Tag Archives: playoffs

Triple Take: Stagg Bowl predictions

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Predicting the Stagg Bowl has now reached double digits.

Dating to 1999, this marks the 10th consecutive time that we have made predictions for the championship game, though it hasn’t always been with this broad of a forecasting base. To cap the season, we have several voices leading off the discussion about Saturday’s game.

Last year, Tom Pattison of Warhawkfootball.com and Matt Barnhart of Bridgewaterfootball.com were our “champion” pickers, each foreshadowing a 27-24 Whitewater victory. The actual final score was 31-21.

Previous years’ picks: 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007

This year is unique in several ways, and with that comes unique ways of looking at
the matchup. The takes:

Pat Coleman, D3football.com
I haven’t had a great postseason of picks after a good early start, and often it seems to be from picking UW-Whitewater wrong. Last year we saw the key to beating Mount Union, and part of it is containing Nate Kmic. One thing I’ve seen from the Warhawks this year is the ability to limit, if not eliminate, yards after contact. And that’s despite starting two new linebackers. If the game becomes a battle of the secondaries, I like Whitewater’s chances. If it’s a battle of the kicking game, then I like Whitewater even more. But I worry about the quarterback play when I make this prediction. Mount Union clearly has a decided edge in Greg Micheli, with both his arm and his legs. I’m not big into cliches about wanting it more, or stuff like that. I just can foresee UW-Whitewater doing enough things right to win this game.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 20

Keith McMillan, D3football.com
I’d like to call this one a toss-up, but I’m not sure it is one. Unless Anthony White and the UW-Whitewater defensive line can cause some disruption among Luke Summers and the Mount Union offensive line (yeah, I just name-dropped linemen), it seems like the Mount Union offense will hum as usual. It will be physical, and the Warhawks will get their licks in, but if they defend their title, it would be a mild surprise to me. If all else is equal, the combination of the most efficient passer in college football history and the leading rusher in NCAA history should put Mount Union over the top.
Mount Union 38, UW-Whitewater 20

Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
So here we go again. Whitewater vs. Mount Union IV. From a Whitewater perspective, looking at the statistics of Nate Kmic, Greg Micheli and Cecil Shorts, you wonder if the Warhawks belong on the same field. Had the same feeling in ’07. A reporter from the Roanoke area repeatedly tried to get MUC head coach Larry Kehres this week to say that the Purple Raiders were out for revenge following UWW’s 31-21 win in last year’s Stagg Bowl. No dice! Kehres isn’t looking for revenge, he is looking for
his team to play error-free football, something it did not do in last year’s game. The farther you go in the playoffs, the more magnified are turnovers and missed scoring opportunities in the Red Zone. Whitewater getting back to the Stagg Bowl after losing 24 seniors and 17 starters from last year’s National Championship team is simply amazing. The team jelled early in the season and rode its defense to a share of the WIAC title. As a fifth seed, UWW needed to travel to Salem, Ore., to slow down the high octane offense of Willamette. Last week, the Hawks dominated a Mary Hardin-Baylor team that most predicted would beat Whitewater and advance to the Stagg Bowl. The Hawks possess a strong, physical, fast defense. The offense features two 1000-yard rushers for the first time in school history. They are not Justin Beaver, but they are pretty darn good! I also think Whitewater’s special teams have an advantage over MUC, lead by Jeff Schebler, NCAA Division III’s all-time leading field goal kicker. Hawks win the special teams play and force four MUC turnovers.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 21

Bret Page, former Mary Hardin-Baylor linebacker
I believe that both teams will try to set the tempo early by trying to set up and establish the run game. UWW will have a slight advantage at being more balanced and mixing in the pass. Mount Union will have to play well on defense as they seem a little small, and I think Whitewater will make them pay for that as they have proven to be very big and physical in their impressive win over UMHB this year. I think it will be a clean game as both teams are disciplined, so which ever team is able to capitalize on errors such as penalties and turnovers will have the upper hand. I think neither team will be able to count on one player to carry them through, but it will be a total team effort for both sides as they will have to mix it up to try to pull out the win. Whitewater in a close one …
UW-Whitewater 31, Mount Union 28

