D3football.com editor and publisher Pat Coleman and I first took stabs at playoff scores on a meandering ride from our Northern Virginia home base to Thiel (Northwestern Pa.) for a 2005 first-round game against Johns Hopkins. Though we might have been just trying to kill time then, what we found when we compared our guesses, er, predictions turned out to be interesting enough to share. We gave it another try the next week and away we went, doing it again in 2006.
We brought the tradition back for a third year, bringing another wise mind, Gordon Mann, on board for the ride and making it our weekly Triple-take. The goal isn’t to prove which of the three of us is smartest or coolest — that’s obvious, right?. It’s to give fans from Curry to Redlands and everywhere in between an idea of what is expected to happen.
We’re well aware that this is the playoffs, when top teams face off in high-pressure situations, ensuring things don’t always go according to plan. It’s when respect is earned and minds are changed.
So cut us a break if we don’t pick your team by a satisfying score. There are reasons to like everyone that’s left, but our job is to be honest. You might find that even we can’t agree on which way these games will go.
We did not consult with each other at all — the three of us did our score predictions separately.
We’d like to hear what you think too, under two conditions: 1. We keep the bashing of each other to a bare minimum, and 2. You flesh out your thoughts a little bit.
Sound good? Then here goes, beginning in the East:
Ithaca at Mount Union
Coleman: Mount Union 42, Ithaca 10
Mann: Mount Union 42, Ithaca 7
McMillan: Mount Union 52, Ithaca 7
New Jersey at RPI
Coleman: TCNJ 14, RPI 6
Mann: RPI 21, TCNJ 17
McMillan: TCNJ 13, RPI 10
Hartwick at Curry
Coleman: Hartwick 32, Curry 28
Mann: Hartwick 43, Curry 42
McMillan: Hartwick 33, Curry 27, OT
Hobart at St. John Fisher
Coleman: St. John Fisher 38, Hobart 28
Mann: St. John Fisher 31, Hobart 28, OT
McMillan: St. John Fisher 35, Hobart 34
Olivet at Central
Coleman:Central 41, Olivet 14
Mann: Central 35, Olivet 21
McMillan: Central 40, Olivet 7
Redlands at St. John’s
Coleman: St. John’s 27, Redlands 17
Mann: St. John’s 28, Redlands 21
McMillan: St. John’s 21, Redlands 20
UW-Eau Claire at St. Norbert
Coleman: Eau Claire 24, St. Norbert 21
Mann: Eau Claire 21, St. Norbert 10
McMillan: St. Norbert 28, Eau Claire 21
Concordia (Wis.) at Bethel
Coleman: Bethel 41, Concordia 6
Mann: Bethel 35, Concordia 7
McMillan: Bethel 30, Concordia 13
North Carolina Wesleyan at Washington and Jefferson
Coleman: Washington and Jefferson 50, N.C. Wesleyan 16
Mann: Washington and Jefferson 31, N.C. Wesleyan 21
McMillan: N.C. Wesleyan 38, Washington and Jefferson 35
Trinity (Texas) at Mary Hardin-Baylor
Coleman: Mary Hardin-Baylor 41, Trinity 14
Mann: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Trinity 14
McMillan: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Trinity 24
Salisbury at Muhlenberg
Coleman: Salisbury 31, Muhlenberg 27
Mann: Salisbury 20, Muhlenberg 14
McMillan: Salisbury 20, Muhlenberg 14
Hampden-Sydney at Wesley
Coleman: Wesley 35, Hampden-Sydney 28
Mann: Wesley 28, Hampden-Sydney 21
McMillan: Wesley 35, Hampden-Sydney 13
Capital at UW-Whitewater
Coleman: Whitewater 20, Capital 13
Mann: Whitewater 21, Capital 7
McMillan: Whitewater 24, Capital 12
North Central at Franklin
Coleman: North Central 35, Franklin 34
Mann: North Central 31, Franklin 21
McMillan: North Central 33, Franklin 30, 2 OT
Mt. St. Joseph at Wabash
Coleman: Wabash 30, Mt. St. Joseph 21
Mann: Wabash 21, Mt. St. Joseph 10
McMillan: Wabash 34, Mt. St. Joseph 21
Widener at Case Western Reserve
Coleman: Widener 20, Case Western 17
Mann: Widener 17, Case Western 14, OT
McMillan: Case Western 22, Widener 14
Unanimous favorites: Mount Union, Hartwick, St. John Fisher, Central, St. John’s, Bethel, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Salisbury, Wesley, UW-Whitewater, North Central, Wabash
By split decision: TCNJ, UW-Eau Claire, Washington and Jefferson, Widener
Very interesting picks fellas. I am surprised by a few; Can TCNJ really handle RPI’s spread O? It seems to cause problems for many, it will be interesting to see. I think this is going to be Robertsons opportunity to really show he can control a “big gam.” I believe this is his first NCAA tourney. The Fisher picks surprise me as well? All three of you guys think that Fisher is going to shut down the Statesmen? Also I’d like to hear more about the Muhlenburg game? They showed a lot of poise throughout the season and didn’t crack at all. Is Salisbury that strong that they are deserving of a unanimous pick of the Mules? Thanks for the predictions guys! Again you guys always come up with such great stuff to keep us all thinking and watching! Also would a Curry victory mean that they are for real? I don’t think so, I think they really need to win two to be able to be taken seriously. I still can’t let go of the hartwick loss to WNEC.
