Looking ahead to Week 14: Quarterfinal Week

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It’s that time again — probably way past it. When we have 264 comments and counting on last week’s Game Day Updates blog post, it’s time to start looking ahead.

The 32-team field has been drawn (Nov. 12) and quartered (through last weekend). Here we have eight teams remaining and four quarterfinal matchups — perhaps the best foursome in recent memory, if I didn’t make that completely clear in Around the Nation. I think we could see four single-digit margins of victory. And even though Pat Coleman and I provide this week’s expected final scores, and they don’t all fall in the single-digit range, we both know we’re looking at eight teams matched against opponents they can beat, should they put it all together Saturday.

It’s our third consecutive week of predicting playoff scores, and we do so not so much to flaunt our knowledge or embarass ourselves, but just to provide an idea of what’s expected to happen, so you’ll know you’re seeing history in the making should the results go off course. Pat has taken the wrong winner in just three of the 24 games so far, while I rebounded after a rough opening week to go 7-1 last week. Pat and I both missed one of the East bracket games and correctly hit the winners in the others.

Why is that relevant? Because our scores — done separately, without consulting each other — are again very similar. That may not speak much to what will happen, but it does paint a clear picture of what’s expected.

Wesley (South) Bracket quarterfinal in Dover, Del.:
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Wesley 23
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 29, Wesley 28

Mount Union (North) Bracket quarterfinal in Alliance, Ohio:
Pat: Mount Union 42, Capital 21
Keith: Mount Union 35, Capital 23

Wilkes (East) Bracket quarterfinal in Pittsford, N.Y:
Pat: Rowan 20, St. John Fisher 17
Keith: Rowan 23, St. John Fisher 21

UW-Whitewater (West) Bracket quarterfinal in Whitewater, Wis.:
Pat: UW-Whitewater 31, St. John’s 20
Keith: UW-Whitewater 28, St. John’s 17

If Pat and I are wrong, and all four games are decided by a touchdown our less, that would be a first in the eight years of expanded playoffs. I looked back at the seven previous 28- and 32-team brackets, and found that all but three quarterfinal games were decided by seven points or fewer (12 games) or 25 points or more (13 games). No season has featured two margins like Pat and I are predicting in Alliance and Whitewater, but three (’02, ’03 and ’05) have featured three games decided by a TD or less.

It makes sense, as the early rounds have always seemed to separate the “playoff teams” from the “Stagg Bowl contenders.”

The road to Salem continues Saturday.

Feel free to comment on our picks or make your own below.

98 thoughts on “Looking ahead to Week 14: Quarterfinal Week”

  1. Breaking news out of Goldthwait, Texas —

    D3football.com has canceled their Game of the Week broadcast of the West regional final between University of Wisconsin-Whitewater and St. John’s University due to weather and travel cancellations. You can tune in the game through allinbroadcasting.com.

    Thanks!

  2. Whoa,
    6 new comments. Most I’ve ever had to moderate at once.

    Anyway,
    Purplephyco, I always thought Borchert in ’97 maybe, had 54 TDs and 1 INT in the regular season and after the Stagg Bowl had 67 and 2.

    But last year at the end of the season, I did the research to debunk some D3 records myths. We found that Justin’s Beaver’s 2,400 yards last year was four yards short of Ricky Gales of Simpson in 1989, and Gales did in in 11 games as opposed to 15.

    I did not find any evidence that I was correct about Borchert, however, meaning Elliott really does hold the record with 61 and/or I missed it.

    P-Cummings,
    You’d better be there. Archer says he has two hot dogs and two sodas at halftime for you. 🙂

    (has never done play-by-play … How hard could it be? … Doesn’t want to find out)

  3. You go, Dick.

    That’s really top shelf that UWW is putting it out for everyone. But I’ll still be making the drive and seeing the game in person. Nothing like being there…..

  4. So, uh, who wants to tell Pat that broke at 2:17 p.m.?

    (knows Pat will not take kindly to this message)

  5. AJWassup:

    Pat is on the “Tour de Tejas” trip for D3hoops.com and Keith will be at Wesley/UMHB with Pat Cummings.

    So you get stuck with the C-team — I’ll be there for the game.

    It’ll be just like that movie the Replacements. I’ll even do the game under the Keanu Reaves personna.

