Category Archives: Triple Take

Triple Take: Three big clashes

Posted on by

Pat and Keith are back to help start off your weekend right, and chiming in this week is D3sports.com Deputy Managing Editor Gordon Mann. I won’t keep you with a long introduction. There are key clashes between ranked teams and 19 games against non-Division III opponents. Let’s take a look at some of the highlights of the Week 2 slate:

Game of the Week
Gordon’s take: No. 5 Bethel at No. 17 Wheaton (Ill.). Royals quarterback Reid Velo put up good numbers (241 yards, four touchdowns) on relatively few attempts (17) against Concordia (Wis.). The learning curve gets pretty steep in Week 2.
Keith’s take: No. 16 Ohio Northern at No. 15 North Central. Both the OAC and CCIW have the depth to send multiple teams to the postseason, so don’t think a guy like me isn’t arranging brackets in his head just because it’s only Week 2. I especially want to see what the Polar Bears are bringing to the table because there are going to be more OAC teams chasing playoff bids than available slots. You have to chalk Mount Union up for one, so between ONU, Capital, Otterbein, John Carroll and perhaps Baldwin-Wallace or Heidelberg, one or two Pool C teams should arise. On the flip side, I haven’t heard a bad word about North Central.
Pat’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater at No. 12 UW-Eau Claire. This one counts — in the WIAC standings, that is. Both teams have plenty of questions to answer and each started the season with tough wins against ranked NAIA teams.

Surprisingly close
Gordon’s take: Wilkes at Montclair State. Montclair State was picked second in the NJAC coaches poll while Wilkes is replacing a four-year starter at quarterback and three-time defensive MVP. But the Colonels gave No. 8 Muhlenberg all they could handle on last week, even leading the game in the fourth quarter.
Keith’s take: No. 3 Wesley at Delaware Valley. I like the Wolverines this year as much as anyone, but I wouldn’t bank on a blowout here. Wesley might actually be extra jacked up to play since last week’s game was cancelled, but the homestanding Aggies have a game under their belts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very competitive first half before Wesley makes it a two-score game in the third quarter.
Pat’s take: Dubuque at No. 25 Redlands. The one thing Redlands has going for it is the long trip Dubuque will be taking to Southern California. Well, and the fact that Dubuque might be ripe for a letdown after an uplifting home opener in which the Spartans opened their redone stadium in front of a big crowd. But Dubuque has a game and more than a week of extra practice under its belt and should make it exciting.

Most likely top 25 team to get upset
Gordon’s take: No. 11 Salisbury. Last week Geneva hung with Division II Seton Hill, which had an extra game under its belt. In a week without a lot of good candidates to upset Top 25 opponents, the Golden Tornadoes have a puncher’s chance against Salisbury.
Keith’s take: No. 5 Bethel. These guys are right, there isn’t much to choose from, so I sort of cheated. No. 17 Wheaton winning would technically be an upset, but with the game in Illinois, it’s closer to being a toss-up than the rankings would make it seem. The Thunder not having played would seem to be a weakness, but it also gave the coaching staff extra time to focus on the Royals. Wheaton has the talent to knock No. 5 from its perch.
Pat’s take: No. 21 Ithaca. Not that anyone will take King’s lightly after the Monarchs beat Randolph-Macon last week, but because it’s hard to pick many others. Mary Hardin-Baylor plays a ranked NAIA team that will be playing its third game, for example. Would that be an upset?

Team most likely to bounce back from a poor opener
Gordon’s take: No. 13 St. John Fisher. A lot of good teams have “poor” games against Mount Union. But last week’s 33-3 loss was a little disheartening for those Cardinal fans who were optimistic that their team could keep it close against a relatively young Purple Raider team. They’ll feel a lot better after St. John Fisher beats Buffalo State by double digits at home.
Keith’s take: Concordia-Moorhead. Given the loss at Willamette in the opener and St. John’s and Bethel looming before the end of September, a home date with NAIA Dickinson State is the Cobbers’ season flashing before its eyes. Here’s guessing they handle business and avoid the potential 0-4 start.
Pat’s take: Waynesburg. Even without Robert Heller, the Yellowjackets should handle Hanover. And if they don’t, it could be a long season.

