Triple-take for Week 4

We’re going to take a bit of a different route here and in future weeks in our preview of the upcoming weekend’s games. Each week, Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan will give their take on what some of the big upcoming games are by category, joined by a rotating commentator.

It’s a triple-take on the weekend games, for the price of one. Well, for the price of none, since it’s free!

D3sports.com Deputy Managing Editor Gordon Mann joins us for the first run-through.

Game of the Week
Gordon’s take: No. 24 Montclair State at No. 7 Wesley. The Red Hawks showed they have the defense against Wilkes and offense against Springfield to make this very interesting.

Keith’s take: No. 24 Montclair State at No. 7 Wesley. And not just because it’s Saturday’s only matchup of top 25 teams. Both the Red Hawks and Wolverines scheduled aggressively to begin the year, and Saturday’s winner will continue working on an impressive playoff resume, whether the eventual bid comes in Pool A (Montclair), B (Wesley) or C (Montclair).

Pat’s take: No. 6 St. John Fisher at Ithaca. This recent rivalry has taken on even more intrigue after Ithaca’s surprising loss last week at Hartwick. St. John Fisher has never won at Ithaca but did go to overtime there two years ago and lost by one in 2003. So it’s not like the Cardinals haven’t been able to compete there.

Surprisingly close game
Keith’s take: Union at Rochester. This might be surprisingly close, but not in the way we expected preseason as both have struggled to 0-2 starts. Neither the Dutchmen nor Yellowjackets have been within 16 points of a win, but with a clean Liberty League slate, the playoffs are still in sight for Saturday’s winner. (RPI and Hobart also face off in LL action.)

Pat’s take: Tri-State at Franklin. It might not look like it on paper, teams that were 2-8 and 9-1 last year, but Tri-State has bent and not broken so far in starting 2-0. Franklin will make that defense break a few times but shouldn’t run away with it.

Gordon’s take: No. 17 Wartburg at Luther. No. 17 Wartburg at Luther. Look beyond the Norse’s record (0-2) and you see a team that has played two Top 25 teams very tough. Plus, it’s a rivalry game.

Most Likely Top 25 Team to Lose
Pat’s take: No. 12 Ohio Northern vs. John Carroll. The OAC teams battling for second place and a shot at a Pool C playoff bid behind Mount Union are hard to separate at this point of the season. This is the first time two of the contenders meet.

Gordon’s take: No. 18 Springfield at Alfred. The Saxons can score and contain a running attack, the right recipe to beat the Pride.

Keith’s take: No. 17 Wartburg at Luther. Wartburg’s visit not only brings out the “throw out the record books” quality of a rivalry game, it also features a Norse group which is 2-10 in its past 12 games but has six losses by one score (eight points or fewer). Luther has pushed Top 25 St. Olaf and Central to their limits already, and while Wartburg comes in off two very convincing wins, the Norse might finally catch a break in a close one.

Quickest Game
Keith’s take: Muskingum at No. 1 Mount Union. Some might take less time, but Muskingum at Mount Union might be “over” the quickest. The Muskies aren’t just playing the nation’s best team, they’re doing it on the road, under the lights (7 p.m. kickoff). Good luck.

Gordon’s take: Plymouth State at Mass-Dartmouth. Among the nation’s leaders in rushing yards, Plymouth State averages 65 rushes per game. The Corsairs’ pass-to-rush ration is more than 2:1.

Pat’s take: Ferrum at Shenandoah. Which is a shame, because these teams might not get to enjoy another win this season, so the winner would really want to savor the moment. The teams are 1-2 in the USA South in rushes but seventh and eighth in total offense.

Fantastic Finish that Won’t Be Topped
Gordon’s take: RPI at Hobart. The Statesmen have already had two exciting finishes. They’ll have another with RPI in town.

Pat’s take: Husson at Hartwick. Last year, Husson led 20-0 after three quarters only to see Hartwick quarterback Jason Boltus and running back Lindy Crea hook up for three touchdowns, the final one capping an 80-yard drive with 1:46 left. But Hartwick, which had already had an extra point blocked, missed wide right and Husson won 20-19. You know Husson wants this game so it can play the comparative scores game and claim it could therefore beat Ithaca.

Keith’s take: Carleton vs. Bethel. Offensive lineman Matt Topeff’s fourth-quarter TD pass propelled Carleton to a 17-14 upset over playoff-bound Bethel last season, but the Knights went on to lose six of their final seven. They’ve started 2007 with a pair of convincing wins and probably won’t have to lateral to a lineman with a nice spiral to generate the game-winning play this time. But with St. John’s next, the Knights can’t afford a Royals defeat.

Stepping Stone Game
Pat’s take: Randolph-Macon at Catholic. A matchup with a history of competitive games has a little extra riding on it this year. The winner will guarantee its best season in some time. Catholic is looking for its fourth win, a total it hasn’t seen since 2002, while Randolph-Macon is looking for win No. 3, best since 2004.

Keith’s take: Widener at No. 21 Rowan. The loser will still have a chance at an automatic playoff bid, but with each Philadelphia-area team at 1-1 already, a win will boost confidence heading into conference play, especially if the Profs get a big game from freshman quarterback Tim Hagerty.

Gordon’s take: Hampden-Sydney at Guilford. Both teams need to start the ODAC season with a win, particularly the Tigers who get rival Bridgewater (Va.) next.

