Category Archives: Triple Take

Triple Take Week 1: First and long

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“Long” as in a long season is ahead of us, and we’re just getting started.

And we’re willing to bet that most of you have been looking forward to this moment for eight months or more. We hope that our publication, Kickoff 2011, gave you your “football fix” over the past several days. (If not, there’s still time to buy it and get an insider’s look at all 239 teams.)

From now until the Stagg Bowl, Triple Take will be a weekly forecast for the Saturday ahead. Three members of the D3football.com staff — Executive Editor Pat Coleman, Managing Editor and National Columnist Keith McMillan and Senior Editor and Mid-Atlantic Columnist Ryan Tipps — will go through a series of questions to help readers gauge what to expect on game day. We’re thinking aloud, of sorts. And in many cases, we’ll take you beyond the Top 25 teams and perhaps highlight some sleepers that weren’t otherwise on your radar.

For Week 1, here are some of the most interesting matchups nationwide:

Game of the week.
Ryan’s take: No. 10 Coe at No. 16 Hardin-Simmons. Two of the best teams from two of the best conferences in the country. That should say a lot right there. But truth be told, Coe should be near unstoppable most of this season. Any team in the country would be envious to have the kind of returning players that the Kohawks have, and with some gaps for HSU to fill (superstars at quarterback and wideout are gone), this is Coe’s game to lose.
Pat’s take: Trinity Bible at Presentation. It’s not going to be a particularly pretty game, this we know, but it will be the first Division III home game in South Dakota and Presentation might well start its football life off 1-0.
Keith’s take: No. 4 North Central at Redlands. Remember that the Bulldogs were 8-1 last year, a record that almost always gets a team in the playoffs. There are 18 starters back from that squad, though longtime quarterback Dan Selway is not one of them. Likewise, the heart of North Central’s third-best-in-the-nation defense from last year, linebacker Matt Wenger, is gone. But 15 Cardinals starters return. So we’ve got two loaded teams, and the favorite has to travel 1,750 miles from the Chicago area to the L.A. area – flights are rare for D-III teams – for a 7 p.m. PDT kickoff under the lights at Ted Runner Stadium. Heck yeah it’s a game of the week!

