Phew, well, I think we’re finally digging out from the craziness of the afternoon — no, not me at home with the three kids while my wife was working, but the systems failure at D3Scoreboard.com. Well, both.
Big news of the day … the lack of offense at Rowan and Cortland State. Ray Miles, already the backup thrust into a starting role at QB for the Red Dragons, broke his finger and his replacements struggled against the fierce Rowan D … the rest of the East upheaval … Linfield loses at home to Whitworth, lending some legitimacy to Whitworth’s ranking … teams clinching bids left, right and center (Mount Union, UW-Whitewater, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Wilkes, Hope, Dickinson).
I still have family time with my kids before I head back to Connecticut tomorrow but I am opening the floor for other comments.
Well GOP I wrote my last post before I saw your apology. That was cool, thanks. NE football, Tillo is a very strong runner and has the potential to be a dangerous back. I think he would get a lot more carries for most other teams. I was very impressed with him at Hobart. I feel he, working with all other Dutchmen weapons, could hold his own against RPI. To be at full force though Union must have Arcidicano. Tillo also does a nice job recieving in the flat and blocking. The Dutchmen also have this Johnson kid who is tiny but fast and shifty as lightning. I think he would possibly see some action on Saturday if Arcidiacano is being rested. Should the Dutch rest Arcidicano against RPI( I think I spell his name different each time..sorry)? Any thoughts?
CMURyan,
Check out Massey Ratings as another resource for schedule strength. I am not saying Massey is better than D3football.com, it is just an additional tool with which you can come to conclusions.
http://www.masseyratings.com/
The Massey college football section is, or course, having trouble today.
I am hearing that TA’s sprain was minor and that he will likely be in the lineup vs RPI. However, I would not be surprised if Coach Audino limits TA’s carries somewhat and rotates Tillo and the other RB’s at tailback.
While Union has the LL locked up a win vs RPI is still very important as it will result in a much higher seed and a home game(s) in the NCAA’s
Liberty League talk makes me sleepy…. Bring on the playoffs!
SeanGOP- entertaining comment but you better watch it, the blog police have a short leash.
CMURyan-
“We do not endorse this as a way of measuring teams; we publish it only because it is a measure the NCAA uses.”
That’s what Pat has at the top of the index they post on here to let you know QOWI is a joke and not a great a great measure of teams. It’s too bad it’s even a tool that the NCAA uses to select teams. But I guess you can’t expect much from the same outfit that will put a #1 seed vs. a #2 seed if it solves their travel/budget concerns.
Yeah, that’s what I figured. Not sure why the NCAA wouldn’t just use the same formula they use in D1. For all the problems with the BCS, the strength of schedule data is at least significant. Problem is, that for this blog and the message board, we don’t have any meaningful data to say who has actually played a tougher schedule, so arguing over rankings etc is futile.
I agree pumkinhead – LL is sleepy, hence the reason why the UC defense is waking up – its November.
Bring on the playoffs!!!
Out til next week.
YES NEfootball!
Any fans of teams in the West hoping Linfield sneaks in to the playoffs? There 5-3, so they’d be a pushover, right? I’m guessing no, which might explain why they’re still ranked.
Very frustrating to completely dominate a game, but lose because you can’t hold onto the ball. The weather was terrible, yes, but its November in Oregon.
To the powers that be? For the past 3 or 4 years, the West region has been overloaded with good teams. (Far more so, than any other region, in total. And that is not disputed.) And then, if you look at the all time playoff records, by conference, you will see that the NWC is #2, behind Mt. Union (OAC). So if there is a connference that deserves a second team in the playoffs, it would have to be both the OAC, and the NWC. In addition, again this year, the West has two of the top three nationally ranked teams, in St. Johns (MN) and UW Whitewater. Let’s not make the same mistake that was made last year, when Linfield and UW Whitewater played (in a National quarterfinal game – instead of the Nat’l semi’s or finals). Yes, Mt. Union beat UW Whitewater, but it was UWW’s worst game of the year, in many peoples opinions. And Mt Union has been the mainstay at this level for over a decade!
For example: When the NCAA makes out the bracket for the top 64 (65) teams in division 1 basketball, they don’t pick 16 teams from each region? NO, they pick the top teams remaining, after the automatic berths are handed out. Then they send teams from each region to different areas around the country, in an effort to balance each of the brackets, right?
