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Triple Take: Make or break

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As we reach Week 3, many teams are staring down 2-0 or 0-2 starts and are reaching a critical proving ground about whether their efforts so far are a fluke or have follow-through. Heads can swell with early success, while hearts can sink with shortfalls. The question is how likely could the tide turn for those teams.

Last week we saw three Top 25 squads get bumped off by lower-ranked opponents, and this week all but two teams in the poll will be lining up. With that, Pat, Keith and I give your our thoughts and predictions for Saturday.

— Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 5 Wesley at Delaware Valley.I remember where I was in 2008 when I read the front page headline “Wesley falls in belated opener.” A team that was getting looks as a possible No. 1 in the country lost its first game of the season after letting a halftime lead slip away, and Del Val took command of the game seconds before the final clock ran out. I remind you of this because I’m sure the Wesley veterans have been reminded of it all week, and with both teams having started their seasons 2-0, there’s that much more to be excited about.
Keith’s take: Rowan at No. 9 Cortland State. I’d be willing to bet there’s not as much difference between the Profs and Red Dragons as the rankings suggest. As openers go, Rowan’s 29-7 win at Lycoming was more impressive than Cortland’s 26-17 home victory against Morrisville State. But what makes this game, and others like it (Lousiana College at No. 15 Hardin-Simmons, No. 6 St. John’s at No. 23 Concordia-Moorhead) so important is that in conferences where three or more teams could contend, it almost functions as an early elimination game. It’s not 100 percent do-or-die, but with Kean, Montclair State and the rest of the NJAC looming, neither team can afford to drop a conference game so early.
Pat’s take: No. 14 Linfield at No. 21 Occidental. It’s the last game of the day, and I hope it’s worth the wait, not to mention the trip. I have some trepidation about Occidental after what seems like a lackluster performance in its opener at Menlo. But to be fair, I could think the same about Linfield, wondering how much of its win against Hardin-Simmons was Linfield, how much was the home field, and how much was HSU losing its All-American candidate quarterback. So I’ll be there in person, and you guys will be watching the live video stream, right?

Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Thiel at No. 8 Washington and Jefferson. Count me among those who aren’t yet convinced that this year’s Presidents deserve to be in the Top 10 — or even the Top 20. Tempered wins in the first two weeks against teams that are a combined 0-3 make me think that the Tomcats can offer W&J something new: a challenge.
Pat’s take: No. 1 Mount Union at No. 7 Ohio Northern. Surprisingly closer than five touchdowns, right? Who knows — if Ohio Northern can pick off Aaron Fanthorpe three times then what can it do with a quarterback making his second career start, or a freshman backup in game No. 2. The question will be whether that’s enough to get ONU on the board in sufficient quantities against a strong Purple Raider defense.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 18 St. Thomas. With Ohio Northern having a week to rest after upsetting North Central in Week 1, it would would be nice to have the guts to pull the trigger on their game against Mount Union, but I think a repeat of ‘05 isn’t going to happen. But over in the MIAC, the Tommies and Oles are at the top of their conference in yards per game, and amid both teams’ ground-based attacks, the Oles are proving stouter against the run (opponents have averaged minus-26.5 yards rushing per game).
Keith’s take: No. 6 St. John’s. Two schools of thought on the Johnnies’ start: They beat two teams from the nation’s most powerful conference. Or, they’re lucky they aren’t 0-2. If the Cobbers’ win over Willamette means as much as pollsters seem to think, the Johnnies could be trouble this week, especially in Moorhead, which is the least-friendly road trip in the MIAC.
Pat’s take: No. 9 Cortland State. If the NJAC coaches poll is right — and when is a preseason coaches poll ever wrong? — then this isn’t an upset at all. But Rowan had this game right there for the taking last year and couldn’t pull it off. An especially tough defensive performance for the Profs puts them in good stead heading to New York, but they need to keep the penalties in check.

They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: No. 7 Ohio Northern. As hinted at above, I’m interested to see how this plays out. It’s well documented that Mount Union can turn highly ranked, well-oiled teams into a pile of rubble. But if — just what if — ONU keeps this one close …?
Keith’s take: No. 20 DePauw. I’m interested in how Ohio Northern fares as well, but we know something about the Polar Bears, from the North Central win. DePauw, on the other hand, is quite a mystery for a team favored to win its conference. That coach Robby Long took over not long before the season began added to that intrigue. Senior quarterback Spud Dick tossed five touchdown passes and led the offense to 665 yards in the opener, a 55-7 win over Anderson. But Centre is first in a line of tough teams that will visit Blackstock Stadium this season. Millsaps, Trinity, Austin and Wabash follow.
Pat’s take: Redlands. The poll doesn’t rank them this way, but I believe Redlands is the best team in the SCIAC and they’ll have a shot to put that to use against Whitworth. And I’ll tell you — we’re looking for radar teams. Not just on the radar but Top 25. Positions are open.

