There are just two games left, so it’s time to go into some of the thought process we use to predict these scores. Remember, Triple-Take is the weekly playoff score prediction blog from the people who live and breathe D3football.com: Publisher Pat Coleman, Around the Nation columnist Keith McMillan and Deputy Managing Editor Gordon Mann.
Last week’s results, with Gordon going 4-for-4, Pat going 3-for-4 and Keith going 2-for-4.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Wesley 10. Gordon’s pick of Mary Hardin-Baylor 28-20 was the closest.
Bethel 27, Central 13. Gordon’s pick was the closest, as the only one to pick Bethel. (Guess he knew it would snow.)
UW-Whitewater 47, Wabash 7. Keith’s pick of 44-21 was the closest.
Mount Union 52, St. John Fisher 10. Pat’s pick of 40-17 was the closest.
On to the games!
Mary Hardin-Baylor (13-1) at UW-Whitewater (13-1)
Pat’s take: I really want to take Mary Hardin-Baylor and shock the world but I don’t know that they have enough offensive diversity to get it done. The year they made that run into December, remember, they did it on turf when the weather was bad. They played at Washington and Jefferson in the quarterfinals and Mount Union in the semis, and though it was cold, the field was consistent. They won’t see that this weekend and that’s the deciding factor in my mind. If they take better care of the ball and stick to their game plan they will win. However, Whitewater has a way of getting the ball back and they will here.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 21.
Keith’s take: I have a real strong feeling that the other semifinal will be won and lost in the trenches. We can be certain that Mary Hardin-Baylor will be more careful with the ball in the early going this time around after turnovers got them in trouble early during October’s 41-14 loss at UW-Whitewater. If UMHB’s defensive line keeps blocks off Jerrell Freeman and Eric Henri, the Crusaders are good enough defensively to keep it close. And that’s where Mary Hardin-Baylor is effective, not so much jumping on teams, but wearing them down. Both teams will try to establish the run, but look for UMHB to be more conservative while the Warhawks are opening things up as they gain confidence in Danny Jones weekly. The Crusaders definitely have a chance here, but the smart pick is the Warhawks.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 24.
Gordon’s take: There has been a lot of focus on how Mary Hardin-Baylor committed five turnovers against UW-Whitewater earlier this year, leading to 24 Warhawk points. That could certainly be an aberration for the Crusaders who only had about 1.5 turnovers per game in all their other contests. But it’s not an aberration for the Warhawks who have forced 48 turnovers this season, including 14 in the playoffs. Even if Mary Hardin-Baylor doesn’t give up the ball, can they sustain a drive against Warhawks? In two games the Crusaders have had 27 offensive series against the Warhawks. They have had one drive that went more than 50 yards. They have had 15 that 10 or less, including a handful where they went backwards. UW-Whitewater has a balanced enough offense and aggressive enough defense that they will put points on the board. Can the Crusaders do the same?
UW-Whitewater 28 Mary Hardin Baylor 14.
Bethel (13-1) at Mount Union (14-0)
Pat’s take: This isn’t a place to take dumb chances. It’s a place to take smart ones, like sticking with your running game down by two scores in the fourth quarter, or going for the end zone with a running back on a swing pass rather than kick a field goal to close the half. It’s not a place to go for it on fourth down from your own 25. It’s not a place to be at less than 100% health. If, and only if, Bethel can control the ball for 40 minutes, like it did at Central, or like Augustana did at Mount Union in 1999, this will be a competitive game. But while I expect Mount Union to score quickly, I don’t expect Bethel to be able to do it every time down the floor. Wait, sorry, field.
Mount Union 48, Bethel 20.
Keith’s take: Bethel seems to be built to grind, so if it can do a couple of things well early, we’ll have an interesting semifinal. They have got to either jump on Mount Union first or limit the Purple Raiders’ start, perhaps by forcing field goal attempts on early drives instead of giving up touchdowns. To stay competitive early, as Mount Union’s last two opponents have failed to do, they have to finish tackles, especially the first guy who gets to Nate Kmic. The Purple Raiders lost their last meeting with a MIAC champion, back in 2003’s Stagg Bowl, which might provide the Royals a reason to believe they won’t be blown off the field. Bottom line, if Bethel can turn it into a grind, they have a chance. Mount Union’s been too diverse offensively and too stout defensively for everyone else though, so I’ll go:
Mount Union 41, Bethel 13.
