Alright, so, the previous blog post has devolved into a St. John Fisher/Mount Union back and forth and there is some good discussion there about Mary Hardin-Baylor and Wesley.
But there are two other games that are taking place on Saturday as well, and we’re sure people want to talk about them without having to wade through all the other so-called discussion.
Three West teams remain alive out of the original seven selected, with Wabash crashing the party in the North Region to represent the North in its own bracket. I’ll move some of the related comments over here but want to get people started, especially on the teams getting out from under St. John’s shadow.
All of the picks seemed sound…
…but we Central fans put the Wartburg fans to shame in the final game of the regular season at Wartburg.
You will be pleased with the Dutch this weekend Pat
Is anybody giving Wabash even a puncher’s chance this weekend? I understand UWW is #2 and dominated UMHB when they went to Whitewater, but Wabash held Case to negative yards rushing and the game wasn’t as close as the 38-21 score would indicate. Hudson only threw 6 picks all regular season and the offense has been getting steadily better since he was named starting QB. I don’t think Wabash is the better team but can someone say they at least have a chance. They have good linebackers and a great one in Adi Pyrenberg and UWW is primarily a running team, strength on strength. Also, Wabash runs the spread offense which has given teams with less talent a chance this year such as App. St. vs Michigan. I think it will be closer than the experts think, and hopefully I’m not eating crow Saturday night.
It sounds like Wabash has played pretty well so far but, the fact that your QB has only thrown 6 interceptions will not be a factor. The D-line and Linebackers causes bad throws that create interceptions. I also understand that the Wabash D-line did a great job last weekend but, have they matched up with any O-line with the size Whitewater has? I have watched this team all year, we pound the rock for a reason. The Warhawks have seen a spread offense the last two weeks and have found a way to shut it down after making adjustments. This should be a fun game to watch and I think Wabash can keep it close for a while but just like last week, I feel the Warhawks will turn it on when they need to and pull away.
Keith – quick questions on UWW for those of us that have not seen them play this season.
In your opine, are they better than last year’s version?
and
Is it safe to assume that they’ve had the hardest schedule this year given the game against a D2 school, and games and convincing wins vs. MHB, Capital, and Eau Claire?
Did you see my question on UWW?
OK,
So for the record, I have not seen a UW-W game yet this year. I have kept in touch with several people regarding their play and their fortunes, and this is what I’ve gathered.
Personally, I find it hard to believe they are better than last year. They guys they lost were some of the greats at their positions not just last year but in the last several years. Plus they lost two of their top three coaches.
But they did bring a lot back, especially with that OL and Beaver and on defense, and as I gather, Danny Jones has been everything we expected if not more. It seems like the offense has been adequate but still has room to improve. The North Central game was their most explosive game, but Leipold said he wanted to see them put drives together.
Defensively, I’m told that they are better than the past two. A lot of the cast is the same, so that makes sense. The logic on losing Kleppe, the stud DT, is that he did so much last year that perhaps some people began to rely on his production, and this year with more expected out of certain DL and LB, they have risen to the occasion. So they’ve lost their best player but in fact are a better unit. That thought comes from on campus too, it is not something I thought up myself.
What I’m really starting to realize separates the men from the boys, so to speak, in D3 is line play. For instance, Muhlenberg said Wesley was bigger up front than anyone they played and roughed them up (I can basically vouch for that). Wesley and UMHB might match up, and they have similar talent at the skill positions as UWW, but both of them get beat up up front against the Warhawks.
And in the Stagg Bowl last year, the MUC interior OL kept Kleppe in check and the DL never really let the UWW line establish the run. Both UWW-MUC Stagg Bowls were good games, but MUC controlled for the most part.
So, while line play is far from my area of expertise, and I can’t really explain why the lines I’ve mentioned have dominated the other besides obvious factors like size, speed or overall better play, that seems to be the be the place where the good separate from the great from the elite from the champions.
FWIW. Someone who’s been in the trenches, perhaps against or for one of those teams, help me out there.
(Big smiles on OL across the country right now, right?)
I’m pulling for Bethel over Central.