Team playing its opener you’re most curious about
Gordon’s take: Linfield. I took a good, long look at the Wildcats in casting my preseason ballot before deciding to take a “wait and see” approach. The waiting is over, so let’s see what they do on the road against Hardin-Simmons.
Keith’s take: No. 4 Mary Hardin-Baylor. I loved the Crusaders last season, but I don’t have them ranked this high yet this year. They’ll be without their anointed starting quarterback (suspension) in the opener, but handing off to a platoon of backs is work a reserve can do. It’s really the quality of first opponent (NAIA No. 22 Southern Nazarene) and lack of returning starters (three) on offense that concern me. I’ll be checking to see if a defense with seven starters back can carry the load.
Pat’s take: Ohio Northern. They are often highly ranked in the preseason but over the past four years have lost a combined 11 games. That’s not a postseason resume. They’ll have to show better.

Most significant game against a non-Division III opponent
Gordon’s take: Mississippi College at Cumberland (Ky.). After being crushed by No. 24 Millsaps last week, the Choctaws need a bounce back performance to build momentum going into ASC play. Cumberland went to the NAIA playoffs last season.
Keith’s take: UW-La Crosse at North Dakota. Playing against a non-scholarship I-AA is one thing, the Fighting Sioux and their 59 free rides are quite another. When La Crosse beat South Dakota State two years ago as the Jackrabbits were making a similar transition, it was an indication that the WIAC was still Division III’s strongest conference and a reminder that football is football, scholarships or not. The Eagles will rotate sophomores Alex Seguin and Nick Anker at quarterback; What a way to get your young guys some experience.
Pat’s take: No. 19 Franklin at Butler. Butler has had its way with weak D-III teams in recent years and lost to better teams. This game should serve as a reminder that “non-scholarship Division I” is just D-III football with a better weight room.

They’ll be on your radar
Gordon’s take: King’s. The Monarchs raised eyebrows by beating Randolph-Macon last week, 34-13. If they follow that up by upsetting No. 21 Ithaca on the road, they will put last year’s 1-9 season firmly in the rearview mirror.
Keith’s take: UW-Eau Claire. Nineteen returning starters and an opening week win are encouraging; two games against Whitewater are not so much. The first will tell us a lot about the Blugolds.
Pat’s take: Augsburg. And this isn’t to say they’ll beat Wartburg, but that they’ll keep it close. Augsburg beat Wartburg on the road last year, likely keeping the Knights out of the NCAA playoffs, so there is zero chance of Wartburg taking this game lightly.

Triple Take: Welcome back!

Posted on by

Welcome back to Triple Take, where Keith McMillan and I lead a virtual roundtable discussion of the top upcoming games in each of a handful of categories. Sometimes a third member of our “staff” of part-time D-III football journalists gives the third take and sometimes we invite a guest analyst to join us. This week the third chair is occupied by our newly minted Senior Editor, Ryan Tipps.

To comment on the Daily Dose you’ll need to register. There’s a link for that on the bottom of the right-hand rail on this page.

