Triple Take: Half off in Round 2

Posted on November 24, 2011 by ryantipps

Delaware Valley is one of this week’s toss-up games, where our picks don’t agree.
Delaware Valley athletics photo

The field of 32 has become a more elite group of 16. Last week, several games were decided by 10 points or less. How many of those met your expectations?

The first week fell mostly according to form, and no three-game sweeps were wrong. And few games were outside of the general range of scores that we predicted: Projected blowouts were often just that, and narrow projections often came down to the wire.

So we’ll walk you through our predictions again for Round 2. We’re soon wrapping up the November games and moving closer to the Division III championship Stagg Bowl on Dec. 16.

Remember, these postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of expectations vs. outcome.

If you’re feeling prescient, leave your final score guesses for any or all games below, and be sure to come back afterward to see how you did. There’ll be a live blog running here on The Daily Dose during Saturday’s games, and all tweets with hashtag #d3fb are included.

For more info on the 32-team race to Salem, including the brackets, info on each team and feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 42, Franklin 7
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 35, Franklin 14
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 45, Franklin 10

Ryan’s take: Salisbury 38, Kean 24
Keith’s take: Salisbury 35, Kean 21
Pat’s take: Salisbury 35, Kean 17

Delaware Valley Bracket
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 49, Monmouth 27
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 27, Monmouth 21
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 45, Monmouth 24

Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 38, St. John Fisher 21
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley 20, St. John Fisher 10
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher 24, Delaware Valley 21

Mary Hardin-Baylor Bracket
Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, McMurry 24
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 38, McMurry 23
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, McMurry 24

Ryan’s take: Wesley 28, Linfield 27
Keith’s take: Linfield 24, Wesley 20
Pat’s take: Linfield 35, Wesley 34

Mount Union Bracket
Ryan’s take: Wabash 24, North Central 21
Keith’s take: North Central 28, Wabash 20
Pat’s take: North Central 31, Wabash 20

Ryan’s take: Mount Union 41, Centre 14
Keith’s take: Mount Union 42, Centre 17
Pat’s take: Mount Union 50, Centre 13

ATN Podcast: A week in the books

Posted on November 21, 2011 by Pat Coleman

UW-Whitewater was opportunistic on defense, to say the least.
Photo by Larry Radloff, d3photography.com

Four backup quarterbacks, a wide receiver at corner, a triple-overtime game, an “upset” that all three Triple Take predictors got right and a lot more happened in the first round of the 2011 Division III NCAA playoffs.

Best game? Check. Biggest surprise? We cover that. Best performance by a quarterback off the bench? Best time to turn off the cameras? Most surprising stat? Best defensive effort? Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan cover that and more in the Around the Nation podcast.

Plus Pat gets on his soapbox for a minute or two. But it’s quick.

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You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Plus, here’s this week’s D3football.com reports, with eight of them, seven of which are mostly understandable. Keep your camera’s back to the wind!

Triple Take: Chomping into Round 1

Posted on November 18, 2011 by ryantipps

Will Kean win in its first-ever playoff game? Our crew says …
Kean athletics photo

You’ve probably been reading all week about the uniqueness of this year’s playoff setup, with a spread-out bracket, a team with two Division III losses getting an at-large bid and some likeable and loatheable pairings. You’ve heard large amounts of analysis and predictions — some of which will come true and others that won’t.

But you’re still hungry for more, right?

From now until the third weekend in December, Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps will not only pick the winners of games, but we’ll also project the scores. It’s a transparent test of our perceptions week in and week out. (And we each make our picks independently.)

These postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of expectations vs. outcome.

How does this work?

First, look at the scoring margin. If they are predicted to be a close game, we think the teams are evenly matched.
Second, look at the winners. If it’s a three-man sweep, we think there’s a clear favorite. If it’s a split decision, it’s definitely a toss-up.
Third, look at the total points. If most of us predict a lot of points, you can expect a shootout. Weather permitting, of course.

It’s not a competition between the three of us, so we have no stake in being right — we’d rather see you show off your smarts in the bracket challenge. Ryan, Keith and Pat aren’t keeping score, but usually the first weekend, each picks between 10 and 14 correct winners, often in the ballpark of the actual final. That means these Triple Take picks set the expectation, but we know at least a few teams will surprise us in the opening round. Will it be yours?

If you don’t feel your team is getting enough love, rather than complain, explain to us in the comments section below why they’re going to win. And if you’re feeling prescient, leave your final score guesses for any or all games below, and be sure to come back afterward to see how you did. There’ll be a live blog running here on The Daily Dose during Saturday’s games, and all tweets with hashtag #d3fb are included.

For more info on the 32-team race to Salem, including the brackets, info on each team and feature stories, check our playoffs home page.

UW-Whitewater Bracket
Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 52, Albion 10
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 49, Albion 7
Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 54, Albion 6

Ryan’s take: Thomas More 33, Franklin 30
Keith’s take: Franklin 35, Thomas More 21
Pat’s take: Thomas More 34, Franklin 28

Ryan’s take: Kean 31, Christopher Newport 20
Keith’s take: Kean 22, Christopher Newport 12
Pat’s take: Kean 27, Christopher Newport 13

Ryan’s take: Salisbury 49, Western New England 7
Keith’s take: Salisbury 56, Western New England 14
Pat’s take: Salisbury 62, Western New England 7

Delaware Valley Bracket
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 38, St. Scholastica 10
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 49, St. Scholastica 0
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 70, St. Scholastica 8

Ryan’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 27, Monmouth 20
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan 35, Monmouth 33
Pat’s take: Monmouth 27, Illinois Wesleyan 24

Ryan’s take: St. John Fisher 28, Johns Hopkins 23
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 35, St. John Fisher 21
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher 28, Johns Hopkins 24

Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 38, Norwich 7
Keith’s take: Delaware Valley 28, Norwich 9
Pat’s take: Delaware Valley 49, Norwich 6

Mary Hardin-Baylor Bracket
Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Redlands 17
Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Redlands 24
Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 56, Redlands 21

Ryan’s take: McMurry 45, Trinity 13
Keith’s take: McMurry 24, Trinity 17
Pat’s take: McMurry 35, Trinity 21

Ryan’s take: Cal Lutheran 38, Linfield 35
Keith’s take: Linfield 28, Cal Lutheran 24
Pat’s take: Linfield 42, Cal Lutheran 37

Ryan’s take: Wesley 42, Hobart 10
Keith’s take: Wesley 35, Hobart 17
Pat’s take: Wesley 40, Hobart 13

Mount Union Bracket
Ryan’s take: Wabash 45, Illinois College 17
Keith’s take: Wabash 30, Illinois College 16
Pat’s take: Wabash 38, Illinois College 3

Ryan’s take: North Central 33, Dubuque 13
Keith’s take: North Central 38, Dubuque 35
Pat’s take: North Central 54, Dubuque 28

Ryan’s take: Hampden-Sydney 42, Centre 38
Keith’s take: Centre 37, Hampden-Sydney 35
Pat’s take: Centre 27, Hampden-Sydney 21

Ryan’s take: Mount Union 63, Benedictine 3
Keith’s take: Mount Union 49, Benedictine 0
Pat’s take: Mount Union 56, Benedictine 6