Category Archives: Triple Take

Triple Take: First Round Predictions

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Week 12 is here, and if you’re anything like me, the annual let’s-all-start-at-noon 16-game smackdown is your favorite Saturday of the season. There are ECAC bowls and makeup games too, but in all honesty, the Walnut and Bronze is what we play (or watch) for, and one of the 32 teams in the field will be in Salem on Dec. 20 hoisting it.

You might not need an expert to tell you that the No. 1 team in the D3football.com Top 25 is expected to win it all. But expected outcomes in the first-round matchups are less certain, especially if your vision is clouded by the love of a particular team or the lack of knowledge of much outside your home conference.

It is with that in mind that Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps and I give you our playoff score predictions. These are not “lines,” and this is not a contest between the three of us. It’s an experiment in expectation vs. outcome.

Simply put, the three of us separately guesstimate what Saturday’s 16 final scores will be. In some cases, our expectations will be remarkably similar. In others, they’ll differ. Everything the three of us think will happen won’t, but at least you’ll know a stunning result when you see it.

MOUNT UNION (East) BRACKET
No. 8 Randolph-Macon at No. 1 Mount Union
Keith: Mount Union, 44-7
Ryan: Mount Union, 63-7
Pat: Mount Union, 63-6

No. 5 Lycoming at No. 4 Hobart
Keith: Lycoming, 13-12
Ryan: Lycoming, 24-14
Pat: Hobart, 14-10

No. 6 Plymouth State at No. 3 Cortland State
Keith: Cortland State, 24-13
Ryan: Cortland State, 31-17
Pat: Cortland State, 32-14

No. 7 Curry at No. 2 Ithaca
Keith: Ithaca, 42-21
Ryan: Ithaca, 42-13
Pat: Ithaca, 48-7

NORTH CENTRAL (North) BRACKET
No. 8 Thomas More at No. 1 North Central
Keith: North Central, 33-10
Ryan: North Central, 31-21
Pat: North Central, 45-14

No. 5 Franklin at No. 4 Otterbein
Keith: Otterbein, 30-27
Ryan: Otterbein, 37-14
Pat: Otterbein, 35-20

No. 6 Wabash at No. 3 Case Western Reserve
Keith: Case Western Reserve, 15-12
Ryan: Wabash, 34-28
Pat: Wabash, 35-28

No. 7 Wheaton at No. 2 Trine
Keith:Wheaton, 27-24
Ryan: Wheaton, 24-23
Pat: Wheaton, 38-21

WILLAMETTE (West) BRACKET
No. 2 Occidental at No. 1 Willamette
Keith: Willamette, 34-23
Ryan: Willamette, 31-17
Pat: Willamette, 41-27

No. 6 St. John’s at No. 5 UW-Whitewater
Keith: UW-Whitewater, 28-14
Ryan: UW-Whitewater, 17-13
Pat: UW-Whitewater, 24-14

No. 7 Wartburg at No. 4 UW-Stevens Point
Keith: UW-Stevens Point, 14-13
Ryan: Wartburg, 21-14
Pat: UW-Stevens Point, 17-3

No. 8 Aurora at No. 3 Monmouth
Keith: Monmouth, 38-20
Ryan: Monmouth, 42-31
Pat: Monmouth, 30-13

MILLSAPS (South) BRACKET
No. 8 LaGrange at No. 1 Millsaps
Keith: Millsaps, 49-17
Ryan: Millsaps, 45-10
Pat: Millsaps, 63-3

No. 6 Christopher Newport at No. 5 Washington & Jefferson
Keith: W&J, 28-21
Ryan: W&J, 34-31
Pat: W&J, 24-21

No. 7 Wesley at No. 4 Muhlenberg
Keith: Wesley, 21-20
Ryan: Wesley, 31-20
Pat: Wesley, 31-23

No. 3 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor
Keith: Hardin-Simmons, 20-18
Ryan: Hardin-Simmons, 27-24
Pat: Hardin-Simmons, 38-35

Anyone who wants to average the scores to come up with a composite “expectation,” go right ahead.

Triple Take: Final Exam

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Pride is on the line in some of the division’s best rivalries, and 18 of the 32 playoff bids need to be sorted out and earned. What do we really need to say to get you hyped up for Week 11?

