Keith McMillan and I and a guest each week run down the games to watch in several categories — some standard, some off the wall. But this is just the start of the conversation, as we open up the Daily Dose for your thoughts and comments.

Continue along with us here on the blog and on the message boards on game day (we’ll be in Chicagoland), especially if you can’t make it to a game yourself, and then we’ll be back Monday with our weekly podcast, wrapping up the previous weekend’s action.

Kevin LaForest, a former Brockport State broadcaster and occasional postseason live score tracker for us here at D3football.com, known as pg04 on the message boards, is our special guest analyst for this week.

Game of the Week
Keith’s take: Franklin at Mt. St. Joseph. We’ve never seen the Heartland earn two playoff bids, even after Franklin lost 21-14 to automatic qualifier and finished 9-1 last season. So if tradition holds, only one of these teams will make the field of 32, via the AQ. It’s basically a single-elimination playoff game, especially for the Grizzlies, who lost 35-33 at Wabash earlier this year. It could be more of the same from the Lions, a three-time reigning conference champ, or a historic day for the Grizzlies, who haven’t won a conference title since 1981 and have never made the playoffs.

Kevin’s take: No. 11 Ohio Northern at No. 7 Capital. This match-up is the only between two top 25 teams this week, and will probably decide which team gets what could be considered the automatic Pool C bid for the OAC runner-up. The Polar bears were crushed at home last weekend by Mount Union but can make that disappear with a victory this weekend. ONU quarterback Jeff Pankratz will need a better performance after going 13-for-31 for 133 yards last week, while the running game will attempt to get back on the plus side. The crusaders are coming in on an exact opposite feeling after crushing the Blue Streaks of John Carroll 37-13 last week. Their defense was monstrous getting nine sacks and by holding the Blue Streaks to negative yards rushing. The team (if either) that gets out to a quick start will have a great opportunity to win the game.

Pat’s take: Wittenberg at No. 14 Wabash. Wittenberg seems to desperately want to be a factor again in the North Region and has pounded Earlham and Wooster (combined 2-8) to the tune of 131-7. A 13-0 loss to Capital in Week 1 raised eyebrows at the time but seems more reasonable now given what Capital has done since. The Tigers haven’t won a postseason game since 2002, and that was against the Heartland Conference, 1-8 in the playoffs in the automatic bid era. Wabash settled on Matt Hudson at quarterback last week, though he threw for just 129 yards on 23 attempts at Allegheny. Should be a bitter battle.

Surprisingly close
Keith’s take: Concordia-Moorhead at St. Olaf; Hardin-Simmons at East Texas Baptist. The Oles have to get over the hangover from losing a one-point game at conference power St. John’s. If the Oles don’t make it happen right away, the Cobbers could lure them into a shootout: They’ve scored 34 or more in five of six games in their 4-2 season so far. Meanwhile, Hardin-Simmons must get past the idea of being out of the playoff picture and likely the ASC race for the first time in a decade. ETBU is in first place at 4-0, 4-2, but the 2-1, 2-3 Cowboys have the superior talent and should eke one out after they get on board with the idea of playing out the rest of the season as hard as possible. Teams that have taken beatings at their hands for years will be looking for payback if they don’t.

Kevin’s take: No. 3 UW-Whitewater vs. UW-Oshkosh. Well we all know how wild the wild, wild WIAC can be. It appears that any team in the top 4 of the conference has a legitimate shot of making a real run. Whitewater’s lone loss came to an out of division opponent, while Oshkosh lost, but only by 1, to UW-Eau Claire. Justin Beaver of the Warhawks, one of the best in Division III at the running back position, will certainly make it difficult at home. It’s also UW-W’s homecoming game. All this aside, Oshkosh has a fairly potent back of their own. Andy Moriarty has rushed for 10 touchdowns and 721 yards in 5 games this season and could give the Warhawks fits. In the end, though, Whitewater will probably extend their 17 game WIAC winning streak.

Pat’s take: Concordia (Wis.) at Concordia (Ill.). The homestanding Cougars already have more wins than in any season since D3football.com’s inception in 1999. While beating the Falcons is a long shot, this should be a tighter ballgame.