I am at a workshop today and not at work, this is the perfect board to keep me busy:)
dlippiel: I don’t think any of us think SJF is going to shut down Hobart — nobody thinks Hobart is scoring fewer than 28 points, right?
Interesting spread of results on the W&J/NCWC game. Will talk more but have work to do. 🙁
That time of year is upon us once again!!!! Go Raiders!
Pat I look forward to hearing some of our thoughts. I guess I was to “Literal” with my use of “shut down.” I guess I am/was a bit surprised no one is taking Bart. When I look back at SJFs only loss it was to a team that moves the ball very effectivly through the air. From seeing the Statesmen play on a few occasions this year Strom gets stronger each week with his precision passing. It will be interesting how the SJF DBs handle his arm. I know twice this season he was throwing over opponents DBs with a great amount of accurecy. We shall see.
The HCAC has yet to earn any respect … that’s what a 1-8 play-off record will get you. You picked one upset (NC vs. FC) and one by the seeds (Wabash over MSJ). The weather is going to cooperate — the Grizzlies passing attack should not be affected adversely and the FC defense has been tough against the run all year. The biggest worry for FC is the mobile NC QB – The Griz has struggled with that all year. Wabash will be able to get to the endzone against MSJ – but MSJ can move the ball against the LG through the air. Both should be fun games. I hope to be here Sunday with corrections for all 3 of you. Time to go play ball !!! GO GRIZ !
DLippiel: I guess if we didn’t think it was a close game then we’d be thinking Hobart had no chance. Shoot — Gordon thinks it goes into OT and Keith has it a one-point game, so even though none of us actually picked Hobart to win I think you can see we all think it’s possible.
I would be hesitant to challenge Stepnick. Maybe Hobart can have some success on the other side of the field, though.
grizfan: Yeah, 1-8 and the only playoff win is against a league that’s winless, so that’s a bad combination. NC/FC is going to be one of the best games of the day tomorrow. Look forward to hearing about it.
Keith—
You saw Wesley a couple of times this season and Hampden-Sydney last week. Just wondering what your thoughts were as to why you have the Wolverines as a 22-point favorite, as compared to your colleagues seven-point spreads?
I know Franklin is new to all of this and hasn’t earned any respect yet. Just go back and note how the coach’s poll continually had Mt St Joseph ahead of them even after Franklin had beaten MSJ convincingly and won the HCAC. That’s OK, but I want to tell you, these guys can play, especially on offense. Their only loss was by 2 pts to a very good Wabash team, and that because they failed on a 2 pt conversion in the rain and muck. Don’t be surprised if FC surprises!
I will be at the SJF Hobart game, rooting my team on in the wind, rain and snow that is forecast. My wife (SJF grad) refuses to attend due to the weather forecast and also due to not being inflicted with the D-3 “bug” like her lame, ex-DB husband. If I was SJF, I’d run, run and run some more. U of R tailback had 190+ yards last week against Hobart and their QB threw 5 ints. Hobart will mix it up and most likely score 30 plus. Hobart can pile up points very quickly and if they do early in the game, SJF may be in trouble trying to come back against a very stiff “bend but not break” defense. Strom has picked apart opposition defenses this year like a surgeon and has only 2 ints. I agee this one will be close. My (very bias and hopeful) pick: Hobart wins 38-31.
I have analyzed the NCC/Franklin game pretty closely. the key will be the NCC defense vs the Franklin offense. NCC’s defense is substantially better than wabash. they also run a 3.3.5 scheme that is difficult to dissect and prepare for in a week. their MLB is as good as there is in d3 and their dbs are physical. They simply haven’t given up many points against some pretty good competition. Franklin’s offense will definately be able to score but I don’t think they can keep pace with what has become a very potent NCC offense that has the CCIW player of the year at the helm and the best running back in the conference behind him.
