This is it, this is where the playoffs happen.
Last year, on a drive up to Thiel for the Johns Hopkins/Thiel game, Keith McMillan and I wrote down predicted scores for each of the first-round games, compared them and posted them on the blog.
Well, actually, I wrote my scores down. When I was done, I asked Keith for his scores. He was driving, after all.
Long trip.
But anyway, it turned into something we carried through the rest of the playoffs. Interesting to see the varying takes on the game.
Here we are. I invited Keith to e-mail his before he looks at these. We made our picks as independently of each other as possible.
North
Pat: Mount Union 52, Hope 7; Wheaton 42, Mt. St. Joseph 6; North Central 24, Concordia (Wis.) 21, Capital 50, Wittenberg 14
Keith: Mount Union 49, Hope 7; Wheaton 34, Mt. St. Joseph 21; Concordia (Wis.) 24, North Central 21 (OT); Capital 55, Wittenberg 14
Toss-ups: North Central/Concordia (Wis.)
East
Pat: Wilkes 31, Washington & Lee 3; Rowan 34, Hobart 10; St. John Fisher 31, Union 20; Springfield 48, Curry 24
Keith: Wilkes 20, Washington & Lee 0; Rowan 17, Hobart 13; St. John Fisher 42, Union 38; Curry 31, Springfield 28 (OT)
Toss-ups: Curry/Springfield
South
Pat: Wesley 48, Dickinson 12; Millsaps 35, Carnegie Mellon 34; Christopher Newport 28, Washington and Jefferson 27; Mary Hardin-Baylor 31, Hardin-Simmons 28
Keith: Wesley 42, Dickinson 21; Millsaps 35, Carnegie Mellon 28; Christopher Newport 28, Washington and Jefferson 17; Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Hardin-Simmons 21 (OT)
Toss-ups: None, other than the margin in Delaware.
West
Pat: UW-Whitewater 62, St. Norbert 3; UW-La Crosse 24, Bethel 21; Whitworth 21, Occidental 19; St. John’s 20, Central 19 (OT)
Keith: UW-Whitewater 52, St. Norbert 14; UW-LaCrosse 35, Bethel 28; Whitworth 23,
Occidental 17; Central 23, St. John’s 21
Toss-ups: Central/St. John’s
I’ll be at Springfield, the guy taking pictures in the D3football.com hat. Keith will be calling color on one of our D3football.com broadcasts for NCAASports.com at Carnegie Mellon.
Keith – Curry to beat Springfield on turf? Not so fast my friend!!!
You guys really give good credit to Bethel with the close score. To be honest, I really don’t know much about them, but I’ll take your word for it.
Keith, I hope you are wrong about Springfield – I have them going to the final 4. If they lose, then way to go Curry!
ALL I KNOW IS I CAN’T WAIT!!
East Bracket:
Wilkes 30, Washington & Lee 13: Close game at half but Wilkes puts them away in the 4th.
Rowan 28, Hobart 14: Rowan’s Defense accounts for 3 of the 4 TDs they score.
St. John Fisher 38, Union 28: Robinson 3tds to Arcidiacando 2 TDs (yardage will be even)
Springfield 41, Curry 30: SC will be up big early but Curry will keep the scoreboard close late.
The east bracket look pretty close but i would say Wilks 38 Washington and Lee 0 not even close at the opening kickoff.
Keith likes overtime doesn’t he?
West picks:
Ditka-54
Entire West Bracket- 3
I guess being from Alliance you wouldn’t know much about it.
Overtime is this extra period that two teams play when the game is tied at the end of regulation. Happens a lot in playoff games not played in Northeastern Ohio.
Plus, it softens the blow of picking against a team.
I don’t know about some of them. Curry I think is just majorly slept on, plus I tried to keep my scores in line with what I said in Around the Nation. Springfield might very well open a can on them, but usually there’s an upset or two in the first round. Most playoff games you can see going either way, so picking a score can be a tough thing to do if you’re then going to be held to that prediction later on.
I figure we’re just tossing something out there so that when there are surprising scores, we’ll have some documented expectations to compare them to. I don’t think I’ll hit on all 16, but I wouldn’t be surprised if I was pretty close on as many as 12.
Pat and I … our North brackets are eerily similar.
sorry to say, but CMU is going to win against Millsaps 31-14….just watch
With 267 comments under bracket reaactions (that has to be a Dose record), it is definitely time to start looking ahead.