Most likely top 25 team to get upset
Keith’s take: No. 6 Central. Not that losing to visiting Coe would be a major stunner in Iowa. What’s stunning is how the banged-up Dutch keep getting it done. They were outgained for the fourth time this season last week but beat Simpson by a touchdown. Their scores aren’t of the typical dominant top 10 variety, but that’s Central’s m.o.; they aren’t simply playing down to the level of their competition. We wouldn’t have to worry about that with the Kohawks anyway, since they’re among the IIAC’s more talented teams, especially defensively, where they hadn’t allowed more than 10 points in a game until a 28-21 OT loss vs. Dubuque last week.

Kevin’s take: No. 5 Wheaton. Pat picked them last week, and I’m going to pick them again this week. They kind of feel like Wisconsin did last week in the No. 5 position of the Football Bowl Subdivision (or I-A to normal people). Wheaton was able to squeak by the challenge of North Central last week after being down 17-0 at the half. Though they do have being at home on their side, Augustana challenged Illinois Wesleyan to a 22-19 loss on the road. If Augustana can keep it close and withstand the first half homecoming charge, I believe they’ll have a good shot at pulling the upset and making a mess of the CCIW. Also, not many other Top 25 teams are actually playing unranked teams that threaten them in the manner that I feel Augustana does to the Thunder.

Pat’s take: No. 22 UW-Stevens Point. Maybe taking a WIAC team to pull an upset is like picking the low-hanging fruit, but those three NAIA opponents the Pointers started the season with are a combined 3-16, and one of those wins came when two of the opponents faced off. UW-Stout is “just” 2-3, but the Blue Devils’ game at Whitworth was a bigger challenge than anything UW-Stevens Point has seen to date.

They’ll be on your radar
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan. Pat and I will be in CCIW country this weekend and will see four of the conference’s top teams. The Titans aren’t among them, but they are among the conference leaders at 3-2, 2-0 (the non-conference losses were to Coe and MSJ). With wins over Augustana and Carthage already, and Wheaton — the only other team unbeaten in CCIW play — not on the schedule until Nov. 10, the Titans, 3-7 the past three seasons, could make an interesting run, starting Saturday against Millikin.

Kevin’s take: Rowan. Ah-ha. Finally time to mention an eastern team. Perennial eastern powerhouse Rowan is smarting after a disappointing 10-7 conference loss in which their opponent, The College of New Jersey, didn’t score an offensive touchdown. This week, they take on the Buffalo State Bengals in an important NJAC tilt. Rowan is currently 3-2 (1-1 in NJAC) with close losses to Christopher Newport and the previously mentioned TCNJ Lions. However, their wins over Western Connecticut, Wilkes, and Widener have been fairly impressive. The Profs must get back on the winning track if they want any chance at winning the conference and getting into the playoffs to once again become “beasts of the east.” As it is right now, they are essentially 2 games behind TCNJ due to last week’s loss. The question is: Will they fold up, or will the young team show some heart and play out the rest of the season hard?

Pat’s take: Case Western Reserve. At 5-0 but untested, the Spartans have a shot at leaving Carnegie Mellon on the ropes for even an ECAC postseason game. After winning their first 11 games last year, the Tartans are currently 2-3. For Case, this is one of only two chances to impress the playoff committee all season. (They host Wash U in Week 10.) Case’s opponents so far: Oberlin, Denison, Kenyon, Wooster and Gallaudet.

Which conference race will clear up the most?
Keith’s take: The ODAC, but only because it eventually has to. All seven conference teams have at least two more overall wins than losses, and six go head-to-head Saturday, led by Randolph-Macon (2-0, 5-1) hosting Emory and Henry (1-0, 4-1). It’s just like old times for the Yellow Jackets and Wasps, who used to battle for the conference title yearly in the 90s. It’s also the middle of a four-game homestretch for R-MC. One of those two teams will be the last undefeated in ODAC play after Saturday, while four teams who might have more talent than either of them will battle to keep pace. Washington and Lee, 1-1, 3-1 and the defending conference champ, heads to 2-1, 4-2 Hampden-Sydney, while Guilford and Bridgewater meet in Virginia with identical 0-1, 4-1 records.

Kevin’s take: The NCAC. The conference championship is for all intents and purposes up for grabs as Wabash (5-0) and Wittenberg (4-1) go at it Little Giant Stadium in Crawfordsville, Indiana. Both teams are undefeated in the conference and while Oberlin is also undefeated, they will probably not end up being a serious threat. None of the one-loss teams seem poised to make a run either. Should be a pretty fun game between the two teams.

Pat’s take: The CCIW. With four of the top five teams in the league standings facing each other (Augustana at Wheaton, North Central at Elmhurst), some things should begin to take shape. At the very least, Keith and I will get a clearer picture since we’ll be at both games. Surprising Illinois Wesleyan faces Millikin, which has its win against North Park but not much else.