If the franklin Defense can outperform their statistics, this will be a close game. If not, NCC controls the ball and wins by a dozen.
Very fair picks, I’d say so far. Thanks for the respect to Capital’s defense, actually. They are a great Defense, and you are probably right thinking that their Offense will just not have the production to keep up. Good picks, I’d say. Still, I’ll be at Whitewater (living in Chicago puts me closer to UWW than Cap) and rooting Capital to a hopeful upset. I’ll be trying. Cheers guys! Go Cap!
i will comment on the south region (or W&J region) because i know the most about those teams
1) W&J vs NCW: It is interesting that Pat thinks this is going to be a blowout. NCW has not been “outclassed” all year and lost by 3 at Wesley (who may be the best team in the region). Even though NCW is an eight seed, this is a step up in class for W&J. I think that they will be up to the task but it will be a close one. If NCW had more playoff experience they would have a chance to pull this out. Both defenses will have trouble getting the opposing offense off the field. In the end W&J will make a few more stops.
W&J 38 NCW 28
2) Wesley vs Hamp/Sydney- Of all of the south region games this one has the potential to be a blowout. HS has not seen any team close to Wesley and really will have to play well in the first half to keep it close. Wesley is a team that is building momentum since the montclair st loss and should overpowered an outmanned HS.
Wesley 35 HS 14
3) Salisbury vs Muhlenberg: May be the most entertaining game. Contrasting styles. It surprises may that everyone picked Salisbury. Muhlenberg blanked both new jersey and union to start the season (quite impressive). Salisbury is going to have trouble moving the ball and I dont see them putting up quite enough points.
Muhlenberg 17 Salisbury 13
4) UMHB vs Trinity
I think in the longrun the Whitewater thrashing may be good for this team. They seem a lot more focused on the task at hand. Trinity is still living a dream from the Millsaps game of the ages. If this game was earlier in the season, trinity might have a chance to sneak up on UMHB. However, most would agree the UMHB is the better team and should win the game. I dont think trinity will be able to move the ball consistently or stop UMHB’s ground attack. As long as UMHB does not come out throwing (like in the whitewater game), trinity should not be able to compete. Trinity will need several turnovers and an error free game to make it close.
UMHB 41 Trinity 20
Hartwick, Hobart, and Eau-Claire are the only visiting teams that have a legit chance……………
Good luck to all..
mille: NCWC won’t be facing a wide receiver making his first collegiate start at quarterback tomorrow, however — it will be facing the No. 1 quarterback in D-III in QB rating.
precisely…..they wont stop swallow….w&j will have trouble with townsend….the run and pass type qb will present a challenge…… w&j should get a few stops here and there……i love w&J…they are my alma mater…however if you look at the games where w&j had tougher competition (geneva and waynesburg) swallow’s numbers tend to come back down to earth………..
Which is why I said on ESPNU on Sunday that Townsend will need to hold onto the ball.
Capital35,
Will also be at the UWW/Capital game. Let us know what you think of the stadium and atmosphere at UWW. I hope you have a great game day experience and enjoy everything but the outcome of the game! Have fun tomorrow!
Statesman78: While I can appreciate your perception of Hobart’s offense, and without discounting the likelihood that the game is actually a relatively high scoring game (I can see each team in the upper twenties or thirties….like the weather forecast) the probability of ‘Bart piling it on early is slim to none against SJF’s solid and experienced D. In fact, there has been exactly 1 offense in the past 30 games or so that has been able to pile it on so to speak, and that was a Sharpe led Springfield offense in the regular season in 2006 some 16 games ago. Even so, the SJF offense kept pace anyway. Not even MUC’s offense in 2006 was able to pile it on against this defense.
It will be a close game and I, as well as my closest friends in the SJF ‘program’, fear the worst against this ‘Bart squad, and both teams can and will score on eachother…..but……I of course have to go with:
SJF 30
HOBART 24
Weather forecast for Alliance, OH is ugly. 38 degress and rain. Should hold the scoring down some.
SJF82, I see you stayed up late. Hopefully you were out with the SJF team, whooping it up into the wee hours. We need every advantage we can get. I’m getting ready to leave. Can’t wait. If we don’t manage to pull off this upset, GO FISHER!!!!
