Triple-take: The quarterfinals

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Looking like a tough weekend weatherwise in parts of the bracket this weekend.

I, for example, am projecting missed extra points in the North and West regional finals because of weather. But those are only a point or two either direction.

In last week’s picks, Keith and I both went 8-for-8 and Gordon was 7-for-8. Gordon got his in just under the gun, in a comment post eight minutes before kickoff.

Mount Union 59, New Jersey 7. Closest pick, Gordon (Mount Union 42-7). None picked TCNJ with more than seven points.
St. John Fisher 38, Curry 7. Closest pick, Pat (SJF 31-10). All three had St. John Fisher in the 30s.
Central 37, St. John’s 7. Closest pick, Pat (barely, Central 27-24).
Bethel 21, UW-Eau Claire 12. Closest pick, Gordon (Bethel 21-17).
Mary Hardin-Baylor 64, N.C. Wesleyan 0. Closest pick, Pat (UMHB 48-21).
Wesley 38, Muhlenberg 21. Closest pick, Pat (Wesley 28-20).
UW-Whitewater 59, North Central 28. Closest pick, Pat (UWW 38-17).
Wabash 38, Case Western Reserve 23. Closest pick, Pat (Wabash 30-19).

Here’s our take on the regional finals.

South Region
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 41, Wesley 27
Keith: Wesley 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 31 (OT)
Gordon: Mary Hardin-Baylor 28 Wesley 20

West Region
Pat: Central 20, Bethel 13
Keith: Central 29, Bethel 16
Gordon: Bethel 24 Central 21 (OT)

North Region
Pat: UW-Whitewater 34, Wabash 20
Keith: UW-Whitewater 44, Wabash 21
Gordon: UW-Whitewater 30 Wabash 17

East Region
Pat: Mount Union 40, St. John Fisher 17
Keith: Mount Union 45, St. John Fisher 27
Gordon: Mount Union 35 St. John Fisher 21

247 thoughts on “Triple-take: The quarterfinals”

  1. Pat your score looks the most realistic for the Mount SJF game. If Keith and Gordan are right, and SJF scores that many points, they may win. I’m thinking more along the lines of Mount 45-10.

    later,

  2. I agree on Pat’s pics, except, of course, the UW-W–Wabash game. The mighty Little Giants to prevail in a classic: 19-16. Go Red.

  6. You Wabash guys here to make your homer picks (which isn’t a problem in and of itself), feel free to pick the other three games too. 🙂

  7. MUC 45-SJF 24….like the original said I hope it is reversed but I can’t see SJF D keeping up for 4 quarters. Anyone know of any webcasts or anyway for an Eastern fan to watch any of the games on Sat?

  8. Gordon,
    What is with no belief in the Dutch 2 weeks in a row!! We blow out St Johns when you pick us to lose by three, a SJU team that lost to Bethel by 3, and now were going to lose to Bethel at home? Ouch…Well see about that Saturday at about 3:30!!

  11. Fisher will score… Look for 30, or so… However, holding MUC is the challenge… If we get a break or two, who knows… Going to be a better game than pat and Keith are picking… Talk more on Saturday afternoon (On my way to Alliance)…

  12. All of you have at least 13 points between Wabash And WW. Do you think this will be like last week where the Warhawks pull away at the end or do you see a spead the entire game?
    Wesley 31 MHB 24
    Central 34 Bethel 21
    WW 45 Wabash 21
    MUC 38 SJF 31

  13. My picks would be Wesley, Central, Wabash and Mount Union, although I haven’t done enough homework to predict scores on at least three of those games. Bleedpurple would argue I haven’t done enough to predict a score for Wabash-Whitewater, but I’ll go with Wabash 24, Whitewater 20. 24 hours ’til things really start heating up again!

  14. Picks are————–MHB by 13
    Central by 10
    MUC by 13
    Wabash by 1

    You guys that picked Wesley————–I hope you end up eating crow after the weekend.

    Rematch with UWW———-bad day for MHB the last game———-can’t do that against good teams like UWW but the rematch(if there is one) won’t be the same———-MHB over UWW by 17

  15. While I am not positive on the final scores, my final four consists of

    Mount Union vs Bethel

    UWW vs UMHB

    All four games should be fun to watch. Best of luck to everyone!

  16. Just like previous years, UMHB will not get it done even though they may have the better squad

    Wesley 35 UMHB 24

    Mt Union will have its closest game of the year (which they should because this is the best opponent that they have met to date). It is interesting that Mt Union’s first game of next year will be against Fisher as the two will start a home and home series. Maybe this is the beginning of a rivalry.

    MT Union 38 SJF 28

    Central’s close calls for the year finally come to an end against a solid Bethel team

    Bethel 30 Central 19

    UWW will blow out Wabash in the most lopsided game of the four.

    UWW 42 Wabash 20

  18. I’ll be shocked if Fisher scores 30 on Mount Union. If they have to score that much to win forget about it. If it is a close game it will be low scoring. I’ll run around Salem Stadium naked (if Mount goes) if they give up 30 points to Fisher.