(Why? because I think that mean SJF has a chance at hosting the Semi’s when we’re done with MUC!)
If there’s a schedule tougher than UWW’s, I haven’t seen it. I’m no big fan of the WIAC, but it’s a conference grind unmatched. Plus UWW’s recent schedules have always been ambitious and include plenty of big names. Before they added UMHB, they had MUC, Hardin-Simmons and some decent NAIA teams (St. Xavier). Gotta respect that.
I hope Danimal’s not eating crow Saturday night, either, because I’d have to bear witness.
In the playoff team capsules, Pat, you mention that UWW’s chances as follows: “A return to the Stagg Bowl cannot be ruled out. But a first-round loss can’t be, either, based on the matchup.” Wabash received “They have the juice to get to the regional finals, but not beyond.” Having seen how the first two rounds played out, how would you amend those statements in retrospect (if at all)? Also, is Keith willing to reveal yet which one team he feels may give/should have given UWW problems?
P.S. Wabash may be the smallest school still standing by enrollment, but I doubt you’ll be able to tell by its fans this Saturday.
As for UWW being as good as last year my answer would be I am not sure. At the start of the season I would have said simply no way but after watching them progress with every game this year I don’t know. I believe the defense is better and Danny Jones has made great strides mastering the offense. Replacing last years difference makers is impossible but a solid receiving group with Beaver, Jones, and an awesome Oline can almost make you forget Stanley making those great catches…..almost. Don’t know much about Wabash except it’s an all boys school and we have no common opponents. Should be interesting since we never played them before…..they will have to consitently win the battle with our Oline which is something most smaller teams have a difficult time doing because they are a good sized line but also quick. The result usually is Beaver stopped some times but other times it’s 70 yard TD. 42-7 is my prediction
I already posted this on Gameday-Semifinals article, but it’s more appropriate here so I’ll repost…
Bethel and Central had 4 common opponents this year. BV, SJU, UST and Simpson. Bethel beat the Storm 35-0 (Central won 28-21) and UST 19-18 @ UST (Central won big 35-10, but if I remember, the Tommies outgained them by a wide margin) and as OAS pointed out in an earlier Around the West article, freshman All-MIAC RB Flannery only had six carries against BV in the season opener.
Like you said, common opponents, especially early in the year, only takes us so far. As I see it, the keys to the game will be turnovers and redzone Offense/Defense. Central’s two MIAC victories involved them creating multiple turnovers and taking advantage of these opportunities. Bethel’s loss to BV involved a poor 2 for 7 in the redzone, a major problem for the Johnnies on Saturday as well.
Different teams match up differently, I think we’re looking at an exciting West Region final. The last two times these teams met invovled an OT win for the Dutch in Pella and a Dutch victory in Arden Hills, where Porta came up a yard short of the endzone as time expired (Bethel dominated stats 539 total yds to 239; but Central’s special teams were extraordinary-see 80 yd punt)
Should be a showdown!
I have been of the opinion all year that Whitewater lost a lot of explosiveness when Jacobs with his cannon arm and Stanley with his fleet feet moved on. The “home runs” just weren’t there this year.
Until lately. Beaver busting long runs, and the long pass showed itself in the Capital and NCC games. The UWW offense has been methodical and pretty opportunistic all year – if they add big plays on a game by game basis, Whoa Nelly they will really take it to another level.
Obviously, the D has been very opportunistic as well, with the turnovers and scores – especially in the BIG games (MHB & playoffs). They’ll need to continue that as the opposition just gets tougher.
atmgr: I wouldn’t change my assessment.
Wabash may be the smallest but if you compare Wabash’s enrollment to the male enrollment of the other seven schools you may have a different result.
Sorry Pat, if my post-script wasn’t a clear statement. My statement was intended to say there’s an incredible fanbase, which should not be something restricted by male enrollment. Anxious to see how it all plays out this Saturday!
I think UW-W’s male enrollment probably dwarfs that of Wabash…if not, we’re talking about a 10:1 female:male ratio at which point I could understand why a dude would want to stay there for 14 years!