  6. Keith stats don’t tell everything but…the good qb’s find a way to not make mistakes….most interceptions are the QB’s fault…so if you take the inexperiance for granted and knock of his interceptions by half and add 5 more touchdowns his numbers still read 15 touchdowns 6 interceptions not a bad year but not a great year

  7. Keith
    I don’t know if Wesley would have won or not last year at UW-W but the score may have been 56-48. Would have been interesting to see on a dry field. And the way the weather is churning up if both teams win again it may be another nasty day in Whitewater next weekend.

    I think you guys in the booth will be a little more toasty than us outside tomorrow. I don’t think there is much chance for snow other than a few flurries at best. Stop and say hello I sit next to the door to the press box. usually second row isle seat..

  8. and Keith my band teacher in high school would always tell us your only as good as your last performance…so last year is well last year

  10. 20 MPH winds predicted in Alliance tomorrow. If that holds true, MUC wins big, as the fans will witness the Nate Kmic show.

  13. I love how all of you are counting out the Johnnies…just like in 2003 when they played Mount Union and we all remember what happened there, or how about in 200 again against Mount Union, no the J’s didn’t win that one, but they sure made it interesting…hey SeanGOP…what team do you root for again? Augustana? Is that what I saw a while ago? I forgot are they one of the “8” still alive? Lets remember that last year the Johnnies turned it over 8 times one a fumble that was returned for a score…tomorrow’s game will be interesting, will the Johnnies win, not sure…will it be a better game than last year, yea I think so…

  14. Any Cap fans out there? Fans from the other seven teams have weighed in on their team’s chances…..

  15. Only at Goldthwaite by 4:07 pm…

    He had better hurry if he is going to make Georgetown by 6pm!!!

    Maybe the NCAA gave him the wrong mapping software!?!

  17. Here’s another few points to ponder… Winds tomorrow are expected 10 to 20 mph. Both teams have real good kickers but this may sway to a bit of an advantage to Wesley because the wind usually blows across the field and not from end zone to end zone. One other point. Wesley has intimidated punters into bad kicks all season long. In a defensive game that could be a big advantage.

  19. I find everyone’s comments rather amusing when it comes to the UW-Whitewater/St. John’s game tommorrow afternoon. Yes, I know UW-Whitewater is rather solid all the way around, however please take into account what happened last year when these teams met. Johnnies – 8-9 turnovers; UW-Whitewater – 1-2. It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that if a team turns the ball over that many times against a good team, they will get beat and more than likely BIG. For most of the year, SJU was ranked #3 in the nation, right behind UW-Whitewater. Yes, they did slip up against Bethel to close the season, but have proven why they are one of the top D3 teams in the nation by winning 2 hard games on the road. Why can’t they make it 3 in a row? I will be attending the game tommorrow in Whitewater and let me tell you, UWW is in for a rude awakening. I have not seen one person give the Johnnies a chance, it makes me laugh. I will tell you this: SJU will NOT turn the ball over 8 times this game and the final outcome will be much different than last year. Final Score: St. John’s 28 UW-Whitewater 17. GO JOHNNIES!!

  20. Well…it is now 9pm…and I’m still not in Philadelphia.

    Got on the plane in Portland to go to Philadelphia and then they said we had to get off…so I did. That was 1:50pm.

    Air traffic control said we wouldn’t leave until at least 4:45pm. Knowing Philadelphia ATC…always playing third fiddle to the NYC and Washington/Baltimore air traffic, I figured I would take a shot.

    I got onto a flight from Portland to Washington Reagan at 3pm with a connection to PHL at 5:40pm, getting me into Philly at 7pm.

    I arrive into DC on time and the PHL flight looks golden. I’m patting myself on the back with this one.

    5:40 comes and goes and they say Philly Air Traffic Control has backed us up to 9pm departure. Now – I saw some of the flight crew hear this and their reactions weren’t the best. Flight crews are limited in their allowable hours of working and I had a feeling that if we really couldn’t leave til 9pm, the crew would time out.

    So…I took a chance and left the airport, grabbed the Metro to Union Station and am currently on a train back to Philly to arrive at 30th St. Station at 10:30pm. Interestingly enough, I saw a flight attendant who had been at Reagan waiting for the Philly flight…she confirmed my suspicicion that she thought the flight crew was going to time out…so she decided to take the train too…

    The right decision would have been to stay in Portland and wait for the Philly flight cause I’d have been home by now…but hindsight is always perfect.

