It’s all over but the number crunching, right?
Some years Pool B is a bear. Pool C is always a bear. And bracketing the teams is often easy to project but distasteful to do thanks to the NCAA’s grip on the pursestrings.
This year, at least, Pool B is easy. Three teams ran the table and finished 10-0, with Washington & Jefferson finishing 9-1. There were no other one-loss teams … or teams with two overall losses … in Pool B. Carnegie Mellon will give the UAA a playoff representative for the first time since 1999.
Pool C was not as easy. There are nine teams with one loss and only seven spots in Pool C. This year our team of bracketologists went one step further in our playoff projections, mocking up the final regional rankings that the committee will work from. We felt this was important with the shuffling in the East Region and especially the West, because Pool C candidates are evaluated in the order in which they are ranked in the region. The top team on the board in each of the four regions are evaluated against each other, and once a team is put in the field, the next team from its region replaces it on the list.
These are the primary criteria (not in priority order) which will be reviewed by the NCAA:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• In-region head-to-head competition
• In-region results against common regional opponents
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams.
Opponents are considered ranked only if they are ranked at the time of the ranking or playoff selection process.
• Quality of wins index–only contests versus regional competition (see Quality of Wins on the left-hand rail for most recent calculation)
• Conference postseason contest(s) is included.
One thing was brought home to me over the past year: Note that some areas say “results†against regional opponents, regionally ranked teams, etc. This does not say winning percentage. It’s possible that merely playing a regionally ranked team and losing is better than going 0-0. Something to keep in mind.
Here’s our best guess at the Field of 32, through the end of the regular season.
Wilkes Bracket
1. Wilkes (A)
2. Springfield (A)
3. St. John Fisher (C)
4. Hobart (C)
5. Union (A)
6. Rowan (A)
7. Dickinson (A)
8. Curry (A)
Hobart and Union are conference rivals, who do not need to meet in the first round as long as the NCAA’s “geographic proximity” is maintained. Curry plays at Wilkes, Dickinson at Springfield, Union at St. John Fisher and Rowan at Hobart. Dickinson moves over because … alas … we do not project Cortland State to be in the bracket. More on those decisions later.
Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Capital (C)
3. Concordia (Wis.) (A)
4. Wheaton (C)
5. Mt. St. Joseph (A)
6. North Central (A)
7. Wittenberg (A)
8. Hope (A)
No shuffling required here. Remember, the NCAA has not flinched in the past at rematches of teams that met in non-conference games. Therefore, Wittenberg playing Capital again and Concordia and North Central meeting up is not a problem. Mt. St. Joseph cost itself a home game with its loss to Thomas More. Again note who’s absent, just the two Pool C teams in this bracket.
Wesley Bracket
1. Wesley (B)
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor (A)
3. Hardin-Simmons (C)
4. Carnegie Mellon (B)
5. Washington and Jefferson (B)
6. Christopher Newport (A)
7. Millsaps (A)
8. Washington and Lee (A)
Wow, Washington and Lee, falling behind a team that wasn’t even in the regional rankings last week. Ouch. Bad way to go into the playoffs. Now, of course, this is a vastly geographically challenged bracket. Millsaps can get to Mary Hardin-Baylor in 491.7 miles according to the NCAA’s approved mapping software (Mappoint, available to all online, with the shortest possible distance setting as always). This opens up a potential flight to bring someone to Hardin-Simmons, and Christopher Newport is seeded perfectly for the task. The two Pittsburgh-area teams play each other … and Washington and Lee goes to Wesley.
Wait, did we just construct a South bracket where the seedings hold true? Stop the presses!
Oh, right, no presses on the Web. So we march on.
UW-Whitewater Bracket
1. UW-Whitewater (A)
2. Central (A)
3. Whitworth (B)
4. UW-La Crosse (C)
5. Occidental (A)
6. Bethel (A)
7. St. John’s (C)
8. St. Norbert (A)
This is another bracket that requires a flight, with Occidental and Whitworth the logical teams to pair. St. Norbert treks to Whitewater, St. John’s to Central and Bethel to UW-La Crosse.
