D3football.com Daily Dose | The daily dish on Division III football

Dec/10

17

Triple Take, Stagg Bowl predictions

Twelve years of D3football, Eleven hundred yards for Cecil, Ten Mount title winners, nine linemen clashing, eight Mount All-Regions, seven from Whitewater, six Stagg Bowl meetings, five playoff weeks, four Leipold seasons, three Warhawks rushing, two backup quarterbacks, and one walnut and bronze trophy.

It’s the season of snow and championships, and as of this writing, it seems that Salem is gearing up to welcome both. We’ve heard it said all week, but we are in the midst of the sixth-straight meeting of the Mount Union and UW-Whitewater purple powers. And as in years past, we cap our season of Triple Take predictions with a bevy of guest analysts to give you even more thoughts and insights to pore over — and more predictions to weigh.

Here’s a recap of what we said last season: 2009

And here’s what we have to say today. Come Saturday evening, one of these two teams will be having a much happier holidays than the other.

– Ryan Tipps

Pat Coleman, D3football.com executive editor
In a game filled with such unpredictability, including who will take snaps for either team, it’s hard to make a meaningful, informed prediction. In a game like this, you certainly lean on your defense, and you probably lean on your ground game. But it’s not like either backup quarterback is a pushover, as all Lee Brekke has done is go 4-0 and Matt Piloto certainly has standout skills for Mount Union. If it comes down to the running game, advantage UW-Whitewater. If it comes down to receivers against secondary, advantage Mount Union. If it comes down to pass rush, it’s a push. If it comes down to having faced and survived adversity in the playoffs, advantage UW-Whitewater. If it comes down … well, here’s my thing. I agree, like many, that Mount Union is playing better football right now. I just don’t know if that means much considering the opponents each has faced the past four weeks. And that’s my non-scientific reasoning for picking this score out of the hat.
UW-Whitewater 20, Mount Union 17

Keith McMillan, D3football.com managing editor
No reason to overthink this. A couple of things are going to be true no matter who triumphs. The best two teams in Division III, borne out on the field in five weeks of playoffs, are clashing Saturday. And each will be the best team the other has faced. That’s particularly true defensively when Mount Union is on the field against the Whitewater offense. That’s the unit the Purple Raiders have leaned on all season and it will be the one responsible for this game getting off to a slow start, scoring-wise. The winner over the five previous meetings has always scored in the 30s no matter how good the defenses looked coming in — the average score is 34-23.8 — but I think the Purple Raiders’ D holds the Warhawks in check for long enough to keep the 30s away. In the end, though, Saturday’s game follows the UW-W m.o.: Wear down a defense over the course of a game, and punish it with the running game in the fourth quarter. These Mount Union players will have their day — 28 of the 64 on the Stagg Bowl flipcard are sophomores, and will be back to Salem, undoubtedly — but Saturday will belong to those who win along the offensive and defensive lines most often, and best ‘Pound the Rock.’
UW-Whitewater 24, Mount Union 14

Gordon Mann, D3football.com deputy managing editor
While both teams have playmakers, this game comes down to the Purple powerhouses’ defenses. Both teams are too talented and too well coached for the offenses to light up the scoreboard. UW-Whitewater can generate a pass rush using its front four and has the depth to rotate different guys in for that cause. Keep an eye on freshman defensive end Loussiant Minett who has great speed around the edge. That lets the Warhawks linebackers drop back into coverage and support the secondary. Greg Arnold is a safety trapped in a small defensive end’s body or a very high level D3 linebacker — whichever you prefer. Mount Union is equally impressive up front with Lambert Budzinski. With a name like that, he was born to play defense. Both offensive lines are great, but I think the Warhawks’ line is better at doing what their offense wants to do — pound the ball with Coppage, Stanley and Anderson. The Mount offensive line gives the quarterback good protection, but I’m not sure the Purple Raiders quarterbacks can throw the ball down the field. Maybe Piloto has that ability. Or maybe Seaman does but hasn’t shown it much yet. The Warhawks don’t have anyone fast enough to stay with Shorts so he’ll get a lot of catches. But the Warhawks will tackle well enough to keep themselves from coming out on the Shorts end of the stick. Give the Warhawks the title, divide the game ball between the Warhawks front five, fire the cannon and we’ll go to a deciding seventh game next year.
UW-Whitewater 21, Mount Union 17