    I’ll make the game tomorrow as long as no trees fall on the tracks or we have some sort of incident on the Amtrak Regional…

    See you in Dover bright and early tomorrow AM!!!

  22. Yeah I do…but I travel around the country most of the year for work. I leave Sunday for…drum roll please…Iron Mountain, Michigan.

    No drum roll?

    Eh.

  23. Keith,

    I called from the road and asked Ryan to post it. He posted it. I didn’t ask him to check to see if Gordon had already posted it and he didn’t think to check either.

    Give me a break — next time I will call YOU and ask you to post it. 🙂

  24. I find the comments rather amusing as well about St. John’s/UW-Whitewater. People are assuming that turnovers occur in a vacuum, that all of the Johnnies’ turnovers were simply bad luck. Well, that’s not true. You can’t assume they will turn the ball over zero times either.

    In the game I saw, St. John’s was down 21-7 at the half after turning the ball over just twice. It’s not like all of those eight turnovers were turned into points. Four fumbles and an interception came looooong after the game was decided.

  26. Pat, thanks for the comment. While I agree with you that we cannot expect zero turnovers this time around, eight is out of the question. It is not like UW-Whitewater “blew” us out of the water last year. Again, yes they capitalized on our miscues, but at the same time we had chances to make something happen and didn’t. Trust me, I KNOW UW-Whitewater is a fantastic team, but everyone is already crowning them “West Region Champs”. All I am saying is I would not bank on a home-game next weekend in Whitewater if I were you. Johnnies will win this game and prove all the naysayers wrong. Johnnies ROLL Saturday!

  27. Although I’m certainly not as optimistic about the St. John’s chances as you are, I think that to say the Johnnies will roll tomorrow is a bit much. Yes, last year UWW FORCED 9 turnovers by St. John’s, which is very unlikely to happen again; however, I’m a very strong believer in the fact that our defense is even better than it was last year, and our offense is still one of the best in the country. I do think that St. John’s will fare much better, but it won’t be enough. UWW is coming off a close game against UW-L in which they made many more mistakes than usual. I look for them to be focused and ready to take care of business.

  28. wow johnnie!
    u obviously have no idea how “fantastic” of a team whitewater really is. scoring 17 points at home in beaver’s conditions????? is that for real??? didnt whitewater score 58 in similar conditions last year against a good wesley team??? i think u sir might be the one in store for a rude awakening.

  30. And UWW did not force *all* nine of the SJU turnovers, just for the record. I remember one fumble that Alex Kofoed just plain dropped.

  32. True Pat. I was just trying to make a point that the majority of them were not just “miscues” by St John’s. Looking forward to a great game in about 10 hours…now it’s time to rest up for it.

  33. I was just nearing the end of a lenghty unbiased post about the SJF-Rowan match-up when I lost my connection and my post. And I dont really have the patience to re-type it again…but here goes:

    Anyone looking at the stats alone (if you havent seen both teams play at least twice each AND at least one game agaist a quality opponent) says SJF all day by 20 and twice on Sunday. If you have seen both play, and I highly doubt anyone has (I havent either) then you can weigh in with an educated opinion as to how the Rowan defense may be able to hold the SJF offense under 27 pts (their lowest output of season) to compensate for their offense that has only scored over 20 twice (2) all year!

    I, on the other hand, am not going to be feeling overly confident headin out to the game in about 4 hrs knowing that SJF offense has been unstoppable and that Rowan’s offense doesnt score, because that CRAP (stats) means ZERO right about now. Rowan is Rowan until SJF becomes SJF today. Ya ever hear of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East….if you havent, they ran off 14 straight Division Titles recently because they knew what it was like to execute when the stats werent in their favor.

    SJF must execute for 60 minutes today the way they have all year or their numbers will be nothing but excuses that us SJF fans will use for the next twelve months as we blame a loss to Rowan on weather, turnovers (SEE JOHNNIES POSTS ABOVE) or some other happening today that is part of the same game that the other team is playin in.

    Please dont read this post as an early obit for SJF. I am just being unbiased for 5 min., and trying to stress that the only thing that counts this season is today for only 60 short minutes where one mistake makes the difference between going home this week OR GOING HOME FROM ALLIANCE NEXT WEEK!!!