It sounds like there is going to be a very sizeable migration of Wabash fans north to Whitewater this weekend. We’ll have a good time regardless of the outcome. I’m most interested to see how Wabash has progressed since the 2002 quarterfinals. I think the LGs are a lot closer to that upper echelon of Division III now than they were five years ago and on Saturday we’ll get to find out.
Duh. And not related to the “smallest school still standing by enrollment” point earlier. 🙂
I have seen every Warhawk game the last three years. I would argue that offensively this team cannot stretch the field like it could the last two years with the Jacobs / Stanley connection gone. Danny Jones has progressed nicely, and is a much better runner than Jacobs, but doesn’t throw the ball as well. Beaver is getting a lot of big runs, but there havn’t been as many sustained drives.
Defensively we are better this year. However, we have not handled the spread all that well. UW-Platteville moved the ball between the 20s on us for 3/4 of the game, and North Central probably did as well as anyone has against us all year.
But I think Keith is right. Our lines slowly begin to wear people down and take the game over as it goes on. I think that will be the difference on Saturday.
uwwWHOOT –
Of the games you have seen your impression is that maybe this year may not be as good as prior seasons –
I guess I was wondering if you are taking into consideration how tough their schedule has been this season compared to prior seasons. A D2 school, Capital MHB, and a few others – They’ve played a pretty tough schedule and still manage to win all but one in impressive fashion.
atmgr: I guess I can make one change to my pre-playoff assessment of UWW. They cannot lose in the first round. 🙂
Having also watched UWW football for years, I would agree with most of the opinions already expressed. At the risk of repeating, here is my assessment of the 07 Warhawks:
1. They have one of the best and hardest hitting defenses I’ve seen in 40 years of watching UW Whitewater football.
2. They have an incredible knack for forcing turnovers. At some point, the continual influx of turnovers have to be an ultimate tribute to a defense, not considered a fluke.
3. Any opponent better be prepared to bring it with intensity for 4 quarters. Between a physical offensive line, and a hard hitting defense, a number of close “3 quarter” games have turned one sided in the 4th quarter.
4. The offense isn’t as explosive or consistent as it was last year.
5. Their offense is committed to the run and is patient. They seem to have a good understanding that a football game is a 4 quarter war and to “pound the rock” will pay off in the end.
6.While not explosive most of the year, the Warhawk offense has shown a propensity to “Answer” in the playoffs. After falling behind 7-0 against Captital, Whitewater drove down impressively and scored on their next possession. Much has been made on this board about the fact that North Central drew within 3 points in the third quarter, 24-21 last Saturday. Do folks realize that slim margin lasted all of about 8 seconds? Whitewater scored on a 70 yard pass the VERY NEXT PLAY FROM SCRIMMAGE to regain a 10 point lead and control of the game.
7. From my observation, this team is well coached, fundamentally sound, and does not panic.
8. Justin Beaver is a running back who shows up and runs hard every week. I think he and other team leaders have instilled a “refuse to lose” attitude on this team.
9. Whitewater has an excellent kicker (who was hurt and did not play against NC, but hopes to play Saturday) punter, and coverage units. There are a number of seniors on these units that provide both quality and leadership.
10.To give my opinion on SFF Fan’s question, I agree with an earlier post from Sakman 1111. In terms of talent and explosiveness, I would say this team does not measure up to last years. However, I do think the defense is better. I also think this team is peaking and still getting better. They have come together and hit their stride at exactly the right time.
11. I do think WW defends the run better than it defends the pass. The spread offense certainly challenges the depth in the defensive backfield of any D3 program. It also forces outstanding LB’s into roles that may not play into their strengths. This probably accounts for NC scoring 28 points against WW on Saturday. However, this strategy comes with a cost against such a talented defense. WW scored 2 defensive TD against NC, so NC’s offensive net was only 14, not nearly enough to challenge WW.
Sorry SJF Fan,
Above post was a typo. I know SJF…No disrespect intended.
Danimal814,
Yes, I believe Wabash has a puncher’s chance. Tell your fans to dress warm. Whitewater is expected to get snow on Friday and Saturday is expected to be 28 and cloudy.