Which non-Division III team is most likely to win this weekend, Trinity Bible at Principia, Faulkner at Huntingdon, or Southern Virginia at Frostburg State?
Keith’s take: I don’t particularly like any of the non-D3s’ chances this week, especially given that Trinity Bible beat Principia twice last year in overtime. The 0-6 Panthers’ misfortune against its most beatable opponent can’t continue … can it?

Kevin’s take: Southern Virginia. Isn’t Trinity Bible the team that lost by 105 points? Otherwise, I think both Faulkner and Southern Virginia will win. However, Southern Virginia is the team that is most likely to win as Frostburg State has not be able to do anything on offense, and has not been able to stop anyone on defense. The Bobcats’ troubles don’t end this week.

Pat’s take: I can’t take Southern Oregon over struggling Linfield, so I’m going with Southern Virginia as well.

Keith McMillan and I and a guest each week run down the games to watch in several categories — some standard, some off the wall. But this is just the start of the conversation, as we open up the Daily Dose for your thoughts and comments.

Continue along with us here on the blog and on the message boards on game day, especially if you can’t make it to a game yourself, and then we’ll be back Monday with our weekly Podcast, wrapping up the previous weekend’s action.

Paul Schreel, an Ohio Northern grad and occasional D3football.com broadcaster, is our guest commentator, providing his reality check for Week 6.

Game of the Week
Keith’s take: No. 1 Mount Union at No. 9 Ohio Northern. There are many here, from coast to coast (Redlands/Occidental). But anytime there’s a chance mighty Mount Union might get a test, that’s one to watch. The No. 1 Purple Raiders come in off four superb offensive performances, scoring 64.3 points per game, while No. 9 Ohio Northern has allowed just nine points per game. Add in the subtext of the Polar Bears being the last to defeat Mount Union, in the ’05 regular season, and we’ve got ourselves the game of the week.

Paul’s take: No. 1 Mount Union at No. 9 Ohio Northern. Four matchups feature two ranked opponents but there’s none bigger than Mount Union and Ohio Northern. This may be the deepest and most talented team Mount Union has fielded. MUC ranks first nationally in total offense, total defense, scoring and countless other categories I’m sure. But Ohio Northern leads Division III in turnover margin and has more team sacks (23) than any other program in Division III. ONU will need to get a lot more yards out of RJ Meadows than the 11.8 yards per game MUC averages on defense. ONU will need to win the turnover margin and limit the effectiveness of either wide receiver Pierre Garcon or running back Nate Kmic (a tall order to say the least).

Pat’s take: No. 24 John Carroll at No. 8 Capital. I’d love to go with No. 9 vs. No. 1, but Mount Union has blown out too many great teams for me to have much confidence in that really being a game. But Capital’s offense is in pieces and John Carroll came up big on Homecoming last week. If they can do the same on the road, then the OAC is down to one possible Pool C team — ONU — unless someone can beat Mount Union.

Surprisingly close game
Keith’s take: No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 21 Hardin-Simmons. A lot of people like a blowout here, because the Cru has been so powerful and the Cowboys can’t seem to stop anyone from scoring. HSU opponents have done most of their damage through the air though, and the Cru won’t pass much no matter the situation. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have finally settled on a quarterback. Justin Feaster passed for 495 yards last week. I could be way off, but there’s something about knowing the season’s on the line — and it is for the Cowboys — that draws out the best in teams.

Paul’s take: Wabash at Allegheny. Wabash has been a bit banged up, especially at QB with senior Dustin Huff only playing in the opener (and putting up 477 yards and 4 TD’s). The Little Giants have managed nicely in his absence but they face a very physical Allegheny team and travel all the way east to Meadville, Pa., for their longest road trip of the regular season. The Gators haven’t exactly blown the doors off the competition in their three wins but they do play Wabash tough every year and this one could go down to the wire. Wabash may be faster and deeper but the Gators will fight to the final whistle.

Pat’s take: DePauw at Birmingham-Southern. The Panthers started camp to much fanfare for their 120-plus recruits, beat the Mississippi College JV and barely lost to Rhodes in their opener. Even if Jeremiah Marks were to play he might take some time to get back up to speed and allow Birmingham-Southern to keep the game within reach.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Keith’s take: No. 15 Salisbury. Wheaton (at North Central) and Redlands (at Occidental) made plenty of sense here, but Geneva’s made a little noise as it transitions to Division III. With two sure wins (Morrisville State, Becker) to follow before the season-defining clash with Wesley, the Sea Gulls could get caught looking ahead.

