The Quick Hits takes on the semifinals

Well, we’ve spent this past week talking about these games, envisioning what these semifinals look like and now it’s time to get down to the finish and tell you how the games will go. Hopefully we get two great games that will be great examples of Division III football to the audience on ESPN3, but our panelists will let you know below how likely that is.

Enough with the pleasantries. Here’s our takes:

— Pat Coleman (photos by,, Brockport athletics)

The Quick Hits
playoff crew:

Keith McMillan
Ryan Tipps
Pat Coleman
Pat Coleman
Adam Turer
Adam Turer
Frank Rossi
Frank Rossi
Greg Thomas

Mount Union (13-0) at UW-Oshkosh (12-0), 12 p.m. CT, ESPN3

UW-Oshkosh logoKeith: After Round 2, the Titans looked Stagg Bowl-bound. Last week, the Purple Raiders did. So how do we know who wins when they face one another? Both offenses should put points up, and both O-lines keep their quarterback clean. The game is as much about Cole Parrish and Ty Summers as the men they’ll be snapping to. So it’ll come down to whichever defense contains the deep threats, and comes up with a few stops or turnovers; that’ll provide the edge in what should be one of the playoffs’ best games. UW-Oshkosh 31, Mount Union 28.

UW-Oshkosh logoRyan: Both of these teams have all the right stat boxes checked on offense, defense and turnovers — plus being power teams from power conferences makes this perhaps the more intriguing of the weekend’s two matchups. The Titans will do a better job of closing the deal in the red zone, they won’t shoot themselves in the foot with penalties, and quarterback Brett Kasper is simply one of those players who wows me every time he steps onto the field. UW-Oshkosh 28, Mount Union 24.

UW-Oshkosh logoPat: I don’t know how many defensive stops UW-Oshkosh will come up with on Saturday. But the thing to remember is that this is a Mount Union offense that has had some issues with consistency this season. In games where they don’t get challenged, that’s not particularly noticeable, but maybe this isn’t the best Purple Raiders offense. It’s not the 2016 UW-Oshkosh defense either, though, and they may not have the best success against Mount Union. On the other hand, it’s not the 2016 Oshkosh offense, either. This group is better across the board — the Titans are a year older, key players have gotten some time off, and Brett Kasper is better. What I think this adds up to is a relatively high-scoring game. UW-Oshkosh 35, Mount Union 31.

Adam: Did you enjoy last year’s low-scoring defensive battles in the semifinals? Then this game is not for you. Both offenses are humming, but the defenses have not been as dominant as some of the defenses on the other side of the bracket. The matchup to watch here is Mount Union’s linebackers and hybrid safeties against the Titans’ talented and experienced skill position players who will be shifting and motioning in an attempt to beat the Purple Raiders to open space. Mount Union is on a mission and the defense will come up with enough stops to send the Purple Raiders back to Salem. Mount Union 42, UW-Oshkosh 31.

Frank: I’ll be honest, I wasn’t sold at the beginning of the season that Oshkosh could get this far again. With the level of losses to graduation and the hellacious WIAC matchups the Titans needed to get through, it seemed unlikely. This return to the semifinals is a credit to their experienced players, no doubt. Yet, Mount Union comes in with what seems like a chip on the team’s shoulder and a strong desire to return to the Stagg Bowl after a rare miss in 2016.  We saw last week how invaluable the receivers are for the Raiders, regardless of who’s throwing the ball. As long as the defense tightens up and doesn’t allow a decent chunk of points like they did against Frostburg State in the first half, I think Mount Union can keep this game close enough to win it late. Mount Union 28, UW-Oshkosh 24.

UW-Oshkosh logoGreg: There are really not weaknesses on either of these teams. Both teams have great offenses and elite defenses and finding points of separation is almost impossible. If there is a place where one team is slightly less excellent, it is Mount Union’s rush offense. The Raiders may be quite one-dimensional in this game and despite all of the playmakers they have at quarterback and receiver this may be the downfall. Both teams will score, but I give a slight advantage to the Titans and an offense that is almost perfectly diverse. UW-Oshkosh 35, Mount Union 28.