Team That Will Be On Your Radar
Keith’s take: Guilford. We know the Quakers have offense (55.7 points per game), but can they muster some defense against Hampden-Sydney, a team equally capable of putting up points (35.0 per so far)?

Gordon’s take: No. 21 Rowan. How will freshman quarterback Tim Hagerty do in his first start against a tough defense in a game with a lot of emotion?

Pat’s take: Elmhurst. Just in time for next week’s game against Carthage, which is not only the CCIW opener for the Bluejays but an early make-or-break type of game between two teams hoping to make a dark-horse conference title run.

A Fairly Confounding Analysis

The AFCA released its preseason Top 25 today.

Wait, strike that. The AFCA released its first poll today. It just looks like a preseason poll, even though three weeks have gone by. Here’s a look:

Rank School (1st votes) Rec. Pts.
1. Mount Union (39) 2-0 999
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor (1) 2-0 899
3. St. John’s 3-0 889
4. UW-La Crosse 2-0 786
5. St. John Fisher 3-0 770
6. Wheaton 2-0 758
7. Wesley 3-0 739
8. Capital 2-0 708
9. UW-Whitewater 1-1 671
10. Central 3-0 610
11. Baldwin-Wallace 2-0 547
12. Ohio Northern 2-0 510
13. Washington & Jefferson 2-0 483
14. Linfield 1-1 356
15. Trinity (Texas) 2-0 346
16. Bridgewater (Va.) 3-0 343
17. Wartburg 2-0 338
18. Salisbury 3-0 276
19. North Central 2-0 259
20. Wabash 2-0 217
21. St. Olaf 3-0 187
22. Rowan 1-1 143
23. Occidental 2-0 139
24. Montclair St. 2-0 129
25. Mount St. Joseph 3-0 127

Others Receiving Votes: Springfield 117; UW-Oshkosh 85; RPI 68; Trinity (Conn.) 50; Ithaca 47; Hardin-Simmons 41; UW-Eau Claire 24; Bethel 22; Whitworth 21; Centre 21; Carthage 20; St. Norbert 19; Christopher Newport 18; Catholic 17; Bates 15; Redlands 15; Augustana 13; Ursinus 13; Williams 12; Hobart 12; Carnegie Mellon 12; Alfred 12; Coe 11; John Carroll 11; Franklin 11; Pacific Lutheran 9; Dickinson 9; Muhlenberg 8; Hampden-Sydney 7; Concordia (Wis.) 6; Widener 6; Cortland State 5; Case Western Reserve 5; Curry 3; Waynesburg 1; UW-Stevens Point 1; Guilford 1; Adrian 1; Ferrum 1; DePauw 1.

There are 65 teams getting votes, which is to the point of ridiculousness. Let’s take a look at some of them.

Centre: 21 votes. The Colonels are 1-2, with a 14-9 win at Bluffton followed by losses to 3-0 Maryville (22-15 at home) and 2-0 DePauw (38-7 on the road). Maryville is unbeaten, and if someone intended to vote for Centre as highly as it appears, that person should’ve voted for Maryville somewhere. Or, of course, DePauw, which crushed Centre. DePauw got one vote. I almost wonder if this person intended to vote for Central, but didn’t know the difference. And of course, the AFCA didn’t catch the error, if that’s the case.

Catholic: 17 votes. At least CUA is 3-0. Never mind that the Cardinals’ opponents are a combined 0-8. Strength of schedule has never been the AFCA poll’s strong point. And this is my alma mater, and I’m still complaining. That’s how bad this is. Guilford, which got one vote, is worthy of far more votes than Catholic at this point in the season.

Bates: 15 votes. And Bates has 16 wins, total, in eight seasons. ‘Nuff said. If this is a mistake vote, perhaps it should’ve been Baldwin-Wallace, which is the previous team alphabetically.

Hampden-Sydney: 7 votes. Someone might’ve sent in their 2004 ballot. This year’s Hampden-Sydney is 2-1, which isn’t bad. Of course, the loss is at home to Johns Hopkins (1-2). Randolph-Macon, which is also 2-1 but beat Johns Hopkins, on the road no less, is more deserving of these votes than H-SC is. Not that I’d advocate voting for either. Four ODAC teams get votes, but none of them is the defending champion, W&L, which at least is still unbeaten. (Unless someone meant to vote for W&L, but hit W&J instead.)

Ferrum: 1 vote. It takes a lot for me to be upset about one vote, but Ferrum is 1-2, 0-2 against Division III schools with losses by a margin of 91-23. Why would the person voting for Ferrum (1-2) not vote for, say, Emory and Henry? E&H only beat Ferrum 50-7.

This doesn’t even address the perennially overrated teams within the Top 25 itself.

We stopped relying on the AFCA poll at the end of the 2002 season and started our own. And last year, we stopped even publishing this poll. But this takes the cake, which is why I had to say something.

ATN’s thoughts on Week 3

Around the Nation went across the nation this past weekend to see what all the Catdome hype was about in the Pacific Northwest. Hear Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman talk about the Linfield/Hardin-Simmons game and more.

Other subjects and teams touched on this week: Salisbury, Montclair State, Hartwick’s star running back, Rowan’s new quarterback, Carnegie Mellon’s decision to go for two, UW-Whitewater’s loss in D-II, Capital’s potential loss at receiver and much more.