Which surprise 2-0 team is least likely to go 3-0?
Ryan’s take: Waynesburg. The Yellow Jackets opened the year against Wooster with a gutsy performance and piled on lots of points against a team that was touting the promise of its defense. Then Waynesburg turned around and made short work of Hanover. However, Thomas More is now waiting in the wings, and I’ll be impressed if anyone in the PAC is able to stop the Saints this year.
Keith’s take: Utica. After 62-7 and 62-10 wins over Becker and Castleton State, the Pioneers are likely riding high. But confidence won’t do the trick in a visit to RPI, which looked like its usual strong self in a 28-0 shutout of Endicott.
Pat’s take: Beloit. (at Monmouth). I was going to go with Austin, but opening against Southwest Assemblies of God and McMurry doesn’t qualify as surprisingly 2-0. Or I could take St. Olaf, since that’s how little I agree with Ryan’s upset pick. I expect St. Thomas to run for 250 yards more than St. Olaf has allowed on average.

Who needs to notch its first win more: Wooster, Baldwin-Wallace or Christopher Newport?
Ryan’s take: Wooster. Though the Scots’ path was surprisingly tainted already this year, their season feels more wide open than the other two, as if (to use the cliche) they control their destiny more. A big win could mean a big morale boost. The other two feel different than that. For B-W, every week in the OAC is going to be a massive, unpredictable challenge; and CNU has as good a chance as any in the USAC to rebound from nonconference play with a postseason bid via the automatic qualifier.
Keith’s take: Christopher Newport. The logic is that a nonconference loss wouldn’t hurt the Captains’ playoff chances much since they often handle business in the USAC. But if they don’t beat Salisbury this week, Wilkes looms, and there’s a very real chance they could limp into the conference schedule at 0-3. Besides, the Sea Gulls are coming off a loss to USAC rival N.C. Wesleyan, so assuming a CNU sweep of the conference might not be wise.
Pat’s take: Baldwin-Wallace. Unlike the other two, B-W could conceivably get an at-large bid at 8-2 because the second loss, presumably to Mount Union, tends to get forgiven by the playoff selection committee.

As introduced in this week’s Around the Nation, which NEFC game between Bogan and Boyd will be the most interesting?
Ryan’s take: Framingham State at MIT. Since learning last year that one of the country’s best rushers, MIT’s DeRon Brown, comes from my neck of the woods, I’ve been keeping an eye on him. This year, I’m expecting to see even bigger things. He and his team will be tested as the Rams stand up well against the run, and the interest lies in how well the Engineers cope with that obstacle.
Keith’s take: Coast Guard at Plymouth State. Both have already experienced heartbreaking defeat — the Bears lost the Secretaries Cup to rival Merchant Marine in the second overtime, while the Panthers never trailed against Division II St. Anselm until the fifth overtime. Both have been among the NEFC’s best too. Coast Guard backslid to three wins last year after consecutive eight-win seasons, while the Panthers are 19-3 the past two seasons. With high hopes and losses already on the ledger, this clash should be high stakes.
Pat’s take: Massachusetts Maritime at Endicott. And even if it’s not the most interesting team story line, after the performance Mass Maritime running back Nathan Sherr has put up in the first two weeks (15-162 with a touchdown against SUNY-Maritime and 26-325-3 against MIT), it provides an individual worth watching. By the way, for those keeping track, Sherr outrushed Brown by 177 yards last week.

Triple Take, Week 1: Welcome to a new season

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Though Week 1 features only one game between Top 25 teams, polling is hardly the only way to pick which games could be among the most significant and interesting.

From battles halfway across the country to cross-town rivalries, every team opening this weekend enters the season with the highest expectations. For some, such as Mount Union, those expectations are nothing short of a national championship. For others, such as Wittenberg, they may include trying to make it though the season injury-free. And yet others, such as Millsaps, might be anxious to see how they perform after graduating a superstar athlete.

Each week, Friday’s Triple Take — which will feature a roundtable of panelists consisting of D3football.com Editor and Publisher Pat Coleman, Managing Editor and National Columnist Keith McMillan, and Senior Editor and Mid-Atlantic Columnist Ryan Tipps — will try to predict some what’s to come on Saturday, while rooting out unique games and teams to keep an eye on, among other things.

The bar is at different levels for different teams; success can be found in many forms. Not every team this year will fall in line with their expectations, but the fun part is watching them try.

To comment on the Daily Dose, you’ll need to register. There’s a link for that on the bottom of the right-hand rail of this page.

