Stagg Bowl XXXIV predictions

Posted on by

We’ve predicted every Stagg Bowl since Stagg Bowl XXVII, and that year we were one of the few groups east of the Rockies to correctly predict Pacific Lutheran would beat Rowan.

We’re going to rest on those laurels … well, basically forever. We’ve been right every year except 2003, when St. John’s got it done against Mount Union against very long odds. Here’s what our assorted staff and contributors see happening Saturday in Stagg Bowl XXXIV:

Previous years’ picks: 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005

Pat Coleman, D3football.com Publisher
I missed last year with UW-Whitewater. I’m giving them one last chance to redeem me. Everyone on the Warhawk side is downplaying the “Win one for the … Bobber” factor. Can the Whitewater front line get pressure on either Mount Union quarterback? Can they and the Mount Union linebackers keep Nate Kmic in the 5-yard-per-category range? I don’t know — they have a better chance than most, but it’s hard to bet against the Purple Raiders. In the end, I am simply playing a hunch. This game, as the networks would say on election night, is too close to call. But a call is required:
Mount Union 23, UW-Whitewater 20

Matt Barnhart, publisher, Bridgewaterfootball.com
This 2006 Warhawks team will be the best all-around squad the Purple Raiders have faced since Bridgewater in 2001. The Eagles fell just three points short that year, but the Warhawks should have enough to get by the second time around. It is always tough to pick against Mount Union, but even on the big stage, they can lose. 2003 versus St. John’s and 2004, at home, against Mary Hardin-Baylor are shining examples.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 23

Ric Brienza, Mtunionfootball.com
This is supposed to be fun right? Well what could be more fun than winning a ninth national title?
Seriously, how can the eight-time and defending national champions be underdogs in Salem, VA? Once again Larry Kehres has his team thinking that way. This team is very focused and is ready to play, as is Whitewater I’m sure. It should be a very good game between two very good teams. We’ll go with the Purple Raiders in overtime.
Mount Union 34, UW-Whitewater 27 (2 OT)

Pat Cummings, D3football.com broadcaster, Around the Mid-Atlantic columnist
Mount Union has not had as glowing a postseason as we have seen from them in the past. A dramatic shift in their offense, while successful so far, has limited their output and forced me to Whitewater. Even as Justin Beaver was held in check against Wesley, the Warhawks have flowed on all sides and they shine with a spectacular assortment of receivers. They’ve all been here before, so nerves aren’t a factor. Sending Berezowitz out with a win will be all the motivation they need.
UW-Whitewater 23, Mount Union 17

Gordon Mann, D3football.com broadcaster
Going into last year’s Stagg Bowl, Mount Union had lost to ONU and didn’t dominate a wounded Rowan team in the semifinals. UWW survived the toughest region, took out the defending champ and destroyed Wesley. So I picked Whitewater with some confidence. After Mount Union proved me wrong (again), I vowed not to pick against Larry Kehres again. So I won’t.
Mount Union 28, UW-Whitewater 24

Keith McMillan, D3football.com columnist
It could go either way, but Berezowitz riding off into the sunset with a championship, in a rematch, against the greatest Division III program in history is too perfect an ending not to go with.
UW Whitewater 24, Mount Union 21

John McGraw, D3football.com broadcaster
The old saying goes, at least on D3football.com, never bet against Mount Union and Larry Kehres. But, I think 2006 is the year of the Warhawk. Whitewater’s defense has been stiffling all season long and absolutely shut down a potent Wesley offense last week. While Mount’s defense is stellar, the offense lacks a healthy Pierre Garcon. A returning Justin Beaver aids the Warhawks, as does their solid passing attack and outstanding wide receiver Derek Stanley.
UW-Whitewater 17, Mount Union 14

Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
The difference between last year and this year is UWW’s championship game experience gained in 2005’s 35-28 loss to the Purple Raiders. As Ryan Kleppe told me this week, “there were times during last year’s game that we played like deer caught in headlights.”

For Whitewater the key will be to not let Nate Kmic to have a game like last year. He may gain 100 yards but he can’t rip off big chunks of yardage. While the Warhawks set of linebackers have been called the most talented in Division III, the proof must be on the field on Saturday.

Saturday’s good weather will help Justin Beaver play with mostly repaired collarbone. It was very difficult for him to take hits in the bone chilling cold and frozen turf vs. St. Johns and Wesley leading up to Saturday’s game.
UW-Whitewater 31, Mount Union 24

38 thoughts on “Stagg Bowl XXXIV predictions”

  1. Already posted on the OAC board this week. No real reason, just a gut feeling…
    MTU: 31
    UWW: 24

    Interesting that both Gordon and Kieth have seen both teams live in the playoffs and they are split in their predictions. Should be a GREAT Game. Maybe the Best Stagg Bowl Ever!!