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: N.C. Wesleyan at No. 14 Ohio Northern. In their short history, the Bishops have been known for taking on some of the best teams they can get their hands on in non-conference play: Wesley, Hampden-Sydney, Salisbury. The list goes on, and in an era when every loss can become a compounded postseason strike against a playoff-worthy team, the Bishops are putting risk ahead of caution. Even after losing some key starters, it’s rare when they don’t come out swinging. ONU, on its end, has long been a top-tier OAC team, but they have to replace an All-Conference quarterback, rusher and receiver. That’s a hard feat to overcome.
Pat’s take: East Texas Baptist at No. 3 Wesley. I’d like to put this in the next category down but Wesley has too many weapons and is too good defensively. The Wolverines faced a dual-threat quarterback from the ASC last season in LiDarral Bailey and bottled him up (86 yards of total offense). Sed Harris seems to be a similar threat. The only question is if Shane McSweeny, who is returning from injury, can’t connect with a new receiving corps. Justin Sottilare, who led the Wesley offense to the national semifinals last year, disappeared from the Wolverines’ roster sometime this week.
Keith’s take: No. 23 UW-Stevens Point at Willamette. The Bearcats scored 33 unanswered in last season’s 33-14 season-opening win in Wisconsin, partially because the Pointers had no answer for Willamette’s Fly offense. UW-SP lost star wide receivers Jared Jenkins and Anthony Aker, and they travel to Oregon. They’re the ranked team, but I’m not sure they should be expected to win. And yet, I doubt there’s another blowout here, because defenses tend to perform much better after players and coaches have had a look at a specialty offense.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 20 Wittenberg. Most of the Tigers’ recent games against Capital were just plain ugly. That’s not to say such a result will happen again this time, but there are some definite kinks to be worked out before they can find success. It’s been more than a decade since Witt beat an OAC team — and working against the Tigers is that they are not the same team that ended 2010.
Pat’s take: No. 22 Rowan. My gut wants me to aim a little higher, such as the No. 14 spot or even the No. 3 spot, but I can’t pull the trigger. This was a close game last year at Rowan and although Rowan certainly got better over the course of the season, Lycoming peaked earlier. But in this battle of two proud programs, I take the team that won the 1998 semifinals in this rematch. One other note: Rowan played just one game on grass all of last year, beating 2-8 Brockport State. And yeah, Ryan, I’ve been to a Capital-Wittenberg game and it wasn’t pretty. But that was a long time ago.
Keith’s take: No. 15 Wartburg. There’s every reason to like the Knights, who were 10-1 last season with a scoring defense and takeaway margin in the top 10 nationally. They beat their Week 1 opponent, Monmouth, 27-7 last year, and the Scots’ star quarterback, Alex Tanney, played the whole game. So as both teams return 18 starters, it doesn’t seem logical to use Tanney’s return as a reason to think the Knights are in danger. And yet I’m going to do it. Tanney got hurt after throwing one pass in Game 2 against Grinnell, and there’s something that burns inside a player to excel when the game is taken away unexpectedly. All five offensive linemen from last year are back to give Tanney time to throw, and he’s as dangerous as any quarterback in Division III. Wartburg lost to St. Norbert in the 2009 opener, so an upset defeat against a top-shelf MWC team is totally foreseeable. If the Knights aren’t on their game Saturday, it’s likely.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Centre. You can bet that the Colonels want to avenge their 1-point loss to Hanover last year. And in a season where they might be the favorites to win the SCAC, it’ll be interesting whether they can start and stay strong through their nine-game schedule.
Pat’s take: UW-La Crosse. My only question is, will it be enough? The Eagles have the pieces to perform admirably against UW-Whitewater in the season opener but must play the Warhawks twice this season and Mary Hardin-Baylor. Throw in UW-Stevens Point and they could be the best 6-4 or 7-3 team in Division III.
Keith’s take: Salve Regina. If you read Kickoff, you might have noticed my unhealthy obsession with the NEFC’s Seahawks. Union comes to Rhode Island for the opener trying to erase memories of a rare bad season (2-7). There’s a bigger NEFC game in Week 1 too (Framingham State at Endicott), but I’m eager to see if in Year 2, the defensive-minded Bob Chesney begins to field a team that can score as well as it can slow others from scoring.

Which Thursday or Friday night game would you like to attend?
Ryan’s take: Baldwin-Wallace at Wooster. I’m sure that the Yellow Jackets would just like to forget that the last two games of 2010 even happened. And here’s their chance. I’ve pegged B-W to be the No. 2 team in the OAC this year, but I also think that Woo has an upset or two in them this fall. It probably won’t happen in Week 1, but down the line, they will sneak up on somebody.
Pat’s take: Dubuque at Augustana. This should be a nice shootout of passing offenses, with the Spartans and Mike Zweifel leading the way. The schools are not that far apart and it’s a Thursday night game, under the lights. If it weren’t a six-hour drive from here I’d go myself, but I’ll settle for live video.
Keith’s take: Adrian at Husson. I’m curious about McMurry, which is transitioning out of D-III, playing at Stephen F. Austin, but I still think I’d rather go see a Michigan-based D-III team play in Maine. There’s something unique when teams who move in different D-III circles get together. I’d appreciate both the travel opportunity and the chance for us D-III nerds to evaluate conferences against one another.

Which 2010 playoff team is going to end up wishing it had a Week 1 bye?
Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg. Few things might be more intimidating than starting a season against the big dog of the MAC, Delaware Valley. It’s not an impossible game (the Mules do have players such as All-American linebacker Pat McDonough to prop them up), but most people would probably hitch their wagon to Del Val in this situation.
Pat’s take: St. Lawrence. The Saints open with Utica after they lost every non-conference game they played last year, including a 31-13 decision to Utica later in the season, when youth is less of an excuse.
Keith’s take: St. Norbert. I guess this is a cop-out, because of course it isn’t easy to play the No. 5 team in the country out of the gate. I actually applaud the Green Knights for scheduling tough openers, and this isn’t the first time. They’ve won the non-conference game, gone 9-1 and missed the playoffs, then gone 7-3, won the MWC and gotten in. But still, if they lose the opener, they have to hope it prepared them to win the conference, because two-loss teams are always on shaky playoff ground.