Lot’s of banter about the difference between this years and last years WW O. I do caution that trying to compare apples to apples is a disservice to the current O team. It’s a different head coach, O philosophy, QB, TE and receiving corp that has had some pretty significant turnover during the season (look at opening day WR roster compared to this weeks) What would be the banter if the D had the same changes and were 11-1 ? 11-1 is still pretty damn good considering all the change.
You all must remember that Central had 3 starters on Defense out most of the year as well as their two time conference MVP running back. Central is healthier than they have been all year and their middle linebacker is back in form after missing a game with a broken thumb. Watch out for Andrew Lehn. Central wins this game easily and will give Mt Union more than they can handle.
Sakman111,
42-7, eh? I think you underestimate the LGs. Yeah, DPU’s Marks had an unbelievable game in the Monon Bell, but it woke up ‘Bash’s rush D which typically is its strength–and I’m guessing Beaver can’t duplicate Marks’ effort. Wabash has a posse of top receivers which should keep them in the game. Whitewater will be surprised at the size of the crowd wearing red at the game. And, more than anything else, Wabash’s spirit–“Wabash Always Fights!”–will keep them in the game. With a couple of breaks and great effort from its seniors, the LGs could surprise the evil Warhawks.
I have been trekking down to Whitewater for the playoffs the past two years, in addition to the Wesley game in 2005. Compared to last year’s QB, Jones has more speed and Beaver looks healthy. I simply thought he was a little out of sync when he came back last year from the collarbone injury.
For whatever reason, in the two playoff games so far, this 2007 team seems “less tight” than last year’s team when observing their games against UW-L and Saint John’s. I believe there was more pressure to win last year, given the the experience and returning talent level from the 2005 team. I thought the 2005 team made more of a game with Mt. Union than the 2006 team (I went out to see both games), even though the 2006 was looser and more confident from what I saw at the team hotel.
The weather will help out if UW-W can host another playoff game against either Mary Hardin Baylor or Wesley, provided UW-W wins this Saturday – which I think will happen.
I saw the D II game up at Saint Cloud State – it was really bad execution against a team that did not do well this year in that conference. The score/stats. were closer than what really took place.
I can see UW-W making it to the finals again but the spread offense or something similar to it will give them trouble, if it is Mount Union (they seem to run this type of offense). I thought about this last Saturday during the 2nd half of the North Central game.
Personally, I would rank the 2005 team the best of the three, followed by the 2006 team, and then this year’s team. I think just getting to the finals would be an achievement, given the loss of 3/4 of the defensive line from 2006, and the graduation of Stanley and Jacobs (despite his lack of speed).
To echo Squirrel’s (atmgr82) sentiments, at least 50 of Wabash’s loudest will be at WW on Saturday with a bus the students are taking u and I’m a sure a few more will follow.
I know all the WW fans really love Beaver but don’t forget Wabash has All-American Adi Pyrenberg who this year set the career and single season Wabash tackling marks. Marks had a decent game out of the backfield at Monon but really hurt us catching passes out of the backfield. The defense which had to be out there quite a bit and stayed pretty tight all day.
Although WW linebackers are all over 230, when Wabash comes with 3 and 4 WR packages, those linebackers will probably have to go off the field or run with receivers. Wabash is finally healthy with Mike Russell who will be very good on Saturday, thunder and lightning with Evan Sobecki and CP Porter has proven to be very effective, and Hudson has been very judicious about where he puts the football. Although Wabash runs the spread offense, they can practice very good ball control and control the clock which prevents WW o-line from simply leaning on Wabash.
I kinda find the 42-7 prediction funny b/c Wabash has scored over 20 points every game Hudson has been the starter. Also, Wabash is 2nd highest ranked team in the bracket so they should probably have the best and closest game, right?
