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Triple Take: Conference clashes heat up

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At only the midpoint in the season, it’s still hard to dub any matchup as a de facto conference title game, but at least half a dozen on Saturday can make strong cases to that claim. The CC (Johns Hopkins at Dickinson), CCIW (Wheaton at Augustana), MWC (St. Norbert at Monmouth), OAC (Mount Union at Capital), ODAC (Hampden-Sydney at Emory and Henry) and SCIAC (Redlands at Occidental) all feature competing teams at the top of their conferences, making this a fun week to keep an eye on the scoreboard.

–Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week

Ryan’s take: Hampden-Sydney at Emory and Henry. The Tigers are bringing a keen offense down to Emory, Va., (where I’ll be on Saturday) and have been blowing out opponents by impressive margins. The Wasps, on the other hand, have come down to the final minute to eke out two of their four wins — making me wonder if that’s a testament of their grit for 60 minutes of play or a stroke of good luck. These undefeated teams are solid in their core (H-SC on offense; E&H on defense), but this game will be especially interesting because of how well both teams are playing on their margins. Curious, too, is whether the thunderstorm prediction will dampen H-SC’s passing game at all.

Keith’s take: No. 22 Redlands at No. 24 Occidental. I’ll stay up for the late game. I can’t remember the last clash of ranked SCIAC teams, and as outlined in this week’s Around the Nation, an Occidental win could open the door to the SCIAC being a two-playoff-bid conference. And that could have a ripple effect across the potential playoff brackets, as three West Coast playoff teams mean someone’s got to take a flight. If Redlands wins and stays on course to go unbeaten, it could have the effect of kicking another potential high West seed North, and a North team East … making Saturday’s faceoff truly the “national” game of the week.

Pat’s take: St. Norbert at No. 12 Monmouth. This is a rarity in the Midwest Conference — it’s a game for the title between two programs that both have playoff experience. In the current pundit parlance, they’re “teams which know how to win,” but to me, it’s teams who won’t be intimidated by what’s at stake. Last year St. Norbert lost 31-22 at home, but then again, that Green Knights team finished 7-3 and was not on the same level as the teams which set the gold standard for the league over the previous decade. Worth watching the free video on the Midwest Conference site.

Surprisingly close game

Ryan’s take: No. 1 Mount Union at No. 21 Capital. Hard to decide what defines “close” when talking about the Purple Raiders, but I’ll just say that it’ll be closer than the 30-0 shutout that Mount pitched last weekend.

Keith’s take: No. 19 Cortland State at Montclair State. Only those who watch from afar, and see that the Red Hawks aren’t receiving any top 25 votes despite the same record as the Red Dragons, would be surprised if this is close. And even though the numbers don’t particularly bear this out, this one smells like a defensive struggle to me, with both offenses having been held to 10 points last time they faced an above-average team.

Pat’s take: UW-Stout at UW-Stevens Point. Stout has been looking for respect for its start, which now has reached 4-0. While Stevens Point is just 2-2, this is a chance for the Blue Devils to earn a little, since it’s the best opponent they’ve faced so far.

Most likely Top 25 teams to get upset

Ryan’s take: No. 10 Case Western Reserve. There’s lots of talk about the weak-ish schedule that the Spartans play, but while a factor, their Saturday opponent, Wooster, can’t boast much better. But Wooster has been improving on defense, which is still the bread and butter of this Scots squad.  Wooster is good against the pass, and can force teams to turn the ball over, something that should make Case nervous.

Keith’s take: No. 4 Wheaton and No. 20 Ithaca. I would still mark the Thunder and Bombers as favorites against Augustana and St. John Fisher, especially at home, but it’s hard to tell from the uneven starts whether either team is overranked on name recognition. Upsets wouldn’t stun me.

Pat’s take: No. 15 St. Thomas. The Tommies’ game against Concordia-Moorhead has the classic trappings of … well, a trap game. It’s right in front of the St. John’s game, and, honestly, what else is necessary to qualify?