— Ryan Tipps

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 20 Christopher Newport at No. 9 Wesley. The threat of tropical weather ended last year’s meeting before it ever got started. The anticipation, though, remains. Wesley graduated many of its stars from the past couple of years, including three 2008 starting linebackers. What’s that mean for CNU? Well, the window may be open just enough to squeeze in an upset, especially with a bigger, stronger Tunde Ogun at running back.
Keith’s take: Whitworth at No. 5 Hardin-Simmons. I don’t really like to suggest a Week 1 game is must-win or has playoff implications, but with the visiting Pirates following the opener with games against Redlands (7-2 in ‘08), No. 8 Willamette (11-1) and Linfield (6-3) among its first six, and with the Cowboys going to Linfield next, then playing Louisiana College (7-3), Mississippi College (5-5 with star QB injured) and No. 3 UMHB (12-2), the winner here banks a key victory. The loser faces an uphill climb.
Pat’s take: Millsaps at Mississippi College. I’m looking forward to a good chapter in the Backyard Brawl history books, with Mississippi College having the upper hand in terms of experience this time around.

Surprisingly close game
Ryan’s take: Thomas More at John Carroll. The 41-14 drubbing enjoyed by the Blue Streaks last year likely won’t be repeated. And it’s not because JCU is too much worse for wear. Instead, it’s because the Saints have a lot of returners who got a sampling of the postseason in 2008 and have a renewed drive to get back there in ‘09.
Keith’s take: Morrisville State at Hartwick. The Mustangs were 1-9 last season and the Hawks were 7-3, but Hartwick is bound to look different without quarterback Jason Boltus and wide receiver Jack Phelan powering the nation’s second-most-prolific offense. Morrisville State returns seven starters from a defense that can only be better after giving up 38.2 points per game this season. The Hawks might sputter a little as new quarterback Brian Radley gets his feet wet.
Pat’s take: No. 8 Willamette at Concordia-Moorhead. This is a game I really wish I could be at. I could make the 480-mile round trip, but I did that sort of thing last year a lot and I was pretty burnt out by the time the playoffs rolled around. Got to pace myself better this year. In terms of this game, Willamette has to win some games to prove to me that it can do it without Merben Woo, and perhaps more importantly, Grant Leslie. The guy threw 19 touchdowns last year and just three interceptions and Ryan Whitcomb, this year’s starter, threw three TD passes in 2007 when the team went 4-6.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 19 Franklin. It’s a grisly prospect for the Grizzlies. All-America quarterback Chad Rupp is gone — along with more than half of last year’s starters on offense. The defensive depletion is even gloomier. This is not the team I’d prefer to take into a game against any OAC team, let alone Baldwin-Wallace.
Keith’s take: No. 19 Franklin. I don’t mean it as a knock on the strength of the Grizzlies’ potential longevity, as recruiting is generally pretty fertile after consecutive playoff appearances. But I’d be doing a disservice by ignoring how talented the seniors Franklin lost were and just assuming the program picks up where it left off.
Pat’s take: I might have given it away earlier, but No. 8 Willamette.

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: Hardin-Simmons. The Cowboys have the potential to be an undefeated team this regular season — and well into the playoffs. Getting there won’t be easy (starting this weekend against Whitworth), but if the offensive line comes together and gives quarterback Justin Feaster time to make decisions, this will be a tough team to corral.
Keith’s take: No. 17 Wartburg. Iowa’s orange and black-clad Knights head north to take on their Green brethren at St. Norbert. And while Wartburg has opened with a top MWC team (either Monmouth or SNC) three seasons running and has yet to win by fewer than 20, in the opener I’d still like to see a team closer to the one that pushed UW-Whitewater in last season’s playoffs than the one that needed overtime to beat 2-8 Dubuque.
Pat’s take: Adrian. Wins against OAC teams are hard to come by in the non-conference schedule. Adrian will have to do it without two-time MIAA offensive MVP Troy Niblock, but has an experienced replacement at quarterback and a good number back on defense going into the opener at home against Capital.

Which 2008 playoff team will have the rockiest opening week?
Ryan’s take: Willamette. For an NWC team, traveling far and wide is hardly foreign. But going 1,500 miles in Week 1 can’t be easy. Plus, with how much the Bearcats will have to reload, beating Concordia-Moorhead could be a challenge.
Keith’s take: LaGrange. It’s worth noting that Trine needed a fourth-quarter rally to win its opener at Manchester on Thursday night, because if not, the Thunder might already have this one sewn up. I look at the Panthers here because of the internal struggle players have to respect their opponents. It’s easy for LaGrange to think of itself as a 9-2 team from last year and B-SC as a 3-7 group and forget it needed two late Drew Carter-to-Devin Bilings touchdown passes, the last with 23 seconds left, to beat those Panthers, 34-31, in last year’s opener.
Pat’s take: Curry. They’re a little paranoid up in Milton, Mass., where they wouldn’t even commit to a style of offense on the record or off the record two weeks before the season started. They must think Bentley is pretty good.