Serious shortage of Central/Bethel banter here. Chas07 is right in that Andrew Lehn is a linebacker worthy of taking over a ball game. Another healthy Dutch defender is Dustyn Baethke at stinger who makes a real difference on the outside, fast and physical. And finally Scott Paja, has grown into the spot he took over after Ryan Thmpsn’s knee injury earlier in the year and is doing a fine job. And I haven’t even gotten to our leading tackler for the year Greg Altmier. Last week it was the speedy DBs who shut down SJU, this week it looks like these run defenders have to step up. 30 degrees and rain/snow predicted for Saturday so we’re looking for low scoring but still confident in this Dutch D to get the job done. I’ll go Dutch 28 Bethel 10.
OK, so here are my toughts.
bleedpurple had a very good post and #1,2,3,7,8,9 are all exactly as I see it.
1-The D is amazing this year, the turning point in the season for the team and espically the defense was over in La Crosse. If my memory serves me correct, they were down 21-7 at half and Dan Hall was running through huge holes. I don’t know if it was when the Eagle faithful started chanting “overrated” in the first half or what but around halftime something clicked. And after that the defense has been a machine, probably the best defense I’ve ever seen.
2-They are simply a turnover causing machine, it’s actually crazy how many turnovers they have caused this year. They pick ’em off and they recover muffed punts, everything. And once the D gets their hands on the ball they immeditally look toward the endzone. You can see that all 11 of them want to score, because as soon as they get it, everyone blocks someone on the other team.
3-Exactly. I just realized this on Monday. I was thinking man Whitewater lets the other team keep it close until the fourth quarter and then blows them out. And I realized that they are just wearing down their opponent. They are bigger and faster than all of the teams that I’ve seen them play this year (4/5 home games+the first two playoff games and the La Crosse game) and it really shows.
7-I might get some heat for this, but I think that the best thing that happened to Whitewater was when Coach Zweifl (sp?) left. His offensive play calling was like clockwork. I’m not kidding Whitewater would honstly 95% of the time run on first and second down and then pass on third down. I can’t have been the only person who noticed this. With the new Coach Z, (if he is the one calling the plays) he mixes it up. Brez was a great one and I also think Leipold is, but IMO the offense is in much better shape without Zweifl.
8-Justin Beaver is quite simply amazing, the kid lost his dad which I can’t even imagine. He works hard in the classroom and you can see that he also does on the field. There was this one time when Beaver had like a 20 yard run and the defender tried to fling him down. But the defender fell while he was doing this so he pulled down Justin on top of him, since Beaver never hit the ground he spun off of him and gained an extra 7ish yards. I thought that run summed up Justin Beaver, he certantly never stops.
9-Whitewater’s special teams is amazing, but I really hope Schebler gets back soon. He is really really good and could be important down the stretch. And what can you say about Nick Croak, he is mister consistant.
littlegiants76, I certantly don’t think that the Warhawks will run over you guys, if a team makes it this far they are a very good team. But, if you don’t think that Justin Beaver can match the way Marks played you might be unpleasently suprised come Saturday. But I can’t wait for the matchup, safe travels to all Wabash fans and all the other fans traveling this weekend.
My last words. I think that the loss to St. Cloud State might have been the most benefical thing to have happened to this team in their current run. One thing is they realized that someone other than Mt. Union could beat them. Another is the fact that they only lost by 10 even though they suffered 4 turnovers and they never quit. While Whitewater certantly doesn’t have anyone with Stanley’s speed currently as a WR, I think they still have the ability to go long with Gifford, Mrkvicka, and Rusch. I think that Whitewater has started to rely a little more on the dual threat ability that Danny Jones has and that will really provide a spark. May I also say that the guy is tougher than nails, he has taken some hits this year. As a former lineman I have to give a shoutout to the O-Line. They returned 4 startes from last year and the Junior, Sherman was 2nd team all-conference. The line is great.
I hope everyone can see the Warhawks defense this year, they are really exciting. They probably are “weakest” at defending the pass because they basically won’t let you run, ask MHB. But if you pass too many times, expect a few to be picked and then get ready to tackle. I know I’m in the minority but I feel that this is the best Whitewater team of the three. We shall find out soon. Next year will be the year we find out if Whitewater is here to stay or if they just had a great group of players for 3 years. They only have 7 juniors on the roster this year and there might be a couple of transfers, but if Whitewater continues to have success next year you should count on them being here to stay.
