Top 25 poll analysis

Wartburg played its way up in the Top 25.Photo by Caleb Williams,

Wartburg played its way up in the Top 25.
Photo by Caleb Williams,

I’ve often told people that you can’t just analyze a team’s placement or movement in the Top 25 in a vacuum. The reality is, all 25 teams’ placement (and those in the others receiving votes) are all relative.

Case in point this week: Wittenberg moves down three spots in the first regular-season Top 25 after losing by six to Butler, a Division I FCS team (albeit, a non-scholarship opponent). When I’m voting, I try to keep a few things in mind: Did we expect this result, or should we have expected them to win? That may mean I don’t drop Wittenberg or a team in a similar situation (Thomas More) on my ballot.

Nonetheless, Wittenberg dropped three spots. And in all honesty, that’s because Wabash and Wartburg really deserved to move up. Wabash beat a ranked team, while Wartburg basically dismantled a pretty decent team.

It may also be helpful to look at the poll points. They can tell you two things — first of all, where are the tiers of teams, and secondly, how far a team truly moved each week.

Going back to Wittenberg as our example: The Tigers received 244 points in the preseason poll and 225 in the Week 1 poll. That difference of 19 points means that the 25 voters moved Wittenberg an average of about one spot on their ballot. But Wartburg went from 175 points to 267 (plus-92) and Wabash went from 191 to 294 (plus-103). Johns Hopkins, the other team that passed Wittenberg, gained 74 points as they helped erase one of the preseason concerns about their offense.

Wesley and Linfield swap spots. I think it’s pretty easy to see that Wesley beating a ranked team is more impressive than Linfield not playing. And this was only a shift of 12 points: Wesley trailed Linfield by five in the preseason and leads by seven now. There is a cluster of teams ranked 4-7 that are within 18 points of each other, then a big dropoff to No. 8 UW-Platteville and another one to No. 9 St. John Fisher.

Triple Take: Predicting the winners — and the scores

The Framingham-Ithaca game is one of our first-round toss-up picks.
Framingham State athletics photo

For 32 teams across the country, the regular season has built up to this weekend and, if their hopes play out, more weekends to come. They now have the chance to prove their worth on the national stage.’s coverage will be going strong over the next few weeks, and that began with our 32-team capsules, one of the cornerstones of our postseason reporting. They offer insight on how to tell if a team is playing well or poorly, along with how far into the bracket we think each team can make it. We also took a long-view look at who might surprise and disappoint by the time the first three rounds are in the books.

The week’s features culminate with Triple Take, which we do a little differently for the postseason. From now until the second weekend in December, Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and Ryan Tipps will not only pick the winners of games in Triple Take, but we’ll also project the scores. It’s a transparent test of our perceptions week in and week out. (And we each make our picks independently.) Continue reading

Around the Nation podcast: The playoff field

Johns Hopkins either got a fine matchup or the shaft, depending on whom you ask.
Johns Hopkins athletics photo

Subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in iTunes.

When you don’t have to quibble about the 32 teams that made the field, that eliminates a lot of the Selection Sunday hand-wringing. Of course, just because we didn’t think Wabash, or UW-Oshkosh, or St. Thomas or others deserved to make the field doesn’t mean they didn’t have a case to be made. Pat and Keith discuss their cases. Did Johns Hopkins get screwed by having to face Wesley in the first round or is it a fair matchup? Where should Maryville have gone instead of Hampden-Sydney? What chance does Gallaudet have at Hobart? Which is the strongest bracket, and why?

There are so many questions at this time of year, Continue reading