So our seven Pool C teams: Capital, St. John Fisher, Hobart, Wheaton, Hardin-Simmons, UW-La Crosse and St. John’s. The final three teams at the end were St. John’s, Cortland State and Franklin. (Trinity, as the top remaining South team, was also on the board but wasn’t a factor.) All three have very similar criteria.
We pondered some bracket scenarios in case the NCAA selected Franklin. That would put them in the North bracket in the No. 6 spot. North Central, most likely, would lift out of the North and head to the West where they would be a No. 8 seed, behind St. Norbert in most of the criteria. If they selected Cortland, then Dickinson stays in the South as the No. 6, Washington and Jefferson would likely move to the North, likely as the No. 6, and North Central goes to the West.
I can only speak knowledgeably on the South bracket, Pat, but I think your projections are spot-on there.
Except the fact that you’v got Hobart ranked 4 and Union ranked 5 on the bracket….
I think you meant to have Rowan at 5 and Union at 6 correct?
I think he means the seedings that he has, but sometimes the seedings don’t necessarily lead to the matchups, he probably means that (4) Hobart will play (6) Rowan and (3) fisher will play (5) Union, to avoid the conference rematch.
Yes, avoiding the conference rematch, as I wrote.
Should be an interesting day! Look forward to seeing you on ESPNNEWS!! What’s the over/under on mispronounced schools this year?
Oops, just saw the bracket not the blurb….
Portgrad2004: Zero! That’s one of the reasons I’m in the studio instead of doing a live remote like in 2003 and 2004.
Aha! I see Pat….that makes sense….We wouldn’t want them to call Hobart Hubert or something like that….
Wouldn’t it be more fun to make ESPN look foolish? Nah! Good job keep them in line!
Also I didn’t like it when they stuffed you in the ESPN Zone!
Ehh, nah, they take this seriously. Same anchor as last year, too.
Wow, what games have you been watching ? Cortland State’s only loss was on the road to a strong Rowan team in OT…They ended the season with a tough OT win using their 4th string QB…
Cortland will be in the field tomorrow. Anything else would be an injustice.
What about Bridgewater? Even though they may have two losses they are still the best team in the ODAC. After their past showing in the playoffs they should get the nudge this year.
It doesn’t matter who Hobart plays in the 1st round. Both Rowan and Union have beaten them the past two years in huge competition plays. However, the Statesmen have a very solid senior class backed by talented juniors and sophmores that can turn any game around if they play together. What might prove to be the difference is the special teams of Hobart, lead by punter Dominick Ancona, who is one of the best punters in D3 football with an average of 41 yrds a punt. If Ancona maintains his prowess, the Statesmen defense will be able to control the game because of field position domination. If the Game is played at Hobart, I have the Statesmen coming with the win, only if the offense plays as a unit and the defense plays Hobart football. Union and Rowan are going to face a very different team that is hungry for a trip to Salem.
Pat,
why would you think the committee would move north central to the west bracket and not concordia? seems easier to move them?
I would hate to say it but I have had a sick feeling all week Cortland would be left out of the playoffs no matter what they did in Cortaca. The NCAA As a Cortland fan I hold my head high. We were 9-1, with 1 loss on the road in OT with our 3rd string QB to the defending regional champions. We blew out Montclair, beat Ithaca, and got big victories over Kean and Brockport.
If that isn’t enough, then there isn’t much we can say about it.
Dickinson has 0 wins versus teams with a winning record this season. Did you read what I just wrote? 0 wins. They played two decent teams – Ursinus and Hobart, and lost to both of them. Why does the East need this team when it has strong teams from strong conferences with better records than Dickinson? To boot Dickinson barely won the games they won. 14-0 over Juniata? 22-21 over Hampden-Sydney? Give me a break. They would be mid-pack in the NJAC.
Yeah I know we are getting into the whole Pool A vs Pool C thing, and that Dickinson and Cortland are not competing for the same playoff spot. But they sure are if Dickinson gets moved into the East.
I say keep Cortland should be in this bracket. Send them to Wilkes (a mere 2 hour trip), match Curry with Springfield, and lets get thing on.