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: Olivet at Wittenberg. Though Wittenberg nabbed a few Top 25 votes, neither team typically registers as one to watch. In fact, even in their recent playoff years, these teams haven’t finish the season ranked. Why do we care? Because these teams have more riding on Week 1 than most other teams, and it should prove to be one of the most evenly matched games of the week. Each team is the other’s own worst nonconference enemy. Coming from relatively weak conferences, losing here means it’s the AQ or nothing.
Pat’s take: Mississippi College at Millsaps. Let’s see, we’ve got the rivalry, two teams that are both in the top three of their conferences … oh, and the way last year’s game came out. If you’re new to Division III, remember that Millsaps somehow treated it like an NFL exhibition game, pulling the starters with a second-half lead. Except, of course, that exhibition games don’t count. And on Selection Sunday, Millsaps, at 8-2 with a 27-26 loss to Mississippi College, was left out. So yeah, let’s not let that happen again.
Keith’s take: Hardin-Simmons at UW-La Crosse. There are (according to my preseason ballot) three clashes between top 25 teams plus UW-Whitewater facing off against NAIA quarterfinalist St. Xavier, but I like this game because it’s got the most riding on it. Think about it. St. John Fisher can recover from a loss at Mount Union to win the Empire 8, Christopher Newport could do the same in the USAC if it loses to Wesley. But the Cowboys and Eagles, each at least second fiddle in its own conference, could really use the non-conference victory to boost a potential Pool C resume — that’s if they get that far. Both teams have tons of talent but struggled to disappoint four-loss seasons last year. One is going to build confidence tomorrow, the other is going to have doubt creep back into its mind.

Surprisingly close
Ryan’s take: Washington & Lee at Franklin & Marshall. Last year, the Generals dealt a shutout thumping to the Diplomats. Not this time. F&M is a sleeper team in the Centennial, still a little shaky in some areas, but poised to take advantage of W&L losing its best offensive and defensive weapons.
Pat’s take: Bridgewater (Va.) at Averett. That’s if the game gets played, since we don’t know what the weather will be like. But even without the rain I think Averett is better than last year and Bridgewater has a lot of work to do.
Keith’s take: Lakeland at No. 9 Central. With just nine starters back, including two on defense, the Dutch might struggle to hold on to their lofty ranking. The Muskies haven’t fared well in non-conference play — they were outscored 138-30 in three losses last year. But they have surviving in the AQ age figured out. Play tough teams that prepare you for your conference slate. Lakeland has eight defensive starters back in the fold, but Central rarely loses, let alone at home. Since this a more or less a new era for the Dutch, close games can qualify as surprises.

Most likely top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 6 St. John’s. The Johnnies could very well struggle right out of the gate as they try to find the right man to replace four-year starting quarterback Alex Kofoed. If East Texas Baptist gets its engines rolling early, St. John’s might not have the offense to bring the team back into the game. That sixth-place ranking could turn into a not-so-sweet 16 real fast.
Pat’s take: No. 12 Salisbury. The Sea Gulls are replacing a good portion of their running game and making the trip to face Albright. I’ll spare the usual ‘revenge on their minds’ cliche and just mention that Salisbury won at home 42-12 last year. But that was when Albright was young and expected to go 3-7, not maturing and on its way to a 7-4 season.
Keith’s take: No. 21 Franklin. There’s a lot to like about the Grizzlies, with 17 starters back, including eight on offense. But there’s also traditionally been a big gap in the quality of play in the OAC and HCAC, so even if Baldwin-Wallace ends up in the lower half of its conference this year, it isn’t an easy non-conference win. Kickoff ’08 had Franklin pegged for 10-0, but Grizzlies players know they’d better worry about 1-0 first.

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: Albright. The Lions took a nose-dive at the end of last season, but not for a lack of talent. With 18 starters back, including stars Tanner Kelly and Matt Christ, the Albright coaching staff has to have a warm-fuzzy feeling in their stomachs — and opponents should have a pit in the bottom of theirs.
Pat’s take: Hardin-Simmons. At the very least, it should be an entertaining game between contenders from two of the strongest conferences in Division III. That is, I’m hoping it’s entertaining, because it will be my third game in 28 hours and staying awake is an issue.
Keith’s take: Augustana. It’s hard enough to debut a new offense, but with the switch as drastic as going from the Wing-T to the spread, and the opponent being Coe, which by having a new coach possibly means film from last year is halfway useless, I’m curious to see how both teams do in this opener.