We brought in a former Thomas More quarterback, Kevin Niehus, to take snaps along with Triple Take regulars Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan. Here’s what the trio thought you’d be wise to look forward to on Saturday:

Game of the Week
Kevin’s take: 50th Annual Cortaca Jug Game, Ithaca at Cortland State. Barring an upset of St. John Fisher, Ithaca needs this win to stay in the conversation for a playoff bid. Standing in their way is a SUNY-Cortland team looking to cap off an undefeated regular season at home, and put itself in position for a regional top seed. Incredibly, nine of the past 11 games have come down to the final two minutes of the game and this year’s version should be more of the same.
Pat’s take: St. John’s at Carleton. The former quarterback against his former coach. A team whose strength is throwing the ball, against a team whose strength is defending the pass. The Johnnies just faced a team with a lot of offensive weapons and handled them well, defeating Augsburg 28-21. Except Carleton won’t completely abandon the rush. The all-time series is unanimous in St. John’s favor, a perfect 25-0, with scores of 56-14, 55-7, 64-7 and 70-7. This will not be like those games. Carleton is certainly in uncharted territory, however, with its destiny in its own hands in Week 11.
Keith’s take: No. 17 Ithaca at No. 7 Cortland State. Pandemonium describes Cortaca Jug even in an off year. This is anything but. The 8-1 Bombers are playing for their playoff lives. The 9-0 Red Dragons are already in the 32-team field, but can keep their rivals out and cap an undefeated regular season at the same time. It doesn’t get much better than this.

Which rivalry game will be the most exciting?
Kevin’s take: Bridge Bowl — Mount St. Joseph at Thomas More. It’s hard to pick against a game that is expected to draw 12,000 people (Monon Bell), but these are two schools are bitter, close rivals — separated by 11 miles and the Ohio River. If you live, have lived or spent time in Cincinnati, you know there’s a natural rivalry between residents of Ohio and Kentucky. Heck, they put the Greater Cincinnati Airport (CVG as Pat knows it) in Northern Kentucky! Both teams are coming off surprising losses last week, and with the Lions missing the playoffs for the first time since 2003, this is the postseason for MSJ. Thomas More Head Coach Jim Hilvert helped lead Mount St. Joseph to the top of the Heartland Conference as defensive coordinator and his team won the PAC in this, his second year.
Pat’s take: The Monon Bell game, DePauw at Wabash. I’ve been lucky to be at a lot of games with big crowds this year, but I expect this one to take the cake. This might be my only chance to see this game because I usually have to stay close to home in Week 11, so it better be a good one. But even if it isn’t a great game on the field, it’s better than watching it in a sports bar in Alexandria, Va., like the last time I saw it live. It’s the 115th meeting, and Wabash leads 53-52 with nine ties. DePauw has the Bell after upsetting Wabash 24-21 last season. Looking forward to it.
Keith’s take: The Game. Cortaca Jug, Muhlenberg-Moravian and Monon Bell should all be right up there. But the idea of Randolph-Macon spoiling Hampden-Sydney’s Pool C hopes and backing into the playoffs (with a Catholic loss to Bridgewater as well) is sure to have the classy-but-crazy crowd at H-SC in a frenzy. Conversely, the Tigers, often jobbed out of Pool C spots either because of weak schedules or the misfortune of being a shallow team in a deep pool, finally earning an at-large bid would be nice to see. Begrudgingly, of course. (Who am I, and what have I done with that R-MC graduate, you ask?)

