Week 12 is here, and if you’re anything like me, the annual let’s-all-start-at-noon 16-game smackdown is your favorite Saturday of the season. There are ECAC bowls and makeup games too, but in all honesty, the Walnut and Bronze is what we play (or watch) for, and one of the 32 teams in the field will be in Salem on Dec. 20 hoisting it.
You might not need an expert to tell you that the No. 1 team in the D3football.com Top 25 is expected to win it all. But expected outcomes in the first-round matchups are less certain, especially if your vision is clouded by the love of a particular team or the lack of knowledge of much outside your home conference.
It is with that in mind that Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps and I give you our playoff score predictions. These are not “lines,” and this is not a contest between the three of us. It’s an experiment in expectation vs. outcome.
Simply put, the three of us separately guesstimate what Saturday’s 16 final scores will be. In some cases, our expectations will be remarkably similar. In others, they’ll differ. Everything the three of us think will happen won’t, but at least you’ll know a stunning result when you see it.
MOUNT UNION (East) BRACKET
No. 8 Randolph-Macon at No. 1 Mount Union
Keith: Mount Union, 44-7
Ryan: Mount Union, 63-7
Pat: Mount Union, 63-6
No. 5 Lycoming at No. 4 Hobart
Keith: Lycoming, 13-12
Ryan: Lycoming, 24-14
Pat: Hobart, 14-10
No. 6 Plymouth State at No. 3 Cortland State
Keith: Cortland State, 24-13
Ryan: Cortland State, 31-17
Pat: Cortland State, 32-14
No. 7 Curry at No. 2 Ithaca
Keith: Ithaca, 42-21
Ryan: Ithaca, 42-13
Pat: Ithaca, 48-7
NORTH CENTRAL (North) BRACKET
No. 8 Thomas More at No. 1 North Central
Keith: North Central, 33-10
Ryan: North Central, 31-21
Pat: North Central, 45-14
No. 5 Franklin at No. 4 Otterbein
Keith: Otterbein, 30-27
Ryan: Otterbein, 37-14
Pat: Otterbein, 35-20
No. 6 Wabash at No. 3 Case Western Reserve
Keith: Case Western Reserve, 15-12
Ryan: Wabash, 34-28
Pat: Wabash, 35-28
No. 7 Wheaton at No. 2 Trine
Keith:Wheaton, 27-24
Ryan: Wheaton, 24-23
Pat: Wheaton, 38-21
WILLAMETTE (West) BRACKET
No. 2 Occidental at No. 1 Willamette
Keith: Willamette, 34-23
Ryan: Willamette, 31-17
Pat: Willamette, 41-27
No. 6 St. John’s at No. 5 UW-Whitewater
Keith: UW-Whitewater, 28-14
Ryan: UW-Whitewater, 17-13
Pat: UW-Whitewater, 24-14
No. 7 Wartburg at No. 4 UW-Stevens Point
Keith: UW-Stevens Point, 14-13
Ryan: Wartburg, 21-14
Pat: UW-Stevens Point, 17-3
No. 8 Aurora at No. 3 Monmouth
Keith: Monmouth, 38-20
Ryan: Monmouth, 42-31
Pat: Monmouth, 30-13
MILLSAPS (South) BRACKET
No. 8 LaGrange at No. 1 Millsaps
Keith: Millsaps, 49-17
Ryan: Millsaps, 45-10
Pat: Millsaps, 63-3
No. 6 Christopher Newport at No. 5 Washington & Jefferson
Keith: W&J, 28-21
Ryan: W&J, 34-31
Pat: W&J, 24-21
No. 7 Wesley at No. 4 Muhlenberg
Keith: Wesley, 21-20
Ryan: Wesley, 31-20
Pat: Wesley, 31-23
No. 3 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor
Keith: Hardin-Simmons, 20-18
Ryan: Hardin-Simmons, 27-24
Pat: Hardin-Simmons, 38-35
Anyone who wants to average the scores to come up with a composite “expectation,” go right ahead.
Guys: Thanks for taking the time to do this…..it will certainly create a lot of comments! Obviously, I disagree with your prediction on the Franklin vs. Otterbein game. Franklin’s reputation has primarily been on offense and with Chad Rupp and his numbers I understand that. In the last four weeks however, the Grizzly “D” has really stepped up. I have seen in those games a number of goal line stands, two of them on 1st and goals and just a different level of play from the defensive end and middle linebacker spots. On offense, aside from the passing numbers, the running back spot is more solid than it was early in the season. Losing R J Hartsfield, a DII rushing leader last last year, to graduation has meant using more backs and not being able to feature a particualr one. The result has been several guys have gotten a lot of experience and its beginning to show. Should be a very good game…what you’d expect from a 4-5 matchup. Looking for the GRIZ to come out on top!!
