Four teams clinched postseason berths last week, and more are sure to make the dance this week. In some cases, as was mentioned in the ATN Podcast, it’s going to mean learning tiebreaking procedures. Conferences such as the CCIW, SCAC and CC have the potential of becoming a little crowded at the top with these final two weeks arriving. Highlighting some of the nation’s most interesting matchups for Saturday are Ryan Tipps, Keith McMillan and Pat Coleman:
Game of the Week.
Ryan’s take: No. 12 Wheaton at No. 19 Illinois Wesleyan. There’s no question as to the magnitude of the shakeup in the CCIW, and with the loser on the fringes of Pool C chances with one loss already, this game could be do-or-die for these guys. Few teams have been able to score more than twice against the Titans this season, so keeping them off their game with a mix of rushers and receivers — which Wheaton is good at anyway — will be important for allowing the Thunder to move the ball.
Keith’s take: Albright at No. 20 Delaware Valley. The Aggies are the first of two 7-1 “Valley†teams that the Lions close the season with. The MAC title implications are obvious, but for those far from Pennsylvania holding out hope that the East Region can produce a playoff No. 1 seed for the first time in three years, you’ll want to root for Albright. At 10-0, with consecutive wins over one-loss teams, the Lions might have a shot. (Or they could lose both and play their way out of the postseason. No pressure though!)
Pat’s take: No. 10 St. Thomas at Bethel. Not to be the West Region homer again, sheesh, but both teams desperately need this game. A lot has been made of the teams’ at-large chances, but their MIAC title hopes aren’t entirely finished either, with St. John’s quarterback Joe Boyle out with a hand injury. Bethel comes in at 6-2, but with last-second losses to Wheaton and St. John’s. Promise I’m not just picking this game because I plan to be there.
Surprisingly close game.
Ryan’s take: Huntingdon at Birmingham-Southern. B-S might have four losses on the season, but a true blowout has happened only once. The Panthers are a far better squad this season than the 3-14 representation of its first two years, yet they will still have to be stepping up their game to be able to keep the Hawks’ point totals in check.
Keith’s take: William Paterson at Kean. The Cougars are so close to cementing the fact they’ve lifted the program out of the doldrums with an NJAC title and a playoff berth that it’d be hard not to look ahead to next week’s game with Montclair State. But great teams focus on the task at hand, and the 4-4 Pioneers have not been an easy victory for anybody. Three of their losses are by seven points or fewer, and three are to 7-1 Montclair, 6-2 Cortland (12-10) and 6-2 Rowan. Kean has to make sure it isn’t the good team that William Paterson finally knocks off.
Pat’s take: Allegheny at No. 14 Wittenberg. Especially if you like defense. Both teams are regionally ranked. Hard to picture Allegheny putting up more than the season-high seven points that Wittenberg has allowed all season, but the Gators might be able to keep it low-scoring, ergo, close.
Most likely Top 25 team to get upset.
Ryan’s take: No. 20 Delaware Valley, by Albright. While the Aggies’ backup quarterback barely missed a beat in his first start last week against King’s, undefeated Albright will pose a much more dangerous threat. Both team are vying for the MAC’s automatic qualifier, and all someone has to do is look at the stat sheets to see that one of these two teams lead the conference in almost every category. Maybe it’ll come down to who simply wants it more. But for a Top 25 Aggies squad, it won’t be a surprise if the Lions have the better hunt.
Keith’s take: No. 6 Central, by Wartburg. At 5-3, this is what’s referred to as a down year for the Knights. Nothing would perk it back up like a win over the rival Dutch, who could quite possibly be kicking up their feet mentally now that they’ve clinched the IIAC title and playoff spot. I wouldn’t bet on that though, as you don’t have to live in Iowa to know both teams get up for this game. No one’s kept it close with Central since Sept., so maybe they’re due for a nail-biter.
Pat’s take: No. 3 Wesley, by Lake Erie. It sounds like it’s been a trying week for the Wolverines. Lake Erie is a D-II school, barely, in just its second year of football and its second season at the Division II level. But the Storm have won four games in a row, including a home win against Salisbury. The only question in my mind is that this is a Wesley home game and a long trip from Ohio.
They’ll be on your radar.
Ryan’s take: Trine. The Thunder have already clinched a share of the MIAA title, but a win tomorrow means the automatic qualifier as well. Some opponents have played Trine closer than they should have, and Adrian will be one of the two or three best teams to line up against the team from Angola, Ind. Trine’s Achilles’ heel may be its pass defense, which could pose a problem with junior Mike McGee, who has thrown for 1,857 yards so far, starting for the Bulldogs.