Whose long losing streak is likely to end?
Ryan’s take: Guilford’s, against Greensboro. I mentioned this in my Around the Mid-Atlantic column this week, too, but I think that because the Quakers have a new coach, they also have a new reason to be excited. This week’s opponent is crosstown rival Greensboro, and Guilford’s new coach, Chris Rusiewicz, is bringing a fresh, defensive approach to a team that has lost 11 games in a row. Rusiewicz has made several changes on defense and already understands his players’ strengths and weaknesses. He’ll do a good job of playing to the strengths.
Pat’s take: Thiel’s, against Marietta. The Tomcats finally showed some signs of putting things together down the stretch after a dismal beginning to the season that also had an emotional component following the September death of freshman defensive lineman Louis Giuntini. And to those at Frostburg State and who knew and loved Derek Sheely, our condolences.
Keith’s take: Olivet’s, against Cornell. Or maybe I have that backwards. Okay, fine, someone’s long losing streak is ending here; the Comets’ 27-game streak or the Rams’s 11-game streak. Both teams have second-year coaches and most of their starters back, which isn’t always a good thing if you lost all 10 games. It’s impossible to have a read on a team before they’ve played a game. But Olivet’s at home, so I’ll give them the edge.

Share your thoughts in the comments below.

Triple Take, Stagg Bowl predictions

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Twelve years of D3football, Eleven hundred yards for Cecil, Ten Mount title winners, nine linemen clashing, eight Mount All-Regions, seven from Whitewater, six Stagg Bowl meetings, five playoff weeks, four Leipold seasons, three Warhawks rushing, two backup quarterbacks, and one walnut and bronze trophy.

It’s the season of snow and championships, and as of this writing, it seems that Salem is gearing up to welcome both. We’ve heard it said all week, but we are in the midst of the sixth-straight meeting of the Mount Union and UW-Whitewater purple powers. And as in years past, we cap our season of Triple Take predictions with a bevy of guest analysts to give you even more thoughts and insights to pore over — and more predictions to weigh.

Here’s a recap of what we said last season: 2009

And here’s what we have to say today. Come Saturday evening, one of these two teams will be having a much happier holidays than the other.

— Ryan Tipps

Pat Coleman, D3football.com executive editor
In a game filled with such unpredictability, including who will take snaps for either team, it’s hard to make a meaningful, informed prediction. In a game like this, you certainly lean on your defense, and you probably lean on your ground game. But it’s not like either backup quarterback is a pushover, as all Lee Brekke has done is go 4-0 and Matt Piloto certainly has standout skills for Mount Union. If it comes down to the running game, advantage UW-Whitewater. If it comes down to receivers against secondary, advantage Mount Union. If it comes down to pass rush, it’s a push. If it comes down to having faced and survived adversity in the playoffs, advantage UW-Whitewater. If it comes down … well, here’s my thing. I agree, like many, that Mount Union is playing better football right now. I just don’t know if that means much considering the opponents each has faced the past four weeks. And that’s my non-scientific reasoning for picking this score out of the hat.
UW-Whitewater 20, Mount Union 17

Keith McMillan, D3football.com managing editor
No reason to overthink this. A couple of things are going to be true no matter who triumphs. The best two teams in Division III, borne out on the field in five weeks of playoffs, are clashing Saturday. And each will be the best team the other has faced. That’s particularly true defensively when Mount Union is on the field against the Whitewater offense. That’s the unit the Purple Raiders have leaned on all season and it will be the one responsible for this game getting off to a slow start, scoring-wise. The winner over the five previous meetings has always scored in the 30s no matter how good the defenses looked coming in — the average score is 34-23.8 — but I think the Purple Raiders’ D holds the Warhawks in check for long enough to keep the 30s away. In the end, though, Saturday’s game follows the UW-W m.o.: Wear down a defense over the course of a game, and punish it with the running game in the fourth quarter. These Mount Union players will have their day — 28 of the 64 on the Stagg Bowl flipcard are sophomores, and will be back to Salem, undoubtedly — but Saturday will belong to those who win along the offensive and defensive lines most often, and best ‘Pound the Rock.’
UW-Whitewater 24, Mount Union 14