Last year’s comments are from Nov. 19: http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?p=152#comments
hey i c u said ur gonna b at the springfield game and i was j/w if you could bring me one of those d3football hatts lol but yea im surprised curry was picked over springfield jus have 2 c what happens on saturdayy
Oh I don’t know. I think I know overtime. Experienced it twice in ’99, not a great feeling, really. But I would have welcomed it last season vs. Ohio Northern.
pat and keith,
you guys are mistaken by not giving the pittsburgh area teams so love…. carnegie mellon and W& J will both win there first round games and prove you wrong
No faith in Hardin-Simmons avenging their only loss? It will be an interesting game, though I, along with so many others who have blogged, wish it were happening later in the playoffs.
It’s game day….
Keith, I hope you’re wrong.
Go Pride!
In the end I think Keith will be wrong, However it certainly would be an interesting story if he wasn’t!.
Some interesting storylines for the day include: How lopsided will the 1 vs. 8 games be? How will the mismatched South Shape up? Is Carnegie Mellon Actually good enough to win in the playoffs?
Good luck to all teams!
East “toss up” Springfield/Curry? Are you sh****g me? The most balance game in this bracket is Union/SJF. That’s a “toss up”, being played on a fast track with skill on both sides. Don’t be surprised when the visitor delivers!
DICKINSON SHOCKS THE D3 WORLD!!!
Dickinson 17
Wesley 16
Two Wolverines lose their chanmpionship aspirations today!
I am with you dutchman89, Lets go DUTCHMEN! dutchmen89 are you going out to SJF today?
Viking,
I say this with respect, thanks for the laugh!
Ah,
I was just trying to get out in front of the one or two first-round upsets. Curry against Del Val last year must’ve been more flukey than anything.
On to the Springfield-SJF rematch!
Well,
let me take my medicine here:
North
Pat: Mount Union 52, Hope 7
Keith: Mount Union 49, Hope 7
Actual: Mount Union 49, Hope 0
Pat: Wheaton 42, Mt. St. Joseph 6
Keith: Wheaton 34, Mt. St. Joseph 21
Actual: Wheaton 42, MSJ 28
Pat: North Central 24, Concordia (Wis.) 21,
Keith: Concordia (Wis.) 24, North Central 21 (OT)
Actual: North Central 35, Concordia 6
Pat: Capital 50, Wittenberg 14
Keith: Capital 55, Wittenberg 14
Actual: Capital 32, Wittenberg 14
East
Pat: Wilkes 31, Washington & Lee 3
Keith: Wilkes 20, Washington & Lee 0
Actual: Wilkes 42, Washington & Lee 0
Pat: Rowan 34, Hobart 10
Keith: Rowan 17, Hobart 13
Actual: Rowan 20, Hobart 18
Pat: St. John Fisher 31, Union 20
Keith: St. John Fisher 42, Union 38
Actual: St. John Fisher 49, Union 21
Pat: Springfield 48, Curry 24
Keith: Curry 31, Springfield 28 (OT)
Actual: Springfield 42, Curry 14
South
Pat: Wesley 48, Dickinson 12
Keith: Wesley 42, Dickinson 21
Actual: Wesley 49, Dickinson 21
Pat: Millsaps 35, Carnegie Mellon 34;
Keith: Millsaps 35, Carnegie Mellon 28
Actual: Carnegie Mellon 21, Millsaps 0
Pat: Christopher Newport 28, Washington and Jefferson 27
Keith: Christopher Newport 28, Washington and Jefferson 17
Actual: Washington & Jefferson 27, CNU 23
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 31, Hardin-Simmons 28
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Hardin-Simmons 21 (OT)
Actual: UMHB 33, HSU 21
West
Pat: UW-Whitewater 62, St. Norbert 3
Keith: UW-Whitewater 52, St. Norbert 14
Actual: UW-Whitewater 59, St. Norbert 17
Pat: UW-La Crosse 24, Bethel 21
Keith: UW-LaCrosse 35, Bethel 28
Actual: UW-La Crosse 28, Bethel 21
Pat: Whitworth 21, Occidental 19
Keith: Whitworth 23, Occidental 17
Actual: Whitworth 27, Occidental 23
Pat: St. John’s 20, Central 19 (OT)
Keith: Central 23, St. John’s 21
Actual: St. John’s 21, Central 13
Straight up picking winners:
Pat 14-2
Keith 11-5
As far as nailing the scores, there were some where we both had similar margins and it turned out to be in the neighborhood of what we thought. Like UW-L and Bethel or Oxy and Whitworth. In a couple spots, one of us hit the score on the head and the other one hit the other.
If I had to go down all 16 games and say Pat’s pick was closer, Keith’s was, neither were or both were, here’s what I would come up with:
North
– Mount Union 49, Hope 0: Both
– Wheaton 42, MSJ 28: Keith (Pat nailed the 42 for Wheaton, but Keith had a 14-point margin and Pat had a 36-point margin)
– North Central 35, Concordia 6: Neither (Pat nailed the winner, but we were both way off, having it close when it was a blowout.)