  2. 5 Picks for UWW, 3 for UWW…

    I’m going to call it 28-17 Whitewater. I just think Whitewater’s defense will by hungry… and Whitewater will jump out in front 14-3 at the half… MUC will close to 14-10, before UWW scores twice in the third quarter to put the game away. MUC scores late to make the final 28-17.

  3. Ok, well, seeing as my prediction to Pat wasn’t published — I must admit it was not requested but I wanted to make it anyway — I will do so here.

    I believe it will be Mount Union 21, UW-Whitewater 20.

    U-Dub-Dub, I’m sorry. But I will explain the reasons here.

    I have seen Whitewater play three times this year and Mount Union once. Whitewater has an extremely strong Offensive line and Defensive line but, in the same regard, are par with what I saw in Mount Union.
    Coaching experience goes a long, long way in the postseason. With Garcon’s hand injury (if you look at the luncheon photos you will see a cast on his left hand) and Beaver’s broken collar bone in week 6 the field is still even. However, the staff at Mount Union has been here before. Many, many times. Experience takes precedence for me. But, if I am wrong, it won’t be by much. I would say that this game could be within three points either way.

    That’s my two bits.

  4. We’re all so dead set on a close game, it would be a shame if someone made a costly mistake or two early and blew it open.

    My original pick was 31-28, but then I remembered no one has hardly scored half that against the MUC D … so going down to 24-21 UWW would represent a high total vs. the Purple Raiders D this year. But UWW is pretty multi-faceted, so they should score some. If it’s early, we have a game.

    If they have to come back against the MUC D, they could be in trouble.

    Anyway, I could see it going so many different directions … Right now, I’m going one direction: to bed.

    See yous all closer to gametime.

  5. Mt. Union 24 UW-W 13

    Mt. Union won’t get burned by the pass and I don’t think Beaver is still 100%

  6. I will be crowned the god of football knowledge later tonight. UWW 43- MU 9 3tds for Stanley and 3 field goals fo MU.

  8. Hey Flush…you want to stick with just one prediction…considering a completely different one on another Dose message.

  10. Here we are again, as predicted when the last Stagg Bowl ended. I can certainly see this one shaping up much the same as last years game – two great teams with talented running backs and strong defenses. However, as someone in a thread I read noted, MUC’s defense has been very stingy this year and that will be the key difference in the Stagg Bowl.

    MUC – 21
    UWW – 14

  11. Hey Flush,

    You got one number right in that prediction. 9 which will not be MU’s score but the number of D-3 championships they will have. Unlike Flush, I have much respect for UWW. Although I haven’t seen them play this year, they are a darn good team to get back to the Stagg Bowl two years in a row. However, I feel MU’s D will make it difficult on UWW, and LK will work his magic to get the “W.” MUC 24 – UWW 10.

  12. pa wesleyfan: I don’t think Beaver is 100% either, which is a shame. I would have liked to see these two great backs go after each other at 100%.

  13. i cant believe your guys picks….people are saying 24-21 or 43-9 or 24-17….i don’t know but both defenses are exceptionally well…i think whitewater will pull it off 13-10

  14. i was saying that your guys picks are to high scoring…it wont be that high scoring if u look at both defenses

  15. Flush the “stuff that’s running out of my mouth” Johnnies said “I will be crowned the god of football knowledge later tonight”. By who……the person in the mirror? Nobody cares Flush. If you were a God (capitalize the “G” and show some respect for our creator!!), you’d have a website, a big spread in Vegas and your own radio/cable tv show simulcasted throughout the country (think Brandon Lang!!). Somehow I think not!!

    Good luck to both teams and hit the books even harder starting tomorrow. There’s a world out there to conquer which won’t include the NFL for most of you so enjoy today, but work even harder for what will frame the next 50-60-70 years of your life!!

  16. Hi Salem Gang! I hope everyone is having a great time down in Raider Land. Pat – I will be at the ESPN Zone in downtown Chicago for the game, and I believe they have wireless so I will tune in your guys vs. the ESPN announcers.

    Mount comes out in the hurry-up, and throws, throws, throws. Then after they get the lead, it’s all Kmic, all the time.

    Mount – 28
    Whitewater – 17

  17. Not as high scoring as I first originally anticipated. Beav may not be 100% but he’s still better than most backs at 80%. If UW-W forces three turnovers or more they should win. There defense is a bend but not break type, so if Mount breaks it, it’ll be a long day. Either way, good game all around.

    Flush, I hope you are listening to all the people saying that your prediction means nothing. Even if the score is exactly 43-9, nobody will think you’re a genius.