All I want to see is Trine crush Wheaton tomorrow because 12 wins in a row and two seasons of being undefeated at home still isn’t enough to pull the respect of at least one person at D3. I understand your reasoning behind the picks, but I just want Trine to surprise the hell out of everyone tomorrow, especially Pat. Pat you have been doubting them all year, and I see that continues as you picked it to not even be a close game. I understand that the playoffs is where it really counts, and tomorrow I hope and believe that they will show everyone how good they actually are.
Wow, only three games where we don’t have a consensus winner. I guess that’s not even as interesting as *all* of us going with HSU over UMHB. 🙂
For Trine and Wheaton I was just looking at common opponents and it’s really telling. Two straight weeks Hope played these two teams, both games at Hope even.
Wheaton 47, Hope 7
Trine 31, Hope 30
A couple things surprised me on the projections (in order of shock):
1. Cortland State and Ithaca not favored by more
2. HSU favored over MHB
3. Not at all surprised with Wheaton over Trine, but I’m am surprised how close the scores were projected. I’m thinking something much closer to a monkey stomp.
4. Lycoming over Hobart 2-1.
What I found interesting is that no one thinks that Muhlenberg will beat Wesley. If you look at the head to head statistics, these two teams are very evenly matched. The statement of a wobbly mule team is only because they lost a heartbreaking game against a very good Moravian team. They have played disciplined football all year. I think the Muhlenberg Wesley game is going to be very entertaining, with both teams having explosive offenses. I would be willing to bet that they will not be kicking or punting to Larry Beavers Saturday. He has 7 returns for TDs.
Here is a look at a Keith, Ryan, and Pat’s composite with some rounding off to “football score” type numbers:
EAST BRACKET
Mount Union 56
Randolph Macon 7
Lycoming 16
Hobart 13
Cortland State 28
Plymouth State 14
Ithaca 44
Curry 14
NORTH BRACKET
North Central 37
Thomas More 14
Otterbein 34
Franklin 20
Wabash 27
CWR 23
Wheaton 30
Trine 23
WEST BRACKET
Willamette 35
Occidental 21
UW-Whitewater 23
St. Johns 14
UW-Stevens Point 14
Wartburg 13
Monmouth 37
Aurora 21
SOUTH BRACKET
Millsaps 52
LaGrange 10
Washington and Jefferson 28
Christopher Newport 24
Wesley 27
Muhlenberg 21
Hardin-Simmons 28
Mary Hardin-Baylor 24
I don’ think Mount will run it up to sixty some on Randolph Macon…I will be surprised if they do….The question with Otterbein is which team shows up…
I’m rooting for them, but they were shaky against John Carroll..if they come out confident, I think they’ll win and they have to be better on D than last week as well…but I think you’ll know what kind of day its going to be by how the Cardinals come out and play early in the ball game…We’ll see if Hardin Simmons can live up to the projections…UMHB is a pretty proud program…they might go out in round one, but if they do, I don’t think they will go quietly…I predict if UMHB goes out in round 1 it will be in an overtime thriller…I also pick Case Western reserve to beat Wabash….
ahh the snow is falling in alliance ohio. goona be a cold game tomorrow and could hold down the scoring. 42-3………………..the mount………
With only 52 on the roster I don’t know if Mount Union will have as much ability to hold the score down. That was the thinking I was using.
I will say, being a Macalester fan, I will be the first to root against St. Thomas no matter whom they play.
That said, after the result of the St. John’s game and the way the standings may have ended, I think they deserved to get into this field. Blame the MIAC for failing.
Plus, there’s a little part of me that would want them to draw Mt Union in rd 1 and get crushed.
Of the eight teams in the NC Bracket, Franklin (27) has the most wins over the last three seasons, behind only NC and Wabash (28)…and lost to both of those teams last season (44-42 to NC on the last play of the first round playoff game, and by one point at Wabash in week 2) by a total of 3 points.
We can play with anyone, anywhere…and we WILL win tomorrow in a close game.
GO GRIZ!
Looks like its time for the guarantees to start flying…we’ve got our first with Griz guaranteeing a Franklin victory…..better watch out…a lot of crow gets eaten on these boards this time of year….Not saying Franklin can’t win, but all 3 D3 guys wouldn’t have picked Otterbein unless they had a few real good reasons to do so…
Griz, your stats against NC and Wabash dont mean a thing tomorrow….
You are correct! Nothing matters tomorrow except the two teams on the field.
I was just indicating the fact that I don’t think FC is getting a lot of respect…we have won a lot of games over the last three years….it will be a very good game.
Good luck to both teams!
I’m the one that opens the secret envelopes and compiles this. So I saw it and realized the Trine, Franklin, Muhlenberg and UMHB people weren’t going to be too happy. Those might all be toss-up games, and yet we all went the same way.