Gordon’s take: Mount Union hasn’t played anyone close enough this year to give us a good sense what its weakness is, if any, but the Ithaca game might be the best indication. The Bombers scored 18 points by throwing the ball for 324 yards. The only other team to score more than one touchdown against the Purple Raiders was Otterbein, who had two passing touchdowns. That’s not to say Mount Union is vulnerable against the pass, but you need a good passing attack to have any hope against this juggernaut. If you can move the ball in the air…if you don’t commit turnovers…if you don’t give up 20+ yard gains to Nate Kmic…if pigs fly…maybe you can beat the Purple Raiders. The Royals’ offense is primarily a rushing one and their 167.3 passing yards per game ranks second last in the MIAC, ahead of only Hamline. Not a good sign. Nor is the fact that quarterback Ben Wetzell is banged up from last week’s game at Central. Plus I can’t shake the feeling that Bethel will battle “just happy to be here” feelings of their own, after a long road trip to a prohibitive favorite during the deepest playoff run in Royals history. All that adds up to a lopsided affair in Alliance.
Mount Union 42 Bethel 7.
As always, great analysis!
My mind, the stats, and recent history tells me that it will be UWW/MUC Stagg Bowl III but my heart tells me the UMHB will pull the overtime upset and face MUC next Saturday in Salem.
Either way, I hope both are entertaining, well played games! This is what the season is all about!
See you in Alliance!
Actually I was 4-for-4 last week. Not that I’m counting or anything. 🙂
That makes up for picking St. John’s I guess. 🙂
Will correct.
Well?
I am predicting you will be 1-1 this weekend but we shall see.
Yeah, “see you in Alliance.” Imagine that, Mt. Union gets to host a semi-final. Gee, what a surprise.
I know Mt. Union is a #1 seed and Betehl isn’t, but if Central had won the West, would the game be played in Pella? Of course not, the NCAA will always give Mt. Union every advantage it can. If the Final Four teams are seeded, an undefeated Mt. Union, playing in a powder-puff conference, will always get the top seed no matter what anyone else does. If the sites are rotated between regional winners, Mt. Union will always be sent to a region that is hosting that year. The selection committee has had their lips firmly attached to Kehres’ sphincter for over a decade.
Any system that allows one team to play in a dozen consecutive semi-finals without ever playing a road game in the playoffs is deeply flawed, and any success this team has is tainted. At the very least, Mt. Union should get an asterisk behind their titles, as in:
Stagg Bowl winners:
2006 Mt. Union*
2005 Mt. Union*
2004 Linfield
2003 St. John’s
2002 Mt. Union*
2001 Mt. Union*
2000 Mt. Union*
1999 Pacific Lutheran
1998 Mt. Union*
1997 Mt Union*
1996 Mt. Union*
* denotes team that hasn’t won a road playoff game in over a decade
Pat, Keith and Gordon: Great analysis.
I’m very interested in seeing if Bethel can run the ball tomorrow. Not consisently. At all. Period. This MUC defense is very, very good against the run and if Bethel is really as one dimensional as they sound, they’re dead meat. Ithaca and SJF both had good running offenses coming into Alliance and MUC was very focused on stopping them. And they did. Completely. What made Ithaca and SJF a threat to score was they could throw it too. I have a very hard time thinking a one dimensional team will have enough success against MUC to win. Make it a ball game and keep it close? Sure. But not enough to actually win unless MUC turns the ball over.
On to WWW/MHB:
In my mind, the field surface will be a much bigger impact to MHB’s chances than the actual weather. You can always dress warmer if the temps are down, but how do you adjust your game if you’re playing in slop when you’re used to artificial turf? Plus, the Whitewater running game is built for poor field conditions. A lot of beef up front zone blocking, with a very powerful runner. While by contrast, MHB’s run game is more option/speed based. Both of which are greatly affected by poor field conditions.
Then factor in that Whitewater can throw the ball, it’s a slam dunk. Unless the turnover battle goes in MHB’s favor, we’re looking at MUC/WWW Part 3.
Honestly I’m pulling for MUC/MHB just to change things up a bit (and to correct the ’04 loss in the semi’s), but I seriously doubt that it will happen.
Forecast tomorrow in Whitewater per weather.com: Mostly Cloudy, 18 degrees with only a 10% of precip. Perhaps the good Lord wants UMHB to win.:)
UMHB 35
UWW 24
Mount Union 28
Bethel 31
Why not? It could happen. Good Luck to all. Play hard!!!
neutralobserver: Mount Union has certainly earned home games over that stretch. Should a home field be given to a less-deserving team just to make you happy?
It’s unfortunate that the East’s higher seed didn’t advance in 2005, the year Mount Union was not the No. 1 seed.
Excellent Analysis! Just one of the many reasons to visit the d3football site each day. Time to hit the road to Whitewater! Good Luck everyone..Be safe.
Here we go again about conference strength and the “Mount Union” factor. It is true that the bottom half of the OAC is in a rebuilding stage. The top five however were all ranked in the top 25 during some or most of the year. That is for 2007 only. For 2006 and previous years, Capital, Ohio Northern, BW, and John Carroll have been playoff teams and have advanced deep into the playoffs. Had Capital not met Mount (in Alliance) the past several years, they might have gone further.