Gordon Mann, D3football.com
Regardless of how the Stagg Bowl turns out, Coach Lance Liepold has my vote for the D3football.com Coach of the Year. Both Mount Union and UW-Whitewater had to replace a significant portion of their starting lineups this year, but the Warhawks lost the offensive player of the year and their starting quarterback. They’ve battled through injuries, playoff road games and the toughest conference in Division III. The magnitude of that accomplishment underlines potential weaknesses going into Saturday. Last year the Warhawks had an intangible edge in that Justin Beaver was playing the last game in a spectacular college career. This year that edge slides over to Mount Union because of Nate Kmic and Greg Micheli. The situations aren’t the same but watching Mount Union stifle Wheaton when its top running back was hurt makes me wonder how effective the UW-Whitewater’s ground game will be if Levell Coppage isn’t at full strength. And while UW-Whitewater has impressive wins, they haven’t looked invincible. Remember they lost to two-loss UW-Stevens Point and had close games with Willamette and Wartburg (20-17 in fourth quarter). On the bright side for UWW, I was wrong on two of three previous matchups.
Mount Union 28, UW-Whitewater 24

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com
UW-Whitewater is proof that the whole is greater than the parts. The skill players aren’t household names like Mount Union’s Micheli or Kmic, but as a unit, the Warhawks have overcome tests of injury, travel and inexperience, to name a few. They emerged from the toughest branch of the “West” bracket, have been forcing turnovers (+13 on the season) and can put pressure on a quarterback. The biggest offensive weapon for UW-W could be dual rushers that have the potential to sustain a drive and wear down Mount’s defense. But for every score Whitewater can put up, Mount should be able to match. UW-W has proven throughout the postseason that it can stop the run, but facing a passing game as sophisticated and crisp as MUC’s may become the Achilles’ heel for the defending national champions.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 31

Frank Rossi, D3football.com
It’s a tough choice, now that the Warhawks have broken the ice with a win last year. There are some things that are consistent every year with these teams: 1) Mount Union’s offense is in tip-top shape; 2) Mount Union’s defense has proven sturdy all season; and 3) UW-Whitewater’s defense has improved all year. That leaves one question for me — but the Warhawks’ offense is not as strong as it was last year with Justin Beaver. Because of this, Mount Union unseats the defending
champions, pulling away at the end.
Mount Union 42, UW-Whitewater 24

Triple Take: Picking the semifinals

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Look,
There isn’t a whole lot of intro needed here. We have four phenomenal teams left from a crop of 239. Two will punch tickets to Salem on Saturday, one in sunny Belton, Texas, the other in chilly Alliance, Ohio. And believe it or not, we have unanimity among the trio who’s been forecasting each playoff weekend for you: columnist Ryan Tipps, columnist/managing editor Keith McMillan and publisher Pat Coleman.

After the guys have at it, feel free to add your own picks below. Those brave enough win the opportunity to gloat later.

Wisconsin-Whitewater (12-1) at Mary Hardin-Baylor (12-1)
Ryan’s take: The phrase “bruised and battered” means something different to Mary Hardin-Baylor than it does to other teams. Several times this year, it has seemed the Crusaders were poised to stumble under excessive injuries. Yet instead of tip-toeing through the troubles, they ran past them at full speed, helped by the half-dozen guys who have been able to pick up an average of 5 yards or more per carry. Then again, UW-Whitewater, no slouches on offense, will also likely be the stingiest defense UMHB has lined up against this year. A difference of only 10 yards per game, statistically, separates these two offenses. Both teams have been here before — in terms of time, place and stakes. What could hinder Whitewater is an inability to stay at full throttle for the full 60 minutes, allowing UMHB to pull away after the break.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 38, UW-Whitewater 24

Keith’s take: Usually I’m the long-winded, overly analytical one, but I’ll keep my reasoning simple in this toss-up. I’m making the stretch from picking UMHB to be upset in the first round to picking them to get to Salem, basically based on how they’ve played the past two weeks against Wesley and W&J. They’ve been able to mix the pass in with the always-potent running game, and generate problems on defense. They demolished the Presidents, 63-7, and should be as confident as they have been all season; UW-Whitewater had to battle to get past Wartburg. Playing well, playing at home and playing to keep dreams of the school’s first championship alive, I go:
Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, UW-Whitewater 21