Gordon Mann, D3football.com deputy managing editor
While both teams have playmakers, this game comes down to the Purple powerhouses’ defenses. Both teams are too talented and too well coached for the offenses to light up the scoreboard. UW-Whitewater can generate a pass rush using its front four and has the depth to rotate different guys in for that cause. Keep an eye on freshman defensive end Loussiant Minett who has great speed around the edge. That lets the Warhawks linebackers drop back into coverage and support the secondary. Greg Arnold is a safety trapped in a small defensive end’s body or a very high level D3 linebacker — whichever you prefer. Mount Union is equally impressive up front with Lambert Budzinski. With a name like that, he was born to play defense. Both offensive lines are great, but I think the Warhawks’ line is better at doing what their offense wants to do — pound the ball with Coppage, Stanley and Anderson. The Mount offensive line gives the quarterback good protection, but I’m not sure the Purple Raiders quarterbacks can throw the ball down the field. Maybe Piloto has that ability. Or maybe Seaman does but hasn’t shown it much yet. The Warhawks don’t have anyone fast enough to stay with Shorts so he’ll get a lot of catches. But the Warhawks will tackle well enough to keep themselves from coming out on the Shorts end of the stick. Give the Warhawks the title, divide the game ball between the Warhawks front five, fire the cannon and we’ll go to a deciding seventh game next year.
UW-Whitewater 21, Mount Union 17

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com senior editor
This has been the hardest of the recent Stagg Bowls for me to come to a conclusion. But I keep coming back to the three-headed rushing beast that Whitewater has in the backfield. That notion bucks the trend of the past couple of meetings, when the games were won through big aerial performances. Yet with the Warhawks having such consistency on the ground (1,000 more yards rushing than passing this year) and Mount Union perhaps with a question under center, this will be one Stagg Bowl where we’ll see trench warfare unlike any other this season. I give the edge to Whitewater, which has a lot of power from Ustruck, Weber and Gawronski up front and may be a little of a lopsided matchup for the Mount defensive linemen not named Budzinski. That will define the game, but to be sure, we can expect a smattering of impressive and acrobatic downfield plays from Mount’s receiving corps and tight end (Shorts, Collins and Miller). They’ll play to Whitewater’s weaknesses in the secondary, but they won’t have enough for the win.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 20

Frank Rossi, D3football.com broadcaster
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: a team in purple will win. Hardy har, I know. However, this year, more than ever, it looks like we have two evenly matched finalists with potentially two backup quarterbacks leading their teams down the field. Mount Union seemed to be playing better football in the playoffs, but most agree that Whitewater’s opposition was slightly tougher with two games on the road. This one will be razor thin all game, with Mount Union coming out on top (and having to rely on a leg to create the difference).
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21

Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
So here we go again. Mount-Whitewater VI in a rivalry that has had more sequels than Rocky. This year’s meeting in Salem has a subplot dealing with who the heck will be starting a quarterback for BOTH teams on Saturday. The subtitle for Stagg Bowl XXXVIII should be Game Time Decision Bowl I. The winner of each game in this rivalry has scored at least 30 points. That streak will be broken Saturday.
UW-Whitewater 24, Mount Union 21

Dan Buckel, Mount Union public address announcer
I think this the most curious game of any of the previous UMU/UW-W match-ups. Purple Bowl VI comes down to defense, and in that area, I think Mount Union has the slightest edge. Mount Union’s run defense has been nearly impossible to penetrate, and Coppage with his great O-line will be their biggest challenge to date. I believe No. 33 will get some yards and maybe break a few good runs, however, will it be enough to keep from putting the game into the hands of Brekke? Blanchard, if available, changes everything. I think the MTU defense keeps Coppage under his average, and their pass D is very good. Which quarterback plays for Mount Union? Seaman has shown patience and ability to forget mistakes and get the job done, but will his ankle injury even allow him on the field or hold up if he starts? Piloto has a howitzer for an arm, but that does no good if he misses receivers. Shorts at QB out of a wildcat formation may offer some wrinkles. Mount has struggled at times to move the ball on the ground against good run defenses. They must get enough to keep UW-W defense honest. Both kicking games are very good. UW-W has shown some chinks in the pass defense, and if the Warhawks do not pressure the quarterback consistently with the front four, Mount will be very successful with two All-America-caliber receivers (Shorts and Miller) and three others that have very good speed and hands. Mount must keep their quarterback clean and he must be “on.” The Raiders must limit Warhawk ball control in order to win. I think this game is the closest of the Stagg Bowl contests.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21