Brockport (13-0) at Mary Hardin-Baylor (13-0), 2:30 CT, ESPN3

Keith: UMHB’s closing speed on defense has been unparalleled. The Cru also tackles well when it arrives at the ball. That’ll be a key against Brockport, as the Golden Eagles spread defenses out and let QB Joe Germinerio pick them apart. If Daquan Hubbard (24 yards a catch) and UMHB CB Kris Brown (4 INT) get matched up, it’ll be worth the price of admission. In the end, Brockport moves the ball and puts up a valiant effort, but the champs are just too solid on defense and special teams, and do enough on offense. Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, Brockport 14.

UMHB logoRyan: In unabashed coach-speak, this season’s UMHB squad has truly been more about the team than the individual. For example, this is only the second time in the past seven seasons that a UMHB player hasn’t been either offensive or defensive All-Region Player of the Year (last year, Cru athletes got both spots). And even still, UMHB is at the top of my ballot. Full respect to all that Joe Germinerio and his fellow Brockport players accomplished this season (and showing that the top tier in D-III doesn’t have to be hereditary), but this is a Cru team that is poised for another 15-game season. Mary Hardin-Baylor 34, Brockport 20.

UMHB logoPat: There’s a different level at this stage of the game, and the defensive speed that throttled Linfield twice and shut down Hardin-Simmons and St. Thomas isn’t likely to be something Brockport has seen, let alone been able to replicate in practice. Meanwhile, the UMHB offense (read: quarterback) is young and will probably make some mistakes, especially against a Brockport defense that has had some statistical success this season. If Brockport adjusts to the speed of the game quickly and keeps its composure, it can make things respectable. But UMHB competes on that higher plane these days, and it will show in the end. Mary Hardin-Baylor 41, Brockport 20.

UMHB logoAdam: It’s hard to fathom that this year’s Crusaders defense may be better than last year’s championship squad that graduated multiple key starters. But, the Cru have dominated opposing offenses all season and Brockport’s prolific offense has never seen a defense like this one. The Cru’s great defense has been crucial to freshman quarterback Carl Robinson III’s development. Brockport’s historic run ends as UMHB punches its ticket for a return to Salem. Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, Brockport 10.


UMHB logoFrank: As the co-host of an East Region podcast, this game is the true battle of heart vs. head for me. We latched onto Brockport after their Week 1 defeat of Hobart and learned how great the personality of QB Joe Germinerio is. The team is indeed stacked on both sides of the ball — maybe we should’ve seen this success coming. However, my head says to never pick against the Cru at home, and Coach Pete Fredenburg’s team wants to make his 20th season sweet with one more trip to Salem. The Cru offense hasn’t buried teams early this year normally, and they won’t do it Saturday. Yet, they will pull away as depth plays a role and the Cru’s insanely good defense digs in during the second half. Mary Hardin-Baylor 31, Brockport 17.

UMHB logoGreg: It has been quite a ride for the Golden Eagles, however the run for the East Region champions is going to end in Belton. Joe Germinerio is a star, but he’s going to face a defense unlike anything that lives in the East — or anywhere else in D-III, frankly. I expect the Crusaders to have a little easier time on offense than they have had the last two weeks, but Coach Fredenburg isn’t after style points at this stage of the tournament. He’ll let his defense handle this, keep Carl Robinson III out of tough situations, and get ready to defend the championship next Friday. Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, Brockport 7.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.



Quick Hits: Predicting the quarterfinals

We’re down to four games, so it’s time to bring a little commentary back — here’s our take on the national quarterfinal games, with, perhaps, something resembling explanation.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their crack at it this week and every week from here to Salem. Photos by; Frostburg State athletics; Delaware Valley athletics; Brockport athletics by Matt Yeoman.

Live video, live stats of quarterfinal games

— Pat Coleman

Wartburg at UW-Oshkosh

Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 42, Wartburg 14. Two of the nation’s five most-efficient passers, in Brett Kasper and Matt Sacia, are facing off, but the jump in level of competition for Wartburg will be evident along the lines.
Ryan’s take: UW-Oshkosh 28, Wartburg 17. The Knights have shaken off the postseason jitters, but the Titans will be beyond their reach. UW-O has already faced (and beaten) Wartburg-caliber teams this season.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 42, Wartburg 20. Oshkosh just has too much speed and too many offensive weapons for the Knights to account for.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 38, Wartburg 17. The Titans have too many playmakers on offense. Brett Kasper is playing his best at the most opportune time. Oshkosh will also be the best defense the Knights have faced this season.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 21, Wartburg 17. Would the real Wartburg please stand up?  Their two playoff games have been dynamically different, but Oshkosh’s defense will keep the score low.
Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 38, Wartburg 14. This is a large step up in class for Wartburg to take this week after wins over Franklin and Trine. I expect the Titan offense to be overwhelming and Oshkosh to advance comfortably.

