We’ve predicted every playoff game this season and every Stagg Bowl since 1999. With the championship of the 2007 season upon us we expend our pool of predictors to include people with connections to each team and to the Stagg Bowl, as well as the rest of our Salem broadcast crew.
Last year we predicted Mount Union would win, which is a lot like predicting the sun will come up — admittedly, it’s a safe bet. Ric Brienza, Mount Union broadcaster and publisher of mtunionfootball.com, was our “champion” with a 34-27 prediction in favor of the Purple Raiders.
Previous years’ picks: 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006
He leads off our Triple-take take.
Ric Brienza, publisher, Mtunionfootball.com
The key for both teams will be to limit mistakes and finish drives, especially in bad weather conditions. Mount Union has done that better in each of the last two championship games and that’s a big reason they won both. It looks like weather will unfortunately play a factor in the game. If it isn’t miserable conditions that limit 90% of each team’s offense the Purple Raiders pull away for a comfortable victory. If the weather is really bad, it will be a one touchdown or closer game.
Mount Union 38, Whitewater 17
Pat Coleman, publisher, D3football.com
UW-Whitewater has something it didn’t have the past two years, in a mobile quarterback. It has a healthy Justin Beaver. It lacks the big threat at tight end and the fast guy on the outside. But then again, Whitewater didn’t try to stretch the field too much in 2005 and 2006. The play-caller has changed, the signal-caller has changed and the ground game is just as reliable. But the real change is on defense, where it does seem the Warhawks are better than last year. The secondary will need to continue its ball-hawking, the front four will have to apply the pressure and the linebackers are big, fast, and can make plays. However, I’m not sure that’s enough against this Mount Union team. If the weather is truly awful, knock seven off each side.
Mount Union 35, UW-Whitewater 21
Keith McMillan, D3football.com
For UW-Whitewater to make its third time the charm, it’ll have to figure out how to impose its will on Mount Union. That means dictating the tempo with long drives offensively, and tackling well on defense so the Warhawks can get off the field on three-and-outs. Big names aside, line play and tackling will be keys Saturday — the Purple Raiders just happen to feature one of the most difficult-to-tackle foursomes we’ve seen in Pierre Garcon, Nate Kmic, Justin Wray and Greg Micheli. The Warhawks counter with studs at defensive end and linebacker and a senior-laden secondary. UW-Whitewater can pull the upset — QB Danny Jones, or a scheme from coach Lance Leipold might make Stagg Bowl XXXV different than the past two, but with a Mount Union team with so few weaknesses and one that is so rarely unprepared, I fear we’re in for more of the same.
Mount Union 33, UW-Whitewater 20
Gordon Mann, D3football.com
If Division III football were a different animal, there would be more talk about whether this year’s Mount Union team is one of the best Division III teams of all time. With little video evidence and most Division III fans appropriate focused mainly on their own team, that’s a tough discussion to have. Of course, that discussion doesn’t happen at all unless Mount Union defeats UW-Whitewater tomorrow. And so they will. Justin Beaver is a great running back and an inspirational story, but he was held in check by Mary Hardin-Baylor last week. The Crusaders have a great run defense, allowing just 48.7 yards per game. That’s second in the country to Mount Union who has halved the total to an unreal 24.2 yards per game. The task of keeping pace with the Purple Juggernaut’s offense falls on Danny Jones and the UWW passing game. Jones is a lot of fun to watch, fleet-footed and cannon-armed. But he needs his receivers to get open and make big plays. Outside of Neil Mrkvicka, can anyone else get free from the vise-lock defense of Matt Kostelnik, Jonah Wilson and company? It’s been a great season for the Warhawks in which they have achieved excellence while changing their quarterback, offensive coordinator and head coach. Unfortunately for them, this much remains the same.
Mount Union 35, UW-Whitewater 17
Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
The Warhawks come into this year’s Stagg Bowl with a different attitude. Not the pressure of the past two years. Senior leadership is the difference in this year’s team. Hawks will also ride the wave of emotion after watching teammate Justin Beaver accept the Gagliardi Trophy. Third time’s the charm.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 24
John McGraw, D3football.com
Since this is the third installment of Mount Union vs. UW-Whitewater, who’s Rocky Balboa and who’s Clubber Lang? Somehow I don’t see either Justin Beaver or Nate Kmic shouting out “Yo, Adrian!” after the game. That being said, I admit I picked Whitewater last year and that didn’t turn out too well. The Purple Raiders have bludgeoned everyone they’ve played this year and I think that continues in Salem. UW-Whitewater and Justin Beaver will put up a fight, but Mount’s too much in the end.
Mount Union 31, UW-Whitewater 17
Ryan Tipps, D3football.com
It’s hard to say something that hasn’t been said in some format at least once before. And the even harder part is being on the outside looking in on whatever trick Coach Kehres has up his sleeve for the Stagg Bowl (a la Greg Micheli in ’06). We all know what makes Mount Union good: practically everything. But looking at the opponent, I like that UW-Whitewater has a bigger and more mobile offensive line than the Purple Raiders are used to facing. I like that UW-W has played in snow and ice already this year (have you seen Salem’s forecast?). And I like that UW-W has a new and dynamic crop of playmakers and coaches that will try to jazz things up. No, this will definitely not be played like the Stagg Bowls of 2005 and ’06. Though that doesn’t mean we’ll see a drastically different result. Mount’s just that good.
Mount Union 38, UW-Whitewater 20
Matt Barnhart, Bridgewaterfootball.com/Stone Station
Entering both the St. John’s game (’03) and Mary Hardin-Baylor game (’04), the Purple Raiders looked unstoppable, allowing only 6.5 and 8.7 points to their opponents, respectively. This year is no different, with only 10 touchdowns being scored against MUC. But as in 2003 and 2004, playoff opponents found a way to beat The Machine. They did it by sticking to the run, and forcing MUC to throw. SJU and MHB combined for 116 rushes for 555 yards. They also combined to hold the Raiders to only 211 rushing yards — on 69 carries — and 25-of-57 passing with five interceptions. That’s not what Mount Union wants to do. This season, UW-Whitewater has nearly rushed (679) exactly twice as much as they have thrown (340). The Warhawk defensive line — a six-man rotation — has combined for 50.5 tackles for a loss and 35 sacks this year. It’s also worth noting that UWW has forced 49 turnovers this year — second best in Division III. If they can stop the run, and the Gagliardi winner carries the ball 35 to 40 times, I like UWW in a close one.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 24