If Mount is the #1 team in the nation (and deservedly so given their track record), why shouldn’t they deserve home field advantage in the playoffs?
I would think that if the fix was in, the NCAA would probably like to see more diversity in the Division III champions in order to stimulate interest and find ways to make MUC’s road harder than easier.
In any event, you can leave your asterisks if it makes you feel better. A title is a title.
neutralobserver
Man, are you for real? You do realize don’t you that MUC played away games during their win streaks of 48 games and then 55 games and then 33 games? Unbelievable commentary!
Gordan I thing you are actually right on this week with the Mount score. I don’t think Bethel will fair very well running. They will have to open the game up a little maybe hit 1 or two big pass plays. Either way, SJF found out the hard way that whatever breaks you may get you have to take advantage of them. If you get in the red zone, you have to score. Then there’s the nightmare of trying to stop Mounts O.
rona:
Yeah but not in December according to neutral. The rules are the rules. You want the #1 overall seed? Be #1 in the country.
neutralobserver,
It looks to me as though “*” stands for the team with 9 nat’l championships. By the way, Mount has won nine times on the biggest stage in DIII ball, The Stagg. That’s the only away game that matters. Boy, sour grapes!
Gordon,
Coming from a guy who doesn’t get west often, I think your analysis is particularly astute on Bethel-MUC. I’d like to see a good, close game, but will MUC there’s always that stomp-and-bury potential.
As for UWW-UMHB, will relatively easy win earlier hurt? I know the Hawks are vets, focused and well-coached, but you have to wonder how the confidence will ebb and flow tomorrow should one team or the other get to a fast start .. or if it stays tight until late in the 2nd half. Could be a more intriguing game than many expect.
Any inside information on Jeff Schebler’s injury (UWW place kicker)? I would like to mention Nick Croak’s AMAZING job filling in while Jeff was out!
If by neutral observer you mean bitter and clueless then you’re a neutral observer 🙂 …Wow…its almost hard to imagine that post is for real…
Id be willing to place a large wager that neither Central or Bethel could go undefeated in the regular season in the OAC so please enough with the powder puff bull…you’ve already seen the members of the East we’ve had to induct into SJF Fan’s “Purple -patsy” league so far this playoff season… The truth is that neutral observer and plenty of others in DIII will continue to rationalize the inability of most ( I said MOST) of the DIII teams to rise to the level of MUC and stop them from winning titles…If MUC won every playoff game on the road, it wouldnt matter….they’d find something else to cry about…
But seriously, look at the scores to the first three games this playoff season for Mount Union – do these really look like outcomes that would have been affected by the playing field? how about we look at all the other playoff seasons that have an * beside them and look at those scores? ( but of course any game that was within 20 points you would say the outcome could have been different) I know that post was meant to make us go up in arms…sorry to say it worked…
Just givin’ ya the needle guys, MUCnash you get it 🙂
I was actually impressed at the correct spelling of “sphincter”. I had to look it up.
bigwheels77,
I have insider info from a former acquaintance of yours, who is a distant cousin of your great grandmother, who was married to Napolean, and they said that you are on some serious drugs. ARE YOU CRAZY!!! If your not saying that Mount and UWW are cheating with this totally inappropriate statement then how come you didn’ mention SJF, TCNJ, UMHB, etc. I’ll let other people bash you about that statement but to what advantage would it be for DIII players to “juice”. They aren’t goin pro and a small “winkie” isn’t worth the trouble. Let me clarify this for you. Mount and UWW are just real G-O-O-D! And to end with a Fred Sanford quote: “You big Dummy”.
I would sure hope that none of our young men are using performance enhancing drugs. I agree with R24, there is no big payday at the end of the rainbow. Memories of accomplishments but those are tainted if juicing.
I have no proof to contradict your claim but you better be able to back that up if need be because that is serious. I wouldn’t touch that issue without proof positive.
btw R24. That was a good post. Liked the family ties All the way back to Napoleon! That’s an impressive family tree!!!!
See all you Mount and Bethel fans tomorrow in Alliance!
Good luck to all!!!!!
I’m going to leave the anti-bigwheels roid rage to others. I’m also going to leave alone the asterisk argument to others. Instead, I’m going to simply offer my mini-analysis and predictions.
