Category Archives: Triple Take

Triple Take: Some still to debut

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Squaring off against teammates during camp is one thing, but one of the most interesting things to watch is a team’s improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, after it gets that first real game under its belt. Do these squads have an advantage over teams that are debuting this week? Many would argue so, and there’s certainly some evidence of it in past seasons.

But, of course, there’s more to it than that. Below, check out who Pat, Keith and I are keeping an eye on this week:

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 4 Hardin-Simmons at Linfield. For the Cowboys, the wear and tear of a long road trip could be balanced by the one game they already have in the bank, compared with their debuting opponent. Last week, HSU proved its determination and what kind of team it has the potential to be once all elements on offense, defense and special teams come together. I never take a Northwest Conference team for granted, but with as much as HSU has going for it, I hope this is a more balanced pick than my choice for last Saturday’s Game of the Week.
Keith’s take: No. 7 UW-Stevens Point at Central. The bigger names will be in Oregon, and a nod to the Cowboys and Wildcats for keeping their high-profile series going. The Pointers’ visit to Pella, Iowa however might tell us more about where this season is headed. UW-SP got a early-season test against a quality Division III opponent, something that seems difficult for WIAC schools to do. If they show well, they could be a team that defeats Whitewater again. Same with Central, national observers want to see if this is a team that will regain its place among IIAC contenders (likely) and cause trouble in the West Region playoff picture.
Pat’s take: No. 18 Montclair State at Wilkes. This is especially for those who like defense. It’s the third year in a row the teams have played and nobody has scored more than 14 points in either of the two previous meetings. Wilkes set the tone with a 14-12 win against Muhlenberg in Week 1 and is trying to shake off back-to-back 4-6 seasons after going 11-1 in 2006.

Surprisingly close game
Ryan’s take: No. 8 Ithaca at Union. The Bombers can’t let their 45-0 drubbing on St. Lawrence get to their heads. In almost every category, Union will be an improvement over Ithaca’s Week 1 matchup — and if Matt Scalice & Co. can’t put the brakes on Hobart rusher Chris Coney, points will start racking up fast.
Keith’s take: Cal Lutheran at Willamette. Just because they’re fuming from last week’s upset, don’t think the Bearcats win easy. The Kingsmen have to travel from Malibu up the coast to Oregon, but they’re bringing 18 starters on the trip, including quarterback Jericho Toilolo. A seven-win team last season, Cal Lutheran will throw a scare into Willamette.
Pat’s take: Buffalo State at St. John Fisher. If it were a game of fan morale, I would suspect Buffalo State wins in a blowout. But Fisher is the better team on paper and is playing at home. I just don’t think they are going to handle Buff State the way they should. Fisher still wins but … it’s surprisingly close.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 17 Hobart. Here’s another team that will get dogged by the fact that it is debuting against a tough opponent that already has a game — and a win — under its belt. The Statesmen’s defense will have to play one of its best games of the season against the 1-2-3 punch of Mitchell, O’Connor and Lord, which will feel more like a 7-8-9 punch by the time the day is over.
Keith’s take: No. 11 St. John’s. It’s never wise to go against the Johnnies, but if they needed 14 points in the final 8:38 to get past UW-River Falls in Week 1, we’ve got to assume UW-Eau Claire — four spots higher in the WIAC preseason poll and three more wins last season — will be more trouble. Not that football usually goes as you’d expect. The Blugolds took a 14-0 lead nine minutes into their opener against NAIA Bethel (Tenn.) last week and went on to win, so the Johnnies don’t even have the ‘played one more game’ advantage.
Pat’s take: None. I think Franklin will struggle, but losing to Butler wouldn’t really be an upset in my mind. Well, maybe Montclair State. Or Wheaton. Or St. John’s. But I don’t have that lock feeling about any of them the way I did last week.

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: Grove City. The Wolverines went toe-to-toe with possibly the Centennial’s best team last week, even leading by a hair early in the fourth quarter. With Carnegie Mellon on tap for Saturday, Grove City has another chance to showcase its massive multi-pronged offense — only this time for a win.
Keith’s take: Curry. Mostly because I’ll be there. But also because the NEFC (whose schedule also features Endicott playing RPI, Coast Guard taking on rival Merchant Marine and Fitchburg State introducing Anna Maria to the world of established Division III programs) is gaining in stature and has a MAC contender (Widener) coming to Milton. Play tough opponents and we will come.
Pat’s take: Beloit. The Buccaneers won’t end up being contenders in the Midwest Conference, to be sure, not ahead of Monmouth and St. Norbert, but Beloit is keyed on this week’s game against Carroll. Beloit lost 10-0 on the road last year, a game which kept the program from its first winning season since 2002. But Beloit at 2-0 for the first time this century? Could happen.