The thing to keep in mind is just because the three of us all picked the same way doesn’t mean we think your team has zero chance. If we all thought it was a 55%-45% toss-up, we’d still all pick the same team. I wouldn’t be stunned to see some of the teams I picked against win. In fact, I expect to be wrong on 2-6 of them (obviously I don’t know which or I would have picked the other way).
That’s part of the joy of the playoffs.
For Trine, the close scores and common opponent with Wheaton is one thing. Another is the MIAA vs. the CCIW No. 2. As far as a conference goes, no one is saying the MIAA can’t win … but would you stake your reputation on a conference whose champion had lost nine straight years in the first round? Would you buy a stock that had taken nine straight losses or would you wait for a sign of an uptick?
Just saying, there are a lot of reasons we could be making the picks we make. We have to stand by them, and that’s fine … they accomplish the goal of letting you know what the D3football.com team expects, regardless of seeds.
In my case, most of the toss-up games I gave pretty close scores. Pat is the opposite of me in that respect, he calls for serious beatdowns when he sees them.
The only close score that probably doesn’t indicate a 60-40 or 55-45 for me is UW-SP … I am fairly certain they will beat Wartburg, and win it close like they have every other game this season.
I had Mount calling off the dogs early. Macon’s style is to control the ball and the clock though, so if (when) they fall behind, it could speed the game along … or it could lead to them not being able to get first downs, etc.
I think if they can get a body on Kmic it will make a big diff. in the final score … Macon has a pretty decent tackling secondary, if I recall … so at least when he gets to the second level and runs guys over, it’ll be the run-over-but-I-held-on-to-his-leg instead of the run-over 62-yard score.
Maybe.
Trine I think goes in with more to prove as a team new to the postseason and new to being good.
HSU we probably just figured the first one was so close and UMHB is so banged up. Still dangerous.
Muhlenberg can definitely win. At home no less. But you gotta respect what Wesley has done the past few seasons and the firepower they bring to the table.
There are going to be two teams going out in the South’s first round that could’ve gone much further with different matchups. Same in the West’s upper half.
Anyway …
In the case of Plymouth State, Lyco & even R-MC, they’re built for the type of weather they’re going to have tomorrow, and also the type of game.
Actually, now that I think of it, it’s gonna be colder than (fill in blank) at at least 13 of the game sites tomorrow.
Sure hope I have a spot in a toasty press box.
Will visit the Franklin tailgate and take some guff for my pick.
Sorry … going into to MUC as a huge underdog. HSCoach, don’t you think the first series is key?
Can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen MUC score easy, or in the first 5 minutes of a game, and pysch a team out. The PRs are already going to be sharp, strong, tough and disciplined … but teams seem to get out of their comfort zone so quickly against them it’s not even like a game they’re used to playing.
Would be interesting to see how long R-MC could hang around if they could get a three-and-out or a couple first downs instead of a long Kmic TD run, Shorts TD catch or a fumbled punt snap returned for a TD in the first 5 minutes.
Pedro played at MUC when at Wheaton … Hopefully he can impart some of the ‘don’t be in awe’ knowledge on them.
My honest hope is that they get out of there with something they can take on the recruiting trail and say “Look, we did this against Mount Union, and if we had 10 more kids like you … “
Forecast for Alliance …Sat…. Partly Sunny highs around 30. West winds 10 – 15 mph…. Think I will stay home and listen to the game on the Net and watch the Replay on Sports Time Ohio. Go Raiders…..
Willamette will win its first three games. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Willamette goes to the final game.
This from a Linfield Wildcat.
Wow….absolutely no love for UMHB…
My comments:
1) Mt Union game closer than the experts (keith, ryan, pat) think but still a blowout (38-7).
2) Case and Franklin will not only beat but will whoop their opponents.
3) UMHB will win convincingly (more than 10 points).
Everything else looks spot on….cant wait until kickoff……
D3Keith: Ahhhhh…………I hate that I can’t be at the Franklin v. Otterbein game tomorrow! I have my 40th high school reunion tomorrow and I’d skip it if I was not one of the people responsible for organizing it, starting more than a year ago!! You and I have exchanged comments several times over the past few years and I have wanted to meet you in person!! Hopefully you can attend next week’s game wherever Franklin plays!!! I will be there!!
GO GRIZ!!!!
Interesting pick for the HSU – UMHB game. UMHB has played HSU twice in the preseason and won both….also UMHB has won 8 of the last 9 against HSU…I’d really be surprised if UMHB does not win this one as well…they are close to healthy for the first time this year…….
Should be interesting to see what kind of attendance the two WIAC teams get for their games. The weather forecast looks good (mid to high 30’s, sunny), but tomorrow is basically an unofficial holiday in Wisconsin – the start of the nine day gun deer hunting season. At the very least, there could be a lot of blaze orange and camo in the stands.
