There are just two games left, so it’s time to go into some of the thought process we use to predict these scores. Remember, Triple-Take is the weekly playoff score prediction blog from the people who live and breathe D3football.com: Publisher Pat Coleman, Around the Nation columnist Keith McMillan and Deputy Managing Editor Gordon Mann.
Last week’s results, with Gordon going 4-for-4, Pat going 3-for-4 and Keith going 2-for-4.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Wesley 10. Gordon’s pick of Mary Hardin-Baylor 28-20 was the closest.
Bethel 27, Central 13. Gordon’s pick was the closest, as the only one to pick Bethel. (Guess he knew it would snow.)
UW-Whitewater 47, Wabash 7. Keith’s pick of 44-21 was the closest.
Mount Union 52, St. John Fisher 10. Pat’s pick of 40-17 was the closest.
On to the games!
Mary Hardin-Baylor (13-1) at UW-Whitewater (13-1)
Pat’s take: I really want to take Mary Hardin-Baylor and shock the world but I don’t know that they have enough offensive diversity to get it done. The year they made that run into December, remember, they did it on turf when the weather was bad. They played at Washington and Jefferson in the quarterfinals and Mount Union in the semis, and though it was cold, the field was consistent. They won’t see that this weekend and that’s the deciding factor in my mind. If they take better care of the ball and stick to their game plan they will win. However, Whitewater has a way of getting the ball back and they will here.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 21.
Keith’s take: I have a real strong feeling that the other semifinal will be won and lost in the trenches. We can be certain that Mary Hardin-Baylor will be more careful with the ball in the early going this time around after turnovers got them in trouble early during October’s 41-14 loss at UW-Whitewater. If UMHB’s defensive line keeps blocks off Jerrell Freeman and Eric Henri, the Crusaders are good enough defensively to keep it close. And that’s where Mary Hardin-Baylor is effective, not so much jumping on teams, but wearing them down. Both teams will try to establish the run, but look for UMHB to be more conservative while the Warhawks are opening things up as they gain confidence in Danny Jones weekly. The Crusaders definitely have a chance here, but the smart pick is the Warhawks.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 24.
Gordon’s take: There has been a lot of focus on how Mary Hardin-Baylor committed five turnovers against UW-Whitewater earlier this year, leading to 24 Warhawk points. That could certainly be an aberration for the Crusaders who only had about 1.5 turnovers per game in all their other contests. But it’s not an aberration for the Warhawks who have forced 48 turnovers this season, including 14 in the playoffs. Even if Mary Hardin-Baylor doesn’t give up the ball, can they sustain a drive against Warhawks? In two games the Crusaders have had 27 offensive series against the Warhawks. They have had one drive that went more than 50 yards. They have had 15 that 10 or less, including a handful where they went backwards. UW-Whitewater has a balanced enough offense and aggressive enough defense that they will put points on the board. Can the Crusaders do the same?
UW-Whitewater 28 Mary Hardin Baylor 14.
Bethel (13-1) at Mount Union (14-0)
Pat’s take: This isn’t a place to take dumb chances. It’s a place to take smart ones, like sticking with your running game down by two scores in the fourth quarter, or going for the end zone with a running back on a swing pass rather than kick a field goal to close the half. It’s not a place to go for it on fourth down from your own 25. It’s not a place to be at less than 100% health. If, and only if, Bethel can control the ball for 40 minutes, like it did at Central, or like Augustana did at Mount Union in 1999, this will be a competitive game. But while I expect Mount Union to score quickly, I don’t expect Bethel to be able to do it every time down the floor. Wait, sorry, field.
Mount Union 48, Bethel 20.
Keith’s take: Bethel seems to be built to grind, so if it can do a couple of things well early, we’ll have an interesting semifinal. They have got to either jump on Mount Union first or limit the Purple Raiders’ start, perhaps by forcing field goal attempts on early drives instead of giving up touchdowns. To stay competitive early, as Mount Union’s last two opponents have failed to do, they have to finish tackles, especially the first guy who gets to Nate Kmic. The Purple Raiders lost their last meeting with a MIAC champion, back in 2003’s Stagg Bowl, which might provide the Royals a reason to believe they won’t be blown off the field. Bottom line, if Bethel can turn it into a grind, they have a chance. Mount Union’s been too diverse offensively and too stout defensively for everyone else though, so I’ll go:
Mount Union 41, Bethel 13.
Gordon’s take: Mount Union hasn’t played anyone close enough this year to give us a good sense what its weakness is, if any, but the Ithaca game might be the best indication. The Bombers scored 18 points by throwing the ball for 324 yards. The only other team to score more than one touchdown against the Purple Raiders was Otterbein, who had two passing touchdowns. That’s not to say Mount Union is vulnerable against the pass, but you need a good passing attack to have any hope against this juggernaut. If you can move the ball in the air…if you don’t commit turnovers…if you don’t give up 20+ yard gains to Nate Kmic…if pigs fly…maybe you can beat the Purple Raiders. The Royals’ offense is primarily a rushing one and their 167.3 passing yards per game ranks second last in the MIAC, ahead of only Hamline. Not a good sign. Nor is the fact that quarterback Ben Wetzell is banged up from last week’s game at Central. Plus I can’t shake the feeling that Bethel will battle “just happy to be here” feelings of their own, after a long road trip to a prohibitive favorite during the deepest playoff run in Royals history. All that adds up to a lopsided affair in Alliance.
Mount Union 42 Bethel 7.