    With that said, since I havent seen Rowan play this year, I can look at the numbers and easily justify my pick at SJF Offense 27
    Rowan Offense 18

    Its been a long road SJF faithful, lets bring it today!!!!!

  34. oops, looks like I messed up on my numbers a bit…Rowan only scoring 20 twice…I meant that the two times they gave up 20, they lost…Kinda my point though that stats dont matter in a game like this

  35. UWWFootball & UWWRunner, hey you took what I was saying and blew it out of proportion. Yes, the Johnnies DID have Nine turnovers last year, what’s in the past is in the past. I was merely saying, the team you saw last year was much better than they played. Case in point, this year everyone is crowning UW-Whitewater the West Region Champ, I just found that amusing; that is all. They have not even lined up to play yet and everyone is assuming they will move on. The Johnnies may not ROLL like I stated earlier, that is just my bias coming out, but I have a good feeling this will turn out positive today. I wish you and your Warhawk faithful the best of luck this afternoon and may the best team win.

  37. Fair enough Johnnie. I agree that last year we did not see the real St. John’s team. At the time, UWW was just rolling and if anybody had an off day, it turned into a blowout. Good luck to the Johnnies. I’m looking forward to a great game today.

  38. theoriginalupstate Says:

    The 30th of November, 2006 at 7:55 pm

    SJF 31 Rowan 20
    —————————————–

    Well at least I got the Fisher point total right…..

  39. D3Keith and Pat:
    So nice to see you both wrong again. Last year Wesley beat UMHB by 10 and this year by 14. Maybe someday you will pick Wesley! I looked thru the blog and everyone seemed to pick UMHB over Wesley. I wonder why? Check the stats.! I think we did about 400 to their 250. A very long trip back to Texas! Let’s hope UWW is not be allowed to frezze the field again! I think you both picked Rowan over SJF-HA!

  40. D3Keith:
    Your “gut feeling” that UMHB would win must have been an empty feeling at the end of the 34-20 win of Wesley over UMHB. Maybe one of these days you might pick Wesley over UMHB, but I doubt it!

  41. I am not a person who likes to be a bad sport, but Ii would only like to say one thing: I told you so.

    Red-Zone Scores-Chances……. Rowan: 0-1 Fisher 4-4
    FIRST DOWNS………………. Rowan 9 Fisher 18

    dominated offense and defense.

  42. Archer,
    I make the picks to give the people an expectation of what might happen; I don’t get any particular gratification from how often I’m right or wrong. Talk all the smack you want if it makes you feel better.

    You make picks, you’re gonna be wrong some of the time. If there weren’t some games that could go either way at this point in the playoffs, something is way wrong.

    Now I was way wrong today … on St. John Fisher. But I don’t think anyone saw 31-0 coming. We all knew Rowan didn’t really have the offense, but you begin to buy into teams that just find ways to win. Looks like the Cardinals didn’t allow it to remain close and let the Profs bust out any late-game magic and/or gifts. Couldn’t help but think Linfield ’04 when I saw that final. Tough way to end, but maybe an indication they were playing above their heads the whole time.

    Wesley earned their respect today. Nothing fluky about it. UMHB made it a game in the second half, and that’s what worried me about them, if they ever get that running game rolling, sometimes they win going away. I think it was Warrick who said in the postgame that this year was a more fulfilling offensive performance, because if you take away those big passes from last year, there wasn’t much offense. Today Wesley dictated the tempo by not being foolish and thinking they could run against UMHB. So Chip Knapp and Warrick took what they knew they could do, and made it work to their advantage.

    More on that perhaps, in ATN.

    So I got to meet a bunch of board regulars at the tailgate today. Archer, I take it that wasn’t you who yelled to me “Hey Keith, don’t pick us again next week” from the Wesley end. You did make a comment about halftime in the box, so I may have even met you, but you didn’t identify yourself.

    In any case, I told the guy who yelled at me (good-naturedly, I thought) in the tailgate area (I was cutting across en route to Wesley’s postgame presser) that it’s a good thing this isn’t I-A, because we’d have had 1 vs. 2 set up a long time ago, and Wesley and SJF wouldn’t even have their shots. And clearly after their performances today, they deserve a chance at getting to the championship.