Keith’s take: Mississippi College. The Choctaws had it all in their hands before a seven-turnover loss to Howard Payne on Saturday. They can still win the ASC and make the playoffs, but I’ll be watching closely this week to see how they bounce back from being humbled, and how they handle the insanely long trip to Sul Ross State, which a few hours from the middle of nowhere, as the joke goes. Alpine, Texas is much closer than that to the Mexican border.
Pat’s take: Hampden-Sydney. The Tigers haven’t been unbeaten this late in the season in quite some time. Although Salisbury is going to present a challenge that’s a little different than what the Tigers have seen this season, they have had an off week to prepare for the Sea Gulls’ option attack and need to finish with two wins to both lock down the ODAC title and guarantee a playoff home game.
A team that will clinch a share of the conference title on Saturday.
Ryan’s take: North Carolina Wesleyan. I’m making this pick not because the of how big a splash the Bishops are going to make this weekend by beating Shenandoah but rather because I think NCWC’s biggest threat to the postseason, Averett, is going to lose. That will leave the Cougars with two losses and put NCWC into the playoffs by way of the head-to-head win over Christopher Newport. Averett has had too many close calls for me to be confident that they can win out these last two games, which will be among their most grueling of the season.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater. Of the nine or so teams that have a chance to clinch on Saturday, none really have easy games. I think most of them will clinch, with an upset or two sprinkled in, but it’s not easy to anticipate just where those upsets will come. So when in doubt, lean on the team least likely to be upset. Normally that’d be Mount Union, but I’ll pay Otterbein some respect and say Whitewater will get it done against UW-Oshkosh. Way out on a limb picking a team outscoring it’s competition 41-7, on average, I know.
Pat’s take: Delaware Valley. I just think that Delaware Valley has to be far better prepared for this game. In the first five weeks of the season the Aggies played Johns Hopkins, Kean, Wesley and Lebanon Valley, teams that are a combined 28-4. Albright did not have a single non-conference opponent of that caliber and hasn’t played Lebanon Valley yet either. Tanner Kelly gives Albright a successful veteran quarterback, but Delaware Valley has a defense that has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed, gives up just 154 yards per game and allows 50 percent completions. Just saying.
Which season turnaround has been the most interesting?
Ryan’s take: Gallaudet. More than any other time in their three-year return to Division III, the Bison have found a way to consistently put points on the board. They’ve outrushed opponents more than 2-1 this year, with four players each racking up between 419 and 951 yards on the ground. Comparing year-to-year scores is impressive: Against Husson, a 49-0 loss last year became a 10-7 win this year; an overtime loss to Hiram in ‘07 was now a 34-7 win. For a team that’s rebuilding itself on the varsity level, Gallaudet is taking some big leaps.
Keith’s take: Concordia (Ill.). The Cougars went 0-10 three times between 2002 and ‘05, and hadn’t had better than a three-win season since we started the site. That they’re in control in the Northern Athletics Conference (that looks like a three-way tie, but the Cougars have beaten Lakeland and Concordia, Wis., the latter last Saturday in overtime) is no small feat. It seems as though teaching of head coach Lonnie Pries, hired in 2006, has sunk in as his first bunch of upperclassmen make their impact. The Cougars finish with a pair of 4-4 teams, Aurora and Benedictine, and for teams not used to winning, being consistent week to week is sometimes the highest hurdle.
Pat’s take: McMurry. Looking at their schedule, it’s like a light bulb turned on: four losses by an average of 41-19 followed by four wins by an average score of 38-21. Now, the schedule had a wee bit to do with that, but it’s still an interesting turnaround. And let’s be honest, the numbers are fun to look at: 328.9 yards passing and 41.2 rushing per game.
Which team will log its first win of the season?
Ryan’s take: Frostburg State, at Newport News. The Bobcats have picked up momentum against Division III teams during the second half of the season, playing close games against Ithaca and Randolph-Macon. This week, FSU lines up against conference opponent Newport News Apprentice, which won’t be able to stop the Bobcats if they get into a groove airing out the ball.
Keith’s take: Bates, against Bowdoin. Four of the Bobcats’ six losses were by 10 points or fewer, including the past three, so they haven’t given up. With Maine, NESCAC and CBB rival Bowdoin at 2-4 but averaging about as many points as it gives up, it’s not a given for Bates. But it could very well be one of those not-that-pretty, gut-it-out kind of wins, the kind that feel so sweet when it’s the only one you’ve had, and it’s against a rival.
Pat’s take: Rockford, at Maranatha Baptist. Although the Crusaders had reason for a little more optimism when the season started, this season hasn’t really looked any better than 2008, and after that season, we ranked Maranatha last overall. Against common opponents, Rockford and Maranatha have had strikingly similar results. Something in my gut thinks Rockford, which played a tougher non-conference schedule, is good enough to be a hair better here.