Well, along those lines, I would like to make a suggestion: this is the perfect year to send St. Johns (they will beat Bethel soundly, this coming weekend) to the East region as the #2 seed in the East (Ok, we’ll let Wilkes be the #1 seed), but after that, that region is really weak, again! Case in point. Two years ago Rowan was the talk of the East and when they played Linfield from the West, it was 52-0 (and Linfield shut it down early). I am sorry, but the Empire 8 doesn’t deserve two teams in the playoffs? Springfield has beaten both SJF and Alfred this year, and deserves to go. Furthermore, the North could use a little beefing up in the middle of their bracket strength. So, I would also suggest that the NCAA send either UW Lacrosse to the North as a #4 seed. In both situations, those teams are close enough to prevent prohibitive costs for the traveling teams.
Then the West would look something like this: UW Whitewater#1 would host #8 Bethel (after they lose to St. Johns, they will drop behind Linfield and Wartburg and St. Norbert); #2 Central (after St. John’s is moved to the East) would host #5 St. Norbert; #3 Whitworth (after UW Lacrosse is moved to the North) would host #6 Wartburg; and #4 Occidental would host #7 Linfield. (UW Lacrosse would be moved to the North as the #4 Seed and host the #5 seed.)
I would leave the South to itself, this year, with several teams from Texas vying for playoff spots. There, I just solved the problem of the national power embalance and I rewarded those conferences/schools that have the toughest schedules year in and year out. Now we can see if there are still 3 West region teams remaining after the regional finals are played? And if not, there will be atleast two, and my suggestions will be supported with the performances on the field(s). – No team from the East will come within two touchdowns of St. Johns (MN), and UW Whitewater will probably win the West. The only question is whether or not UW Lacrosse wins two or three games in the North? Ok, everyone can go home now, I’ve put the puzzle together! 😉
Didn’t the other team have to hold onto the ball in the same conditions?
Have been reading for a while now, just curious, I haven’t seen any comments on officating (good/bad) at the games, any reason for that?
It’s probably been noted somewhere but that Linfield’s most-recent loss is eerily similar to St. John’s 3rd loss in 2004.
My guess is that they could likely give just about any team in the bottom half of the top 25 a pretty good run . . . not that we’ll get a chance to see.
Pat –
I have been saying “Capital to the East bracket” for 2 weeks now, and I am sticking to it. I have no idea how the east is going to shake out, particularly with the match-ups on tap this week. What I do know is there will be a lot of arguments among 2-loss teams, and that is where I think Capital gets imported.
I would love to see our Eastern teams match up against a great team like Capital.
Alfred is going to have a hard time getting in, even if they beat SJF. The Saxons loss to Hobart looks uglier after what Union did to Hobart.
CMU-
Check out the Massey Ratings as was suggested in an earlier post. I run my own power ratings too. The Laz-Index is another good one. The Laz creator has been known to post on Post Patterns.
I use these computer ratings to look at strength of conference, and strength of schedule. I do not believe computer ratings are advanced enough (yet?) to determine champions in advance on a consistent basis. However I feel they are excellent in making broad assumptions – such as whether a team is grossly over-ranked or grossly under-ranked, and how strong a schedule or conference is.
These are mathematical/objective answers to your question, so for the purposes of this blog they can certainly be discussed. They are imperfect, but far superior to QOWI.
I only need two Pool C teams from the East to fill the eight-team bracket.
What does your bracket look like Pat?
I’ve got the following:
Pool A – Rowan
Pool A – Curry/Coast Guard
Pool A – Springfield
Pool A – Union
Pool A – Wilkes
Pool C – Cortland vs Ithaca winner
Pool C – SJ Fisher if they beat Alfred, Hobart if Alfred wins
Pool C – Capital (assuming they beat Baldwin-Wallace)
I don’t see Alfred getting in because Hobart is ahead of them. Del Valley is out because of their Susquehanna loss.
This seems fair to me – 2 Pool C teams from Eastern Region.
You’ll find out Tuesday with everyone else. 🙂
OK friends . . .
What happens if Rochester (7-2) beats Hobart? That may not be as far-fetched as some may think?
Cortland… do you think the winner of the Cortica Jug gets in as a Pool C?
After our disappointing loss last week… I thought IC was done. Congrats to Alfred on a great win. After being up 17-7 in the second quarter, I thought the Bombers would roll.
Eagle:
While I appreciate your sentiment about the West’s strength, some of your suggestions don’t fly (literally). The NCAA looks at geographic proximity when setting its pairings and isn’t going to pay for three teams to fly into St. John’s.