Hansen odds to advance: UW-Oshkosh, 91%.
Consensus: Oshkosh, comfortably.

Frostburg State at Mount Union

Keith’s take: Mount Union 35, Frostburg State 21. Watch from the lines out; both teams have controlled their playoff games at the LOS; UMU QB D’Angelo Fulford hasn’t been hurried, much less sacked, in either playoff game.
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 31, Frostburg State 24. The question is: How much will this week’s weirdness be a factor? Mount’s offense won’t be on the field all the time, so Frostburg will have a chance to get some points.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Mount Union 31, Frostburg State 17. Great run for Bobcats, who might give Mount a run before running out of options on offense. They won’t have as much success keeping the Mount offense on the sideline.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Mount Union 28, Frostburg State 20. Frostburg’s style of play gives it a better chance than most against the Purple Raiders. The Bobcats are not lacking confidence and will pull out all the stops to keep this season going. I just don’t see Mount Union losing in Alliance.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Mount Union 35, Frostburg State 27. Frostburg beat W&J despite 3 INTs by Cox.  He has to play error-free ball, and the Bobcats must take what they’re given offensively. Yet, UMU has the depth to win this late.
Greg’s take: Mount Union 31, Frostburg St. 24. Turnovers are a bugaboo for the Bobcats and this is the place that you can’t get away with giving it away. The Bobcats are going to push Mount Union, but ultimately I think they are one turnover too many away from advancing.

Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 95%.
Consensus: Mount Union in the 30s, Frostburg State in the 20s.

St. Thomas at Mary Hardin-Baylor

Keith’s take: UMHB 18, St. Thomas 14. Both defenses smother their opponents’ run games, while trying to establish the run. With freshman QB Carl Robinson III starting, expect the Cru to get conservative and keep it low-scoring.
Ryan’s take: UMHB 24, St. Thomas 14. It’s hard to ignore a team that shut out a Top 10 opponent just last week. Lights-out defense for the Cru will carry them yet another playoff level deeper.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: UMHB 17, St. Thomas 13. A special teams score on one side, a gadget play on the other, perhaps, could make it higher scoring in the end, but not by much.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: St. Thomas 27, UMHB 24. This matchup could belong in Salem two weeks later. As long as the Tommies limit their turnovers, their defense will torment the Cru’s inexperienced QB(s) enough to survive and advance.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: UMHB 34, St. Thomas 21. This will be a low-scoring game early, with UMHB pulling away late. The Cru have lacked offensive oomph this year — but have been a defensive power overall.
Greg’s take: St. Thomas 17, UMHB 14. This is about the time in the tournament where freshman quarterbacks make me nervous. These great defenses may play to a stalemate, with some Glenn Caruso special teams sorcery being the deciding factor.

Hansen odds to advance: St. Thomas, 52%.
Consensus: A split decision for a low-scoring game favoring Mary Hardin-Baylor.

Brockport at Delaware Valley

Keith’s take: Brockport 31, Delaware Valley 21. The Golden Eagles’ versatility makes the difference in the only road win of the quarters. Brockport allows 1.18 yards per rush; Del Val gains 5.82, and that’s where we’ll see one side fissure.
Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 31, Brockport 30. Though Brockport has has the tougher road to get to this point, I think Del Val’s defense will hold the Golden Eagles just shy of victory in the long run.
Pat Coleman
Pat’s take: Brockport 28, Delaware Valley 13. A game in which the Golden Eagles are in control early and methodically close out Del Val.
Adam Turer
Adam’s take: Delaware Valley 42, Brockport 41. The Aggies’ aggressive defense and special teams will come up with just enough big plays. A blocked kick could end up being the difference, as quarterbacks Dashawn Darden and Joe Germinerio go toe-to-toe in a game good enough to make us forget Round Two.
Frank Rossi
Frank’s take: Brockport 20, Delaware Valley 14. Many focus on their offenses, but these defenses have been impeccable of late. This will be a slugfest that Brockport wins very late based on a big defensive play.
Greg’s take: Brockport 35, Delaware Valley 14. Joe Germinerio may be the most outstanding player of the tournament so far. He’ll be great again and the Golden Eagles will have a surprisingly comfortable ride to the semifinals.