Surprisingly close game
Kevin’s take: Washington & Jefferson at Waynesburg. Waynesburg has not played up to expectations in 2008, for many reasons. A win against W&J would move much of the disappointment to the background. There has been some talk among fans of W&J about the Presidents not playing well in pressure situations. They have the loss to North Carolina Wesleyan in Round 1 last year and Thomas More this year to point to. The Presidents must win and then hope for some help to even get in on the discussion of the playoff committee. No doubt, this is another pressure game.
Pat’s take: No. 2 North Central at Elmhurst. I say this because Elmhurst has had a pretty good season and with former North Central coordinator Tim Lester at the helm, the Bluejays have a shot to at least get into the playoff conversation on Saturday night. At the beginning of the season, with a late coaching change, who’d have thought that Elmhurst would be gunning for an 8-2 record?
Keith’s take: Austin at Trinity (Texas). As we saw last week’s it’s not easy to keep the intensity up after your conference title hopes are dashed. I don’t think the Kangaroos are going to win, but Trinity could have a little trouble getting ramped up.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Kevin’s take: No. 13 UW-Stevens Point. The last three games for the Pointers have been decided by a total of three points, including a 34-33 OT win at home against UW-Oshkosh, who’s 1-5 in the WIAC entering the final weekend. The run has to come up “snake eyes” at some point, doesn’t it?
Keith’s take: No. 14 Otterbein. There are quite a few dangerous games for ranked teams this week, from No. 2 North Central at Elmhurst to No. 25 Redlands hosting Cal Lutheran. Forced to choose, the possibility of the Cardinals pulling a Wheaton/Trinity and going from unbeaten playoff lock to out of the field with consecutive losses is real. John Carroll beat Thomas More and Capital during a 5-1 start, and is now trying to salvage a season barreling toward .500. These teams played a triple-overtime thriller last season, but a better reason to pick the Blue Streaks? In Kickoff ‘08, yours truly pegged Otterbein as the most unlikely playoff teams. So yeah, sorry about the jinx guys.
Pat’s take: No. 7 Cortland State. Ithaca just has too much to play for, and although the Bombers’ health is in question, motivation will not be. Not with the playoffs on the line. Not with the Cortaca Jug at stake. Not with a chance to make the bracketologists’ night hellish.

They’ll be on your radar
Kevin’s take: Ohio Northern (for next season). The Polar Bears’ first three opponents have a combined record of 26-1 going into week 11. Not only did they lose these three games, but they also had to deal with some key injuries. After starting out 0-4, the players have responded to Dean Paul’s staff and if they beat a Wilmington team that lately has been playing pretty good football of their own, Ohio Northern will finish third in the OAC. The players coming back from injury will help create some depth, a very important part of a good OAC team and the team could build on a very positive ending to 2008.
Pat’s take: Washington U. The Bears tried to get on the radar earlier in the season with a win at Wittenberg, but threw it away with three consecutive losses. Now at 5-4, the Bears haven’t had a non-winning season this decade, and Wash. U. can also clinch a share of the UAA title with a win and spoil any shot Case has of a home game in the playoffs.
Keith’s take: UW-La Crosse. You thought the 3-6 Eagles ceased to be relevant after their dreadful 0-5 start? Joke’s on you, Jack. Against No. 13 UW-Stevens Point, a team that’s won three consecutive games by a point and six by three or fewer, La Crosse carries with it the hopes of playoff teams from coast to coast. Redlands, RPI, Washington & Jefferson and Hampden-Sydney will all be big fans on Saturday. An Eagles defeat of the Pointers could give UW-Whitewater the WIAC title, which would open up an extra spot in Pool C. Also, I’ll be watching Whittier to see if it can duplicate the 67-61 Week 11, last-game-of-the-regular season-literally.

Who will have the least momentum entering the playoffs?
Kevin’s take: I hate to say it and I’m probably going to take some flak for this, but.. Potentially, it could be Thomas More. They lost on the road to an average Geneva last weekend, after clinching the PAC title the Saturday before. This week will tell us quite a bit about the Saints. Thomas More beat an undefeated MSJ team in 2006’s regular season finale — so it’s happened before during this series. Rod Huber’s Lions would love to return the favor on Saturday. If the Saints don’t beat Mount St. Joe, Coach Hilvert and his staff will have their hands full trying to build this team back up in time for a road playoff game.
Pat’s take: No. 9 Wesley. Coming off back-to-back games against first-year program Lake Erie and No. 232 Gallaudet, it’s tough to be prepared for a playoff game.
Keith’s take: Cortland State. Least momentum? Whichever team loses on Saturday? Barring that, whichever one has the majority of players who helped earn a bid healthy. Forced to choose, and with the obvious options either locked in via Pool A or a possibility not to make it in Pool C, Cortland is all that’s left. There aren’t too many teams who can lose this weekend and go into the postseason cold.