They’ll be on your radar

Ryan’s take: Ursinus. The Bears have a chance to bounce back from a lackluster ‘08 outing, and by being 2-0 in conference play for the first time since 1996, they’re off to a good start. The past two games have each showcased different sides of the ball — a shutout against Juniata; and 55 points and the win against Gettysburg. Now they face Franklin and Marshall, a team has been adept at putting up lots of points on opponents. It’ll be a good indicator for the bears.

Keith’s take: Union. The Dutchmen haven’t looked very dominant despite playing the role of Liberty League front runner. Normally, Hobart is as good a test as any LL team will see, but this also doesn’t seem like a normal season in The League.

Pat’s take: Montclair State. Remember the Week 1 radar? And Week 2, actually, where Montclair lost to Wilkes. This is the Red Hawks’ chance to get back on the radar, hosting a Cortland State team that had to bring quarterback Alex Smith out of retirement for this weekend, just in case.

Which team is most likely to get caught looking ahead to next weekend?

Ryan’s take: No. 15 St. Thomas (against Concordia-Moorhead). The stats definitely favor the Tommies in this game, and the team is riding a strong, high-scoring wave right now. But conference favorite St. John’s looms next week, and it’s easy to get caught up thinking about that game. Saturday’s opponent, Concordia-Moorhead, is coming off competitive back-to-back losses against St. John’s and Bethel, and the Cobbers will be hungry for a win — and capable of disrupting St. Thomas’ perfect season.

Keith’s take: Nobody. This is dangerous territory, trying to guess a team’s mental state without really knowing it intimately. But as a former player (and human familiar with human nature), I can tell you this does happen. There are logical candidates like Mississippi College and Coe, who need to play their best games of the season next week against No 3 UMHB and Wartburg in Week 7, and are off Saturday. There are others, like DePauw, St. John’s and Wittenberg, who could be looking ahead, but shouldn’t have trouble with Rhodes, Hamline and Earlham even if they are.

Pat’s take: Christopher Newport. This week, Averett. Next week, North Carolina Wesleyan. Don’t take Averett lightly, despite a 5-15 record the past two seasons. And Christopher Newport is coming off an emotional win against rival Shenandoah last week.

Among the big conference clashes in the CC, MWC and SCIAC, who will emerge as winners?

Ryan’s take: Dickinson, Monmouth and Redlands. At least that’s who I have favored on my Top 25 ballot.

Keith’s take: Dickinson, Monmouth and Redlands. I’d love to vary it up, but that’s not who I think will win.

Pat’s take: Muhlenberg, Beloit and Cal Lutheran. Or did you mean not those clashes? None of these teams is exactly out of it, though admittedly, they don’t have the inside track for the conference titles.

The ATN Podcast this week was all about the picking the Top 25. Which team has dropped the furthest on your ballot, and how will they fare this weekend?

Ryan’s take: Hardin-Simmons. If you bought Kickoff ‘09, you know that I had picked the Cowboys to wrangle every team in the South Region en route to the national semifinals. They were No. 3 on my early ballots, before injuries snagged their star quarterback and key receiver. Now they’re unranked. If HSU wants to salvage the rest of the season, it will have start this weekend against a down East Texas Baptist team. Despite the Cowboys’ tough schedule, they hold the edge is just about ever statistical category and should be able to improve upon their 1-4 record.

Keith’s take: Capital. Oh man. I’ve wiped a handful of teams, from Willamette to Cortland State, clean off my ballot in the first five weeks. There always seems to be some movement on mine; even last week when the top 25 went 25-0, I had two that lost (Bethel, Wilkes) and a DNP (Alfred). Among teams I’m still voting for, the Crusaders are one I’m keeping an eye on. I think you can guess how I think they’ll fare; If it were anything different, that’d be interesting.

Pat’s take: Well … I also have Hardin-Simmons high, fourth. But if the point is to spotlight more than one team in this spot, I should point out I had Ithaca in my Top 10 as well. Should be a good game for the Bombers against St. John Fisher, but I expect Ithaca to still come out on top.