    16-10 Whitewater

  18. Took a week to get over the lose to UWW. I was at the game last week and UWW is a very good team, defense is very fast. MU also has a good defense so i think the game will be low scoring. Both teams look to run and unles someone breaks a long one that will keep the clock moving. By all accounts, it seems like UWW has a more balanced attack and that may prove to be the difference. UWW 21 MU 17. As far as flush goes, his name tell you what to do with his comments.

  19. Wonder if D3football will make me part of the “team”, when my prediction hits. Yes Pat I have had multiple predictions but they are all same results in general. UWW 53 MU -10

  20. It’s a heckuva day for Dec. football here in Salem-Roanoke. Just checked into the hotel not long after the Raiders checked out. Clerk was talking about how quiet here was last night . . .

  21. I’m just glad you guys don’t do that retarded I’m-calling-the-game-and-don’t-want-to-pick-a-winner stuff.

  23. Matt Barnhart, your bias to Bridgewater is obviously affecting your judgement, as seen in your statement:

    “This 2006 Warhawks team will be the best all-around squad the Purple Raiders have faced since Bridgewater in 2001.”

    The 2001 Bridgewater team was outstanding, no question. But the 2003 St. Johns team dominated an undefeated Mt. Union in the Stagg Bowl, especially in the 2nd half, winning by 18. UMHB’s team in ’04 defeated the Purple Raiders on their home field, and there were accounts from some MUC fans admitting that UMHB was definately the better team, likely by more than the final score indicated. An arguement might even be made for the ’05 Warhawk team, which despite a number of key mistakes and turnovers, lost by only a single TD to the mighty Purple Raiders.

  27. whoa….hold on D3forme. WW lost by seven. But let’s not forget that they were down 28-7, and 35-21 with not much time left. MUC allowed jacobs to complete a bunch of passes in front of the defense to kill clock. They beat WW by more than the final score indicated. Now everyone was saying that this year’s team was better than 2005, and MUC beat them by 19. I was at the the 2001 Bridgewater game, and that Eagle team was damn good. Their team speed was probably the best I’ve ever seen at the D-III level. “Key Mistakes” are what seperate good teams from great teams. WW did have some key mistakes last year, and that’s why they lost. MUC has lost three playoff games in the past 11 years. Rowan in OT, UMHB on a last play hail mary, and the throttling they took from SJU in 2003. SJU was the best of all the teams that MUC has faced since 1996. They were prepared, they didn’t make mistakes and they had a difference maker in Elliot. They won because they were the best team that day. Just like every other championship is won.

  29. Cole,
    I appreciate this:

    “I’m just glad you guys don’t do that I’m-calling-the-game-and-don’t-want-to-pick-a-winner stuff.”

    You end up eating a little crow if you’re wrong, but we all have fun kicking around the scores and ideas pre-game.

  31. mainjack, reread my post and you would see that the point of it was that the statement “This 2006 Warhawks team will be the best all-around squad the Purple Raiders have faced since Bridgewater in 2001” is not an accurate statement due to the fact that there have been at least two teams MUC has faced since ’01 that have been better than the ’01 Bridgewater squad (’03 SJU and ’04 UMHB). You state yourself that “SJU was the best of all the teams that MUC has faced since 1996”, which supports my point.

  33. radelphatjohnnie2, you hit the jackpot with your prediction. Nice job! Amazing how most predictions weren’t even close. I guess that’s why they play the game, huh?

  34. radel, I just noticed the time of your post! Not a prediction. You were posting the score AFTER the game. My bad.

  35. Official D# prognosticaters (sp?).

    Haven’t you guys learned anything? If you pick against Mount Union in the Stagg Bowl you will be wrong 90% of the time. 😎

    Thanks for all you do on the site. You guys do a tremendous job.

  36. Congrats to the Purple Raiders. Great game Sat. even though it did get away from the Warhawks after the 3rd Q blocked punt. Hold your head high UWW players/fans/coaches….hold your head high!!

  37. Just catching up on some posts- and this is downright ridiculous:

    “This 2006 Warhawks team will be the best all-around squad the Purple Raiders have faced since Bridgewater in 2001”

    but what can we expect from the publisher of bridgewaterfootball.com ?? what a homer…

  38. “# cole0150 Says:
    The 16th of December, 2006 at 2:49 pm

    I’m just glad you guys don’t do that retarded I’m-calling-the-game-and-don’t-want-to-pick-a-winner stuff.”

    Ryan just realized that this is the non-D3football.com brother in the Coleman family chiming in. Glad he could pull himself away from deadspin … and law school … to say hello.

Leave a Reply