Which conference frontrunner is most likely to play itself out of the postseason?
Kevin’s take: Ferrum. Despite Christopher Newport’s lack of a passing game (they average 107 yards through the air/per game), Ferrum will have their hands full in Newport News. Fixing the Panthers’ defense a week after giving up 600 total yards and 41 points on Senior Day and having to face Christopher Newport in a playoff atmosphere at POMOCO Stadium is too much to expect Ferrum to overcome.
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher. Barring a massive retooling over the bye week, St. John Fisher has a lot of question marks. How did they give up 35 at home to Springfield? How did they only score 17 on Utica? Why am I asking you all these questions?
Keith’s take: Albright. It’s tough to pick against frontrunners; that’s why they’re frontrunners. And a team that is not yet in can’t really play itself out; but I get the point. No one leading their conference has a tougher assignment than winning at Delaware Valley, bottom line.

Triple Take: As it gets late, the slate looks great

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Rivalries. Rankings. Conference titles. Playoff berths. At this point in the season, in Week 10 of 11 in the regular season, so much is on the line that very little needs to be said about what kind of week it is. So without further ado, Gordon Mann, Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan peer into their clouded crystal balls to give you an idea what might happen on Saturday:

Game of the Week
Gordon’s take: Rowan vs. No. 21 Montclair State. This one has the feel of previous showdowns when the Profs and Red Hawks played for the NJAC title and an NCAA playoff time. Cortland State took the first prize off the table but the later is still up for grabs. With the long list of one-loss teams, neither can afford to pick up a second. Montclair has the top defense in the conference (13.1 points per game) and Rowan the second (18.2) so don’t expect a shootout.
Pat’s take: Hampden-Sydney at Huntingdon. Nearly an elimination game, this is a rematch of a contest that was a seven-point game for most of the second half in Virginia last year. HSC is not in a great position to get an at-large bid at the moment and needs to beat regionally ranked Huntingdon to get into the South Region rankings itself.
Keith’s take: No. 25 Trine at Adrian. Between the rivalries and clashes of top 25 teams I highlighted in Around the Nation, there are plenty to choose from. I took the Thunder-Bulldogs because both No. 1 Mount Union and No. 12 Otterbein will have a path to the postseason no matter what happens Saturday. But of Trine and Adrian, one is head to the playoffs, forever to be remembered as the 2008 MIAA champs. The other’s fate is to close out a pretty good season in Week 11 and turn in the pads.

Surprisingly close game
Gordon’s take: Hartwick at Springfield. The Hawks still are in the Empire 8 title hunt while this season has been a struggle for the 2-6 Pride. And Hartwick’s defense has enabled its potent offense to put weaker teams away by comfortable margins. But this is the home finale for Springfield, including three senior offensive linemen. Look for the Pride to show some, um, pride and keep this close.
Pat’s take: Ursinus at No. 6 Muhlenberg. I’m picturing the Ursinus team that went on the road and won at Alfred making another appearance. Since the Bears’ only other wins since then are against Juniata and McDaniel, a combined 3-14, it makes it a tough sell, though.
Keith’s take: Augustana at No. 2 North Central. I have a bad feeling about this one for North Central, and perhaps not for any logical reason. The 6-2 Vikings have been hot and the Cardinals have everything to lose. With a conference title, playoff spot and perhaps a No. 1 seed in North Central’s grasp, the pressure could become overwhelming, the play tight and the game way too close for comfort.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Gordon’s take: No. 14 UW-Stevens Point. Trine is my first pick but I’ll save them for later. UW-Stevens Point has certainly made things exciting for themselves and the conference. Back-to-back one-point wins keep the Pointers in control of their own playoff destiny, but how many times can they do it? And can they do it on the road against UW-Eau Claire?
Pat’s take: No. 2 North Central. I’m going about as far up the poll as one reasonably can here, yes. Augustana looks like it’s getting the hang of the offense, going 28-for-41 through the air in their past two games (not counting a 13-for-15 in the North Park game).
Keith’s take: No. 15 Occidental. If the Tigers lost 67-61 to a 4-5 Whittier team when the playoffs were in their grasp last season, perhaps a stumble against 2-5 Pomona-Pitzer isn’t far-fetched. Consistency is the name of the game, and Occidental, playing at home for the first time since Oct. 4, must demonstrate it.