Team playing its opener you’re most curious about
Ryan’s take: No. 16 Wabash. Yeah, I’m playing the homer card, but for good reason: The Little Giants had some key holes to fill this year on the defensive line and will be going up a Denison team that ran for 275 yards in its opener. Not to mention that as Wabash itself tries to establish a ground game, it will face two solid linebackers in Bill Aukerman and Taylor Dlouhy — with the Little Giants possibly being forced into a more one-dimensional offense with the pass.
Keith’s take: No. 5 Wheaton. Eager to see how the Thunder perform against Bethel for a few reasons. First, a top-half CCIW team vs. top-half MIAC team is usually going to be a good game. Second, we hear change is afoot at Wheaton, although we’re sworn to secrecy until Saturday afternoon. Third, after Ohio Northern upset conference rival North Central — not to mention the apple cart — the Thunder is playing for CCIW pride. A win probably makes Wheaton the highest-ranked conference team until at least the Augustana game Oct. 10.
Pat’s take: No. 7 UW-Stevens Point. Did the Pointers save all their emotion for the UW-Whitewater game last year and forget to play the rest of the season? They needed overtime at home to beat Oshkosh, beat Eau Claire by one and then lost at home to Wartburg. They do have 17 starters back, including 10 on offense, but they could stand for that offense to be a little more effective, especially on the ground.

The MAC and MIAC are undefeated; which of these two conferences comes closest to maintaining that torch in Week 2?
Ryan’s take: The MAC. There isn’t a game on this week’s schedule that isn’t winnable, but the tough slate (including Curry, Montclair State, Alfred, Rowan) should be worth a lot of recognition and prove that the conference is again ready to be mentioned among the nation’s big boys. A 6-2 outing is more likely, but an 8-0 result isn’t out of the question.
Keith’s take: The MIAC. I realize this goes against the St. John’s pick above, but I also realize how Ryan carefully worded the question. “Comes closest” … I honestly see the MAC struggling with a slate of Montclair State, Rowan, Curry, Alfred, Kean, Springfield, Western Connecticut and Ursinus more than the MIAC against its nine opponents.
Pat’s take: The MAC. The MIAC has at least four very losable games and probably only three locks. If Gustavus Adolphus, St. John’s, Bethel and Augsburg all win, I’d be surprised.

Which potential shootout will tally the most points from its two teams combined?
Ryan’s take: Gettysburg at Hampden-Sydney. In Week 1, these two teams combined for 97 points and 1,199 yards. And the teams they earned those stats again hardly qualify as pushovers. The Tigers should emerge from this OK Corral the victors, but it won’t be easy.
Keith’s take: Carthage at Hope. If you’re looking for fireworks, one could do worse than a game that ended 70-46 last season. The Red Men have quarterback Evan Jones back under center, while the Flying Dutchmen have a new QB, but eight other offensive starters back and a game under their belts.
Pat’s take: St. Scholastica at Maranatha Baptist. What? Ryan took the obvious answer already. But a young program against a undermanned but spirited program could be quite entertaining.

Triple Take, Week 1: Welcome to a new season

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Though Week 1 features only one game between Top 25 teams, polling is hardly the only way to pick which games could be among the most significant and interesting.

From battles halfway across the country to cross-town rivalries, every team opening this weekend enters the season with the highest expectations. For some, such as Mount Union, those expectations are nothing short of a national championship. For others, such as Wittenberg, they may include trying to make it though the season injury-free. And yet others, such as Millsaps, might be anxious to see how they perform after graduating a superstar athlete.

Each week, Friday’s Triple Take — which will feature a roundtable of panelists consisting of D3football.com Editor and Publisher Pat Coleman, Managing Editor and National Columnist Keith McMillan, and Senior Editor and Mid-Atlantic Columnist Ryan Tipps — will try to predict some what’s to come on Saturday, while rooting out unique games and teams to keep an eye on, among other things.

The bar is at different levels for different teams; success can be found in many forms. Not every team this year will fall in line with their expectations, but the fun part is watching them try.

To comment on the Daily Dose, you’ll need to register. There’s a link for that on the bottom of the right-hand rail of this page.

— Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 20 Christopher Newport at No. 9 Wesley. The threat of tropical weather ended last year’s meeting before it ever got started. The anticipation, though, remains. Wesley graduated many of its stars from the past couple of years, including three 2008 starting linebackers. What’s that mean for CNU? Well, the window may be open just enough to squeeze in an upset, especially with a bigger, stronger Tunde Ogun at running back.
Keith’s take: Whitworth at No. 5 Hardin-Simmons. I don’t really like to suggest a Week 1 game is must-win or has playoff implications, but with the visiting Pirates following the opener with games against Redlands (7-2 in ‘08), No. 8 Willamette (11-1) and Linfield (6-3) among its first six, and with the Cowboys going to Linfield next, then playing Louisiana College (7-3), Mississippi College (5-5 with star QB injured) and No. 3 UMHB (12-2), the winner here banks a key victory. The loser faces an uphill climb.
Pat’s take: Millsaps at Mississippi College. I’m looking forward to a good chapter in the Backyard Brawl history books, with Mississippi College having the upper hand in terms of experience this time around.

Surprisingly close game
Ryan’s take: Thomas More at John Carroll. The 41-14 drubbing enjoyed by the Blue Streaks last year likely won’t be repeated. And it’s not because JCU is too much worse for wear. Instead, it’s because the Saints have a lot of returners who got a sampling of the postseason in 2008 and have a renewed drive to get back there in ‘09.
Keith’s take: Morrisville State at Hartwick. The Mustangs were 1-9 last season and the Hawks were 7-3, but Hartwick is bound to look different without quarterback Jason Boltus and wide receiver Jack Phelan powering the nation’s second-most-prolific offense. Morrisville State returns seven starters from a defense that can only be better after giving up 38.2 points per game this season. The Hawks might sputter a little as new quarterback Brian Radley gets his feet wet.
Pat’s take: No. 8 Willamette at Concordia-Moorhead. This is a game I really wish I could be at. I could make the 480-mile round trip, but I did that sort of thing last year a lot and I was pretty burnt out by the time the playoffs rolled around. Got to pace myself better this year. In terms of this game, Willamette has to win some games to prove to me that it can do it without Merben Woo, and perhaps more importantly, Grant Leslie. The guy threw 19 touchdowns last year and just three interceptions and Ryan Whitcomb, this year’s starter, threw three TD passes in 2007 when the team went 4-6.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 19 Franklin. It’s a grisly prospect for the Grizzlies. All-America quarterback Chad Rupp is gone — along with more than half of last year’s starters on offense. The defensive depletion is even gloomier. This is not the team I’d prefer to take into a game against any OAC team, let alone Baldwin-Wallace.
Keith’s take: No. 19 Franklin. I don’t mean it as a knock on the strength of the Grizzlies’ potential longevity, as recruiting is generally pretty fertile after consecutive playoff appearances. But I’d be doing a disservice by ignoring how talented the seniors Franklin lost were and just assuming the program picks up where it left off.
Pat’s take: I might have given it away earlier, but No. 8 Willamette.

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: Hardin-Simmons. The Cowboys have the potential to be an undefeated team this regular season — and well into the playoffs. Getting there won’t be easy (starting this weekend against Whitworth), but if the offensive line comes together and gives quarterback Justin Feaster time to make decisions, this will be a tough team to corral.
Keith’s take: No. 17 Wartburg. Iowa’s orange and black-clad Knights head north to take on their Green brethren at St. Norbert. And while Wartburg has opened with a top MWC team (either Monmouth or SNC) three seasons running and has yet to win by fewer than 20, in the opener I’d still like to see a team closer to the one that pushed UW-Whitewater in last season’s playoffs than the one that needed overtime to beat 2-8 Dubuque.
Pat’s take: Adrian. Wins against OAC teams are hard to come by in the non-conference schedule. Adrian will have to do it without two-time MIAA offensive MVP Troy Niblock, but has an experienced replacement at quarterback and a good number back on defense going into the opener at home against Capital.

Which 2008 playoff team will have the rockiest opening week?
Ryan’s take: Willamette. For an NWC team, traveling far and wide is hardly foreign. But going 1,500 miles in Week 1 can’t be easy. Plus, with how much the Bearcats will have to reload, beating Concordia-Moorhead could be a challenge.
Keith’s take: LaGrange. It’s worth noting that Trine needed a fourth-quarter rally to win its opener at Manchester on Thursday night, because if not, the Thunder might already have this one sewn up. I look at the Panthers here because of the internal struggle players have to respect their opponents. It’s easy for LaGrange to think of itself as a 9-2 team from last year and B-SC as a 3-7 group and forget it needed two late Drew Carter-to-Devin Bilings touchdown passes, the last with 23 seconds left, to beat those Panthers, 34-31, in last year’s opener.
Pat’s take: Curry. They’re a little paranoid up in Milton, Mass., where they wouldn’t even commit to a style of offense on the record or off the record two weeks before the season started. They must think Bentley is pretty good.