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com senior editor
This has been the hardest of the recent Stagg Bowls for me to come to a conclusion. But I keep coming back to the three-headed rushing beast that Whitewater has in the backfield. That notion bucks the trend of the past couple of meetings, when the games were won through big aerial performances. Yet with the Warhawks having such consistency on the ground (1,000 more yards rushing than passing this year) and Mount Union perhaps with a question under center, this will be one Stagg Bowl where we’ll see trench warfare unlike any other this season. I give the edge to Whitewater, which has a lot of power from Ustruck, Weber and Gawronski up front and may be a little of a lopsided matchup for the Mount defensive linemen not named Budzinski. That will define the game, but to be sure, we can expect a smattering of impressive and acrobatic downfield plays from Mount’s receiving corps and tight end (Shorts, Collins and Miller). They’ll play to Whitewater’s weaknesses in the secondary, but they won’t have enough for the win.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 20

Frank Rossi, D3football.com broadcaster
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: a team in purple will win. Hardy har, I know. However, this year, more than ever, it looks like we have two evenly matched finalists with potentially two backup quarterbacks leading their teams down the field. Mount Union seemed to be playing better football in the playoffs, but most agree that Whitewater’s opposition was slightly tougher with two games on the road. This one will be razor thin all game, with Mount Union coming out on top (and having to rely on a leg to create the difference).
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21

Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
So here we go again. Mount-Whitewater VI in a rivalry that has had more sequels than Rocky. This year’s meeting in Salem has a subplot dealing with who the heck will be starting a quarterback for BOTH teams on Saturday. The subtitle for Stagg Bowl XXXVIII should be Game Time Decision Bowl I. The winner of each game in this rivalry has scored at least 30 points. That streak will be broken Saturday.
UW-Whitewater 24, Mount Union 21

Dan Buckel, Mount Union public address announcer
I think this the most curious game of any of the previous UMU/UW-W match-ups. Purple Bowl VI comes down to defense, and in that area, I think Mount Union has the slightest edge. Mount Union’s run defense has been nearly impossible to penetrate, and Coppage with his great O-line will be their biggest challenge to date. I believe No. 33 will get some yards and maybe break a few good runs, however, will it be enough to keep from putting the game into the hands of Brekke? Blanchard, if available, changes everything. I think the MTU defense keeps Coppage under his average, and their pass D is very good. Which quarterback plays for Mount Union? Seaman has shown patience and ability to forget mistakes and get the job done, but will his ankle injury even allow him on the field or hold up if he starts? Piloto has a howitzer for an arm, but that does no good if he misses receivers. Shorts at QB out of a wildcat formation may offer some wrinkles. Mount has struggled at times to move the ball on the ground against good run defenses. They must get enough to keep UW-W defense honest. Both kicking games are very good. UW-W has shown some chinks in the pass defense, and if the Warhawks do not pressure the quarterback consistently with the front four, Mount will be very successful with two All-America-caliber receivers (Shorts and Miller) and three others that have very good speed and hands. Mount must keep their quarterback clean and he must be “on.” The Raiders must limit Warhawk ball control in order to win. I think this game is the closest of the Stagg Bowl contests.
Mount Union 24, UW-Whitewater 21

Jay Perkins, Uwwfootball.com
Purple Bowl VI represents an intriguing matchup, simply because there are dynamic contrasts between these two teams. Mount Union has blown away its opponents for nine straight weeks. The Raiders are young, fast, deep, athletic, and they execute brilliantly. Their defense has been dominant and their offense pretty close to it. UW-Whitewater has been challenged deep into games since the playoffs began. They have relied on a physical, punishing style to wear down their opponents and dominate at the end of the game. UW-Whitewater has experienced an elite defense in North Central and they have been road tested beating both the No. 5 Cardinals and No. 3 Wesley away from home. Cecil Shorts will most certainly make plays, but it will be a huge challenge for the young Raiders to hold up for 60 minutes against the senior laden Warhawk offensive line and defensive front seven. Team speed may well be Whitewater’s most underrated attribute. Four years in the UW-W program brings rare strength and speed for the D-III level. And this team loves to finish. A late turnover is the difference and UW-Whitewater wins another Stagg Bowl classic.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 27