Triple Take: Going once, going twice …

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Are you sold yet?

That was the focus of this week’s Around the Nation Podcast, and as we draw near to the middle of the season, it’s expected that we’ll see more undefeated teams start to fall. Some conferences are sporting multiple teams without losses, such as the CCIW (five) and the NCAC, MAC and SCIAC among the surprises (three unbeatens each).

Others out there will be looking to shrug off tough non-conference records and find their way to their automatic qualifiers. The NCAA’s first regional rankings will be here before we know it, and a combination of challenging schedules and on-field success is the gateway to postseason Pool C bids and seeding.

— Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week

Ryan’s take: No. 20 Ithaca at Hartwick. No team in the Empire 8 has a losing record this season, and with two surprise undefeated teams looming at the top of the leader board, conference games are becoming more and more important. The Bombers and Hawks represent the two best air attacks in the conference (though not by too wide of a margin), but Hartwick has been exceptional at getting pressure on quarterbacks and making them scramble. Ithaca will need a win here to stay in Pool A contention after an early season blemish, and continuing to force turnovers will be one way to make that happen.

Keith’s take: Bethel at No. 6 St. John’s. The Royals are a last-gasp touchdown vs. No 4 Wheaton away from making this a battle of 4-0 teams. But each is still 2-0 in MIAC play, meaning there’s plenty to play for in terms of jockeying for position before the playoff stretch. The Johnnies come in with the lofty ranking, but Bethel comes in knowing it’s won three in a row against St. John’s, including during a 4-5 down year last season.

Pat’s take: Bridgewater at Hampden-Sydney. This game has been a war for about the past seven years and I’m not expecting anything different this time around. Hampden-Sydney has the home-field advantage and looks better on paper and has won two in a row … but despite that I expect it to be anything but routine.

Surprisingly close game

Ryan’s take: Shenandoah at Christopher Newport. I’d like the Hornets even more if they were playing at home, but with the Captains’ offense still struggling to find consistency on the field one month into the season, a lot of this will depend on which CNU team shows up. Shenandoah will need to make more happen in its passing game to do well, but for both squads, it will come down to which defense steps up.

Keith’s take: Birmingham-Southern at Trinity (Texas). The Panthers have two of their five Division III wins in history this season, including last week’s 51-17 romp against Rhodes. The Tigers have looked uneven in a 3-1 start entirely on the road. I still think Trinity wins its home opener, but B-SC seems to be closing the gap.

Pat’s take: St. Olaf at Carleton. St. Olaf looks like it will have the upper hand significantly on paper, but Carleton’s desire to keep the Goat and the things that go with it in Northfield, Minn., will keep them in the game longer than expected. That and the fact that St. Olaf managed just nine yards rushing last week without electrifying sophomore tailback Leon Clark.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.

Ryan’s take: No. 18 Willamette. A win by Whitworth wouldn’t be much of an upset after already proving able to hang close against teams like Hardin-Simmons (in its Week 1 prime) and Redlands. If Whitworth can play 60 minutes of football, as opposed to the 30 on/30 off that has emerged at other points this year, then they will have a shot at winning and gain some momentum heading into the Linfield game.

Keith’s take: No. 17 UW-La Crosse. Honestly, there aren’t many top 25 teams I think are in trouble this week, but UW-Oshkosh is two points from being unbeaten, and the ride on the Eagles’ bandwagon is herky-jerky. Plus, it’s the WIAC.

Pat’s take: No. 6 St. John’s. Not that anyone has really had St. John’s number, but Saturday’s opponent, Bethel has won the past three meetings, including 14-9 last season at home. They’re far apart on the national radar, though perhaps not deservedly, as Bethel is 3-1, with its only loss at home to Wheaton (Ill.) on a touchdown on the final play of the game. How much distance there is between Wheaton and UW-Eau Claire (which had a shot to tie St. John’s on the road on the final play of regulation) is debatable.