I’m just about to head out to Whitewater for the UWW-Capital matchup. I look forward to seeing what happens when the Warhawks meet up with someone from the OAC that isn’t Mt. Union. I haven’t done enough research to make a credible prediction, but I’m hoping that things turn in the Warhawks’ favor. Best of luck to all the teams out there (yes, even Capital) and let’s have a great five weeks!
It’s halftime in Alliance and the officiating is doing a great job in influencing the outcome of this ballgame.
Mount is still in the led so I’m not cry babying it’s simply that a playoff game should be clean of the favoritism that officials are showing.
Other then that it’s a great game at 21 – 12.
North Central Scores from the 20 yd line as time expires and NCC beats Franklin 44-42
Mount Union and Ithacia was a great game and I’d want to congratulate the players, coaches and the good number of fans that made the trip to Alliance. The only problem I have is with the amateur like officiating that was forced onto the fans. I feel that each and every school that make up the NCAC conference should feel or carry a part of the blame or better yet the shame for what we saw today.
I know the coaching staff and Mount Union College would never become common enough as to gripe about the officiating so it’s up to us fans.
My God man, this was a play off game and the teams and fan don’t have to be exposed to the hatred and pettiness that is apparent with some of the less then good enough teams that don’t make it as far as Mount Union does into the play offs with regularity.
The Big Ten is finished until New Years Day and I think that the OAC should make an effort to bring in officials of their class who we know can perform at the level that the play off should have.
not bad in the prediction department:
Keith 13 correct
Pat 12 correct
Mann 11 correct
Curry and Muhlenberg hurt your win/loss.
I would not even come close to your record.
Lost the Washington & Jefferson in that bracket alone.
What a heartbreaker !!! Kudos to North Central for the changes they made to defense in the second half — 35 points allowed in the first 30 minutes, 7 in the second half – mostly in the pressure brought against Rupp. And for the LAST play 19 yard TD pass to win it 44-42. Most will only see the HCAC go 0-2 on the day … GRIZ deserve better !!! NC a good team … but the CCIW rep had everything they could handle all day from Franklin. Leonard’s program on the rise … two BIG steps this year — Conference champs and play-offs for the first time ever. Colts didn’t win the Super Bowl without a few losses along the way !!! And LOTS of GRIZ back on both side sof the ball next year !! Hope to see all true D3 fans here next year !! Thanks for letting me play along !
Ah, dangit. Capital held with them until the 4th quarter, where it just split right open. Yipes.
Goodluck Warhawks, it was a classy game from both the fans and players. Capital helping UWW guys up and vice-versa. Just a good ball game…(until we lost, ha.) We’ll be back next year. Good luck everyone.
None of you pro’s picked Curry…Ooops!
Hi, Dr. Hindsight, welcome to the board. 🙂
dras,
great bashing of the NCAC and its officials. I especially liked the part when thought Mount could to afford to pay Big Ten officials. I don’t want to start a fight with you or any other Mount fan, you guys care way too much for me to worry about what someone said about me on a blog… but it would be great if you would explain why the officials were so terrible. Making statements without supporting evidence leaves your comments without merit. And it upsets me when I take the time to read the book you posted that has the merit of The Cat in the Hat!
sorry dras,
one last thing I was looking for clarification on the “of their class” comment from your most recent post… It was unclear if you are referring to the officials or Mount. Just wondering
Sorry I missed some questions directed at me last week.
First, I wouldn’t read into any unanimous picks too far if the scores are close. That’s one reason we all do them separately, no doubt if we’d looked at other picks first and seen Salisbury or North Central unanimous, someone might have gone the other way just to acknowledge the possibilities.
Conrad: I didn’t think H-SC had the speed on defense to match up with Wesley’s weapons. Few teams do, but if you play the ol’ umbrella on them, they can hurt you underneath too. If you can’t match Wesley’s speed, I think you have to be able to give them problems up front.
From what we saw vs. Salisbury, Muhlenberg might be able to do that.
Old ends, 13 was a bit of a wow. I had a feeling about Curry too, as evidenced by the OT, but I picked them a year or two ago vs. Springfield and it turned out to be not very wise.
On the flipside, I was 2 seconds from losing Case Western and less than a minute from losing North Central, TCNJ and N.C. Wesleyan (OT) and could’ve won St. Norbert in the final minutes … so really a bunch of the picks were pretty tenuous.
As I told anyone at Muhlenberg apologizing for ruining/spoiling my picks, they are just picks … I take much more joy in seeing how things really play out than in how my picks do. There’s a good chance I’m going to get some wrong and some right each week.
Looks like we have a 3/4 purple national semis. Time for Prince to start making plans for a trip to Salem to play the halftime show.