Team that will get its only 2008 win
Ryan’s take: Hiram. This should be the week that the Terriers snap their 26-game losing streak, but even this won’t be a cake-walk at Gallaudet. Were this the end of ’07 rather than the start of ’08, I’d give the edge to the Bison.
Pat’s take: Lewis and Clark. And that’s a bad sign for Principia.
Keith’s take: Beloit.: With 20 starters back, the Buccaneers could have more than one win on tap, but a visit from No. 237 MacMurray is the best shot they’ll get. Also watch Eureka at Knox, Denison at Kalamazoo and Grinnell at Cornell.

Team with a long trip home
Ryan’s take: Concordia (Wis.). It’s tough to get blown out by the same team twice in a row. It’s even harder when it’s the last thing you remember from the past season and it becomes the first thing you know in the current season. Bethel is the Falcons’ first in a trio of tough nonconference games, and the trick for Concordia’s first-time coach will be to not get himself buried too deep.
Pat’s take: UW-Eau Claire. It’s a shame nobody will play UW-Eau Claire or UW-Whitewater and they not only have to play each other twice, but each have to play 2007 NAIA playoff teams this week as well.
Keith’s take: East Texas Baptist. I was pleasantly surprised to see a trip to St. John’s as the opener after hearing some of coach Mark Sartain’s ideas for non-conference opponents midway through last season. With 16 starters back from a 5-5 team, I wouldn’t rule out a Tigers upset completely, but it’s more likely this trip will function as an experience — first, to play a game in one of Division III’s best home atmospheres and most idyllic settings, and second, a lesson on how a national power handles business.

Triple-take: Stagg Bowl predictions

Posted on by

We’ve predicted every playoff game this season and every Stagg Bowl since 1999. With the championship of the 2007 season upon us we expend our pool of predictors to include people with connections to each team and to the Stagg Bowl, as well as the rest of our Salem broadcast crew.

Last year we predicted Mount Union would win, which is a lot like predicting the sun will come up — admittedly, it’s a safe bet. Ric Brienza, Mount Union broadcaster and publisher of mtunionfootball.com, was our “champion” with a 34-27 prediction in favor of the Purple Raiders.

Previous years’ picks: 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006

He leads off our Triple-take take.

Ric Brienza, publisher, Mtunionfootball.com
The key for both teams will be to limit mistakes and finish drives, especially in bad weather conditions. Mount Union has done that better in each of the last two championship games and that’s a big reason they won both. It looks like weather will unfortunately play a factor in the game. If it isn’t miserable conditions that limit 90% of each team’s offense the Purple Raiders pull away for a comfortable victory. If the weather is really bad, it will be a one touchdown or closer game.
Mount Union 38, Whitewater 17

Pat Coleman, publisher, D3football.com
UW-Whitewater has something it didn’t have the past two years, in a mobile quarterback. It has a healthy Justin Beaver. It lacks the big threat at tight end and the fast guy on the outside. But then again, Whitewater didn’t try to stretch the field too much in 2005 and 2006. The play-caller has changed, the signal-caller has changed and the ground game is just as reliable. But the real change is on defense, where it does seem the Warhawks are better than last year. The secondary will need to continue its ball-hawking, the front four will have to apply the pressure and the linebackers are big, fast, and can make plays. However, I’m not sure that’s enough against this Mount Union team. If the weather is truly awful, knock seven off each side.
Mount Union 35, UW-Whitewater 21

Keith McMillan, D3football.com
For UW-Whitewater to make its third time the charm, it’ll have to figure out how to impose its will on Mount Union. That means dictating the tempo with long drives offensively, and tackling well on defense so the Warhawks can get off the field on three-and-outs. Big names aside, line play and tackling will be keys Saturday — the Purple Raiders just happen to feature one of the most difficult-to-tackle foursomes we’ve seen in Pierre Garcon, Nate Kmic, Justin Wray and Greg Micheli. The Warhawks counter with studs at defensive end and linebacker and a senior-laden secondary. UW-Whitewater can pull the upset — QB Danny Jones, or a scheme from coach Lance Leipold might make Stagg Bowl XXXV different than the past two, but with a Mount Union team with so few weaknesses and one that is so rarely unprepared, I fear we’re in for more of the same.
Mount Union 33, UW-Whitewater 20