– Capital 32, Wittenberg 14: Both (Both had Witt 14, underestimated Cap’s total some)
East
– Wilkes 42, Washington & Lee 0: Both (Pat was a bit closer on margin, Keith nailed the shutout)
– Rowan 20, Hobart 18: Keith
– St. John Fisher 49, Union 21: Neither (Pat had an 11-point margin for SJF, but it was 28)
– Springfield 42, Curry 14: Pat
South
– Wesley 49, Dickinson 21: Both
– Carnegie Mellon 21, Millsaps 0: Neither
– Washington & Jefferson 27, CNU 23: Neither (close on margin, but wrong winners)
– UMHB 33, HSU 21: Both (although 12 points was more than either of us guessed)
-UW-Whitewater 59, St. Norbert 17: Keith
– UW-La Crosse 28, Bethel 21: Both (Keith hit the Margin, Pat nearly hit the final score)
– Whitworth 27, Occidental 23: Both
– St. John’s 21, Central 13: Pat or neither, since we both had it as a 1 or 2-point game
So if we had to judge who did better that way:
7 boths
5 neithers
2 Keiths
2 Pats (if you give him SJU)
So even our score predictions were each close on 9 out of 16.
FWIW.
I’m not even going to get into how many times one of us hit the exact score or within 2-4 points of it. Even in some of the games we didn’t hit the margin, one or both of us were very close on one team’s score.
But enough about us. Back to the 16 teams.
When will Carnegie Mellon get any respect? This program has some of the highest admission standards in the country, and I would guess the highest standards of any team that made the tourney. This being said the Tartans have put together the #4 rushing attack in the country. Stats have not been updated in a while, but they also have two 1000 yard rushers in their backfield, both juniors. I cant find another team in the country with that stat. I know they arent the #1 team in the country or anything like that, but as hard as it is to get in there, this is one hell of a team. I say there are at least 2 All-Americans on this team.
I don’t know EM,
I’ve seen a lot of teams this year, and Carnegie Mellon played one of the most disciplined, mistake-free games I’ve seen, but I’m not so sure they’re not getting about the amount of respect they deserve. Pat and I both undershot the defense in our picks, but we were looking at a team that had been really explosive and coming from a conference that had done well in the playoffs before. I give the Tartans a lot of credit, they looked really good against Millsaps. How they fare against Wesley, by far the best team it has played this season, will say a lot about what kind of team they are in the big picture.
How are the admissions standards relevant to their getting respect?
As far as the rushing numbers, when you run 50 times a game, it’s not that hard to have a better rushing offense than everyone but Springfield and Ferrum and Concordia (Wis.), who all run that much too. (I looked, they’re actually way behind Springfield and third after Mount Union). They are definitely a good rushing team, but they also have more than 500 carries this season. Every other team I see with that many carries is among the top 18 nationally in rushing. So that stat can be a little misleading.
The NCAA stats are updated on Tuesdays. So the current ones are through the regular season, not including playoff games.
I really like Carnegie Mellon, I’m just not convinced by what I saw Saturday that we need to have a major readjustment of where they fit in the national picture. That was a 3-loss 7 seed they beat.
Keith, how about SAT’s in the 1100 to 1200 range. How about 22 , yes you read that right, scholar/athlete awards. The point being, CMU has access to a much smaller pool of players. The team QPA is higher than the University average. The beauty of D3 football is that these kids play the game for the love of the game, and at the same time, they actually go to class. CMU probably has one of the highest academic standards in all of D3, so when we get into the playoffs it’s a hell of a big deal for us, and all of the alumni are damn proud of them. And oh yes–they can play.
cmugrad,
What you describe isn’t unique to Carnegie Mellon. D-III kids at all 234 schools play for the love of the game. Doesn’t the entire UAA and most of the Centennial Conference, Liberty League, SCAC, SCIAC, NCAC, NESCAC and Midwest Conference have similar standards?
These are all good things for Carnegie Mellon, but CMU isn’t alone in them.
I prefaced that remark by saying “the beauty of D3 football”. That includes all schools, not just CMU. But I don’t know many schools where the average SAT scores are between 1200 and 1300 and that definately limits the pool for athletes.
“CMU probably has one of the highest academic standards in all of D3”
You also singled out Carnegie Mellon, and Pat makes a good point … that there are a lot of schools in D3 with very high academic standards, and a majority with high standards for its football players.
Given how things turned out, I’m pretty confident I said the right thing on Nov. 20:
“I really like Carnegie Mellon, I’m just not convinced by what I saw Saturday that we need to have a major readjustment of where they fit in the national picture. That was a 3-loss 7 seed they beat.”