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8 comments

  • Author comment by steelerbob · December 17, 2010 at 1:43 pm

    Very interesting predictions but predictable too… but good reading……experience means so much in games like this and in this case the field is tilted heavly to whitewater’s side……a 26 year old running back versus a quarterback starting his first game….game might be over before he gets comfortable……Whitewater can name their score….my GUESS is UWW 31 UMU 13 let’s hope for good football weather

  • Author comment by 02warhawk · December 17, 2010 at 3:21 pm

    wow steelerbob. as much as I would love to see your prediction come true, no way this is going to be over before it gets comfortable.

    the 26 year old may get get 4 or 5 carries the entire game. UWW’s QB has only started in 4 games himself..he’s no veteran himself.

    Mount still has the best athelete in all DIII, and nobody in a warhawk uniform will be able to cover him.

  • Author comment by warhawkpride · December 17, 2010 at 4:19 pm

    I’m going to have to agree with 02warhawk. I think Booker Stanley is a great back and given more reps in the 2nd half of the season may have helped him break out, but I think it’s not realistic to suggest that someone who may only play a series or two is going to have a major impact on the outcome of the game.

  • Author comment by uwwcannonman · December 17, 2010 at 5:59 pm

    There is no doubt that this will be an awesome game. Regardless of the outcome, rest assured the Cannon WILL be firing in Wisconsin. Let’s hope for a high scoring game. Want to clear out my powder stash in preparation for 2011. GO HAWKS!!!!! “BOOM!!!!!”

  • Author comment by GoCru · December 18, 2010 at 1:50 am

    UWW 21 MUC 17

    UWW wins 21-17 but UWW could win by 10 or more if Coppage gets going early.

  • Author comment by adamturer · December 18, 2010 at 9:38 am

    It’s rare and strange to think of UMU as an underdog, but as the predictions above indicate, UWW is the favorite. They have the experience and the edge up front. December games are almost always decided in favor of the team that can win in the trenches. I think the key for Mount Union will be how long their defense is on the field. The Purple Raiders have an offense that can strike quickly. UWW will get their yards. If UMU’s D can play bend-not-break, especially in the 2nd half, I think the Purple Raiders can pull it out. The Warhawks want to dominate ToP, but will need to find the endzone to capitalize on every long drive they put together. I’ll go against the grain and predict another high-scoring Stagg Bowl. Purple Raiders 35, Warhawks 34

  • Author comment by theraidervillager · December 18, 2010 at 10:10 am

    Predict, predict, predict…you can’t. The great Green Bay Packers(AFL) in the ’60s only had 10 plays unlike today’s teams and what made them great was execution of those plays. So no matter how good you think your team is, that’s the key to winning, PERIOD! The only thing that I have seen that UMU has done wrong was the QB waiting too long to throw the ball. Again, execution. Go Mount Union Raiders! And my prediction will be Mount by 3 over Whitewater

  • Author comment by trainer · December 18, 2010 at 2:43 pm

    Last week against Bethel was the first real good look I got at MUC. They were impressive and appeared to be firing on all cylinders at the right time. the defense was very fast but i wonder if Bethels one dimensional offense helped make them look even better. I see a lot of talk about UWW’s qb situation on the other side. When I saw them play NCC, I watched NCC march straight down the field and score first possession. The next possession was critical in my estimation for UWW. This backup QB threw 2 absolutely perfect passes to very well covered receivers covering about 80 yds and resulting in a big TD answer. I think without that answer (pure speculation) it would be very possible we wouldn’t be having another all purple Christmas. I guess what I am saying is that I don’t think UWW is hurting to bad with Brekke at QB, however I still predict MUC 24 to 17.

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