They’ll be on your radar

Ryan’s take: Hope. The Dutchmen are 0-4 against teams that are a combined 11-1, including an overtime loss against a WIAC team and last week’s valiant stand against No. 4 Wheaton. If not too battered and beaten, I want to see how this tough schedule benefits them once they play good teams closer to home, as in this week against Trine. Hope has a chance to make its effort pay off en route to the MIAA’s automatic qualifier.

Keith’s take: DePauw. There are so many games to keep an eye on this week, from Johns Hopkins-Muhlenberg to Williams-Trinity to Mississippi College-Louisiana College. But Millsaps-DePauw is most intriguing because I still don’t quite know what to make of the Tigers. Was their loss to Centre because the Colonels are that good? Was the three points scored last week because of the sloppy weather? Is DePauw any good if quarterback Spud Dick’s concussions return?

Pat’s take: RPI. Though the Engineers are more than a little bit overexposed in the coaches’ poll, they would be worthy of at least getting some votes in the Top 25 with a win at home on Saturday against Rochester.

Which of the nation’s surprise undefeated teams has the most interesting matchup on Saturday?

Ryan’s take: Hampden-Sydney (facing Bridgewater). I realize that some people may not be surprised that the Tigers are 4-0, but I’ll ‘fess up to believing that there was a good chance they’d start the season 0-2, namely after the loss to graduation of their leading rusher and receiver. I certainly wasn’t thinking they’d have already put up 183 points this year. But with the ODAC overall showing less dominance than in years past, H-SC’s game against 3-1 Bridgewater becomes all the more important as the top teams vie to separate themselves. The Eagles themselves have put up 131 points against opponents. Both teams have relatively balanced defenses to make this a battle.

Keith’s take: Lebanon Valley (facing Delaware Valley). The Flying Dutchmen will likely move into the top 25 for the first time in 10-plus seasons of D3football.com if they can keep their hot start going at home against the Aggies this week. And if not now, a visit to Wilkes (currently 3-0, but facing 3-0 Albright) follows.

Pat’s take: The College of New Jersey (facing Kean). Kean is 2-1 against a much tougher schedule, while unbeaten TCNJ hasn’t shown it can stop anyone on defense. TCNJ will be playing its first road game. What will the 57.3 points per game TCNJ scored against Buffalo State, FDU-Florham and Morrisville State translate to at Kean?

Around the Nation this week talked about turnarounds, and three ‘08 playoff teams have just one win so far this season. Which still has the best shot at a turnaround?

Ryan’s take: LaGrange, with a maybe. Hobart and Lycoming clearly have tough stretches ahead of them, and I don’t know that there’s any reason to think there will be a grand turnaround from either of them. LaGrange, however, has been bounced around by Wesley and Maryville, yet the Panthers do have a couple of winnable games left to play.

Keith’s take: Lycoming. This is AQ 101. Hobart’s 1-2 start includes a Liberty League loss at Susquehanna, while LaGrange, in Pool B, isn’t going back to the playoffs with three losses. But Lycoming’s 1-2 start doesn’t involve any MAC games, so it still determines its own playoff fate, and there’s no better turnaround (or reason to stay motivated) than to return to the postseason.

Pat’s take: Hobart. The Statesmen have played a couple of pretty decent opponents to take those two early losses. Turn all the way back around into a playoff spot? Probably not. But maybe 6-3 is possible. They may find themselves kicking themselves for not playing Alfred on their mutual open date, because it could be as close to a tenth game as Hobart gets this season.

What will be the final score of the somewhat deflated matchup between Mary Hardin-Baylor and Hardin-Simmons?

Ryan’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Hardin-Simmons 10. Even if this game were to be played later in the season, I don’t know that I’d pick a much different outcome.