Pat’s take: My concern is that another potent running offense will cause the Warhawks to break rather than just bend. If UMHB is in field goal range it won’t hesitate to take the points, which may have been Willamette’s downfall two weeks ago. The Crusader defense will do a better job early in the game than Willamette did against UWW, plus, I’m still worried about quarterback Jeff Donovan, who is 12-for-29 passing since getting injured at halftime of the second-round game.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 31, UW-Whitewater 20

Wheaton (11-2) at Mount Union (13-0)
Ryan’s take: The Thunder struck hard against the trio of Indiana playoff teams, but Ohio will undoubtedly be a different beast for them. Wheaton is best through the middle of a game: The second and third quarters are their prime times for putting up points and keeping pressure on teams, both of which are critical if the men want any chance of beating the Mount Union machine. For the Thunder, slowing Nate Kmic and getting pressure on Greg Micheli are possible. But is shutting down the receiving corps? That will be the biggest key to Wheaton’s chances in Alliance, and I’m not entirely convinced the team will deliver. Wheaton gives up, on average, 228 yards per game against the pass, but to its credit the team has held its previous two (pass-heavy) playoff opponents to fewer than their averages. At this point in the season, Wheaton is accelerating down the stretch toward perfection — and perfection is exactly what will be needed from them Saturday.
Mount Union 41, Wheaton 17

Keith’s take: I love the run Wheaton is on, I love that they’ve been able to play great defense when needed and outscore teams when that’s been the recipe. Pete Ittersagen is a defensive stud, the offense is mixing the run and the pass well, and the Thunder is playing inspired. That said, we’ve seen hardly the chink in the armor necessary for me to believe Mount Union is going down on Saturday. There are flaws, but they remain few, and I don’t see the Purple Raiders playing a sloppy, turnover-plagued game with Greg Micheli at the controls. It might get dicey at times, it might not be easy, but it will lead to another Purple Saturday in Salem.
Mount Union 35, Wheaton 17

Pat’s take: I just don’t see Wheaton having the firepower to stay with Mount Union, not if Rocky Gingg can’t go at running back. Even if Pete Ittersagen keeps Cecil Shorts in check, it’s a tough task for Wheaton to keep the Purple Raiders’ other offensive pieces contained if the offense doesn’t help by keeping them off the field. In the end, this game looks a lot like last week’s Mount Union game, close for a while with the Purple Raiders pulling away. And I think Nate Kmic gets the all-time NCAA rushing record in the process.
Mount Union 45, Wheaton 14

Thank you, UW-Stevens Point

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Those of you who were listening to last couple of hours of our Wheaton-Franklin broadcast probably were puzzled by the occasional references to our Stevens Point studios. That was born out of necessity, but worked like a charm.

At the high school stadium which Franklin used to host its game on Saturday, there were not enough phone lines, so three lines were installed for the radio broadcasts. By the time my brother Ryan and I got to Stevens Point, Wis., where we were getting ready to cover the UW-Whitewater/UW-Stevens Point basketball doubleheader, it was clear these new phone lines were not going to get the job done, as Gordon Mann had been cut off a half-dozen times and the Franklin broadcast had been knocked off multiple times as well.

Luckily, experience has taught me that a new phone line is a disaster waiting to happen, so we traveled prepared. I had a small converter that allowed me to record a cellphone conversation, one we used on Selection Sunday and that is also our ATN Podcast backup. With a couple of patch cables, which (yes) I did bring, we had it wired into the laptop. And thankfully, UW-Stevens Point’s network was available and robust.

So thanks to UW-Stevens Point Sports Information Director Mitch Capelle, who had an NCAA.com broadcast studio in his office for two hours on Saturday afternoon.

It’s not the most jerry-rigged broadcast I’ve been a part of, but I did kind of feel like I was back in 2001. And at least the last half of the game stayed online.

Now, as for Gordon, standing outside in the snow talking into a cellphone (no room in the press box), I can only hope he’s thawed out.

I normally wouldn’t post such an ‘inside baseball’ story, but there were some questions about it so I thought I’d share.