I think it is great that Wabash fans are confident and plan on attending Saturday’s game. I think you should be excited because your team has advanced to the quarterfinals and now you get a chance to see how you measure up against a program that has advanced to the National Championship game the last two years (compiling a 38-2 record against D3 teams the past 3 seasons with both losses coming against Goliath).
I have never seen Wabash play football, so I’m not comfortable making a prediction. Having watched UWW extensively, I know why Whitewater fans would be confident. They have no reason not to be. I find it interesting to read Wabash fans confident that their defense can slow down (stop?) Justin Beaver.
From what I read, both Capital and North Central came into their games with WW highly rated against the run (correct me if I’m wrong). Against Capital, the Hawks gained 197 yds rushing (not to mention a flat out bizarre number of 40+ yard runs called back due to penalty). Against NC, they went off for 310 yards rushing. I know Wabash has a stud linebacker. Perhaps that is the reason for the confidence. We will find out who wins this battle on Saturday, which is one of the great things about D3 football!
Wabash defenses have seen Tony Sutton, Daniel Grove, and Tristan Murray and done well against them. Beaver, I don’t think, is as big an issue as UW-W’s line is. That Warhawk line is awesome and that’s what Wabash has to deal with as much or more than Beaver himself. I don’t know that any realistic Wabash fan thinks that the LGs are going to stop Beaver…but I think we know that we can’t let him bust off 70 yarders all day. Containment will be key, particularly on first down…If Wabash can get the Warhawks into long 3rd downs and let the defensive line pin their ears back, who knows what can happen.
Offensively, Wabash clearly can’t afford turnovers, especially since UW-W is turning those turnovers directly into points lately. Hanging on to the ball will be critical.
Wabash are big dogs this Saturday, no doubt. But I think Wabash is better equipped to play tough against that upper echelon than they were 5 years ago. I think we’ll see a closer than expected game and if it’s close late, anything can happen.
Which experts have already told you what they think? I’d like to know.
I thought that was a pretty honest, thorough fan analysis with some really good insight, so big up to all the UWW fans who posted on this thread. Very helpful stuff.
A few things:
What basis does anyone have to compare Justin Beaver’s and Jeremiah Marks’ effort. That was the word chosen, effort. Has anyone seen them both play? Has anyone who has seen Beaver play been given reason to believe effort is an issue? I haven’t.
Maybe I’m misconstruing the use of effort (meaning results, not try-hard) but if I could, others certainly could.
atmgr82,
Sure, I’m willing to reveal.
so keith-are you going to reveal?
does wabash have a shot, in your opinion?
Geez… I have never seen so much of the same content on one page before.
Summary, UWW is very good… maybe better in some respects than last year. Create lots of turnovers, BIG line play and HUGE egos. (That is not just a UWW thing, it goes for all of Wisconsin… anyone that has been there or knows someone from there will understand.)
I don’t get those Wisconsinites… Cheesehead is a term of endearment. Brett Favre is more recognizable than Jesus and finishing second year after year is viewed as successful. I guess it all leads back to that ego thing… If first place was worth while, someone in Wisconsin would have invented it and everyone from Wisc. would tell you about it.
Bigwheels…I’ve seen Brett Favre, but I have never seen Jesus.
Hope this helps.
Have heard a lot all week about the LB from Wabash. His resume is outstanding, no doubt. Congrats to him on a great career. Been waiting for someone from UWW to talk about their crew since they have been considered pretty good for a few years. Two of them are 1st team All-WIAC and HM to the rookie. Raebel is a 3-time 1st teamer. In addition, he is an AA, 4 year starter and broke some records this year as well. UWW career total tackles and solo tackle records and did it as a SAM. Borzick is an ISU tranfer and All WIAC both years he has played there. Rindahl and Borzick have combined for an amazing 7 of the team’s 27 interceptions this year and Borzick has taken at least 1, maybe 2, I am not sure, to the house this season, Those 7 interceptions probably a result of being taken out of the box. The DC usually does a great job of making adjustments and the defense has the talent to do it.
bigwheels 77, classy post.