Jay Perkins, Uwwfootball.com
Purple Bowl VI represents an intriguing matchup, simply because there are dynamic contrasts between these two teams. Mount Union has blown away its opponents for nine straight weeks. The Raiders are young, fast, deep, athletic, and they execute brilliantly. Their defense has been dominant and their offense pretty close to it. UW-Whitewater has been challenged deep into games since the playoffs began. They have relied on a physical, punishing style to wear down their opponents and dominate at the end of the game. UW-Whitewater has experienced an elite defense in North Central and they have been road tested beating both the No. 5 Cardinals and No. 3 Wesley away from home. Cecil Shorts will most certainly make plays, but it will be a huge challenge for the young Raiders to hold up for 60 minutes against the senior laden Warhawk offensive line and defensive front seven. Team speed may well be Whitewater’s most underrated attribute. Four years in the UW-W program brings rare strength and speed for the D-III level. And this team loves to finish. A late turnover is the difference and UW-Whitewater wins another Stagg Bowl classic.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 27

Triple Take: Regions’ best meet

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Mount Union
Will Mount Union run away and hide on Saturday? Perhaps not.
Photo by Dan Poel for d3photography.com

Remember the last times these two groupings of teams lined up against one another? Fans of the losing teams would probably rather forget those lopsided outings.

But that was then — long enough ago that it doesn’t matter how those matchups played out. At best, a handful of seniors on Mount Union’s and Bethel’s teams were on the 52-man roster for (and actually played in) the semifinal game from 2007. And then there’s UW-Whitewater and Wesley, which haven’t met in the postseason since 2006.

This is a whole new era for each of the four teams on the field.

So perhaps there will be some new predictions from Pat, Keith and Ryan. Or maybe not. You’ll have to keep reading to find out.

Bethel at Mount Union

Ryan: Mount Union 38, Bethel 14
I can hardly remember the last time a one-dimensional offense fared well against the Purple Raiders. Ironically, maybe it was back in 2004 in the Mount Union loss against Mary Hardin-Baylor. But even then, UMHB needed to have enough skill and composure to complete a long pass in the waning seconds for the win. Can Bethel successfully pass if the going gets tough? The Royals showed they could in an impressive Round 1 against Wartburg. Muster up that kind of outing, and Bethel will have a shot on Saturday. If Bethel puts too much faith in the ground game, Mount Union will be celebrating its 14th consecutive victory.

Keith: Mount Union 14, Bethel 0
I don’t think I’ve ever predicted a shutout before, at least not this deep into the playoffs. And maybe 21-7 is more like it. Or maybe it spirals out of control and my prediction is way wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time. But I’m calling a super-low-scoring semifinal because as much as we like to obsess over offensive stars, the back end of the playoffs rewards the team that gets dirtiest and is willing to do the simple things well, like finish blocks and wrap up tackles. Both the Purple Raiders and Royals excel on defense. If Bethel is smart enough to use more than one player to try to limit Cecil Shorts III (59 catches, 16 TD), Mount Union will be able to go to tight end Kyle Miller (54 catches, 5 TD) and wide receiver Jasper Collins (53 catches, 0 TD) for key conversions. Bethel, on the other hand, might end up a one-dimensional running team against a 4-2-5 defense that excels at pursuing to the ball and finishing when they get there. The Royals told our Brian Hunsicker that they don’t send fat guys after the quarterback; Their well-toned rushers better make it to Neal Seaman, who’s hardly needed his uniform washed after some games. Otherwise I think both defenses get their licks in early, and the Purple Raiders emerge with just enough offense to get to Salem.