Which bubble team has the best chance of breaking into the next Top 25 poll?
Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley. I’m a little surprised the Aggies aren’t part of the top two bits already. A win against Johns Hopkins, one of the favorites to win the Centennial, should give Del Val the kind of credibility that was so sporadic (and, ultimately, elusive) in ‘08. With the Blue Jays able to crow about a highly potent run game, led on the line by a preseason All-American, a Del Val win would truly be sweet success.
Keith’s take: Millsaps. St. John Fisher is also receiving votes at “No. 31” and would be a lock to surge into the top 25 with an upset of No. 1 Mount Union, but I’m going to go ahead and assume that by “best chance” we mean “most realistic chance.” In which case, a Majors win and one ranked team’s loss would seem to move them in from the 26 spot.
Pat’s take: Trinity (Texas). I actually don’t feel strongly about any of the teams in the 26-32 range. Trine has already struggled this week, I think Millsaps may well lose, Salisbury is playing a team it should beat and beyond that, I think teams are pretty far off.

Most significant game against a non-Division III opponent.
Ryan’s take: Curry at Bentley. The Colonels raised eyebrows last year with a postseason win for the perennially discounted NEFC. Have fortunes faded since that November day? A test will come against Division II’s Bentley, which already has one game — a win — under its belt this season. A victory for Curry should not be taken lightly.
Keith’s take: Pace at Salisbury. The Gulls take on a team picked to finish in the mid-to-lower part of the Division II Northeast-10, as do Curry, Plymouth State and Worcester State. The difference in significance for Salisbury, however, is that without an automatic playoff bid to chase, and with six Division III perennial winners on the schedule, a strong start is imperative.
Pat’s take: No. 2 UW-Whitewater at Dickinson State. The Blue Hawks were a preseason No. 15 in the NAIA coaches poll, though they lost to Rocky Mountain College last week. That gives them a game under their belts and a home game while Whitewater takes a 12-hour bus ride since no D-III team will play them. This could spell trouble for our defending runner-up.

The first look at next season

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SALEM — You shoulda got ’em this year.

Mount Union and UW-Whitewater each had to replace significant chunks of their lineups for 2008, with the graduation of dominant senior classes. There were questions coming into the season, and frankly, the Road to Salem was as wide open as we’ve seen in years.

But now that the Purple Raiders and Warhawks have traveled that road, mostly in dominant fashion, once again, it’s fair to look ahead and wonder how anyone can overcome them.

Certainly in football there are upsets, injuries, weather and other factors that play into who emerges victorious at the end of a 10-game season backed by a 32-team playoff. That’s half the fun, nothing is a given.

But Mount Union started eight seniors today: QB Greg Micheli, RB Nate Kmic, T Luke Summers, G James Bird, TE Chad Reynolds, DE Joseph Millings, LB Chas Yoder and CB Daryl Ely. They also started 12 juniors and two sophomores, a nucleus that — while without their stars in the backfield — will likely be favored to return to Salem.

UW-Whitewater, which started three seniors (Ts Mike Sherman and Rob Gilbreath, and MLB Jace Rindahl), is even better positioned to make a run next season. QB Jeff Donovan is a junior, RB Antwan Anderson is a sophomore and RB Levell Coppage is a freshman. Altogether, Whitewater started 12 juniors, five sophomores and two freshmen in the Stagg Bowl.

One thing that doesn’t sound like it will be happening is a Purple Raiders-Warhawks regular-season matchup. Mount Union has nine conference games locked and UW-Whitewater has seven, and a game in the first week of ’09 and ’10 is possible. The teams played in that slot in ’02 and ’03, but Mount Union coach Larry Kehres was jokingly noncommittal after the Stagg Bowl.

“I was stupid enough to wear a stocking cap this week and get caught on video,” he said, referring to an incident at the Stagg Bowl luncheon where Kehres’ picture was shown on a big screen. “But I’m not stupid enough to schedule Whitewater in the regular season.”

Perhaps its a show of respect from Kehres, who now has a rival program capable of beating his team in any given season. But if UW-Whitewater is considered on Mount Union’s level, or close to it, that’s not good news for the rest of us. Sure, we have our conference titles to chase and playoff games to participate in, but if there are two dominant powers, and no one could stop their inexperienced rosters from getting to Salem, what makes us think we’ll be able to stop them any time soon?

Are we destined for more of the same?

The floor is open for well-supported arguments for teams that might break the Purple cycle.