They’ll be on your radar
Gordon’s take: Husson. With a win against Becker, the Eagles will finish the season 7-0 against Division III opponents and stand on the brink of making Wesley fans very unhappy. Case Western takes one of three Pool B bids by winning out. Huntingdon is already ahead of Wesley in the regional rankings and seems a safe bet to stay that way unless the Hawks lose. There have been stranger playoff picks than Husson — okay, picks that are just strange — so don’t count out Husson or idle Northwestern (Minn.) as the third team selected.
Pat’s take: Adrian. This is a matchup of two teams on a roll, and with Adrian hosting, with the conference title on the line, I’m going with the home team. The score comparisons are fairly even … if you throw out the Hope and Kalamazoo results.
Keith’s take: Trinity (Conn). A win against 1-6 rival Wesleyan and the Bantams finish their fourth undefeated season since 2003. We’ll never know how this dynasty compares to others in Division III, but they at least deserve a little attention for the feat if they in fact pull it off this weekend.

Who has the hardest road to clinching a share of a conference title: Ithaca against Alfred, North Central against Augustana, or Adrian against Trine?
Gordon’s take: Trine. The Thunder have played a lot of close games and face an opponent that has quietly rolled through MIAA play. As a point of comparison, Hope lost to Trine by 1 and Adrian by 36. Trine rushes for 194.5 yards per game on the ground and holds opponents to 53 rushing yards per game. That’s second in the conference — guess who’s first in both categories.
Pat’s take: Ithaca. It’s the first home game in 35 days for Alfred, in case the Saxons need extra incentive. The Saxons have been close to the playoffs in recent years and been left out, even, dare we say, snubbed, so they know that they need to win the conference title.
Keith’s take: North Central. As I said, Augustana for some reason sounds like trouble to me. The Cardinals have to fight not only a 6-2 team that’s figuring its spread offense out, but also the enormous weight of expectations.

Which winless team earns its first victory?
Gordon’s take: Buffalo State. Man, hard to believe the Bengals are even in this conversation. I remember making a long drive on the New York State Thruway to Buffalo with Ray Martel to cover a game there with postseason implications. This one’s for you, Ray — I’m taking Buff State.
Pat’s take: Maranatha Baptist. They are outmanned by almost every Division III team but have put together two decent performances the past two weeks against teams a combined 7-9. A win could turn into two before the season’s over and give this struggling program something to work from in the offseason. … And Gordon, thanks for remembering the good-old days, when we had a D3football.com Game of the Week and had several thrillers in a row.
Keith’s take: Buffalo State. It’s one thing to say a winless teams needs a victory. It’s quite another for them to have a chance to get it against another winless team. Morrisville State’s transition to Division III hasn’t been smooth and will get less so when the Bengals take out their frustrations.

Come Saturday evening, how many teams will be tied at the top of the MIAC?
Gordon’s take: Three. St. John’s over Augsburg, Gustavus over St. Olaf and Concordia-Moorhead narrowly over Carleton. That makes three teams 5-2. Whatever the opposite of a stone cold lock is, that’s one of them.
Pat’s take: Two. I see Augsburg over St. John’s, Concordia-Moorhead over Carleton, Gustavus Adolphus over St. Olaf, leaving Concordia and Gustavus at 5-2. Though giving Jerry Haugen and the SJU defense a bye week to prepare for Augsburg makes me doubt that first pick.
Keith’s take: Two. With a possible six-way tie on the table, and the possible invocation of the dreaded Rose Bowl Rule tiebreaker, it’s more like wishful thinking that the MIAC can narrow itself down to an either-or scenario for Week 11.

Which long-running rivalry has the closest game?
Gordon’s take: Amherst-Williams. The Lord Jeffs and Ephs are 5-2 and will be as amped as possible for the 123rd installment of their rivalry. Williams looks like the favorite on paper but Amherst’s home field advantage should even things out.
Pat’s take: Kalamazoo-Albion. The 122nd meeting but the first for Jamie Zorbo as head coach. This was a 16-14 loss for Kalamazoo in Zorbo’s senior year of 1999, when Kalamazoo went 2-4 in the league and Albion went 5-1. And as an assistant at DePauw last season, he saw first-hand how to get a team up for a rivalry game.
Keith’s take: Bowdoin-Colby. This is it for the Polar Bears and White Mules, who meet for the 120th time since 1892. Bowdoin will be looking to come away with an outright title in the CBB rivalry that also includes fellow Maine school Bates.