  20. no video feeds for muc v sjf, disappointing. weather for the game expected to be good. light wind as opposed the the strong winds of last year. Obvious help to the passing games, particularly SJF, I think.

  22. Ric:

    (sorry about the prior post)

    It sounds as if you think it would be a shock if Fisher scored 30 pts on MUC, but that another team out there could? Or do think that nobody is capable of such an incredible feat?

    Ithaca did score 18 (3rd team from E8), and as I understand, had as many as 2 other drives in the red zone.

  23. Pat:

    Why do you think that MUC will be able to handle SJF in the same fashion as they handled Ithaca (that SJF beat on the road by 3 tds).

    Note: I am not suggesting that I disagree with your prediction, nor am I suggesting that SJF has a shot in hell to win, just curious as to what your opinion may be based upon.

  24. Dutchhawk, don’t worry, the way I see it, Gordan picking against the Dutch has replaced Central being behind at halftime as an omen for how the game will go. It has worked for us so far, do we really want to have him pick us to win?

    The Dutch may have to go back to the “find a way” philosophy for this game, but I think they get it done.

  25. Yeah,
    I wouldn’t go nuts arguing with me over my score projections. I just got done writing about Fisher and Mount Union’s defense, so now I’m wondering why I projected so many points. But maybe with Stepnick out and Fisher being so balanced on offense, and the offensive coaches having seen the defenses before, the score will end up that way.

    Re: Wesley-UMHB, I was torn on that one until the end. I just figure you gotta go with the streaking team until the other one proves you wrong.

    Point is, I can envision these games in a lot of ways, and by choosing to do the picks, we voluntarily lock ourselves into one projected outcome, but in reality, I can personally envision any game going a number of different ways.

    One factor that seemed to gain a little steam but wasn’t mentioned a lot was UWW trying to defend the Wabash spread. Neither side sounded very confident that UWW would be great at it, but there’s so much more to the Warhawks than that.

    Someone asked on another thread which team in last ATN I thought would give UWW the most trouble. :sheepish grin: Capital.

    Wesley also asked that I pick UMHB again as it seemed to work out for them before. Um, I hope I’m not a jinx.

    Webcast, schmebcast … D3football.com is on the air from all four sites Saturday. Kick back and envision the game in your heads. I’ll try to spin some prose from Dover to help you all out 🙂

  26. Wow, 8-for-8 on winners last week, 0-for-8 on closest score

    *cough*Patcheats*cough*

    You guys that picked Wesley————–I hope you end up eating crow after the weekend.

    Well if you cook it right … Texas-style?

    Which reminds me:
    Remember to show your visiting team hospitality before the game, especially the dudes making the rather crazy treks from Texas to Delaware or NY to eastern Ohio. Or even Indiana to SE Wisconsin.

    Arden Hills to Pella, fine, you can get props too.

    Be good D3 hosts tomorrow, tailgate hospitably until about 11:30 … then kick the chumps with the wrong-colored shirts off your turf 🙂

    Will probably stop in tonight sometime to discuss picks if people have specific questions.

  27. Ithaca scored on two drives of half the field or less and the third was 65. Taking nothing away from them. Mount made the mistake of over preparing for the run and they said as much. They got into the redzone one other time not two. I don’t know who made that up but it is not a fact.

    I doubt anyone will score 30 on Mount this year unless we have a 17-17 tie after regulation and multiple overtimes. They’ve only given up 30 points twice in the last seven years and one team scored 17 4th quarter points to do it an they other had a six-year starter at QB that threw for over 10,000 yards.

    Just speaking on experience, to beat Mount typically you don’t outscore them, you slow them down and control the ball. If St. John Fisher tries to outscore Mount they will not win. If they control the clock and keep the ball away from Mount they can win. In other words it would be much more likely for the Raiders to lose 24-17 than 38-31 in my opinion.

  28. If the weather turns out like it’s “supposed” to then Wabash can forget about slinging the ball all over the place at Perkins Stadium tommorow, it’s supposed to be nasty. But, of course I’ll be there. It will be interesting to see if the weather does indeed affect the game.

  30. To Keith and Pat,

    Do you think that Mt Union and St John’s Fisher have the makings of a rivalry given that they will play at least four years in a row.? Will SJF win any of the remaining three games? Will this be good for D3 football?

  31. Pat Coleman Says:

    November 30th, 2007 at 12:23 pm
    You Wabash guys here to make your homer picks (which isn’t a problem in and of itself), feel free to pick the other three games too.

    Fair enough Pat….

    Mount Union 42 SJF 21
    UMHB 35 Wesley 28
    Wabash 17 UWW 14 (yes, its a homer pick)
    Central 28 Bethel 17

  32. i am trying not to laugh at the predictions of the points scored by umhb tomorrow. 30’s and 40’s is just not going to happen. wesley has given up 40 or more only 3 times in the last 2 seasons, twice to whitewater and once to brockport. in order for umhb to score that many, the wesley defense will have to have a total breakdown or they will have at least 3 turnovers, neither of which i think is going to happen. wesley wins this game because they are the better team, 27 – 17.