Pat: Mount Union 24, Bethel 8
Struggling to figure out how Bethel will score, as I suspect my compatriots were. One-dimensional offenses don’t tend to fare too well against Mount Union. In the first meeting with St. Thomas, when Bethel was even more one-dimensional, it wasn’t even Logan Flannery who scored, but Kevin Lindh breaking one open for 52 yards. Mount Union isn’t necessarily the immovable object on defense that the playoffs have portrayed the Purple Raiders as, but the Royals will need to get or create a couple of breaks to put more points on the board. Defensively I see them slowing the Purple Raiders down but not necessarily enough to make more than a dent, although Brendan Flaherty’s reputation as a cover corner will be put to the test against one Cecil Shorts III.

UW-Whitewater at Wesley

Ryan: Wesley 31, UW-Whitewater 27
To come out gun-slinging and not turn the ball over are the best nuggets of advice I can give to Wesley. Wolverines quarterback Justin Sottilare has been wicked-crisp during the postseason: going 63-for-91 (that’s almost 70 percent) with nine touchdowns in that time. And that comes against some solid defenses. The cherry on top might be that Sottilare has also had zero picks in the past three weeks. That’s the playmaker front; Wesley may also be able to harness a bit of an edge in the trenches. The size of the Wolverines’ offensive and defensive lines seems to be better matched than that of their Warhawk counterparts, though it won’t be until we see these teams collide as to whether it’s clear if any speed has been sacrificed in the size differential. To be sure, UW-Whitewater is a top-notch team that could certainly win in Salem for the second year in a row (we’ve all been talking about that for months), but I don’t think of this prediction as going out on a limb — at least not when a team like Wesley also brings so much to the table.

Keith: UW-Whitewater 21, Wesley 16
I’ve been stuck on the same thought since I realized this matchup was taking place: Is this Wesley team significantly different from the the previous three who reached the semifinals and lost, two by blowout at UW-Whitewater? Fans around the country who are tired of seeing Purple in Salem would love to hear a yes, but I think it’s a no. If these Wolverines are better than the ones I picked to win at Mount Union in this round last year, it’s something intangible that I haven’t picked up on. If Wesley wins this Saturday, I don’t think home field is a big factor. It’s Mike Drass and staff vs. Lance Leipold and staff this time, which is a difference from the ’05 and ’06 meetings, when Bob Berezowitz coached the Warhawks. But at this point in the playoffs, every year it comes down to virtually the same thing: What you’ve got up front. And while I have it on good authority that this is Wesley’s most cohesive offensive line, if not it’s most physically talented of the era of Wolverines dominance, I’ve seen both teams this year with my own eyes. UW-Whitewater still does two things most teams can’t: Generate a pass rush using only their defensive line, and bear down and grind out tough rushing yards in the fourth quarter behind their offensive line. Having the nation’s best running back in Levell Coppage doesn’t hurt either. This might be Wesley’s best defense ever, but unless they can win in the trenches more often than not, it’s the same end result.

UW-Whitewater 21, Wesley 16
I’ve resisted making Blanchard plays/Blanchard doesn’t play predictions so far and I’m going to continue to do so even though I feel there is a difference of about a touchdown or so. Having seen UW-Whitewater’s MO on paper the previous two weeks and in person last week, it’s a game plan that should have just as reasonable a chance of succeeding as it did against North Central. Play it fairly close to the vest on offense, wear the other team down, right? Except Wesley isn’t supposed to be as easy to wear down. Here’s where I struggle with Wesley, however — Ellis Krout injured his knee last week against Mary Hardin-Baylor and if he’s not able to go 100 percent, that cuts into one place Wesley has a distinct advantage, its passing game against the UW-Whitewater secondary. Whitewater will have to contain Chris Mayes early after his four sacks in the first half against Mary Hardin-Baylor, as Lee Brekke isn’t as experienced at facing the rush at the college level as LiDarral Bailey was. And this is likely to be an extreme rush. With that in mind I see another low-scoring game, but I still think UWW has enough of the extras aside from the starting 22 to push the balance in its favor — more reliable kicking game, better discipline, and other things that can’t be measured by stats or a roster.