St. John Fisher doesn’t deserve a bid with one loss to Springfield while Bethel would with two loses including one to Carleton (2-5 MIAC)? You can make a case that some two-loss teams are better than SJF but Bethel won’t be one of them.
Cortland,
I think Ithaca’s playoff hopes may be dashed and Cortland is the team playing for a Pool C bid. If Alfred beats Fisher, I would say that their two-loss resume would be better than Ithaca’s because Alfred won the head-to-head match-up. I think there are too many one-loss teams right now that would eliminate some two-loss teams. Alfred’s also in a tenuous spot. I think if they beat Fisher they would deserve a bid, but I don’t know if they would get it. This could end up as the same scenario as last year. If Cortland loses, I’m not sure they make it. Granted, their losses would be in back-to-back games against Rowan and Ithaca. I guess we’ll have to wait and see on that.
And there was some speculation Capital would be shipped to the East last year. They ended up in the North and made it to the regional final and took Mount Union to the limit. John Carroll was shipped East in 2002 and won the regional, defeating Brockport in a great overtime game. If Capital is shipped East, they’d be my favorite to win the region. But, I think they may still end up in the North Region on the opposite end of the pairings from Mount.
I agree with johnny mac…i feel that ithaca is done no matter what…..Cortland is also finished with a loss…when looking at pool c, i do not see a lot of room for two loss teams currently…..which one of the following teams would you replace with a two loss team (UWLacrosse, Cortland, Capital, Hardin Simmons, St Johns Fisher, Wartburg, Hobart). I believe that this would be pool C if the season ended today. Obviously more remains to be decided on the field. Capital (against Baldwin Wallace) and Cortland (versus Ithaca) have the best chance if losing. Crazier things have been known to happen. However, currently I do not have a two loss team in pool C.
AUmom,
If the officiating is good, most of the time no one talks about it. If it is bad, then Katie bar the door. 🙂 Perhaps it has been pretty good lately.
After Alfred handled IC, and if they beat St John Fisher, what other help do they need in order to make the tournament if Springfield beats Norwhitch which than springfield would take the auto bid
JonnyMac/ICBomber-
I still think Ithaca could get a bid. My theory on them is highly predicated on the theory that SJ Fisher will beat Alfred to avenge last season. That would leave Alfred with 3 losses, Fisher would be in, and Ithaca could get in with a win at Cortland.
I was probably premature in breaking down Pool C by making a few games essentially play-ins. Here is perhaps a better way to look at the same situation. This is where I feel the Pool C candidates rank in Eastern Region in terms of who is most likely to get in:
1. SJ Fisher 8-1
2. Cortland 8-1
3. Hobart 7-1
4. Alfred 7-2
5. Ithaca 7-2
6. Del Valley 7-2
7. Rochester 7-2
Two teams are going to get in almost certainly. It is not a stretch to believe 3 could get in.
So for Ithaca to get in, they need to win (obviously) and have Fisher take care of Alfred. That might get the Bombers in as a long shot #3. However if Rochester beats Hobart, which is not unrealistic at all, then Ithaca could leap all the way up to #2.
I retract what I wrote earlier about Cortaca being a play-in game. I think Ithaca needs Hobart and Alfred to lose to get the #2 spot. Cortland simply needs to win to get in.
Reddog –
If Alfred beats Fisher, then this whole thing could turn into a big mess. It would be easy to say “Alfred was the hot team at the end, so they get in.” But they are coming off a recent loss to Hobart, a team which they are competing with for a playoff spot, so it isn’t cut and dry.
Once you lose 2 games, your odds of getting in go way down. You can still get in of course – Cortland did last season by knocking off IC in the final game. But even with the field expanded to 32 teams, it is still difficult.
I think Alfred needs IC to win, and/or Rochester to beat Hobart.
It also is not inconceivable that Fisher, Cortland, and Hobart could all win and finish with 1 loss, and one of them could be left out. But I would lean heavily toward all 3 getting into the tournament if that happened.
VAED: Rochester beating Hobart is not far fetched at all! Rochester’s only losses were to St. John Fisher and Union. Rochester is a vastly improved team from last year and if they beat the Statesmen, they should at least be considered for a playoff bid. I, of course am hoping Hobart does not get stung by those pesky Yellowjackets!
We take kind of a dim view on people who try to pass themselves off as fans of another team than what they really are.
Go Rowan!
Romie where are you? I thought us Hobart fans would get at least one “I told you so”.
Tough match up. two 10 – 0 teams. Wis.-Whitewater and St.Norbert. One has a quick end to a great season without an upset nor underdog rank.