Del-Val’s last 3 games have pulled them into the play-offs! Yesterdays blanking of host Widner (ranked second in scoring) was well earned! They also blanked host Juniata the previous week! They are playing on all cylinders right now! The MAC Champ for the last 2 years is ready and poised to defend their title!! GO AGGIES!!
Pat…..certainly respct your D3 knowledge but Franklin should absolutely get a spot…..high powered offense and a really strong defense….. a team that is playing their best football at the end of the season. Their phenomenal fan base WILL TRAVEL in big numbers wherever they go!!! This is a high octane team that can be really dangerous……smacking Hanover yesterday and the week before shutting out a potentially playoff bound Defiance team on the road coupled with their early season win over Wabash are reasoins enough to send the Grizzlies to the playoffs…..the committee should recognize and reward schools that have had phenomenal seasons whether or not they are “new kids on the block” Franklin celebrated 100 years of football at the college a few years ago….they deserve this opportunity!
Thank you RunFerrum for your kind words. The announcers at yesterday’s BC/Catholic game said that Millsaps would have to beat Trinity for BC to get in to the tournament. Millsaps defeated Trinity 34-12. What else would have to happen for BC to get in. If we don’t get in, it could be due to lackluster play against Guilford and E&H;in which case, we have it coming.
Two NJAC teams belong in the playoffs. Dickenson probably wouldn’t beat Kean. They might even be bottom three in the NJAC.
Usee: They don’t usually move higher seeded teams. It’s not hard to move North Central either.
mpEagle: Your broadcast team failed you. You needed probably to have about six teams lose for Bridgewater to get in.
Going stricly on records, you leave out some very excellent teams. A week 2 OT loss to # 12 Wilkes and a mid-season upset by Susquehanna should not penalize a team like Delaware Valley that finished second in the MAC behind Wilkes, the #1 seed in your regional picks, and finished by shutting out its last three opponents, good teams from Kings and Widener.
Other teams with similar records made your list.
This is not a down year for the MAC. It is a year where the MAC has gained some parity in its ranks. The emergence of Wilkes and Kings to join Delaware Valley and Widener at the top of the MAC should tell you that.
Ehh, no offense, but it should penalize Delaware Valley. Two losses, one to a 2-8 team? Not gonna make the cut any time. Remember Wilkes was the last one in last year and its second loss was to a 5-5 team.
Cortland does belong over Dickenson.With only 1 loss to a quality team on the road I would be surprised if they don’t get in. The only thing negative is the fact that they are down to a 4th string QB, but that was good enough to beat Ithaca when they had to. Enough of that . GO PRIDE!
If Cortland doesn’t get in, that would be a big screw job IMHO. Also, Rowan deserves to be in among the top four seeds. The Profs should have a home game in round one, given Union’s loss to RPI and Cortland’s defeat of Ithaca.
BTW D1-AA Robert Morris finished at 7-4 and in second place in their conference. During the season they beat at least one team ranked in the D1-AA top 25. Remember Rowan doesn’t play Harwick, Utica, Norwich, WPI, Becker, Endicott etc. Something should be said for how tough the NJAC is.
If it were me setting the bracket:
1. Wilkes
2. Springfield
3. St. John Fisher
4. Rowan
5. Hobart
6. Cortland
7. Union
8. Curry
Pat…Would Union be projected to be behind Hobart because of their 2 losses even though the won the AQ and beat Hobart? All the “logic” makes my head spin.
Dickinson won their conference and has EARNED an automatic bid.
Win your conference and don’t leave it up to the committee.
BTW, CortlandFootball, the Dickinson-Juniata game was an absolute mudbowl. Scoring points was nearly impossible. Maybe you stick to building your team up instead of trying to knock others. Good luck – hope you make it.
GO DEVILS!!!
Pat,
What was your reasoning for taking SJU over the other two: Cortland and Franklin? If you look at QOW SJU is behind Cortland…not sure about Franklin.
I could go off here about how the East doesn’t deserve any pool C’s because the competition out there is not as good, but I won’t. Yes Rowan played MUC tough last year in losing 19-7, but they seem like an annomoly rather than the trend.
Year in year out the West is the toughest bracket based on scores in the games.