Hansen odds to advance: Delaware Valley, 55%.
Consensus: Brockport, by varying degrees.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the Quick Hits that were prescient, and the Quick Misses that were terribly off base.


Quick Hits’ take on second-round scores

After an entertaining, but difficult-to-predict first round, our crew is back to give it another shot. So, we look at all eight second-round games and predict the final score. Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Greg Thomas each take their crack at it this week and every week from here to Salem.

— Pat Coleman ( photo)

UW-Oshkosh bracket
Keith’s take:  UW-Oshkosh 35, North Central 31
Ryan’s take: North Central 24, UW-Oshkosh 23
Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 21, North Central 13
Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 24, North Central 20
Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 24, North Central 14
Greg’s take: UW-Oshkosh 27, North Central 13
Hansen odds to advance: UW-Oshkosh, 82%.
Consensus: A competitive, low-scoring game, but generally with the home team on top.
Keith’s take:  Wartburg 28, Trine 27
Ryan’s take: Wartburg 31, Trine 27
Pat’s take: Wartburg 35, Trine 24
Adam’s take: Trine 38, Wartburg 30
Frank’s take: Trine 30, Wartburg 27
Greg’s take: Trine 36, Wartburg 35
Hansen odds to advance: Wartburg, 51%
Points will be scored. Someone will win. Even the Wartburg grad’s algorithm has a toss-up.
Mount Union bracket
Keith’s take:  Mount Union 35, Case 14
Ryan’s take: Mount Union 41, Case 14
Pat’s take: Mount Union 42, Case 17
Adam’s take: Mount Union 38, Case 17
Frank’s take: Mount Union 37, Case 10
Greg’s take: Mount Union 49, Case 10
Hansen odds to advance: Mount Union, 94%.
Case will score two or three times.
Keith’s take:  Frostburg State 31, W&J 29
Ryan’s take: Frostburg State 34, W&J 17
Pat’s take: Frostburg State 21, W&J 17
Adam’s take: Frostburg State 27, W&J 24
Frank’s take: Frostburg State 27, W&J 20
Greg’s take: Frostburg State 28, W&J 24
Hansen odds to advance: Frostburg State, 56%.
Consensus: Quiet confidence in Frostburg State, with most by seven or fewer points.
Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 27, Linfield 17
Ryan’s take: UMHB 23, Linfield 14
Pat’s take: UMHB 20, Linfield 10
Adam’s take: UMHB 31, Linfield 24
Frank’s take: UMHB 24, Linfield 10
Greg’s take: UMHB 24, Linfield 7
Hansen odds to advance: Mary Hardin-Baylor, 82%.
The defending champs, in a generally low-scoring game.
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 34, Berry 14
Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 38, Berry 17
Pat’s take: St. Thomas 42, Berry 20
Adam’s take: St. Thomas 47, Berry 20
Frank’s take: St. Thomas 41, Berry 27
Greg’s take: St. Thomas 34, Berry 17
Hansen odds to advance: St. Thomas, 99+%.
St. Thomas, although Berry could score some points.
Delaware Valley bracket
Keith’s take:  Delaware Valley 22, Husson 9
Ryan’s take: Delaware Valley 31, Husson 10
Pat’s take: Delaware Valley 24, Husson 15
Adam’s take: Delaware Valley 35, Husson 14
Frank’s take: Delaware Valley 31, Husson 17
Greg’s take: Delaware Valley 38, Husson 14
Hansen odds to advance: Delaware Valley, 88%.
Delaware Valley, although it could be close.
Keith’s take:  Brockport 28, Wesley 17
Ryan’s take: Brockport 27, Wesley 24
Pat’s take: Brockport 31, Wesley 27
Adam’s take: Wesley 42, Brockport 38
Frank’s take: Brockport 28, Wesley 27
Greg’s take: Wesley 28, Brockport 27
Hansen odds to advance: Brockport, 67%.
Not exactly unanimous.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps and @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from the second round.