I’m looking forward to a great atmosphere here in Whitewater tomorrow. The visiting bleachers are closed, so Warhawk and Johnnie fans will get to share the 10,000 seats behind the UWW bench. Throw in some great tailgating and two solid teams with recent playoff history on the field, and we’ve got outselves a good show.
Prediction: UWW 20, SJU 13
Good luck and safe travels to everyone participating or attending the games tomorrow. Go Warhawks! And Badgers!…against Cal Poly!…to get into some obscure bowl game!…yeah, that pretty much sums up why I love DIII…
Keith,
I’ll check back with you after your boys get done tangling with Mount. I hope they come ready to play and play hard. It’s no fun to see a playoff team roll over. And it doesn’t provide any help for the Raiders get ready for future opponents.
The first drive is key to get the jitters out and to prove to yourself that you have a chance, but I honestly think the 2nd and 3rd drives are more important. There are tons of games where the opponent looked good for a drive or two, but couldn’t sustain the energy and precision to make it a real game. Otterbein falls into that category this season. Went the length of the field on their first possession, but couldn’t keep it up and was losing 35-13 at the half. Ball game over.
If your goal is to make Mount work for a quarter, then the first drive is key.
If your goal is to make Mount work for a half or more, you have to not let up after the first 5 minutes.
Mount 49
RMC 7
I agree with OLDsarge about the UMHB HSU game. Are you kidding me? How could you guys pick HSU? HSU hasn’t beat the Crusaders since 2004. This years game was close but UMHB fumbled twice inside the 20 and HSU scored on a fluke trick play that won’t happen again. UMHB also played with their 12th string running back. Ok…maybe 4th string. They are a completely different team from early October. UMHB will be in the 3rd round against Millsaps. Guaranteed.
D3RS,
We all know you will show up in force if Trine wins tomorrow. The question is will you return if Wheaton wins? See you tomorrow.
This is one of the most fun weekends of the year! I think it is funny that every year people act as if a Mt. Union championship is a foregone conclusion. Obviously it is not. In three of the past five years, they did not win the championship. They are not even the defending champions. Do they deserve respect? Yes. Are they unbeatable? Not even close. It will be a fun tournament. Let the pigskins fly!!
Its cold in Ithaca..Cortland area now but it will warm up to maybe 22 or 23 later
Whitewater sitting at 20 right now. Expected to be a high of 37 with light winds from 5-10 MPH. Great weather for Minnesota and Wisconsin teams to tangle!
I think Wabash vs CWRU will be a good rematch from a 2nd round game last year that Wabash ultimately won. While I don’t think Case will whoop Wabash it should be close.
Honestly I think Wabash will be hosting a home play-off game against Wheaton.
Never underestimate the heart of a Grizzly!
This is our time.
mille125, eh, you win some you lose some.
deer hunting season, hilarious, that is like a holiday!
re: the HSU pick, the injury factor and the weird loss to Southern Oregon and the closeness of the first game made that an upset I could see happening, and you know you have to pick some upsets.
I don’t think people do that. I think we assume they enter the playoffs as one of the teams to beat, and they’ll at least last until the semifinals.
For the past 15 years, that has been a foregone conclusion.
I think most Mount Union fans would even admit that a special team that plays its best game could beat MUC at some point. I know the Mount Union people each year reiterate that they enjoy each one separately and don’t take them for granted.
Killing time in the airport
I think pat & Ryan were 11-5 & I was 10-6 (they each won two of the split games, pat Hobart, Ryan wartburg & I lost to both on case. So I guess they were 12-4 then )
Just goes to show what fun this week is. Higher seeds only won 10 of 16 as well. What fun is a playoff without tossups & upsets?
Keith says:
“I don’t think people do that. I think we assume they enter the playoffs as one of the teams to beat, and they’ll at least last until the semifinals.
For the past 15 years, that has been a foregone conclusion.”
I do agree with this!
Keith also says:
“I think most Mount Union fans would even admit that a special team that plays its best game could beat MUC at some point. I know the Mount Union people each year reiterate that they enjoy each one separately and don’t take them for granted.”
Well, I would hope so. But this isn’t exactly a model of humility, is it? “A SPECIAL team that plays it’s BEST game COULD beat MUC at SOME POINT.”. Wow. My question is, could MOST ever admit that they didn’t have the best team in a particular year and would lose to a team over half the time even if they played that team 100 times (2007 for example)? It seems to me after last year’s Stagg Bowl, UWW got a lot of “best team THAT DAY” back handed compliments.
Glad to see that LaGrange was a little closer than you guys called it. Wish we hadn’t had so many critical injuries so early in the game. Might have been even closer.
The guys are already talking about what they need to do in the off-season to make an even better showing next year.
K, R, and P: Thanks for all you do for the sport.
Keith, just curious as to which MUC broadcasts you tuned into yesterday? WRMU or WDPN?