  33. Mille125:

    Im not Keith or Pat, but I will tell you that the Fisher guys defintley see this as a rivalry in making. The best team they have faced and will face so far for each team are eachother. depending on what happens tommorrow, rivalry may come sooner than later. 🙂 This will be good because if Fisher can manage an upset in any of the 3 games, which I think they can, than D3 looks like a more even keeled division. Whenever fisher wins a game, thats when Mt. Union becomes engaged enough to call it a rivalry.

    Ric –
    I agree. lower score for Fisher to win. out block and out tackle and work as a team and they can win.

    I am not calling a score, because that is a superstition, but expect a close one. Whoever can capitalize on mistakes by the other team, wins.

  34. # mille125 Says:
    November 30th, 2007 at 2:01 pm

    Central’s close calls for the year finally come to an end against a solid Bethel team

    Bethel 30 Central 19

    Central has beat Olivet 38-17 and then St Johns 37-7 (worst defeat since MUC beat them in 1993). I think the Dutch have made close calls a thing of the regular season.

    Go Dutch!!

  37. The owner of my previous employer was a Bethel graduate who relocated to Texas. I did not get along with this individual. So I admit to a bias. Most importantly, I’m an lg fan. WABASH ALWAYS FIGHTS!

  38. Mille125,
    I like the thought that a rivalry could develop. I would think it possible that if Mount remains at their current level and Fisher continues to improve there is a decent chance that they meet in the regular season and the post season over the next 2 years. I agree with rachacha though that it will take a Fisher victory in one or more of the games to make it a rivalry in the eyes of the Mount players and fans. I can remember playing the UofR in the early years of the program and never beating them, we at Fisher thought it was a rivalry game, my friends that played at the UofR used to point out to me that it’s not a rivalry if we never win, funny bunch weren’t they?….luckily that has changed and hopefully over the coming games our fortunes will change with Mount Union as well. In any event kudos to both SJFC and MUC for scheduling one another in the season opener in both 08′ and 09′ and good luck to both squads tomorrow. I’m hoping for the improbable tomorrow…but expecting it to end up MUC 35 SJFC 24.

  40. I personally hope LK sees this thread and allows his D to give up 30 pts to SJF just so we can all see Ric run around Salem stadium naked. That would sell out a stagg bowl if anything would!!

  41. Just a quick note on the possible field conditions for the Central game. Supposed to get freezing rain, and snow mix throughout the day starting early in the morning and continuing through the evening. First team to 20 wins this one. I see it being pretty low scoring and the Dutch passing attack could be a bit hampered. Central still squeaks it out: 16-14.

  42. I’m on record already for Dutch and Bethel, even though the weather will be terrible the Dutch score 4 times.
    Central 28 Bethel 10
    It seems UMHB is better than the previous UWW game may indicate
    UMHB 30 Wesley 20
    Warhawks prov to be one of the elite teams, even in the ice
    UWW 38 Wabash 14
    I thin SJF has a strong offensive showing relatively speaking
    Mt Union 40 SJF 21

  43. I won’t question your homework on the UWW-Wabash game atmgr82. I have no doubt you did more homework on this game than I did or that most on this board did on most games. I also believe you have no clue as to what is in store for “Big Red” tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon you will find out where your research got you.

    UWW 31
    Wabash 13

    Mt. Union 52
    St. John’s Fisher 17

    Central 30
    Bethel 21

    My CaptainCru special
    UMHB 24
    Wesley 21

    This one is for you capt. Next week UWW will teach you a “be careful what you wish for lesson!” Let’s put it this way, If the match up next week is UWW-UMHB, I will be buying my non-refundable airline tickets to Virginia THIS Saturday night to watch UWW make their 3rd consecutive appearance in the Stagg Bowl!

  46. dutchhawk

    everyone knows that olivet was the weakest team in the entire 32 team field and bethel has also beaten st johns….in the end it will be a long day for the dutch….

  47. kudos to both muc and sjf for scheduling each other for 2008 and 2009…my alma mater W&J should do the same if they want to compete again at a national and regional level instead of just at a conference level……

  48. Hey anyone up late or surfing Saturday morning thinking about SJF-MUC, I thought the SJF school paper did a nice job, from what I could tell. Didn’t get to read that much of it, but it was presented really well and hit from all angles.

    http://media.www.cardinalcourieronline.com/media/paper1247/sections/20071114EyeOnMountUnion.html

    Really wanted to highlight some other articles around the country about the remaining D3 teams … you know, for AFTER you get done with ours 🙂

  49. Now, wesleydad who’s not showing respect. get ready for a defensive break-down the CRU will CRU-ISE(pun intended). this is a very well balanced football TEAM and thay’re ready to take care of business. wesley doesn’t put 21 up umhb 50+…
    take that to the bank….no disrespect intended(well yeah there is), GO CRU…wesleydad i expect you to give credit where do after the game tomorrow…i will be….have a great day 🙂

  50. I’ll try my hand at this, but I should first admit, I am in near dead last in the confidence pool at the office.
    MUC wins by 21
    MHB wins by 7
    Central wins by 20
    UWW- I won’t jinx my team.

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