To all four teams involved on this dose thread:
Congratulations on a great season, you are all one of the best programs in the country this year and are deserving to be where you are.
I hope the games are great, and that all are injury free.
Good luck.
Also, would love to hear about the other 2 West Teams. How is Bethel going to stack up against Central? Central seems much improved since the last time I saw them play. Can the winner give MUC any kind of a game?
WW vs Wabash Weather Update:
Saturday
Brisk. Chance of snow in the morning…then widespread snow…sleet and chance of freezing rain in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation around 5 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Wind chill factor -1 degrees. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph increasing to east 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Whoever wins the ground game is going to be the winner. Forget the pass and kicking game.
Please everyone coming to the game drive careful.
WIAC Watcher,
GREAT POINT about UWW Linebackers. They are more than pretty good, they are monsters. Pyrenberg is highly touted and I’ve never seen him play. I will say that I would be shocked if AJ Raebel isn’t the best linebacker on the field on Saturday.
Bigwheels77,
I just know you are a cheesehead trying to bait us. Good gag! Nice touch in complaining about how much of the “same content” is on the same page and then going ahead and summerizing it YET AGAIN!! Nice touch, too, on saying:
“If first place was worth while, someone in Wisconsin would have invented it and everyone from Wisc. would tell you about it.”
Actually, the truth of the matter is that first place does, indeed, matter. And as a matter of fact championships WERE invented in Wisconsin. The inventor’s name is Vince Lombardi. It’s why Green Bay is called Titletown and why the Super Bowl Champions are awarded the LOMBARDI TROPHY. But then again, I know you know that Bigwheels77, you closet cheesehead, you!
***Disclaimer: The following statements are entirely based on stat analysis. I have not seen UW-W play this season, but I’d imagine effort to be at 100% or greater (though statistically impossible) this Saturday for both teams, making for a great game.***
After seeing three or four comments querying UWW’s “Strength of Schedule,” I thought I’d point out that the D3Football guys have already made that very easy for us to find. UW-W has a 100% success rate (obviously) in its region to Wabash’s 90% (DePauw) while its opponents have a 57.9% success rate to Wabash’s opponents’ 56.3%. The opponents of those opponents (OOWP, in D3F terms) have 53.5% and 52.3% winning percentages respectively.
To me, the numbers don’t look significantly different when compared with the rest of the numbers on the page (http://d3football.com/strength-of-schedule/2007), but those are the numbers for those who asked. Out of the 8 teams remaining, only Wesley’s opponents have a better winning percentage at 71.6%. The next highest after Wabash is Mary-Hardin Baylor at 55.7%, for what that’s worth. The highest OOWP for those remaining is Bethel at 56.8%.
As per bleedpurple’s Raebel vs. Pynenberg comment, please show some faith in the Gagliardi committee that they recognize a solid linebacker. Pynenberg’s 13.2 tackles per game (54% of which are solo) are impressive. Raebel almost has as many total tackles as Pynenberg does solo tackles, and Pynie has twice the TFLs as well. In my opinion, there’s little comparison between the two beyond the fact that they lead their team defensively. Raebel may have 6″ and 30 lbs. on Pynenberg, but no one bothered to tell Pynenberg that that should make a difference …
As per the offensive end, Wabash has to hold Beaver and Mrkvicka to minimal yardage to win, but Whitewater may have a hard time stopping all five of the Little Giants averaging over 50 yards per game. The third best yard-gainer for Whitewater’s offense would rank 8th on Wabash’s roster based on yards per game. Based on total yards for the season (read: experience), Whitewater’s third-best would be Wabash’s 12th man at best, which I think shows a deeper set of options for sophomore QB Hudson compared to his UWW counterpart and trouble for that oh-so-fearsome AJ Raebel.
For Pat, my best estimates put Mount Union’s male enrollment around 1100, St. John Fisher around 1080, Central around 735, Bethel around 1325, UMHB around 1050, Wesley around 800 (full-time students only), UWW around 5300 and Wabash around 900. This would put Wabash at third smallest number of males enrolled full-time, but I still don’t see what that has to do with the total enrollment versus FAN count.