BETHEL AT MOUNT UNION
Bethel has been playing very good defense in the last month. However, they have not had to play anyone nearly as powerful as Mount Union (of course no one has, unless they’ve played Mount). It appears from statistics they have been relying on the running game up to this point. They will need balance to have a shot here. Trying to step up an undeveloped passing game against Mount Union seems like a recipe for disaster. Yet, they will have no choice because they will not be able to run against Mount. Bethel has had a great season, but it will end Saturday. No disrespect intended, but:
MOUNT UNION 52
BETHEL 7
UNIVERSITY OF MARY HARDIN BAYLOR AT UW-WHITEWATER
Having gone back and forth with UMHB fans for nearly two weeks now, I’ll admit up front my UWW bias. Fun debate aside here’s what I truly believe:
Both UMHB and UWW are very good football teams. The earlier game between the two schools will have no bearing. The scoreboard now reads 0-0. The weather and field condition have been debated and will be a legitimate factor. From what I saw of UMHB and from what I gather from looking at their statistics they rely heavily on their running game. That will certainly be a better strategy in the Wisconsin winter than the spread offense. However, it appeared from the one look I had at them, that they are built for a speed game and like to utilize the pitch. I may be wrong on this because I observed a small sample. However, both of these aspects of the game are problematic with the slow, icey turf and cold, numb hands. Even more problematic is the stiff UWW run defense. UMHB will have to show some balance and their QB will have to avoid mistakes.
On the other side of the ball, it appears UMHB has a very strong defense. UW-W would be wise to be patient. Neither team can afford turnovers. They do have a measure of balance and a QB who can both throw and run. They are capable of long drives. In the playoffs, they have shown a big play capability.
UWW did not see the best UMHB had to offer the last time they played. I believe they will see UMHB play much better tomorrow. I also believe it won’t be enough.
UWW-27
UMHB-17
R24aider
did you hear what I said… A running back that played at Mount (last year) and a UWW student (last year). I don’t know anyone from SJF, UMHB or any of those other schools. Therefore I do not have info on their teams.
Secondly, don’t advertise your ignorance… Your “winkie” does not shrink on roids… It is your “balls”, that shrink. Get your head out of Mount’s “rear” and read a book.
Finally, I was not trying to put them on trial… I just want to know if anyone knows how prevalent it really is at programs around the country… Don’t be a foolish and think that it is not going on. Look at the numbers, kids are using this garbage in middle schools.
mt union 26 bethel 21
UWW 35 umhb 8
mt union will trail in the second half
mille-
not giving UMHB any credit there, are you? that’s a pretty big margin.
mille-
I’m assuming you just staggered back from happy hour.
Things still look good for a ball game with temps around the low thirties with a chance of a rain/sleet mix. I don’t see Mount putting up more then 40 points unless Bethel loose their head and puts the ball into the air. If they make that mistake I have to add at least twelve points for the Mount defense. I make the final Mount 52-7. See you at the game, I’m that Steeler Jerk.
vhwon
Actually i think that UMHB is a good team. Probably the third or fourth best team in D3. Unfortunately for them there is a huge gap between them and the next tier…
Hey neutralobserver could it be that Mount Union record allow them this honor.
Check this link. http://www.muc.edu/athletics/men_s_teams/football/football_notes__1
So I scouted it out and if, now I’m not assuming anything, but if Mount Union and Whitewater were to play again for the Stagg Bowl I found out what would be the easiest for both teams. Instead of Salem (where I had a wonderful experience last year) which is a long way from Whitewater, the geographical center would be around Goshen, IN. It is 4 hours and 13 minutes from Whitewater and 4 hours and 45 minutes from Alliance. Here is the stadium that they have there. If they added a little bit more seating they probably could host it http://ifca.zebras.net/ifca/candler/region2/goshen.htm
Sorry that it won’t link, you can copy and paste it. Parking looks like it could be a problem, but it’s almost equal in distance from both schools.
Now just so you all know this is a joke and I know that Salem is a great host and probably will hold onto the Stagg for quite a while. But if Mount Union and Whitewater continue to make it to the championship, who knows? 🙂
I wish I could go to the game but work has priorities. The cost of the charter flight to Whitewater is only $390.00 round trip, it was almost $900.00 to Wesley. I think that’s a great deal especially to see these two high ranked outstanding football teams.
I wish the cru good luck and they may need it. If the game was at Belton then UMHB would win a close game. Since the game will be in Whitewater, I think the Warhawks will pull it off. The difference will be qb play and field conditions not weather conditions.
UWW has more of a balanced attack and will keep UMHB guessing. If UWW tries to run all day then they will lose as no one can run on UMHB including MUC. UMHB’s option attack may cause them to turn the ball over some and if you do that against UWW up there, you are in a world of hurt. However, I hope the cru wins so we can keep playing and go to the Stagg.
If I were a betting man this is what I would throw a wager on.
UWW-41-UMHB 28, MUC 52-BETHEL 21
mille125 Says:
December 7th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
mt union 26 bethel 21
UWW 35 umhb 8
mille125 Says:
December 7th, 2007 at 7:52 pm
mt union will trail in the second half
—————–
ahem.