    The one thing that should be a hot topic for Wesley this week is how representative that 58-6 was last year at UW-W … that was a shocker to me, I’m sure, if you go back and look at my picks this time last year.

    I think the talk will be very similar to this week from St. John’s, that that 34-7 score last year wasn’t representative of how the two teams matchup. That proved true in a 17-14 game today.

    I think that line of thinking will work for Wesley fans this week. It’s not going to be easy to go into Perkins and win on grass, but another 58-6 has to be very unlikely.

  43. A little disturbing, if not flattering, that a couple of you seem to be enjoying Pat and I being wrong more than you’re enjoying your team winning today. 🙂

    The day what I say is more interesting than what happens on the field is my last day doing this.

  44. Superman57,
    “You’re only as good as your last performance” holds up just as well in football as it must have in band. Good stuff.

    That will sound sweet this week, for SJF and Wesley, I’m sure. And throwing out last year is realy the only thing Wesley can do. I give a lot of credit to Drass, when I asked him that question, he said they threw out last year this week too (i.e. not to get too overconfident about UMHB, not to read too much into the UWW loss).

    Another few thoughts on Wesley … I love Drass, and I love their guys. Articulate on their thoughts about the game, guys mentioning God in the postgame. Just good stuff all around. I’m personally drawn to players from the Delaware Valley, and I like to see teams with some kind of mix, whether its racial, as in Wesley’s case, or just from different areas/backgrounds … in a way, that’s what college is all about, realizing that even people who look and talk like you had different home lives growing up and different outlooks on the world, and anytime you see all that blend together with a grand accomplishment in mind, and see it achieved, is a really cool thing to see.

    I know it’s hard to believe, but the D3football.com staff tends to feel a little bit for all the teams. Rarely do we get anything but good reactions on the road, from fans and school officials, and it is nice to be appreciated, but it’s nicer to know you put all that time into a service that is being well-utilized.

    Where I’m going with that, though, is that I really enjoy seeing the teams who won achieve, and I feel a little bit for the guys whose seasons ended today.

    Kinda stinks to be a Capital senior … two 3-point quarterfinal losses to MUC. I mean, the flipside is not having been there at all and test yourselves, but it must also be no fun to know you were good enough to win twice, and you played well but not well enough.

    St. John’s too, you can hold your heads high knowing you went into Whitewater just like La Crosse did last week and gave yourselves a chance.

    But losing those 17-14 games, as opposed to 31-0, means — at least it did for me as a player — that you go back over the game in your mind and agonize over the plays that you missed, even if you made a bunch of big ones.

  45. D3Keith:
    Wasn’t me at the tailgate party, maybe the PAWesley fan or at half-time. I am not allowed to go tailgating. I would have come up and introduced myself.

    Believe me, I was just busting you in the blog. I have been to all the Wesley games this year and almost all of their practices. Knapp and Drass are two great guys and coaches! I see them in action and marvel at what they do. I am with you 100% on the diversity thing. What a chance for everyone to grow and become productive adults. I, like many Wesley fans, was hoping for a St. John win so we could play at home, but I will be in Wisconsin supporting the Wolverines and hoping for a trip to the Stagg Bowl.

    You and Pat and the others do a GREAT job! I am a BIG D3 web page fan. You do a super job of ginning up energy with the blog. If you are at Whitewater the drinks are on me.

    GO WOLVERINES

  46. PAWesleyfan introduced himself.

    It’s cool … there are a lot of people who read and don’t post and/or recognize the D3 staff from our pictures.

    I’ve been doing this long enough to know not to get caught off-guard by anything anyone says to you, in person … I always have something good-natured to say back, and it comes through a lot better in person than on the boards. 🙂

  47. Archer

    Twasn’t me!!!! I stood next to Keith and Cummings and had to look up to talk to both!!!!!
    I gave them both an honest opinion on what I thought are the differences between last years and this years teams and what I thought they might look for from some of Wesleys unsung players.
    I have been going to Wesley games 11 years and enjoy every trip regaurdless. I post more to inform and defend what I think about Wesley’s teams. And yes I get testy when someone interjects uninformed statements about the Wolverines. But I have been known to chum the waters so to speak.
    And it is great when the team proves week after week that they belong where they are.

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