Well I’ve resigned myself to Cortland not getting in. We’re the #15 team in the nation in last week’s D3Football poll, and we’ll probably go up after beating Ithaca. But that’s not enough to make the NCAA’s field of 32. I guess I’ll be pleasantly surprised if we get a bid at 2pm, but I know the odds are slim.
Just out of curiosity…I wonder who the highest ranked team in a D3Football poll to never make the playoffs was? Might we set an infamous record?
Cortland did declare for the ECAC’s. I don’t know how fired up the team will be to play in an ECAC game, but at least the seniors will get one more game before they graduate. I hope they put a chip on their shoulders for that game.
Another question…
Why is Rowan always ranked so low in these projections? Am I missing something? They lost 1 D3 game, in the NJAC, in OT to a long time rival with a 7-3 record. Look at Fisher’s loss – a blowout. Look at Hobart’s loss – a blowout. Springfield lost 24-7 to IC, which lost to Cortland, which lost to Rowan. Doesn’t anyone respect the NJAC? I never thought I’d become a Rowan fan, but I’m going to be their biggest supporter outside of the Boro if they end up seeded as low as we are projecting.
Guys, Dickinson gets in because they won the Centennial Conference championship. There is no Dickinson versus Cortland choice to make.
IMO, the final spot comes down to Cortland and St. John’s–so I’m agreeing with Pat, et. al there. It will be interesting to see which one the committee picks, and how that affects other regions.
CortlandFB –
Agree that if Cortland gets left out it would be a shame. Unfortunately, if this is the case, it will prob be due to an off year for the NJAC compared to other eastern conferences.
I’m guessing it will be SJU as well but it will be very interesting if Courtland’s tiny Quality of Wins edge has any influence. Given the flaws in the Q of W, you’d think a difference that small wouldn’t get too much weight.
While it doesn’t mean much, it’s interesting at least to note that the last time the East managed to get a team to the Stagg. They were soundly beaten by a No. 7 West seed (and a few years later another West No. 7 played Mount Union in that great 10-7 Stagg).
I’ll admit it now that I feared all along that SJU was a bit overated this year. It did not win in its usual style. Seemed very inconsistent. Despite starting with two wins over the WIAC (UWEC was down a bit), Concordia was also down and Carleton was improved but not the breakthrough team everyone thought. The problem is once they start winning and keep winning it’s tough to downgrade them.
Bottom line: It didn’t improve throughout the season as the better SJU teams do. Combined with the injuries vs. Bethel, it could be a tough go for SJU — assuming it gets in.
I understand why Dickinson gets in, but Cortland not getting in is a travesty! Surely there’s a way for Cortland to get in. One loss in OT and beating IC? 9-1 record? Is it that upstate NY has too many good teams?
Oxy will get Central. Whitworth will wither.
Pat is probably resting for his big appearance today, so maybe I can help answer some of these questions since I was involved in the projection process.
“What was your reasoning for taking SJU over the other two: Cortland and Franklin? If you look at QOW SJU is behind Cortland…not sure about Franklin.”
Franklin (10.400) is actually in front of both teams in QOW, but we projected SJU instead for a couple reasons.
1) First, what you don’t see here is the mock regional projections we had to make before the Pool C picks. To truly simulate the process, that’s what you have to do – pick the regional top 10 and then pick the Pool Cs. That’s how the committee does it.
We thought yesterday’s results dropped Ithaca out of the East regional rankings, opening a spot for another team like Delaware Valley. Why does that matter? Because by knocking Ithaca out of the regional rankings, Cortland deprives itself of a “win against regionally ranked teams.” An unfortunate Catch-22 for the Red Dragons. Suddenly Cortland’s only regionally ranked opponent is Rowan to whom they lost.
Similarly in the West, there is some chance that Wartburg drops out of the regional rankings by losing to Dubuque and St. Olaf takes their place. If that’s the case, SJU gains a win over a regionally ranked opponent to go 1-1 with the loss to Bethel.
2) The QOQ difference between Cortland and SJU is relatively small (10.222 to 10.200). Base on past experience, the difference between two teams needs to be more substantial for it to be the only deciding factor.