Gordon Mann, D3football.com
If Division III football were a different animal, there would be more talk about whether this year’s Mount Union team is one of the best Division III teams of all time. With little video evidence and most Division III fans appropriate focused mainly on their own team, that’s a tough discussion to have. Of course, that discussion doesn’t happen at all unless Mount Union defeats UW-Whitewater tomorrow. And so they will. Justin Beaver is a great running back and an inspirational story, but he was held in check by Mary Hardin-Baylor last week. The Crusaders have a great run defense, allowing just 48.7 yards per game. That’s second in the country to Mount Union who has halved the total to an unreal 24.2 yards per game. The task of keeping pace with the Purple Juggernaut’s offense falls on Danny Jones and the UWW passing game. Jones is a lot of fun to watch, fleet-footed and cannon-armed. But he needs his receivers to get open and make big plays. Outside of Neil Mrkvicka, can anyone else get free from the vise-lock defense of Matt Kostelnik, Jonah Wilson and company? It’s been a great season for the Warhawks in which they have achieved excellence while changing their quarterback, offensive coordinator and head coach. Unfortunately for them, this much remains the same.
Mount Union 35, UW-Whitewater 17

Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
The Warhawks come into this year’s Stagg Bowl with a different attitude. Not the pressure of the past two years. Senior leadership is the difference in this year’s team. Hawks will also ride the wave of emotion after watching teammate Justin Beaver accept the Gagliardi Trophy. Third time’s the charm.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 24

John McGraw, D3football.com
Since this is the third installment of Mount Union vs. UW-Whitewater, who’s Rocky Balboa and who’s Clubber Lang? Somehow I don’t see either Justin Beaver or Nate Kmic shouting out “Yo, Adrian!” after the game. That being said, I admit I picked Whitewater last year and that didn’t turn out too well. The Purple Raiders have bludgeoned everyone they’ve played this year and I think that continues in Salem. UW-Whitewater and Justin Beaver will put up a fight, but Mount’s too much in the end.
Mount Union 31, UW-Whitewater 17

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com
It’s hard to say something that hasn’t been said in some format at least once before. And the even harder part is being on the outside looking in on whatever trick Coach Kehres has up his sleeve for the Stagg Bowl (a la Greg Micheli in ’06). We all know what makes Mount Union good: practically everything. But looking at the opponent, I like that UW-Whitewater has a bigger and more mobile offensive line than the Purple Raiders are used to facing. I like that UW-W has played in snow and ice already this year (have you seen Salem’s forecast?). And I like that UW-W has a new and dynamic crop of playmakers and coaches that will try to jazz things up. No, this will definitely not be played like the Stagg Bowls of 2005 and ’06. Though that doesn’t mean we’ll see a drastically different result. Mount’s just that good.
Mount Union 38, UW-Whitewater 20

Matt Barnhart, Bridgewaterfootball.com/Stone Station
Entering both the St. John’s game (’03) and Mary Hardin-Baylor game (’04), the Purple Raiders looked unstoppable, allowing only 6.5 and 8.7 points to their opponents, respectively. This year is no different, with only 10 touchdowns being scored against MUC. But as in 2003 and 2004, playoff opponents found a way to beat The Machine. They did it by sticking to the run, and forcing MUC to throw. SJU and MHB combined for 116 rushes for 555 yards. They also combined to hold the Raiders to only 211 rushing yards — on 69 carries — and 25-of-57 passing with five interceptions. That’s not what Mount Union wants to do. This season, UW-Whitewater has nearly rushed (679) exactly twice as much as they have thrown (340). The Warhawk defensive line — a six-man rotation — has combined for 50.5 tackles for a loss and 35 sacks this year. It’s also worth noting that UWW has forced 49 turnovers this year — second best in Division III. If they can stop the run, and the Gagliardi winner carries the ball 35 to 40 times, I like UWW in a close one.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 24