Pat’s take: No. 5 Wheaton. Kyle Bradley and/or Sean Norris will be getting his first taste of the Little Brass Bell game and the two were sacked a combined seven times last week against Millikin. North Central will have a first-year starter at quarterback as well, but has the home field and perhaps a bit of a chip on its shoulder.

Paul’s take: No. 4 St. John’s. I feel like I’m really going out on a limb here but it might just be St. John’s. St. John’s is always a class act but they were less than impressive last Saturday versus a 2-2 Carleton team. STJ didn’t score its first points until nearly halfway through the fourth quarter and can’t afford such a sluggish start this Saturday. St. Olaf is an offensive force so far this year ranking fourth in the nation in total offense, passing and scoring. Can the Johnnies defense stop the Oles’ offense? The game’s in Collegeville and I’m sure the Oles would love to ruin the homecoming festivities.

They’ll be on your radar
Keith’s take: My alma mater Randolph-Macon. In a rare show of favoritism, my Yellow Jackets (4-1) play a big game for the first time in years, as ’06 playoff participant Carnegie Mellon (2-2) visits for homecoming. I’ll be in Texas serving the greater Division III community, but my heart will be in Va. thinking maybe, just maybe, my boys are legit.

Paul’s take: Occidental. They might just be a candidate for another top 25 spoiler as they take on 25th ranked Redlands at home Saturday night. This team’s gone 31-4 in the last 3+ seasons and squeaked out a 28-27 win at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps last weekend. I just don’t know if Redlands has what it takes to beat the Tigers on their home turf. Sure Redlands is 3-0 but one of their wins is over Haskell Indian Nations (WHO?!?!?). The balanced Occidental offensive attack might be too much for the Bulldogs.

Pat’s take: Carnegie Mellon. No, just kidding, Keith. Redlands. These guys are about as under the radar as you can get and still be in the Top 25. Admittedly, last week’s 12-0 win against Chapman doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the offense, which put up 24 points against Whitworth in the season opener. Redlands’ Haskell Indian Nations win isn’t against an impressive opponent, but then again, Occidental’s opening three opponents are 1-10.

Who has a bigger weekend, Jarvis Thrasher vs. HSU, Nate Kmic vs. Ohio Northern or Matt Penz vs. St. John’s?
Keith’s take: Kmic. Larry Kehres leans on him in big games, and we could see the Purple Raiders’ all-time rushing leader get 30 more carries in an attempt to wear down a pretty good defense.

Paul’s take: Waynesburg freshman running back Robert Heller. I know I’m cheating but this kid leads all of D-III in rushing and should clear the 1,000 yard mark in his fifth collegiate game. I don’t care about the fact that he’s getting almost 40 carries a game; he’s a beast.

Of the three choices, I hope it’s not Nate Kmic. If he has the biggest weekend, it means MUC controls the game and this spotlight game won’t be much of a contest. I’ll go with Jarvis Thrasher simply because he’s done big things in his first two meetings with HSU. Why change now? To control the clock and limit the effectiveness of HSU’s Justin Feaster, the Crusaders will give Thrasher plenty of touches. He feasts in order to table Feaster’s effectiveness. I can’t believe I went there.

Pat’s take: Matt Penz. But that doesn’t mean St. Olaf comes out of Collegeville with a victory.

Who is more likely to stay unbeaten, Pacific Lutheran, UW-Stevens Point or Coe?
Keith’s take: UW-Stevens Point. Although Coe is the only one with a home game here, UW-Platteville, the Pointers? opponent, comes in reeling from three consecutive defeats and may prove an easier mark than either Dubuque or Whitworth.

Paul’s take: UW-Stevens Point. PLU plays at Whitworth which is no easy task. Coe plays at home and has only given up 23 points on the season. UW-SP plays on the road in the WIAC (never a fun proposition) but they face a UW-Platteville team that hasn’t been able to get things together yet this season. UW-SP hasn’t lost to Platteville in the 21st century. That has to count for something.

Pat’s take: Pacific Lutheran. It’s all about the mustaches. Plus, we’re sending Adam Johnson out for the Oct. 20 Pacfic Lutheran/Linfield game and I want to make sure it’s as meaningful as possible!