3) The Committee has taken two MIAC teams in the past. Like last year and the year before that. The same can be said for the NJAC, but not the HCAC. Plus the HCAC has gone 1-7 in the playoffs since automatic bids were awarded. They might fall into the same category as MWC, NEFC and some other conferences as being highly unlikely to grab two bids.
4) Because the primary criteria are so close and there aren’t any secondary criteria, we looked at how the Regional committees have treated each of these teams in previous Regional Rankings. Cortland entered the week behind SJF and Hobart and probably won’t leap them. Franklin entered the week behind Capital and Wheaton (Ill.) and probably won’t leap them either.
SJU on the other hand was second in the region. Would a loss really drop them from No. 2 to out of the playoffs completely? We suspect not – so they got the final Pool C bid in our projections.
Bigdubdiesel, judging from the time at which you posted your “Hobart love letter” I would guess that you just came off a celebration from the win over Rochester. Hobart will only ever be as good a team to win one game in the NCAA’s because of their high school style of football. Lining 8 up in the box and blitzing everyone on every play is hardly college football. I’d like to see Cortland make it in instead of Hobart or have those two teams play. My selections for the dance…
1) Wilkes
2) Springfield
3) Fisher
4) Rowan
5) Union
6) Cortland
7) Dickinson
8) Curry…….Why they let a team from the NEFC play in the NCAA’s is beyond me!!!! Bottom team from Liberty League leaves and becomes a contender the very next year shows you something. Any decent team wanted to make it to the National playoffs just to say they did should join that league!!!!! Curry goes ever year and gets pounded….this just doesn’t make sense.
Last year’s debacle, sending OXY on the road to #1 Linfield was embarrasing for the NCAA. Please make some amends this year and give us fans in LA a home game! Better yet, send Central out here for a revenge game since the last meeting…the ice bowl of 1986 playoffs, a 71-0 Dutchies rout on a frozen field.
Pat
If the #1’s hold true do you see #1 thru #4 as
1. Mt.Union
2. U-W Whitewater
3. Wesley
4. Wilkes
You people need to chill about the automatic bids. That’s the game, it always has been…no matter what the sport. Cortland wouldn’t even get a sniff if this was a 28-team tournament.
Can there be an upset – absolutely. It is what it is, so if you don’t do your job, this is the risk you run.
Why is Rowan always ranked so low in these projections? Am I missing something?
A fair question considering Rowan’s national reputation and their dominance of the East region. The reason is that the Profs don’t do well in the more mathematical criteria.
They only had 7 regional games (Robert Morris and CNU aren’t in region) so losing a game gives them a Regional Win Percentage of .857. Of the ten teams in our mock regional rankings, that is only higher than Union and Del Val.
In QOW, the Profs have a 9.587. That is only higher than Del Val and lower than every other AQ in the region, even Curry. Remember that the QOW is based on mathematical criteria (what was the record of the team you beat, where did you play them) not subjective criteria like is Coast Guard really better than TCNJ.
They lost 1 D3 game, in the NJAC, in OT to a long time rival with a 7-3 record. Look at Fisher’s loss – a blowout. Look at Hobart’s loss – a blowout. Springfield lost 24-7 to IC, which lost to Cortland, which lost to Rowan.
Del-Val’s last 3 games have pulled them into the play-offs! Yesterdays blanking of host Widner (ranked second in scoring) was well earned!
This is an issue that comes up a lot when talking to fans and even coaches. Margin of victory is not a criteria and there’s no evidence that it is considered at all.
In other words, Delaware Valley’s 3 straight shut outs is impressive but not all that important for the committee’s selections. The loss to Susquehanna (who ended up giving Del Val a 0 in QOW for that game) matters far, far more. Incidentally I spoke with Del Val Head Coach Jim Clements after yesterday’s game. He said it best – if you don’t win the conference, you don’t control your own destiny and there’s a good chance you’re not getting in.
Similarly, the Committee has shown that is less concerned about margin of defeat in ranking the Pool C teams in the East. Cortland did lose to Rowan by less than SJF lost to Springfield and Hobart lost to Union. But the Cards and the Statesmen were both in front of Cortland in last week’s regional rankings.