Which bubble team has the best chance of breaking into the next Top 25 poll?
Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley. I’m a little surprised the Aggies aren’t part of the top two bits already. A win against Johns Hopkins, one of the favorites to win the Centennial, should give Del Val the kind of credibility that was so sporadic (and, ultimately, elusive) in ‘08. With the Blue Jays able to crow about a highly potent run game, led on the line by a preseason All-American, a Del Val win would truly be sweet success.
Keith’s take: Millsaps. St. John Fisher is also receiving votes at “No. 31” and would be a lock to surge into the top 25 with an upset of No. 1 Mount Union, but I’m going to go ahead and assume that by “best chance” we mean “most realistic chance.” In which case, a Majors win and one ranked team’s loss would seem to move them in from the 26 spot.
Pat’s take: Trinity (Texas). I actually don’t feel strongly about any of the teams in the 26-32 range. Trine has already struggled this week, I think Millsaps may well lose, Salisbury is playing a team it should beat and beyond that, I think teams are pretty far off.

Most significant game against a non-Division III opponent.
Ryan’s take: Curry at Bentley. The Colonels raised eyebrows last year with a postseason win for the perennially discounted NEFC. Have fortunes faded since that November day? A test will come against Division II’s Bentley, which already has one game — a win — under its belt this season. A victory for Curry should not be taken lightly.
Keith’s take: Pace at Salisbury. The Gulls take on a team picked to finish in the mid-to-lower part of the Division II Northeast-10, as do Curry, Plymouth State and Worcester State. The difference in significance for Salisbury, however, is that without an automatic playoff bid to chase, and with six Division III perennial winners on the schedule, a strong start is imperative.
Pat’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater at Dickinson State. The Blue Hawks were a preseason No. 15 in the NAIA coaches poll, though they lost to Rocky Mountain College last week. That gives them a game under their belts and a home game while Whitewater takes a 12-hour bus ride since no D-III team will play them. This could spell trouble for our defending runner-up.

Triple Take: Stagg Bowl predictions

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Predicting the Stagg Bowl has now reached double digits.

Dating to 1999, this marks the 10th consecutive time that we have made predictions for the championship game, though it hasn’t always been with this broad of a forecasting base. To cap the season, we have several voices leading off the discussion about Saturday’s game.

Last year, Tom Pattison of Warhawkfootball.com and Matt Barnhart of Bridgewaterfootball.com were our “champion” pickers, each foreshadowing a 27-24 Whitewater victory. The actual final score was 31-21.

Previous years’ picks: 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007

This year is unique in several ways, and with that comes unique ways of looking at
the matchup. The takes:

Pat Coleman, D3football.com
I haven’t had a great postseason of picks after a good early start, and often it seems to be from picking UW-Whitewater wrong. Last year we saw the key to beating Mount Union, and part of it is containing Nate Kmic. One thing I’ve seen from the Warhawks this year is the ability to limit, if not eliminate, yards after contact. And that’s despite starting two new linebackers. If the game becomes a battle of the secondaries, I like Whitewater’s chances. If it’s a battle of the kicking game, then I like Whitewater even more. But I worry about the quarterback play when I make this prediction. Mount Union clearly has a decided edge in Greg Micheli, with both his arm and his legs. I’m not big into cliches about wanting it more, or stuff like that. I just can foresee UW-Whitewater doing enough things right to win this game.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 20

Keith McMillan, D3football.com
I’d like to call this one a toss-up, but I’m not sure it is one. Unless Anthony White and the UW-Whitewater defensive line can cause some disruption among Luke Summers and the Mount Union offensive line (yeah, I just name-dropped linemen), it seems like the Mount Union offense will hum as usual. It will be physical, and the Warhawks will get their licks in, but if they defend their title, it would be a mild surprise to me. If all else is equal, the combination of the most efficient passer in college football history and the leading rusher in NCAA history should put Mount Union over the top.
Mount Union 38, UW-Whitewater 20

Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
So here we go again. Whitewater vs. Mount Union IV. From a Whitewater perspective, looking at the statistics of Nate Kmic, Greg Micheli and Cecil Shorts, you wonder if the Warhawks belong on the same field. Had the same feeling in ’07. A reporter from the Roanoke area repeatedly tried to get MUC head coach Larry Kehres this week to say that the Purple Raiders were out for revenge following UWW’s 31-21 win in last year’s Stagg Bowl. No dice! Kehres isn’t looking for revenge, he is looking for
his team to play error-free football, something it did not do in last year’s game. The farther you go in the playoffs, the more magnified are turnovers and missed scoring opportunities in the Red Zone. Whitewater getting back to the Stagg Bowl after losing 24 seniors and 17 starters from last year’s National Championship team is simply amazing. The team jelled early in the season and rode its defense to a share of the WIAC title. As a fifth seed, UWW needed to travel to Salem, Ore., to slow down the high octane offense of Willamette. Last week, the Hawks dominated a Mary Hardin-Baylor team that most predicted would beat Whitewater and advance to the Stagg Bowl. The Hawks possess a strong, physical, fast defense. The offense features two 1000-yard rushers for the first time in school history. They are not Justin Beaver, but they are pretty darn good! I also think Whitewater’s special teams have an advantage over MUC, lead by Jeff Schebler, NCAA Division III’s all-time leading field goal kicker. Hawks win the special teams play and force four MUC turnovers.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 21

Bret Page, former Mary Hardin-Baylor linebacker
I believe that both teams will try to set the tempo early by trying to set up and establish the run game. UWW will have a slight advantage at being more balanced and mixing in the pass. Mount Union will have to play well on defense as they seem a little small, and I think Whitewater will make them pay for that as they have proven to be very big and physical in their impressive win over UMHB this year. I think it will be a clean game as both teams are disciplined, so which ever team is able to capitalize on errors such as penalties and turnovers will have the upper hand. I think neither team will be able to count on one player to carry them through, but it will be a total team effort for both sides as they will have to mix it up to try to pull out the win. Whitewater in a close one …
UW-Whitewater 31, Mount Union 28

Gordon Mann, D3football.com
Regardless of how the Stagg Bowl turns out, Coach Lance Liepold has my vote for the D3football.com Coach of the Year. Both Mount Union and UW-Whitewater had to replace a significant portion of their starting lineups this year, but the Warhawks lost the offensive player of the year and their starting quarterback. They’ve battled through injuries, playoff road games and the toughest conference in Division III. The magnitude of that accomplishment underlines potential weaknesses going into Saturday. Last year the Warhawks had an intangible edge in that Justin Beaver was playing the last game in a spectacular college career. This year that edge slides over to Mount Union because of Nate Kmic and Greg Micheli. The situations aren’t the same but watching Mount Union stifle Wheaton when its top running back was hurt makes me wonder how effective the UW-Whitewater’s ground game will be if Levell Coppage isn’t at full strength. And while UW-Whitewater has impressive wins, they haven’t looked invincible. Remember they lost to two-loss UW-Stevens Point and had close games with Willamette and Wartburg (20-17 in fourth quarter). On the bright side for UWW, I was wrong on two of three previous matchups.
Mount Union 28, UW-Whitewater 24

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com
UW-Whitewater is proof that the whole is greater than the parts. The skill players aren’t household names like Mount Union’s Micheli or Kmic, but as a unit, the Warhawks have overcome tests of injury, travel and inexperience, to name a few. They emerged from the toughest branch of the “West” bracket, have been forcing turnovers (+13 on the season) and can put pressure on a quarterback. The biggest offensive weapon for UW-W could be dual rushers that have the potential to sustain a drive and wear down Mount’s defense. But for every score Whitewater can put up, Mount should be able to match. UW-W has proven throughout the postseason that it can stop the run, but facing a passing game as sophisticated and crisp as MUC’s may become the Achilles’ heel for the defending national champions.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 31

Frank Rossi, D3football.com
It’s a tough choice, now that the Warhawks have broken the ice with a win last year. There are some things that are consistent every year with these teams: 1) Mount Union’s offense is in tip-top shape; 2) Mount Union’s defense has proven sturdy all season; and 3) UW-Whitewater’s defense has improved all year. That leaves one question for me — but the Warhawks’ offense is not as strong as it was last year with Justin Beaver. Because of this, Mount Union unseats the defending
champions, pulling away at the end.
Mount Union 42, UW-Whitewater 24