC is well coached and I wasn’t expecting WW to be able to get the turnovers like they have during the playoffs. This is why limiting MUC’s big plays on O is so critical. While I think Kimic will get his yards, if the weather is bad;MUC struggles to throw; I do think WW can get stops by focusing on the MUC run game.

    WW is very patient on offense. I know all about the MUC D and its stats. WW has faced some excellent defenses and knows how to be patient, smart, and efficient. They are not going to be frustrated by anything thrown at them.

    I have seen my Hawks play a few times this year. Make no bones about it. They are not 1 dimensional.

    In any event, what do I know. If I knew anything, I’d be coaching instead of a has been.

    I’ve been predicting upset this week. With the weather, I’m changing my prediction from 28-24 WW to 31-24 WW.

    GO HAWKS!!

44. The problem with debating MUC fans is that they have too much logic on their side. The stats don’t lie, nor does the previous games. Kmic doesn’t carry the ball as much as Beaver, if he did, my guess is he’d have a boat load of yards-and an unthinkable number of touchdowns.
    I don’t think UWW will win because Beaver is better than Kmic. UWW will have a chance to win if many, many things go in their favor, like turnovers, penalties, sloppy passing, kids making plays and over confidence by MUC. There is just too much fact to argue UWW beating MUC without UWW kids playing the game of their lives.

45. My “prediction” is MUC 38, UWW 21.

    I have never been a Danny Jones fan. To me, he has been somewhat inconsistent throughout the regular season. I thought UWW had a better chance last year with last year’s starting QB. Having said that, he has pretty well in the payoffs and was critical in the last win against UMHB.

    A lower score benefits UWW but can they stop the MUC offense? And can the defense avoid some of the silly personal fouls that they get on 3rd down stops?

    It is the their third try at the final game and I do NOT see another trip to the finals in the next few years as the team is senior laden.

46. Nice post Krackem, very well stated. I also agree about Garcon, he was the killer the last two years.

47. http://www.sportsradio1400.com/main.html I’ll be on Western Wisconsin Sports Saturday talking Stagg Bowl in a few minutes, if you want to listen in.

48. My sincere thanks to the D3football.com team for another fantastic season of insightful coverage of the best college football has to offer. You guys do a remarkable job reporting on the games, sharing special interest stories and most importantly, reminding us that while Division III football is played with the same intensity and passion as Division I, its played by STUDENT athletes who recognize that there is life after football.

    As for today’s Stagg Bowl, as much as I hope otherwise, I predict MUC in a “monkeystomp” (3+ touchdown victory).

49. 34-10 Purple Raiders

50. UWW 27
    Mount Union 24

    A defensive touchdown by UWW will prove to be the difference.