Keith’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Hardin-Simmons 28. I hate to even take a crack at this one. The Cowboys lost, 20-18, in the regular season last year and 38-35 in the playoffs, and 47-14 the regular season before. And since Hardin-Simmons has injury, and likely confidence, issues after its 1-3 start, it’s difficult to determine which band of Cowboys will take the field.

Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor 48, Hardin-Simmons 24. I expect HSU to get a few points on the board, but not many. Regardless, it’s likely to be more competitive than the game I’ll be at at that time: Baldwin-Wallace at Mount Union.

Triple Take: Guru Bowl (and other tales)

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Last year, few may have foreseen that Randolph-Macon’s win over undefeated Catholic would help jump start a turnaround and an eventual trip to the playoffs for the Yellow Jackets, which began the ‘08 season 1-2. With the Yellow Jackets in the same position, and Catholic at 0-3 so far, both teams are looking for a little extra spark this year. Will it be Pat’s alma mater (CUA) or Keith’s (R-MC) that’ll earn the bragging rights come Saturday? See what we think below, plus our games of the week and possible upsets.

— Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week

Ryan’s take: No. 9 Ohio Northern at No. 18 Otterbein. No question about the magnitude of this one. I think the Polar Bears come away with a convincing win.

Keith’s take: Wilkes at Christopher Newport. It doesn’t quite have the cache of a normal game of the week since neither team is ranked, but it’s a non-conference matchup of potential conference champions, and it’s not an easy call as to who’ll win.

Pat’s take: Trinity (Texas) at Millsaps. I envision a hard-fought game that comes down to a desperation play on the last snap of the game, one that makes highlight reels for years. What, that story line has already been done? Crap.

Surprisingly close game

Ryan’s take: Frostburg State at Widener. Last year’s matchup wasn’t out of reach for the Bobcats, and freshman signal-caller Phoenix Butler-Poole has almost 700 yards passing despite the team’s 0-3 record. Defense will be a clear and present concern if the underdogs expect to be able to stand up to a Pride team that has opened with a tough schedule that would make many other teams blush.

Keith’s take: No. 20 Ithaca at Utica. After the Pride’s respectable showing at RPI (a 17-14 loss), I’ll be eager to see what happens when they play a good team on their home turf. Was last Saturday a fluke or a warning shot?

Pat’s take: Kean at No. 7 Cortland State. Although, this will be an interesting matchup since both may well be without their best offensive player. Kean lost Jason Gwaltney in the second quarter of its season opener against Delaware Valley and he hasn’t played since. Cortland State quarterback Dan Pitcher tore his Achilles’ tendon last week against Rowan and is done for the year.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset

Ryan’s take: No. 22 Trine. This may be the easy pick. The Thunder’s win against Manchester was too close for comfort, and tackling Franklin on the road will be harder than anything Trine has seen this season. Plus, Trine doesn’t quite have the firepower to exploit Franklin’s defensive shortcomings.

Keith’s take: No. 4 Wheaton. It’s dangerous to go this far out on the limb, reaching all the way up the top 25 when there are so many lower-ranked teams to choose from. But Hope, 0-3 after a loss to Illinois Wesleyan by a field goal, and both Carthage and UW-Eau Claire by a touchdown, the latter by a 52-45 score in two overtimes … don’t the Flying Dutchmen eventually have to catch a giant sleeping and steal an upset?

Pat’s take: No. 15 Central. Although the recent years’ trend for the Dutch would mean they’re more likely to pull out a last-minute win by the skin of their teeth, like they did earlier this month against UW-Stevens Point and multiple times during their recent run of Iowa Conference titles. Coe is 3-0, with a signature win in its opener, 9-7 against Augustana. The Kohawks didn’t look impressive on the scoreboard against Luther last week, winning 19-6, but gave up its only touchdown after consecutive fair-catch interference penalties wrapped around a short punt gave Luther the ball at the Coe 28.

They’ll be on your radar

Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg. I’m sort of cheating with this pick because I will be heading up to Pennsylvania to see the Mules play this weekend. Nevertheless, the team — which held close to Wilkes in Week 1 and later went on to beat Union — has had a surprisingly strong start despite losing its star passer and rusher to graduation. The Mules’ Saturday opponent, Gettysburg, is also much better than its 0-3 record would suggest.