I’ve been reading and thinking about all the sceanrios. Here’s what I don’t like. And I’ll admit I’m more than a little biased. Per the d3 gang CNU shuold go to HSU. Why? CNU, UMHB and HSU all have 1 in region loss. CNU beat ASC champ UMHB. Common opponents for CNU and HSU is UMHB…CNU won, HSU lost……….makes no sense to me….Seems to me…send someone else to HSU or UMHB…..if CNU has to play a Texas team…they come to our house!!
Sorry about the excessive bolding on the last one. Or maybe I should say sorry about the excessive bolding on the last one.
Moving right along…
“Just out of curiosity…I wonder who the highest ranked team in a D3Football poll to never make the playoffs was? Might we set an infamous record?”
Very good question. Of course, we’ve only been doing our Top 25 poll for a couple years and the NCAA only expanded to 32 teams last year. So you’ve got a couple different variables that limit the amount of data to consider (wow, social science nerd alert).
Here are the highest ranked teams in our poll who missed the playoffs…
2003: Mary-Hardin Baylor (No. 15 in the final poll, No. 11 entering the playoffs)
2004: Ohio Northern (No. 19 in the final poll, No. 15 entering the playoffs)
2005: Ohio Northern (No. 18 in the final poll, No. 20 entering the playoffs)
Cortland will probably be in the No. 13-15 range this week. So UMHB may keep this infamous record.
It’s all just thought and conjecture until the selections are actually made today at 2PM!
So hold on to your bootstraps because I have the feeling it’s gonna be a bumpy ride and someone will most likely be left out that deserves to be in! But isn’t that a credit to the quality of D-3 football in the northeast?
I know that’s no consalation to a team that wins 9 football games, but after watching and listening to d-3 football every week it’s amaising how good each team actually is and how competative each league is!
Even with NCAA basketball every year they select a huge field of teams and still someone feels they have been left out! Good luck to all it’s been a hell of a season!
Would Union be projected to be behind Hobart because of their 2 losses even though the won the AQ and beat Hobart?
We think so based on the Regional Win Percentage and QOW.
Hobart 0.889, 11.667, 1-1 (Beat Hobart, lost to Union)
Union 0.778, 10.444 1-1 (Beat Hobart, Lost to Springfield)
Maybe the committee will favor head-to-head result (another primary criteria) more, but this is generally the kind of difference in QOW and regional winning % that has an impact.
By the way, our record with projections is generally very good, but not perfect, on picking the teams.
Last year we missed one (Alfred for Wilkes). So there’s reason for Cortland and Franklin fans to hold out hope here.
Oops. That Hobart line two posts above should read “Beat Alfred, lost to Union.”
Gordon…thanks for giving me the reasoning on why you selected SJU over Franklin and Cortland…I am an SJU fan but not confident that we will get the bid and I will say it again any pool C that gets in from the East would not fare well in the WIAC or the MIAC…I think St. Olaf and Oshkosh would be better teams
I disagree that St. Olaf or Oshkosh would be better than Cortland State, which we project to be out.
LC5 – when did being aggressive and attacking on defense become the equivalent of “playing hs football”?
gordon – thx for the explanations
I don’t like the West vs. East comparisons, because they basically never play each other so who knows? On top of that, it seems when they do play each other in the playoffs, the East team has to travel across the country rather than the other way around. Think RPI being shipped to St John’s.
I have a novel idea. Let’s see a MIAC team travel to Glassboro to play Rowan in the playoffs? Or send them to Union? I wonder how strong the west would look after traveling that far and playing on the other team’s turf and dealing with a hostile crowd.
It’s kinda like the College Bowl system. For years the theory was Miami, FSU, Florida, etc were the best teams in the nation because they proved iit in the bowls every January. Of course, every January they got to play the bowls in their backyards, in the climate they were used to, with no jet lag to deal with. Think Miami would have been so dominant playing Notre Dame in a bowl hosted in the mid west? How about playing the Rose Bowl in Michigan? It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Cortland not in the playoffs !? Ridiculous……..9-1 record with their two final games going into overtime . Their lone OT loss to a tough Rowan team and dont forget the big win in OT over Ithaca – anyone who was there knows what a thriller it was – raining: who cares ! Give those men their just reward – they deserve it.