P.S. Keith, would you be so kind as to enlighten us as to whether or not that “challenging” team will be taking the field Saturday in Wisconsin?
wiac watcher,
I think the game in Pella is going to come down to who can hang onto the ball. The weather forecast gets worse everytime I see it. Hope all the Bethel fans are making the trip down on Friday if they really want to see the game and that they have hotel reservations for Saturday night just in case. Freezing rain is the latest prediction.
Weather aside, I would have given the nod to my Dutch team in another game that could be a battle or a blow out, but a Dutch win either way. Not quite sure how much of last week’s game was Central being sky high and the Johnnies being flat. Ask any Johnnie’s fan and they were flat, not ready to play, didn’t show up, etc. IMHO, I thought they played well, but we played that much better. Maybe that should have been my not-so humble opinion. Bethel has always given Central tough games, but this year’s Dutch have that heart quality that just can’t be measured. They want it and they believe they can do it.
IF, a trip to the semi finals doesn’t literally slip away, I would say that Central’s chances against the Purple Raiders (agreeing with almost everyone’s assumption that they will be playing next week) are as good as anybody’s this year. This year’s seniors are setting a real example for the younger players on how to believe in each other and never give up. Plus they are really playing their best ball right now with everyone healthy.
I’m hoping that the weather predictions are as accurate as usual when they predict a big storm as far in advance as they have been predicting this one, because it is then that they are usually wrong. Playing in the kind of weather that has been predicted gives both sides the “if only” excuse. You don’t want the weather to be the 12th, 13th and 14th men on the field.
Apologies if this has been revealed elsewhere, but….
If Wabash (#3 in region) and MH-B (#4 in region) win their respective games, does Wabash host? I’m guessing yes, but don’t know for certain.
This is correct — higher seed hosts, while North and East host if seeds are equal.
bleedpurple – It’s a good thing that most of the country does not get the NFL Network……….that Packers defense is horrendous!! They should just line up the Patriots and Cowboys and play the Superbowl next week (although if the AFC took notes on what a mediocre Eagles team did to the Pats on Sunday night……they may not be quite the shoo-in that we all thought!!).
The Pack is very fortunate to have a #1 draft pick backing up Favre along with four big, above average receivers………..but that defense needs to regroup at halftime. PLEASE DOUBLE T.O.!!!
atmgr82,
My comments were not meant to disrespect “Pynie”. I have no doubt he is a good linebacker and I look forward to watching him play. I have watched Raebel for four years. He makes big plays in big situations and is flat out a devastating hitter. As we all know, statistics don’t tell the whole story. As far as respecting the Gagliardi committee, of course I do. I am not saying “Pynie” isn’t worthy. But I am simply showing faith in Gagliardi. One can build any statistical argument one wants to help them feel good about a football game. Truthfully, all either linebacker really cares about is who will be playing a week from Saturday. I believe “Pynie” will be resting and Raebel will be hitting people from either Wesly or UMHB.
dukefinadv,
Too early to annoint anyone for the Super Bowl just yet. If GB defense doesn’t play better than they did tonight, I would agree they won’t be there that’s for sure!
Bethel 35 Central 27
It sounds like Central is not taking Bethel too seriously. A dangerous way to prepare for a football game. Bring on the rain, the sleet the snow – Saturday’s game looks to be a great matchup between two great defensive teams. That leads to a contest of a running team (Bethel) and a passing team (Central). In bad wather, I’ll pick running over passing.
Rumor has it that there are 5 fan buses and lots of vehicle traffic going to Pella this weekend.
“Truthfully, all either linebacker really cares about is who will be playing a week from Saturday. I believe “Pynie” will be resting and Raebel will be hitting people from either Wesly or UMHB.”
Safe money would say Pynenberg is currently caring about who he’s playing this week. One week at a time, bleedpurple, one week at a time. Just ask Wash & Jeff what happens when you overlook an opponent … haha. Here’s to a good game tomorrow, though! I think this one will be the best of the bunch this week, and may the best team win.