Keith’s take: Millsaps. Not sure what to make of the Majors’ tight games against Mississippi and Austin. Hosting Trinity should tell us if they’re going to contend for a playoff spot. I’d like to get the same insight from Concordia-Moorhead at Bethel and ONU at Otterbein, while we’re at it.

Pat’s take: Wittenberg. Perhaps the Tigers should be on the radar already, after crushing Olivet and Wash. U. by a combined total of 83-6. But it’s hard to tell how much of that is Wittenberg and how much is Olivet (which also lost to Concordia-Chicago) and Wash. U. (which also lost to Greenville). Ohio Wesleyan is winless but has at least been competitive against reasonable teams.

As the NESCAC teams debut, what will be the most noteworthy thing to come out of the conference this weekend?

Ryan’s take: Donald McKillop’s performance. As NESCAC teams go, McKillop’s Middlebury has a favorable opening draw against Bowdoin in which to showcase his return. After an ‘07 season in which the quarterback passed for almost 1,400 yards, he followed that up in ‘08 with 1,940 yards in just six games amid an injury. Expect him to post big numbers again this year right out of the gate.

Keith’s take: The performance of the road teams. You have to go back to Bowdoin’s 6-2 year in 2005 to find a team other than Trinity, Williams, Amherst, Middlebury or Tufts that’s finished above .500 in the NESCAC. Those five are on the road Saturday against Bates, Colby, Hamilton, Bowdoin and Wesleyan, respectively. Each road team travels out of state, making one of its longest trips of the season. Any home team that emerges victorious on Saturday could put us on the trail of the conference’s surprise this season.

Pat’s take: Not sure, but at least we can watch. The games are all early in the day and three of them are on live video, so what we don’t know now we have the ability to find out pretty soon.

Which conference clash mentioned in the ATN Podcast will have the biggest “wow” factor: Coe at Central; Ohio Northern at Otterbein; or Hardin-Simmons at Mississippi College?

Ryan’s take: Coe at No. 15 Central. Both teams are ones that I’ve kept a strong interest in. Both are good, and both have a shot at making the postseason via Pool A and C bids. Coe has had close but quality wins so far, while Central has put last year behind it and already knocked off a high-ranked UW-Stevens Point team. The winner will be in the Iowa driver’s seat.

Keith’s take: Hardin-Simmons at Mississippi College. The Cowboys’ Justin Feaster tried to play through his shoulder sprain for part of last week’s loss to Louisiana College. If he can somehow gut it out again this week, he’d be part of a clash of two of the South Region’s best quarterbacks. The Choctaws’ Adam Shaffer has passed for 753 yards and nine touchdowns in three games.

Pat’s take: No. 9 Ohio Northern at No. 18 Otterbein. The wow factor will be, I think, Ohio Northern’s dominance. Otterbein starting quarterback Jack Rafferty injured a finger in last week’s win against Muskingum and sophomore Austin Schlosser is slated to get the call.

Who wins the Guru Bowl between Pat’s alma mater (Catholic) and Keith’s alma mater (Randolph-Macon)?

Ryan’s take: Randolph-Macon. I picked R-MC last year against the odds, and, with them having found a solid solution to the run game, I think they’re the smart choice this year as well.

Keith’s take: Randolph-Macon. I’m not sure I’m thrilled about the whole “Guru Bowl” concept — and to be clear, no one but Triple Take really calls it that. The Jackets and Cardinals have a nice rivalry, but does it really deserve this much attention? Either way, my alma mater is going to win. Because I said so.

Pat’s take: Randolph-Macon. I’m not afraid to admit when my alma mater is not so good. I’m never blindly loyal. I think the Cardinals will figure it out soon but completing less than 50 percent of their passes and 6 for 34 on third down isn’t going to get the job done.